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Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects

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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#41

Posted: December 29, 2020, 10:38 AM Post
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Probably a deal that makes some sense for both sides, but I'm going to hate watching Davies pitch for the Cubs in '21 more than I hated watching Darvish pitch for them in '20.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#42

Posted: December 29, 2020, 10:40 AM Post
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monty57 said:
sveumrules said:
Only Cubs with guaranteed deals for 2022 are Heyward (22), Hendriks (14) & Bote (2.5) million.

Will be interesting to see if they maybe deal Bryant, bring back Lester/Quintana with the saved cash & make one last kinda sorta go for it year, or if they just decide to burn the whole thing to the ground.

Voting for plan B, obvs.


Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do. Cots has their estimated payroll for 2021 at $127,802,500, and Bryant (proj $19M), Baez (proj $11.25M), Rizzo ($16.5M), and Davies (proj $9M) will all be free agents after this season. The Darvish trade certainly looks like a rebuilding move, and all I can say is that if they go into a rebuild, it's going to be a big one.


It probably makes the best sense to pick one of Baez or Rizzo to keep and rebuild around, then trade off the rest to rebuild the farm system before losing them all as free agents.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#43

Posted: December 29, 2020, 12:28 PM Post
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Good for the Padres for doing something but how often does the super team that wins the offseason wind up doing anything? After all this are they even better than the Dodgers on paper?


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#44

Posted: December 29, 2020, 12:49 PM Post
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It's probably just my own selection bias, but does it ever end with player "values" wildly oscillating based solely on whether they happen to be Brewers players or players of a chosen genius franchise like the Cubs?

Luis Urias is considered an elite prospect... until he's traded to the Brewers and then he is chopped liver.

Zach Davies is a middling piece from a Brewers starting rotation that is supposed to be a laughing stock... and now that he is on the Cubs sites are declaring that he will "look good alongside Kyle Hendricks as the Cubs’ one-two in 2021." Because of <70 IP with a 3.88 FIP in 2020, or because he's no longer a Brewer?

The Rodney Dangerfield of MLB franchises - no respect!


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#45

Posted: December 29, 2020, 12:53 PM Post
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The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#46

Posted: December 29, 2020, 12:59 PM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
Good for the Padres for doing something but how often does the super team that wins the offseason wind up doing anything? After all this are they even better than the Dodgers on paper?


No, not with Clevinger missing 2021 following his TJ surgery.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres
#47

Posted: December 29, 2020, 3:33 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
homer said:
Cubs cutting payroll. hilarious


Since buying the Cubs, the Ricketts family has done nothing but throw money at renovating Wrigley Field and buying/redeveloping property surrounding it to try and maximize gameday revenues - they had to refinance most of that development in 2019. This was all done under the assumption that it would quickly pay for itself with sold out stadiums and plenty of festivities happening even in the offseason for people to frequent and spend their money.

The Cubs are a huge market with their own sports network/TV deal as of 2020, but the amount of $ it took to get them set up that way definitely has their day to day business operations desperate for the revenue streams it projected from fans on gameday. Those revenue streams just aren't going to come fast enough for them to justify not slashing player payroll as well - the fact they are willing to deal their best pitcher from last season because he was still under a big contract and consider resigning Lester coming off the end of his bloated contract and buying him out for $10M because he would cost much less longterm tells you everything you need to know about what their balance sheet looks like headed into 2021. They've also laid off over 100 employees in baseball/business ops in the past year.


They are literally using their MLB profits to pay off their real estate debt. Not even trying to hide it. And we wonder why MLBPA is livid at the owners right now?

On top of that, they have outraged a huge portion of their fanbase by moving TV broadcasts to an RSN which was a major reason Len Kasper jumped to the White Sox, who happen to be on the verge of being a serious playoff contender while the Cubs are tanking.

Couldn't happen to a better organization...let the schadenfreude flow.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres
#48

Posted: December 29, 2020, 5:09 PM Post
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owbc said:
They are literally using their MLB profits to pay off their real estate debt. Not even trying to hide it. And we wonder why MLBPA is livid at the owners right now?

On top of that, they have outraged a huge portion of their fanbase by moving TV broadcasts to an RSN which was a major reason Len Kasper jumped to the White Sox, who happen to be on the verge of being a serious playoff contender while the Cubs are tanking.

Couldn't happen to a better organization...let the schadenfreude flow.



In fairness to the Cubs (a phrase I never thought I would say), they can't exactly air night games on WGN America anymore.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#49

Posted: December 29, 2020, 5:33 PM Post
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owbc said:
The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.


And yet 2 teams can make the playoffs. Make a mockery of the added playoff teams. Tank and get in. Draft high. Maybe luck in upset the Padres or Dodgers in a 3 game series. Seriously want to root for 70s win division winner and wild card team like the NFC East being won at 6 or 7wins. Just in time to bargain a new CBA.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#50

Posted: December 29, 2020, 7:03 PM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
owbc said:
The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.


And yet 2 teams can make the playoffs. Make a mockery of the added playoff teams. Tank and get in. Draft high. Maybe luck in upset the Padres or Dodgers in a 3 game series. Seriously want to root for 70s win division winner and wild card team like the NFC East being won at 6 or 7wins. Just in time to bargain a new CBA.


Its back to pitchers hitting in the NL & a total of 5 playoff teams for 2021 unless another 1 off agreement is made between the owners & MLBPA...


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#51

Posted: December 30, 2020, 7:59 AM Post
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owbc said:
The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.


With the way the Central looks, and the number of unsigned free agents sitting out there, I wonder how tempted Attanasio is to make some moves like they did with Moose and Grandal. I'd guess a lot of players will be willing to sign one-year deals to get them through this offseason and onto next year with a new CBA and (hopefully) no Covid concerns.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#52

Posted: December 30, 2020, 11:54 AM Post
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it would make sense for the players, after the new CBA, there should be more potential to sign a larger deal to sign a 1 year deal. It is a risk, since you are betting on something that is unclear rather than taking the guaranteed money up front. Once fans are in the stands again I think owners will be more apt to spend anyway.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#53

Posted: December 30, 2020, 12:54 PM Post
Posts: 1274
SRB said:
It's probably just my own selection bias, but does it ever end with player "values" wildly oscillating based solely on whether they happen to be Brewers players or players of a chosen genius franchise like the Cubs?

Luis Urias is considered an elite prospect... until he's traded to the Brewers and then he is chopped liver.

Zach Davies is a middling piece from a Brewers starting rotation that is supposed to be a laughing stock... and now that he is on the Cubs sites are declaring that he will "look good alongside Kyle Hendricks as the Cubs’ one-two in 2021." Because of <70 IP with a 3.88 FIP in 2020, or because he's no longer a Brewer?

The Rodney Dangerfield of MLB franchises - no respect!



Yes, and I believe it’s even more acute when it comes to prospects. We have had Peter Gammons in Boston; Jayson Stark in Philly; Olney, Joel Sherman and a slew of others in New York etc. They tend to get very myopic with the prospects in their markets and then have a national stage to tout the prospects. As a result, prospects from those organizations get a lift.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#54

Posted: December 30, 2020, 2:30 PM Post
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owbc said:
The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.


The Brewers might just be the favorites in the division by not holding a fire sale.

Remember not too long ago when there was a worry that the Brewers just couldn't compete with the imminent Cubs and Cardinals dynasties?


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#55

Posted: December 30, 2020, 6:34 PM Post
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Brewers have a very good chance to win the NL Central this upcoming season. A lot hinges on what they do with the corner infield spots of course (And whatever moves, whether addition or subtraction, happens around the division), but honestly even with the rosters they are right now, I'd give the Brewers a good chance. Brewers pitching last year was very good; only 11th going by ERA-, but tied for 2nd in FIP- and T-1st for xFIP-. Combine that with the joint highest groundball % and the lowest exit velocity allowed (And Statcasts xwOBA says the same thing), and you'd expect good things going forward. Some better defense would help too. I think that pitching gives the team a very good foundation to build off, so with how mediocre the division looks in general, it should be possible to find enough offensive upgrades even on a budget to challenge.

The Cards should still be pretty good (They almost always are), but the Cubs have an enormous amount of work to do on their pitching. Beyond Hendricks and Davies they have almost no quality or depth in their rotation. Their starting lineup still looks decent, but we should expect some more subtraction and even right now they have no depth. The Reds' offense sucks, and while I expect their pitching to stil be good, losing Bauer and Iglesias (And possibly even Gray if rumours are to be believed) is going to hurt.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#56

Posted: December 30, 2020, 7:51 PM Post
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Brewers as of today in 2021

C Narvaez = Wash...Hoping he can be better than last year with the bat, which is why I graded him a wash. If he struggles, he is a big Negative.
1B Vogelbach = Negative (I can't believe this is what we roll with...)
2B Hiura = ? (wonder what we get from this guy...he will never have value defensively, so he better bring his offense up a couple notches from last year)
SS Arcia= Negative (I don't believe that 2020 is the real Arcia, nor should anyone else, we've seen this cat before and it always fades)
3B Urias (?) = Negative
RF Garcia = Negative (big let down last year with no signs of the guy we thought we were getting, which was probably average at best)
CF Cain = Wash, great defense, who knows what we will see offensively.
LF Yelich = Positive (I refuse to believe we see 2020 Yelich, might not see 2018-19 Yelich, but it will surely be better than 2020)

That offense, as it sits, has no chance of winning the divsion... It just doesn't. In fact, it's depressing to see it in woirds. Seriously, look at that offense, disturbing.

Pitching alone doesn't win championships, we have to be able to score runs consistantly, and that offense will not get it done.

I truly hope we get ourselves a real bonified 1B and 3B. If not, it will be a long season in 2021.


Last edited by turborickey on December 30, 2020, 10:59 PM, edited 1 time in total.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#57

Posted: December 30, 2020, 9:03 PM Post
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I don't even know what the Wash/Negative/Positive is in relation to? Comparing the positions to 2020? Compared to replacement level? Compared to league average? Compard to the rest of the NLC?

That offense has career wRC+ of 108, 103, 117, 71, 75, 102, 106 and 135. Equally weighted, that's an average of 102. That's more than last years NLC division winner had. Now of course career average isn't the same as what they'll do next year. I think it's reasonable to expect some to do better than that (Urias is my main bet) and some to do worse (Cain being the obvious one). But even so, take a projection system like ZiPS and it projects the offense (OPS+ instead of wRC+, but they're usually extremely close) as: 94, 112, 102, 80, 90, 98, 92, 135. For an average of 100. Still better than last years NLC winner.

Of course this takes into account neither the bench players or any eventual signings, and it's an overly simplified analysis. But you're simply reading way too much into the very small and, due to the circumstances, very weird sample of 2020 baseball, and taking the most negative outcome from it. I certainly don't disagree with needing big improvements at 1B and 3B, but the team is in a far better position relative to the division than most fans seem to realise. That's a sad indictment of the division at the moment more than this team being good, but as far as dvision standings go only the relative, not absolute, quality of the teams matter.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#58

Posted: January 05, 2021, 8:40 AM Post
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turborickey said:
Brewers as of today in 2021

C Narvaez = Wash...Hoping he can be better than last year with the bat, which is why I graded him a wash. If he struggles, he is a big Negative.
1B Vogelbach = Negative (I can't believe this is what we roll with...)
2B Hiura = ? (wonder what we get from this guy...he will never have value defensively, so he better bring his offense up a couple notches from last year)
SS Arcia= Negative (I don't believe that 2020 is the real Arcia, nor should anyone else, we've seen this cat before and it always fades)
3B Urias (?) = Negative
RF Garcia = Negative (big let down last year with no signs of the guy we thought we were getting, which was probably average at best)
CF Cain = Wash, great defense, who knows what we will see offensively.
LF Yelich = Positive (I refuse to believe we see 2020 Yelich, might not see 2018-19 Yelich, but it will surely be better than 2020)

That offense, as it sits, has no chance of winning the divsion... It just doesn't. In fact, it's depressing to see it in woirds. Seriously, look at that offense, disturbing.

Pitching alone doesn't win championships, we have to be able to score runs consistantly, and that offense will not get it done.

I truly hope we get ourselves a real bonified 1B and 3B. If not, it will be a long season in 2021.


I don't think it's nearly as bad as you do, but I agree on 3b & 1b being problems (I consider Urias our everyday SS).

Garcia, Urias, Narvaez and obviously Yelich are the guys I'm looking at to step up in addition to (hopefully) getting competent 1b and 3b.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#59

Posted: January 05, 2021, 8:50 AM Post
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Garcia was such a non-factor last season. Just a blah player in the daily line-up.

He has to be better than 2020, right?

I sure hope so, but I have no confidence in the guy.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#60

Posted: January 05, 2021, 9:20 AM Post
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turborickey said:
Garcia was such a non-factor last season. Just a blah player in the daily line-up.

He has to be better than 2020, right?

I sure hope so, but I have no confidence in the guy.


I think this is part of it. Last year so many guys left a sour taste in my mouth that I am down on almost everyone. I keep telling myself...no way they can be as bad as last year. Hopefully that becomes true.


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