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two arbitration-eligble players (including josh hader)

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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#21

Posted: November 17, 2020, 10:27 AM Post
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djoctagone said:
the deadline to protect players from the rule 5 draft is friday.

will the club open up additional spots by outrighting any of the arbitration-eligible players off the 40-man ahead of that deadline?


I think Peterson is likely gone. Claudio may be as well. Every other guy on that list (sans Healy, who is already gone) is probably a lock. I think they try to deal Knebel, rather than outright him.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#22

Posted: November 17, 2020, 10:34 AM Post
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Hard to predict anything for next year. Hader, Woodruff are the only 100% locks to get tendered a contract. Narvaez is probably almost a lock...but never know. Who knows what they do with the filler garbage like Vogelbach/Healy/Peterson/Arcia. With the low payroll they may keep a few of those guys.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#23

Posted: November 17, 2020, 10:42 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Hard to predict anything for next year. Hader, Woodruff are the only 100% locks to get tendered a contract. Narvaez is probably almost a lock...but never know. Who knows what they do with the filler garbage like Vogelbach/Healy/Peterson/Arcia. With the low payroll they may keep a few of those guys.


Vogelbach wasn't exactly garbage in a Brewer uniform. Assuming they keep the DH, he's penciled in that spot. Arcia was their best offensive player vis a vis his expectations and is still by far their best defensive infielder. Arcia had exactly one fewer extra base hits than Hiura in almost 60 fewer PA. No chance those guys get non-tendered. Peterson is a guy that they could get back for a minor league deal. If not him, there's a couple dozen similar types who'll be out there.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#24

Posted: November 17, 2020, 11:21 AM Post
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Woodruff and Hader are indeed the locks. One of Narvaez and Piña (Most likely Narvaez) should be almost certain. Vogelbach would seem sensible to keep if there is a DH. I expect the rest to be non-tendered, or possibly signed to cheaper deals before the deadline. I don't see the Brewers paying Arcia $3-4m or Knebel $5m.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#25

Posted: November 17, 2020, 12:38 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Hard to predict anything for next year. Hader, Woodruff are the only 100% locks to get tendered a contract. Narvaez is probably almost a lock...but never know. Who knows what they do with the filler garbage like Vogelbach/Healy/Peterson/Arcia. With the low payroll they may keep a few of those guys.

Healy was sent to AAA and he elected minor league free agency.

My guess, they tender Hader, Woodruff, and Narvaez and maybe Pina. Unless they can reduce the salary by enough through a contract, and that has a big caveat, everyone else is traded or non-tendered. The caveat is there is a clause in the CBA that limits how much they can reduce a salary by, which is 20% of the previous year's salary or 30% of the previous 2 years' salary. So with someone like Knebel they would still have to pay ~$4M which I don't think they do. I don't remember if it was here, Twitter, or somewhere else I saw this but for Knebel to come back with a $1M salary he would have to be non-tendered and become a free agent first.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#26

Posted: November 17, 2020, 12:38 PM Post
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I don't see any trade value in a $5 million dollar Knebel, don't think he gets tendered. I would guess 3 more spots open up with non tenders.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#27

Posted: November 18, 2020, 8:18 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
MrTPlush said:
Hard to predict anything for next year. Hader, Woodruff are the only 100% locks to get tendered a contract. Narvaez is probably almost a lock...but never know. Who knows what they do with the filler garbage like Vogelbach/Healy/Peterson/Arcia. With the low payroll they may keep a few of those guys.


Vogelbach wasn't exactly garbage in a Brewer uniform. Assuming they keep the DH, he's penciled in that spot. Arcia was their best offensive player vis a vis his expectations and is still by far their best defensive infielder. Arcia had exactly one fewer extra base hits than Hiura in almost 60 fewer PA. No chance those guys get non-tendered. Peterson is a guy that they could get back for a minor league deal. If not him, there's a couple dozen similar types who'll be out there.


The DH makes Vogelbach marginally valuable to the Brewers. Mostly because he will be dirt cheap. While he was decent with the Brewers for a week or two he isn't really that good. I would label him a worse version of Eric Thames.

But...we are going to be cheap this offseason and a half competent bat in the DH spot is probably all we can really hope to afford anyway.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#28

Posted: November 18, 2020, 10:56 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
The DH makes Vogelbach marginally valuable to the Brewers. Mostly because he will be dirt cheap. While he was decent with the Brewers for a week or two he isn't really that good. I would label him a worse version of Eric Thames.

But...we are going to be cheap this offseason and a half competent bat in the DH spot is probably all we can really hope to afford anyway.


Pretty much agree with that.

Vogelbach will only hit around .200-.210, but he takes walks, so his OBP should be around .330, and he has some power, hitting 30 HR in his only full season (2019 in Seattle). He shouldn't play defense, and he will strike out about 1/4 of his PAs, but he should be a slightly above-average bat if we have a DH this year. He had a 111 wRC+ in 2019, surrounded by 98 wRC+ numbers in his partial seasons in 2018 & 2020.

Plus, he's cheap. He's a "filler" player, not a "core" player, but getting positive value out of inexpensive guys could give Stearns some extra cash to find a good corner IF.

All bets are off if the NL doesn't have a DH. Vogelbach should not be our everyday first baseman. His poor defense pretty much negates his positive offensive value.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#29

Posted: December 01, 2020, 6:55 AM Post

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tomorrow is the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#30

Posted: December 01, 2020, 9:16 PM Post
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Orlando Arcia is 135 plate appearances away from being guaranteed a spot on the Brewers Wall of Honor.

That will likely not make any difference whether they decide to tender him a contract, but I kind of hope it does, and I'd like them to move on.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#31

Posted: December 02, 2020, 12:22 AM Post
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Given that we’ve put up with Fielder at 1b and Weeks, scooter, and Hiura at 2b, I think we can tolerate Vogelbach’s defense if need be


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#32

Posted: December 02, 2020, 2:07 AM Post
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Vogelbach should be an interesting decision. That 162 OPS+ sure was shiny, but it was only 67 PAs. He also sported a 31 OPS+ in 69 PAs with SEA/TOR. Add it all up & you get a 98 OPS+ in 136 PAs on the season.

Coming into 2020, ZiPS had him projected for a 121 OPS+, which I would guess will likely slide some for 2021, down to maybe around 115. It's one thing to get bad defense at 1B with a 143 OPS+ like Prince had, but it hurts a lot more when that OPS+ is 25-30 points lower.

At the same time, we don't really have any other options on hand & his Arby's estimate is only around 1-2 million, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers tender him.

Then again, with how much Stearns & company value positional flexibility, the uncertainty over the DH and limited funds to work with - there are some factors working against him.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#33

Posted: December 02, 2020, 8:53 AM Post
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monty57 said:
All bets are off if the NL doesn't have a DH. Vogelbach should not be our everyday first baseman. His poor defense pretty much negates his positive offensive value.


I'll backtrack on this a little, only because Hiura is so bad defensively. If there is a DH in the NL, Vogelbach could be a relatively cheap option to play first, allowing Hiura to DH, with Urias moving to 2B. The money saved by going with Vogelbach at first might help them find a decent third baseman.

However, if there is no DH, a right side of the infield with Hiura at 2B and Vogelbach at 1B would be pretty awful defensively.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#34

Posted: December 02, 2020, 9:09 AM Post
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A couple unverified rumors floating around the Twittersphere are indicating that the Brewers have signed Vogelbach to a 1-year deal between $1.2 and $1.5 million.

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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#35

Posted: December 02, 2020, 9:27 AM Post
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JimH5 said:
Orlando Arcia is 135 plate appearances away from being guaranteed a spot on the Brewers Wall of Honor.

That will likely not make any difference whether they decide to tender him a contract, but I kind of hope it does, and I'd like them to move on.


I have mocked this "Wall of Honor" since it was created but if that's true, and I have no reason not to believe you, that just further goes to show what a joke it is.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#36

Posted: December 02, 2020, 9:56 AM Post
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The Wall of Honor is filled with average players, Arcia doesn't lower the bar. 2,000 plate appearances is fairly easy to reach relatively speaking.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#37

Posted: December 02, 2020, 10:07 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
JimH5 said:
Orlando Arcia is 135 plate appearances away from being guaranteed a spot on the Brewers Wall of Honor.

That will likely not make any difference whether they decide to tender him a contract, but I kind of hope it does, and I'd like them to move on.


I have mocked this "Wall of Honor" since it was created but if that's true, and I have no reason not to believe you, that just further goes to show what a joke it is.


I'm basing my post on an online search and the criteria cited for honorees. Everything that I found shows it to be pretty unambiguous. The criteria are:

2,000 or more plate appearances
1,000 or more innings pitched
250 appearances as a pitcher
Winner of a major award (MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, or Fireman of the Year)
Manager of a pennant-winning team
Individuals recognized with a statue on the Miller Park Plaza
Members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame who have played for the Brewers


Arcia is sitting on 1865 plate appearances, so even if he's a part time player next year, he should easily qualify.

If he gets a plaque, I guess it's not the worst thing in the world. But it would show what a long leash they have given to a player who has underperformed. It has been a Milt Mason-like experience, waiting for him to blossom.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#38

Posted: December 02, 2020, 10:26 AM Post
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To be fair, the Brewers probably brought Arcia up too early because of need. As frustrating as his tenure has been, I don’t see a comparable priced upgrade.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#39

Posted: December 02, 2020, 10:39 AM Post
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CheeseheadInQC said:
To be fair, the Brewers probably brought Arcia up too early because of need. As frustrating as his tenure has been, I don’t see a comparable priced upgrade.


It really is hard to believe he's still only 26. He DID perform much better with the bat in 2020, which is all the more frustrating that his defense simultaneously wasn't good in 2020 for no apparent reason.


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Offline  Re: 10 arbitration-eligble players on current roster
#40

Posted: December 02, 2020, 10:49 AM Post
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Yeah. SS has definitely been the biggest organizational black hole since Stearns & company took over.

Given the circumstances I can kind of understand how Arcia has gotten the leash he has. 2016 was the get your feet wet year. 2017 was perfectly cromulent (90 OPS+, 2.2 WAR). 2018 was bad, but he was only 23 & ended the season strong. 2019 was worse so they brought in Urias for 2020, but he broke his hamate & got the covid.


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