2021 DH (Pending)

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Soupbone

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#41

Posted: November 20, 2020, 12:05 PM

Posts: 119

Maybe we could get a computer to simulate hitting. That way no one would have to run and get hurt.

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sheetskout

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#42

Posted: November 26, 2020, 9:04 PM

Posts: 768

WV Brew said:

If there is a DH, Hiura should be the DH. If there is no DH, Hiura should be traded. His arm causes continual problems in the field. He makes errors by overcompensation and has trouble turning the double play.

Had a thread on this last year and was BLASTED. I like Hiura, but people were so in love with the bat they weren't seeing the rest of it.

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wallus

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#43

Posted: November 26, 2020, 11:25 PM

Posts: 1975

sheetskout said:

WV Brew said:

Had a thread on this last year and was BLASTED. I like Hiura, but people were so in love with the bat they weren't seeing the rest of it.

You were?

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=39282&hilit=hiura&start=20

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monty57

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#44

Posted: November 27, 2020, 8:57 AM

Global Moderator

Posts: 5890

I'd like to put a positive spin on Hiura's defense, but I can't.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=200&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&page=3_30

Out of 88 players who have a minimum of 200 innings at 2B in 2019-2020, Hiura is by far the worst defender. His defensive rating on Fangraphs is -10.4. The next worst is Ryan McMahon at -4.8 and Jose Altuve at -4.7.

Vogelbach is #24 out of 73 qualified 1B in the same time frame. He's not a great answer, but he's a much better defender at his position than Hiura. If we can find a solid 3b, I think we should move Urias to 2b and use Hiura as our main DH.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh

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sveumrules

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#45

Posted: November 27, 2020, 9:18 AM

Global Moderator

Posts: 3331

Hiura's fielding was always the big question mark, though "will he make enough contact?" has maybe overtaken the conversation at this point. Keston currently has 130 games & 1085 innings at second with metrics that look like this...

2019: 679 Innings | DRS: -5 | UZR: -8.2 | OAA: -9
2020: 406 Innings | DRS: -8 | UZR: -4.0 | OAA: -2

Two of the three had him less bad in 2020, but in samples that small there is a lot more noise. Around -11 to -13 for his career lines up with the eye test, but you can't get better without reps & 24 seems a little young to become a full time DH, so my best guess for 2021 is the Brewers will probably try to get Keston around 110 games at 2B & another 40 at DH, assuming that is an option.

Though If he can't figure out the approach/contact issues, the fielding stuff is all moot anyway.

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MrTPlush

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#46

Posted: November 27, 2020, 9:37 AM

Posts: 14081

Why have him waste time trying to be below average at fielding? No need to sugar coat it, Hirua is never going to be average at fielding. Why let it get in his head on the offensive side of the ball? He could be a real solid bat if he can figure it out. Problem is that bat was about as useful as a pool noodle for the majority of the year.

There probably isn't a player in baseball that is more a more obvious future DH.

Unfortunately we don't have a decent 2B replacement option. If Luis Urias would have been even remotely competent last year I bet this would be a done deal and Urias would take over 2B. As we know Urias was far from decent.

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sveumrules

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#47

Posted: November 27, 2020, 10:07 AM

Global Moderator

Posts: 3331

The reason you give him more opportunities to improve is because even with as bad as he's been at second, he's still provided more value than he would have as a full time DH.

BRef has Hiura at -13 fielding, +3 positional, (-10 total) for his career. The same number of PAs as a DH only would have netted him a -12 positional adjustment.

FanGraphs has a harsher DH penalty, so they've got Keston at -12.2 fielding, +0.8 positionsl (-11.4) for his career. The same number of PAs as a DH only would have netted him a -14 positional adjustment.

If he can improve to say a -5 fielder at 2B, that would be almost a full win more valuable than the same offensive production at DH.

I also think when the DH comes to the NL to stay that Stearns & company will prefer the additional flexibility provided by rotating guys through the spot over having a DH only type player on the roster.

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jerichoholicninja

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#48

Posted: November 27, 2020, 10:13 AM

Posts: 8963

Considering how few balls are put in play these days, defense has become almost irrelevant.

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MrTPlush

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#49

Posted: November 27, 2020, 10:17 AM

Posts: 14081

jerichoholicninja said:

Considering how few balls are put in play these days, defense has become almost irrelevant.

Hiura would know a thing or two about that first hand.

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monty57

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#50

Posted: November 27, 2020, 10:55 AM

Global Moderator

Posts: 5890

sveumrules said:

But everything is relative. If there is a DH, someone will be the DH, so that player will get the "negative positional adjustment." The goal would be to make the whole team better, not specifically one player. As I mentioned in my last post, Vogelbach is better at 1B than Hiura is at 2B, so if the option is for one of them to get the majority of reps at DH, I choose Hiura.

Your last sentence points to one option, but if they can have a regular DH who can mash, while allowing a semi-competent defender to play the field, that makes a lot of sense. Urias was seen as a plus defender at 2B. We could have good defense up the middle with Arcia at SS, Urias at 2B and Cain in CF.

Plus, as MrTPlush said, "why let the defense go to his head?" Hiura can focus on hitting, and Urias is a natural 2B, and switching positions may have effected him as well.

But first, we need to find a real third baseman. Until we get that, the point is moot.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh

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Brewers Numbers

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#51

Posted: November 27, 2020, 1:31 PM

Posts: 132

jerichoholicninja said:

Considering how few balls are put in play these days, defense has become almost irrelevant.

I would argue the opposite. With how few balls are in play good defense is amplified.

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JohnBriggs12

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#52

Posted: November 27, 2020, 6:15 PM

Posts: 12511

Brewers Numbers said:

jerichoholicninja said:

Considering how few balls are put in play these days, defense has become almost irrelevant.

I would argue the opposite. With how few balls are in play good defense is amplified.

I'm trying to wrap my head around that. How is good defense amplified when there are fewer chances? If 100 defensible balls are put into play, and the defense makes 90% of the plays, there are 10 that aren't made. If by striking out an additional 50 of those 100 with no defense involved, and the defense still makes 90% of the remaining defensible plays, then only 5 plays aren't made. So defense is minimized, not amplified.

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Brewers Numbers

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#53

Posted: November 27, 2020, 7:52 PM

Posts: 132

JohnBriggs12 said:

Brewers Numbers said:

jerichoholicninja said:

Considering how few balls are put in play these days, defense has become almost irrelevant.

I would argue the opposite. With how few balls are in play good defense is amplified.

The decrease in balls in play isn't because of strikeouts solely. It's also the result of pitchers inducing flyouts/groundouts and an increase in home runs. Even if in the shift a player still has to be able to make the play.

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MrAllen

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#54

Posted: November 27, 2020, 8:20 PM

Posts: 1363
Location: Baltimore, MD

Flyouts/groundouts, including those hit to fielders in the shift, are all balls in play... I suppose you could argue with more homeruns that it's more important to make outs when given the opportunity so there are fewer players on base to score, but I'm guessing the increase in strikeouts nullifies that take pretty easily.

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Brewers Numbers

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#55

Posted: November 27, 2020, 9:29 PM

Posts: 132

Sorry, my response did switch to BABIP. I can't defend my amplified statement though I still believe good defense is important.

In 2019 per team per game the average number of ABs was 34.30, the average number of SOs was 8.81, the average number of HRs was 1.39, and the average number of SFs was 0.24. So the average number of BIPs was 24.34. All from https://www.baseball-reference.com/leag ... /bat.shtml. For reference in 1999, the average number of BIPS was 27.17.

That means on average the quality of defense comes into play 24.34 times per game.

If a team was able to reduce the BIPs by half through strikeouts that would be an average of 20.98 strikeouts per game.

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sheetskout

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#56

Posted: December 03, 2020, 10:03 AM

Posts: 768

wallus said:

sheetskout said:

WV Brew said:

Had a thread on this last year and was BLASTED. I like Hiura, but people were so in love with the bat they weren't seeing the rest of it.

You were?

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=39282&hilit=hiura&start=20

(Threads can be on different mediums most notably and recently Twitter)

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djoctagone

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#57

Posted: December 17, 2020, 8:50 AM

Roster Guru

Posts: 3373

wow. i really like this suggestion of eliminating the dh once the starting pitcher is pulled.

i think the only instance where i wouldn't like this idea would be having to scrap the dh if a starting pitcher left early due to an injury. a single injury shouldn't force two players from the game.

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Ron Robinson's Beard

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#58

Posted: December 17, 2020, 8:53 AM

Posts: 1995

djoctagone said:

I like the idea on its own merits, but I doubt that there is any chance that the MLB Player's Association is going to accept a rule that cuts a player's at-bats in half.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs

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JohnBriggs12

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#59

Posted: December 17, 2020, 9:05 AM

Posts: 12511

Ron Robinson's Beard said:

djoctagone said:

I like the idea on its own merits, but I doubt that there is any chance that the MLB Player's Association is going to accept a rule that cuts a player's at-bats in half.

But it also gives guys on the bench more AB's as once the starting pitcher is pulled, pinch hitters essentially will take 95% of the AB's in that spot in the lineup.

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Ron Robinson's Beard

Re: 2021 DH (Pending)

#60

Posted: December 17, 2020, 9:16 AM

Posts: 1995

JohnBriggs12 said:

Ron Robinson's Beard said:

djoctagone said:

I like the idea on its own merits, but I doubt that there is any chance that the MLB Player's Association is going to accept a rule that cuts a player's at-bats in half.

But it also gives guys on the bench more AB's as once the starting pitcher is pulled, pinch hitters essentially will take 95% of the AB's in that spot in the lineup.

True, but I doubt that it will significantly drive up the salaries of bench bat-types, while it would theoretically drastically reduce the earning power of DH-types. In the end, the decision is going to be determined by money.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs

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