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Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers

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Online  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#81

Posted: February 14, 2021, 9:16 AM Post
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Yep. 100% agreed. There might not be any single dominant team but in order to win the World Series you need a high payroll. The only exception in recent memory is the Royals.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#82

Posted: February 14, 2021, 9:20 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
I think the offense will be better than most think. Some are putting too much weight into the Covid year and not what most of these guys have done for the majority of their careers. 3B is a nightmare but half the lineup are good candidates to go back to their career mean. That and a weak division and I think they are a 86-88 win team and that might be enough for October.

I wish they had a better lineup too but I don't think it's quite as bad as it was last year.


Yeah there is way too much focus on 2020 numbers among many fans. The career numbers of the projected Brewers starters (Against both LHP and RHP) are slightly above 100 wRC+ on average. That is, above league average. That's of course a very rough measurement that doesn't take into account platooning, aging, playing time, pinch hitting etc. Projections tend to line up around that as well; average to slightly below average. You could say it's more likely to be below than above those numbers, given how some individual hitters looked so poor last year that it's hard to believe they were once good hitters (Narvaez for example), but even so that's a long way from the hyperbole thrown around on here saying this lineup looks like one of the worst ever, or that this is a 70-win team etc.

It's pretty basic, an offense that's expected to be average to below average, pitching that's above average, defense that's probably average to slightly above average, and average-ish baserunning makes for a team that's expected to be around average, or slightly better. Assessing the team as such isn't even with rose-tinted glasses from a fan, it's also what the projection systems out there see based strictly on projecting past performance forward. Even the most pessimistic (The combined Steamer/ZiPS on Fangraphs) that projects 79 wins still projects that as tying for the division. Two systems are a lot more positive than that.

So with regards to the optimist/realist/pessimist discussion earlier in the thread, the "worst lineup ever" talk isn't being a realist, it's being a pessimist. A pessimist will still be correct in the end some of the time, as will the optimist, but it doesn't necessarily make either one of them realists. In the Stearns/Counsell era, it has mostly been the case that it's the optimists who have ended up right more often than not, beating the projections and predictions. I don't really see a reason for that to change, it's not luck that has driven this team forward so far in these years, it's the benefits of having a systematic and forward-thinking approach, and being open to squeeze out those extra runs and wins in any way they can, not just by following the conventional wisdom.


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Online  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#83

Posted: February 14, 2021, 9:26 AM Post
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When it comes to our lineup we're hoping for major bounce backs from guys like Hiura, Narvaez, Yelich, & Garcia, while also hoping Cain hasn't lost much of a step, and that either Arcia or Urias can break out. We have no sure things which is fine. Chances are some will bounce back or break out and others won't. As long as we pivot when inevitably a couple of guys show last year was who they are we should be fine(& Stearns & Counsell have always shown a willingness to move on in those situations). But this is also why we need solid depth behind our starters


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#84

Posted: February 14, 2021, 9:27 AM Post
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Soupbone said:
This in reference to DHonks. Nice success. Yes we have been competitive but no chance to win the World Series. And don't say 2018 because nobody was beating the Red Sox that year. Again a big money spending team wins it all. Sure there are no dynasties except you have to spend a lot of money to win the ultimate prize.


This is ridiculous. You cannot say the 2018 team had "no chance" to win the WS. If this is your threshold for acceptable ownership, you need to find another team to root for.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#85

Posted: February 14, 2021, 9:43 AM Post
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MVP2110 said:
When it comes to our lineup we're hoping for major bounce backs from guys like Hiura, Narvaez, Yelich, & Garcia, while also hoping Cain hasn't lost much of a step, and that either Arcia or Urias can break out. We have no sure things which is fine. Chances are some will bounce back or break out and others won't. As long as we pivot when inevitably a couple of guys show last year was who they are we should be fine(& Stearns & Counsell have always shown a willingness to move on in those situations). But this is also why we need solid depth behind our starters


I would wager that all 4 of the first names have better seasons in 2021. Cain is a bit of a wild card as he didn't provide a whole lot of offense in 2019. I'm not expecting a lot from him other than defense and competent ABs.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#86

Posted: February 14, 2021, 10:36 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
“So overall, good try.”

I don’t know why this from Heyman cracked me up so much.


Yeah that was pretty funny. Like a little league coach consoling a kid that struck out with the bases loaded.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#87

Posted: February 14, 2021, 10:41 AM Post
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Couple thoughts. I think the Brewers were used to up the price for the Dodgers. They may have been willing accomplices (or not) but the end result is they probably helped him get more than the Dodgers wanted to spend on him.
I don't think the money the Brewers might have been willing to spend on Turner means they should necessarily spend that same money on other players. Turner was someone who fit a need that isn't going to be fixed simply by spending that same amount elsewhere. That doesn't mean I don't want them to spend more on players that fit a need. I just don't think the willingness to spend money to make a huge difference should signal the willingness to spend that same money making the fringes better. Nor will I blame them for not doing so if we end up spending less.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#88

Posted: February 14, 2021, 12:53 PM Post
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Thurston Fluff said:
That doesn't mean I don't want them to spend more on players that fit a need. I just don't think the willingness to spend money to make a huge difference should signal the willingness to spend that same money making the fringes better. Nor will I blame them for not doing so if we end up spending less.


I agree and I think this also goes against a salary cap because as we've seen in the NBA teams will just give more money to marginal players to fill up their salary cap. Very rarely to teams go into the season with a big salary cap cushion.

I think what this does show is that there is money in the budget for a player of JT's caliber. Now it's just a matter of Stearns finding that player. Hopefully we're in it enough at the trade deadline to add for the playoff push.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#89

Posted: February 14, 2021, 1:22 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
Eye Black said:
Well I guess at least this news has given Haudricourt another chance to revel in his "Brewers can barely afford to keep the lights on" narrative. I'm convinced that nobody associated with covering/following the Brewers enjoys the moments when the team falls short more than he does.


I love how he condescends to fans questioning the Brewers not spending money because they're losing so much money and how the fans don't know what they're talking about. Sure Tom, I'm sure Mark has definitely opened the books for you.


Good point. He forgets the FANS are the ones who really get him employed not the team. Having contempt for fans who create his employment is disgusting. He also seems to forget that there are fans that are considerably smarter than he is. I mean, we’ve got engineers, doctors, lawyers, high level business people etc in the fan base. It’s childish, juvenile, and unprofessional. You’re a bleeping sportswriter. Calm down with the cockiness.

And he’s an apologist for the franchise. He’s afraid to ask tough questions and toes the company line. He is in their back pocket. And he’s so well regarded by the team that they feed scoops to Heyman and Rosenthal. And Murray is out hustling him now. He seems like a rising star. Tom is a mediocrity at his job.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#90

Posted: February 14, 2021, 1:32 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
Almost forgot to mention, this would now be an excellent moment for the Brewers to offer the Dodgers a trade for Edwin Rios.


I agree. He’s 27 already and questionable on D. They just got the kid from Oakland, Sheldon Neuse. The Dodgers’ actions speak loudly for what they think about him. To be fair to him, they could move him.

Rios and Robertson might be an interesting combo. Robertson is a former top 100 prospect and people forget that. I suspect he will be a good contributor.

I think we could make Rios a good target.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#91

Posted: February 14, 2021, 1:47 PM Post
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jjgott said:
Thurston Fluff said:
That doesn't mean I don't want them to spend more on players that fit a need. I just don't think the willingness to spend money to make a huge difference should signal the willingness to spend that same money making the fringes better. Nor will I blame them for not doing so if we end up spending less.


I think what this does show is that there is money in the budget for a player of JT's caliber. Now it's just a matter of Stearns finding that player. Hopefully we're in it enough at the trade deadline to add for the playoff push.


While it shows there is money for such a player that doesn't mean there is one like that out there. I didn't think of it until you brought it up but there is a value to saving that money until the trade deadline.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#92

Posted: February 14, 2021, 2:09 PM Post
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Soupbone said:
This in reference to DHonks. Nice success. Yes we have been competitive but no chance to win the World Series. And don't say 2018 because nobody was beating the Red Sox that year. Again a big money spending team wins it all. Sure there are no dynasties except you have to spend a lot of money to win the ultimate prize.


That's totally not true. We were 1 game from winning the NLCS. If you're in the dance, you've got a chance.

Billy Beane used to say he could build a team to win over 162 games, but it's a crapshoot in the playoffs


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#93

Posted: February 14, 2021, 2:41 PM Post
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In response to Old School and DHonks I am a huge Brewer fan but also accept the "situation" the Brewers are in. However, I am realistic about their chances. Agreed, they had a "chance" in 2018. But how small of a chance was it? The team that beat them lost in 5 games and the only game that they won was an extra inning game. Boston was better. It was their 4 title in 15 years and it was the Brewers first chance since 1982. That sums up the what small market teams are up against.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#94

Posted: February 14, 2021, 3:11 PM Post
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Soupbone said:
In response to Old School and DHonks I am a huge Brewer fan but also accept the "situation" the Brewers are in. However, I am realistic about their chances. Agreed, they had a "chance" in 2018. But how small of a chance was it? The team that beat them lost in 5 games and the only game that they won was an extra inning game. Boston was better. It was their 4 title in 15 years and it was the Brewers first chance since 1982. That sums up the what small market teams are up against.


Well first off that just isn't true, the Brewers had a chance in 2011 with a (imo) better team. That season, they were the best team in baseball.

You should know, and I'm sure you do, that baseball doesn't work this way. A beat B so A will beat C is just not how it is.

Boston was better. Boston would have been a heavy favorite. No one will ever know how that series would have gone. But that wasn't the point. Claiming the Brewers will never have a chance when they went to the LCS twice in 8 seasons is just being a pessimist without the reality to support it.

I've signed off on the contract that it's likely I'll never see this team win a WS, but I can say that it won't be for lack of an honest effort. They've surpassed my wildest expectations already for a person who was raised on the 90s teams.

There's a difference between fair criticism and "don't say they had a chance in 2018," which is just being unfair.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#95

Posted: February 14, 2021, 3:38 PM Post
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Well I didn't want him, anyway!


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#96

Posted: February 14, 2021, 4:17 PM Post
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DHonks said:
Soupbone said:
This in reference to DHonks. Nice success. Yes we have been competitive but no chance to win the World Series. And don't say 2018 because nobody was beating the Red Sox that year. Again a big money spending team wins it all. Sure there are no dynasties except you have to spend a lot of money to win the ultimate prize.


That's totally not true. We were 1 game from winning the NLCS. If you're in the dance, you've got a chance.

Billy Beane used to say he could build a team to win over 162 games, but it's a crapshoot in the playoffs


I agree that we had a decent chance in 2018, and actually 2011. I know 2020 was totally non-standard, but the chance the Brewers had of winning the World Series was about as close to zero as you can get. So, the point I think that the original poster was trying to make is more that outside of a few outliers, that the big-payroll teams have the realistic chance while the small-payroll teams have only a slight chance and need lots to go their way to win it all.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#97

Posted: February 14, 2021, 4:42 PM Post
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StearnsFTW said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Eye Black said:
You think the over/under is that the Dodgers will go 122-40 next season? I'll take the under.


Added Bauer and resigned Turner. 116 wins based on pct last season.Aside from SD what team in Division is fielding an 80 win team? NL central is filled with 80win teams that will have at least 1 exceed since half games played vs eachother.


Wait, you were serious?

Lol.

Dodger win total will be about 105 if it's 162 game season.


https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/dodgers

They have nearly an entire starting offense projected to bat over an 800+OPS. The one starter at 2nd base Taylor is backed up by top prospect Gavin Lux who has close to 780 OPS projection. The Brewers have Yelich and nobody else. Pitching. Dodgers have 3 Cy Young candidates headlining an offense that doesnt need CY Young candidates to win 50pct of the games. But they do. Their top pitching prospects who pitched for them last season all had under 3ERA in the small sample of games. These guys were rated about where Woodruff was rated when he joined Milw. So its not like Kershaw goes down and LA is pitching a 4+ mediocre starter behind him. Legit #2 or 3 steps in. This runs 7 deep now. Again paired with an offense that has a Yelich bat in it and every other bat better than Brewers #2 bat. It's a Super Team. Expect it to be Super.


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Online  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#98

Posted: February 14, 2021, 5:03 PM Post
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The 2001 Seattle Mariners were about as stacked as a team has ever been, and they won 116 games. It isn't impossible that the Dodgers win 122, but is about a "winning the Powerball jackpot" level of improbable.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
#99

Posted: February 14, 2021, 5:11 PM Post
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I don’t think some realize that baseball games aren’t won on paper. Never have been. Never will be. The Dodgers will be damn good. But they will take their losses and sometimes it will be at the hands of the worst team in the league. Because, baseball.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Online  Re: Justin Turner to re-sign with Dodgers
Posted: February 14, 2021, 5:17 PM Post
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mtrebs said:
DHonks said:
Soupbone said:
This in reference to DHonks. Nice success. Yes we have been competitive but no chance to win the World Series. And don't say 2018 because nobody was beating the Red Sox that year. Again a big money spending team wins it all. Sure there are no dynasties except you have to spend a lot of money to win the ultimate prize.


That's totally not true. We were 1 game from winning the NLCS. If you're in the dance, you've got a chance.

Billy Beane used to say he could build a team to win over 162 games, but it's a crapshoot in the playoffs


I agree that we had a decent chance in 2018, and actually 2011. I know 2020 was totally non-standard, but the chance the Brewers had of winning the World Series was about as close to zero as you can get. So, the point I think that the original poster was trying to make is more that outside of a few outliers, that the big-payroll teams have the realistic chance while the small-payroll teams have only a slight chance and need lots to go their way to win it all.


Stop using common sense.

[wink]

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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