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Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects

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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#61

Posted: January 05, 2021, 9:45 AM Post
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Omar | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 106 | 2020 actual OPS+: 53 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 94
Urias | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 95 | 2020 actual OPS+: 64 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 90
Avisail | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 107 | 2020 actual OPS+: 79 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 98
Hiura | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 115 | 2020 actual OPS+: 88 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 102
Yelich | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 149 | 2020 actual OPS+: 111 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 135

Is it possible that all five of these guys underperform their projections by 25-50% again in 2021? Sure, it's possible. It's also highly unlikely.

Who knows how the rest of the offseason shakes out, but right now my NLC tiers would be Brewers/Cardinals (small gap) Cubs/Reds (large gap) Pirates.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#62

Posted: January 05, 2021, 10:00 AM Post
Posts: 132
There is an article in the Athletic, Why missing in-game video meant a poor season for Christian Yelich (and others), about how the Covid-19 protocol about not allowing access to the video room in-game led to batters not being able to adjust. Especially batters like Yelich and Hiura with a leg kick.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#63

Posted: January 05, 2021, 10:05 AM Post
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StearnsFTW said:
I don't think it's nearly as bad as you do, but I agree on 3b & 1b being problems (I consider Urias our everyday SS).

Garcia, Urias, Narvaez and obviously Yelich are the guys I'm looking at to step up in addition to (hopefully) getting competent 1b and 3b.


I don't really want to see Urias as our everyday third baseman, so I hope they make a move to find a solid third baseman. That would allow for Stearns to trade one of Arcia, Hiura or Urias. Arcia is the "easy" option of the three, but he'd also have the least return. I'm warming to the idea of trading Hiura for a "monster" return and going with the solid defense of Arcia at SS and Urias at 2B (his natural position). I think Vogelbach's bat should be average or above for a MLB 1b, and his bad defense at 1B would be a little less troublesome if we had good defenders at the other three infield positions, or possibly a good first baseman could be part of the return for Hiura.

Like you mentioned, our biggest offensive "upgrade" is going to have to be simple... the good hitters on the team have to hit. If Yelich, Garcia, Narvaez, etc hit like they did in 2020, our offense will not be good regardless of other moves we make.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#64

Posted: January 05, 2021, 11:08 AM Post
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monty57 said:
StearnsFTW said:
I don't think it's nearly as bad as you do, but I agree on 3b & 1b being problems (I consider Urias our everyday SS).

Garcia, Urias, Narvaez and obviously Yelich are the guys I'm looking at to step up in addition to (hopefully) getting competent 1b and 3b.


I don't really want to see Urias as our everyday third baseman, so I hope they make a move to find a solid third baseman. That would allow for Stearns to trade one of Arcia, Hiura or Urias. Arcia is the "easy" option of the three, but he'd also have the least return. I'm warming to the idea of trading Hiura for a "monster" return and going with the solid defense of Arcia at SS and Urias at 2B (his natural position). I think Vogelbach's bat should be average or above for a MLB 1b, and his bad defense at 1B would be a little less troublesome if we had good defenders at the other three infield positions, or possibly a good first baseman could be part of the return for Hiura.

Like you mentioned, our biggest offensive "upgrade" is going to have to be simple... the good hitters on the team have to hit. If Yelich, Garcia, Narvaez, etc hit like they did in 2020, our offense will not be good regardless of other moves we make.


We need to build this offense around Yelich and Hiura... If we trade Hiura, teams will have no reason to pitch to Yeli then.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#65

Posted: January 05, 2021, 11:35 AM Post
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BestInTheWorld said:
We need to build this offense around Yelich and Hiura... If we trade Hiura, teams will have no reason to pitch to Yeli then.


That's certainly one way to go, and I wouldn't be upset at all if we continue down that route. But, there are lots of other options, like signing La Stella to play 3B and trading Hiura for a young first baseman who can hit. In that scenario, we maximize Urias by moving him to his natural position, and we greatly upgrade our infield defense, while upgrading our offense at the corners to offset the likely offensive downgrade at 2B.

I like Hiura, but he has to hit to his potential to offset his horrendous defense. A right-side-of-the-infield made up of Hiura and Vogelbach may be decent offensively, but defensively it sends shivers down my spine.

But as I mentioned in my previous post, my primary focus would be to find a third baseman. What we'd then do with the logjam of Urias, Arcia, and Hiura in the middle infield would be the secondary concern. Hiura simply would bring the most back, and while I was completely opposed to the thought of trading him, I'm warming to that idea if it brings back a huge return and if we address the corner IF positions. I'm not sold on it, and it would have to make both short-term and long-term sense for the team.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#66

Posted: January 05, 2021, 12:10 PM Post
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Not that it is likely any longer, but I'd rather trade Hader for corner IF guys than Hiura. Trading hitting for hitting doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#67

Posted: January 07, 2021, 9:44 AM Post
Posts: 2400
Location: Madison, WI
Hiura has to be a hold. Trading him now seems to be a pretty dramatic situation of selling low. Has to go back in the starting lineup and try to improve on last year's .212/.297/.410/.707 which seems like a really safe and easy bet.


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Offline  Re: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects
#68

Posted: January 07, 2021, 9:52 AM Post
Posts: 1116
Location: Oshkosh
Protection is a myth.


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