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Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects

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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#21

Posted: December 28, 2020, 9:22 PM Post
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As much as I’d love to dunk on the Cubs for this trade, every fan base in the NL Central may be living in a proverbial “glass house” whether they know it or not yet.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#22

Posted: December 28, 2020, 9:23 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
For anyone expecting a Gavin Lux type return for Hader, the Padres just managed to land Yu Darvish without giving up anyone in their organizational top 10 (though admittedly it's a loaded farm)


Also, Darvish is owed around $60 million for the next three seasons.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#23

Posted: December 28, 2020, 9:32 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
For anyone expecting a Gavin Lux type return for Hader, the Padres just managed to land Yu Darvish without giving up anyone in their organizational top 10 (though admittedly it's a loaded farm)


I think anyone expecting a Lux type player in a Hader deal was always setting themselves up for disappointment, but Josh should return a better package than Darvish if dealt.

Yu at 3/59 for his age 34, 35 & 36 seasons takes a lot of teams out of the bidding. With very few organizations looking to take on notable payroll this winter, I wouldn't be surprised if the Padres were the only organization to make a serious offer.

Hader at say 3/30 tops in Arby's for his age 27, 28, 29 seasons probably fits into a few more teams' budgets & should hopiefully inspire more competitive bidding.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#24

Posted: December 28, 2020, 9:50 PM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
adambr2 said:
For anyone expecting a Gavin Lux type return for Hader, the Padres just managed to land Yu Darvish without giving up anyone in their organizational top 10 (though admittedly it's a loaded farm)


Also, Darvish is owed around $60 million for the next three seasons.


That doesn't help. But Hader is going to be rather expensive (as relievers go) himself the next 3 years, and obviously isn't as valuable as an ace.

Also, the Cubs are picking up some of Darvish's salary, so it's not $60 million owed by the Padres.


Last edited by adambr2 on December 28, 2020, 9:55 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#25

Posted: December 28, 2020, 9:51 PM Post
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I don't think it was a bad deal for the Cubs at all. Darvish had a nice 12 start stretch in 2020, but overall as a Cub he was 15-14 with a 3.60 ERA and he's 34. Over his last couple years Davies is 17-11 with and ERA in the low 3's. Davies has been one of the more reliable pitchers in the NL since he came to the Brewers in 2015 going 50-36. Davies has made 9 starts at Wrigley and is 4-3 with a 3.70. Davies isn't chopped liver by any means even if David Stearns didn't seem value him very highly when he traded him to San Diego.

Davies has often been compared to Hendricks. He throws a bit harder, but with a similar thinking mans approach and coolness.

Add in the young players in the deal, I give the Cubs the edge for the long term certainly, and they've freed up cash they will likely use to add yet another starter.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#26

Posted: December 28, 2020, 9:54 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
As much as I’d love to dunk on the Cubs for this trade, every fan base in the NL Central may be living in a proverbial “glass house” whether they know it or not yet.


Something else to consider is that since 2016 (Davies first full season/Darvish's first season back from TJ), Zach has posted an 88 ERA- compared to an 82 ERA- for Yu, so the difference in production for 2021 likely won't be as big as their names might lead one to believe.

The things that make me feel somewhat re-assured about the Brewers relative to their NLC counterparts is (A) they have the lost the least production from 2020 comparatively & (2) Hader is the only big 2021 contributor who is really a trade possibility, & if he does get dealt it will be from an area of depth with a likely eye towards acquiring players who can help at positions with more pressing need.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#27

Posted: December 28, 2020, 9:56 PM Post
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wallus said:
Head over to NSBB if you want to read some quality meltdowns.

Oh wow, some of their posters thought they were going to get both Campusano and Cronenworth... plus even more. Others were disappointed with that idea and wanted Gore or Abrams included.

That would certainly be quite the let down.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#28

Posted: December 28, 2020, 10:09 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
That doesn't help. But Hader is going to be rather expensive (as relievers go) himself the next 3 years, and obviously isn't as valuable as an ace.


Is Yu really an ace though?

Sure, he pitched like one (221 ERA+) for 76 IP in 2020, but in 2019 he only posted a 110 ERA+ in 178 IP, finishing 43rd by FIP based WAR & 31st by runs allowed based WAR out of 75 pitchers with at least 150 IP. In 2018 he was hurt & only threw 40 IP with an 85 ERA+.

Add it all up & ZiPS projects him for 150 IP with a 120 ERA+ (3.2 WAR) in 2021, which is more of a solid #2.

The only time in his career he really pitched like an ace for a full season was back in 2013 when he posted 209 IP with a 145 ERA+, finishing 12th by FIP based WAR & 2nd by runs allowed based WAR.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#29

Posted: December 28, 2020, 10:19 PM Post
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Brewers wouldn't have to do much at all this offseason to be the favorites in division. Make a move or two why not??


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#30

Posted: December 28, 2020, 10:21 PM Post
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This Michael Cermani tweet was from earlier today...

If Cubs do end up w/ Zach Davies, they'd have 3 of the bottom-10 pitchers in fastball velocity for 2020. And if they re-sign Jon Lester, it'd be four of the top-10.

Hendricks: 87.4 MPH (3rd lowest)
Davies: 88.6 MPH (5th)
Lester: 89.2 MPH (6th)
Mills: 90.0 MPH (9th)


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#31

Posted: December 28, 2020, 10:21 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
adambr2 said:
That doesn't help. But Hader is going to be rather expensive (as relievers go) himself the next 3 years, and obviously isn't as valuable as an ace.


Is Yu really an ace though?

Sure, he pitched like one (221 ERA+) for 76 IP in 2020, but in 2019 he only posted a 110 ERA+ in 178 IP, finishing 43rd by FIP based WAR & 31st by runs allowed based WAR out of 75 pitchers with at least 150 IP. In 2018 he was hurt & only threw 40 IP with an 85 ERA+.

Add it all up & ZiPS projects him for 150 IP with a 120 ERA+ (3.2 WAR) in 2021, which is more of a solid #2.

The only time in his career he really pitched like an ace for a full season was back in 2013 when he posted 209 IP with a 145 ERA+, finishing 12th by FIP based WAR & 2nd by runs allowed based WAR.


He was pretty great in the 2nd half of 2019 the further he got away from his injury riddled 2018. After the all-star break he averaged over 6 innings per start, 81.2 innings, 2.76 ERA with 118 strikeouts and only 7 walks. Add that to this year and his last 25 starts he's posted a 2.40 ERA with 211 strikeouts and 21 walks in 157.2 innings. This board would be flipping their you know what if we got him

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#32

Posted: December 28, 2020, 10:37 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
sveumrules said:
Is Yu really an ace though?

Sure, he pitched like one (221 ERA+) for 76 IP in 2020, but in 2019 he only posted a 110 ERA+ in 178 IP, finishing 43rd by FIP based WAR & 31st by runs allowed based WAR out of 75 pitchers with at least 150 IP. In 2018 he was hurt & only threw 40 IP with an 85 ERA+.

Add it all up & ZiPS projects him for 150 IP with a 120 ERA+ (3.2 WAR) in 2021, which is more of a solid #2.

The only time in his career he really pitched like an ace for a full season was back in 2013 when he posted 209 IP with a 145 ERA+, finishing 12th by FIP based WAR & 2nd by runs allowed based WAR.


He was pretty great in the 2nd half of 2019 the further he got away from his injury riddled 2018. After the all-star break he averaged over 6 innings per start, 81.2 innings, 2.76 ERA with 118 strikeouts and only 7 walks. Add that to this year and his last 25 starts he's posted a 2.40 ERA with 211 strikeouts and 21 walks in 157.2 innings. This board would be flipping their you know what if we got him


No doubt, I'd be excited. That wouldn't guarantee that Yu stays healthy & earns his 59 million though.

If the return is viewed as underwhelming doesn't that mean the market held some degree of skepticism as well?

I think its a good deal for both sides. The Padres don't really give up anything of immediate value for a playoff caliber starter (that is 34 & costs 59 million), while the Cubs get a bunch of lottery tickets plus a guy who should eat some innings for a rotation that is currently pretty stark.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#33

Posted: December 28, 2020, 10:39 PM Post
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FanGraphs trade analysis article by Craig Edwards: Padres Give Up Prospects for Yu Darvish While Cubs Give Up

Also, the Padres rotation in 2022 should include: Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Chris Paddack and MacKenzie Gore (not to mention Lucchesi, Lamet, Weathers, Morejon, etc.)

Those first three pitchers (Clevinger, Snell, and Darvish) were acquired this year and the Padres surrendered just one total top 100 prospect to do it.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#34

Posted: December 28, 2020, 11:02 PM Post
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Only Cubs with guaranteed deals for 2022 are Heyward (22), Hendriks (14) & Bote (2.5) million.

Will be interesting to see if they maybe deal Bryant, bring back Lester/Quintana with the saved cash & make one last kinda sorta go for it year, or if they just decide to burn the whole thing to the ground.

Voting for plan B, obvs.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#35

Posted: December 29, 2020, 7:47 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
Only Cubs with guaranteed deals for 2022 are Heyward (22), Hendriks (14) & Bote (2.5) million.

Will be interesting to see if they maybe deal Bryant, bring back Lester/Quintana with the saved cash & make one last kinda sorta go for it year, or if they just decide to burn the whole thing to the ground.

Voting for plan B, obvs.


Getting Darvish off the books frees up money to bring back both Lester and Quintana on short term modest deals, which I believe is their plan. If they held on to Darvish, they'd have an ace presumably but their rotation would be very, very thin. Also wouldn't shock me if they somehow landed Bauer instead of Lester/Quintana


Last edited by JohnBriggs12 on December 29, 2020, 8:36 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres
#36

Posted: December 29, 2020, 8:14 AM Post
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homer said:
Cubs cutting payroll. hilarious


Since buying the Cubs, the Ricketts family has done nothing but throw money at renovating Wrigley Field and buying/redeveloping property surrounding it to try and maximize gameday revenues - they had to refinance most of that development in 2019. This was all done under the assumption that it would quickly pay for itself with sold out stadiums and plenty of festivities happening even in the offseason for people to frequent and spend their money.

The Cubs are a huge market with their own sports network/TV deal as of 2020, but the amount of $ it took to get them set up that way definitely has their day to day business operations desperate for the revenue streams it projected from fans on gameday. Those revenue streams just aren't going to come fast enough for them to justify not slashing player payroll as well - the fact they are willing to deal their best pitcher from last season because he was still under a big contract and consider resigning Lester coming off the end of his bloated contract and buying him out for $10M because he would cost much less longterm tells you everything you need to know about what their balance sheet looks like headed into 2021. They've also laid off over 100 employees in baseball/business ops in the past year.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#37

Posted: December 29, 2020, 9:46 AM Post
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They've said they're a billion in debt.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#38

Posted: December 29, 2020, 10:18 AM Post
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It would be an exaggeration for me to say I am an expert on the prospects the Cubs got. I have read about them recently because the Pads are a team we have dealt with last year and could
again.

But I suspect the Cubs’ fans’ temper tantrums won’t age well. The prospects for the most part are oozing with projectable talent and they are very young. As we all know, success requires a lot more than physical ability, or else Monte Harrison and Corey Ray would look like Willie Mays. The Cubs played the odds and I would not dismiss the notion that they get their next Gleyber Torres or Eloy Jiminez.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#39

Posted: December 29, 2020, 10:27 AM Post
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Austin Tatious said:
It would be an exaggeration for me to say I am an expert on the prospects the Cubs got. I have read about them recently because the Pads are a team we have dealt with last year and could
again.

But I suspect the Cubs’ fans’ temper tantrums won’t age well. The prospects for the most part are oozing with projectable talent and they are very young. As we all know, success requires a lot more than physical ability, or else Monte Harrison and Corey Ray would look like Willie Mays. The Cubs played the odds and I would not dismiss the notion that they get their next Gleyber Torres or Eloy Jiminez.


While as a homer Brewers fan I personally hope all four of those guys flame out, odds are at least one will turn out ok. But it won't be for awhile. The Cubs, it appears, are going into a rebuild, which just so happens to coincide with the Brewers having Yelich signed to a long-term deal through his prime years, along with big talent at the top of the rotation. I don't know if the Brewers are ever going to have a better opportunity to "go for it" in a division that is making big payroll cuts. I'm not advocating making a bunch of huge expenditures, but if the Brewers can grab a couple solid corner IF bats, and a couple solid additions to the rotation and pen, they are primed to be the projected top team in the division.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#40

Posted: December 29, 2020, 10:33 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
Only Cubs with guaranteed deals for 2022 are Heyward (22), Hendriks (14) & Bote (2.5) million.

Will be interesting to see if they maybe deal Bryant, bring back Lester/Quintana with the saved cash & make one last kinda sorta go for it year, or if they just decide to burn the whole thing to the ground.

Voting for plan B, obvs.


Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do. Cots has their estimated payroll for 2021 at $127,802,500, and Bryant (proj $19M), Baez (proj $11.25M), Rizzo ($16.5M), and Davies (proj $9M) will all be free agents after this season. The Darvish trade certainly looks like a rebuilding move, and all I can say is that if they go into a rebuild, it's going to be a big one.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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