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Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out

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Online  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#41

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:07 AM Post
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AdvantageSchneider said:
I wonder how negotiations went given what his agent had to say when he left. Will this be asked about by the cracker jack reporters covering the team or is it just water over the dam at this point.

Travis Shaw’s agent, Joe Bick, texted me this statement regarding Shaw, now a free agent: “If Travis can be in a spot where a team just trusts and believes in him, they’ll get tremendous results.”


Based on the 2020 results, it looks like the Blue Jays didn't trust & believe in Travis enough either.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#42

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:20 AM Post
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AdvantageSchneider said:
I wonder how negotiations went given what his agent had to say when he left. Will this be asked about by the cracker jack reporters covering the team or is it just water over the dam at this point.


Considering Shaw signed a minor league deal, I'm sure he was in the situation of having to take what he could get. I have a feeling he will make the team, but if he doesn't produce, he'll be gone in pretty short order. I don't think the previous relationship, or any perceived bad blood, has any meaning at this point. He's at the point where if he doesn't make it with the Brewers in 2021, he might be done. That realization will make a payer swallow their pride pretty quick.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#43

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:21 AM Post
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This is a terrible signing!

This is a fantastic signing!


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#44

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:26 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
If the Brewers can get league average offense from Shaw and a $3 million dollar contract; they will have done very well


I still think that's a big if. We have no idea if his modest 2020 numbers were a "dead cat" bounce or a sign he'll be closer to his 2018 form. A safer sign would have been Brad Miller (before he got picked up by Phils) or Franco. His OPS+ of 95 last year doesn't scream he's back.

In 2018, he struck out once per every 5.4 PA. Last year he fanned once every 3.6 PA. That was an improvement over 2019 but not great. His BABIP was close to his career high from 2017. Good news is that his contract doesn't preclude them from dumping him if he doesn't produce as they did with Smoak last year.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#45

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:37 AM Post
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SRB said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
SRB said:
I'd be surprised if he doesn't make the roster, no? Who does he have to beat out for the last infield bench spot, Mark Mathias/Jace Peterson, or is it Daniel Vogelbach?

I think Robertson is pretty safe.


Obviously Hiura, Wong and Urias are locks. Arcia and Robertson are probably close to it. If they keep 13 position players, it will probably be 4-5 outfielders, 5-6 infielders and the two catchers. That means Vogelbach and Shaw may be competing for one spot. I suppose they could keep both, but then that means only 4 OFers.


Can't see them keeping Vogelbach to be honest, unless there is a last minute deal to keep the NL DH. The Wong signing more or less forces them to be serious about Hiura at 1B, and Hiura is not going to be sitting very often. Even assuming Vogelbach is a better bet to hit well against RHP than Shaw (not entirely clear), being a 1B/DH versus a 3B/1B/2B is a huge difference.


I know it's the smallest of samples but Vogelbach crushed it at Miller Park. With how bad the offense might be I would want to at least keep his bat around to see if there's any longevity to his splits there.


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Online  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#46

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:48 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
A safer sign would have been Brad Miller (before he got picked up by Phils) or Franco. His OPS+ of 95 last year doesn't scream he's back.


ZiPS projects both Miller (96 OPS+, 0.9 WAR) & Franco (95 OPS+, 0.5 WAR) worse than Travis (102 OPS+, 1.8 WAR) for 2021.

By that methodology Shaw appears to be a safest bet, though "safest bet out of three longshots" is a pretty dubious qualifier to begin with.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#47

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:50 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
I know it's the smallest of samples but Vogelbach crushed it at Miller Park. With how bad the offense might be I would want to at least keep his bat around to see if there's any longevity to his splits there.


I agree. His lefty bat is intriguing at home. Even with Shaw on the team, there's still a big need for bench power. I hope that Robertson, Arcia and Shaw are bringing their OF gloves to camp then, because I think the only way the numbers work is if they keep only 4 true OFers.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#48

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:53 AM Post
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Travis Shaw could hit like his 2020 self and I would probably be happy. Urias has a career OPS of .623 and Robertson barely had an OPS over .600 in his last extended look at the big stage. At the very least Shaw should help raise the floor of production at 3B. Urias and Robertson both have a decent probability to look like AAAA players.


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Online  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#49

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:14 AM Post
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It's weird that anyone would put the AAAA title near Urias, a top prospect that battled a wrist injury, and Covid a season ago, that is turning 24 years old. It's just an odd way to look at him going into this season. That doesn't mean I think he will light the world on fire offensively, it just is odd to have any sort of judgment on him.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#50

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:22 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
It's weird that anyone would put the AAAA title near Urias, a top prospect that battled a wrist injury, and Covid a season ago, that is turning 24 years old. It's just an odd way to look at him going into this season. That doesn't mean I think he will light the world on fire offensively, it just is odd to have any sort of judgment on him.


Didn't say he was one, but he could definitely hit like one this year. He has done it for over 400 PAs now in his career in all honesty. All I am saying is he has a solid amount of risk of being atrocious with the bat, as done Robertson. At least with Shaw you can have some confidence he should be near league average...should.

I won't be shocked if Urias ends up the better of the 3B or beats out Arcia at SS this year, but that is really far from assured and Urias arguably has the lowest floor of the bunch.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#51

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:54 AM Post
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His 2020 numbers are very close to his 2016 numbers in Boston (when they gave up on him).

I hope it works out - seems like a very low risk move in any event.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#52

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:59 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
It's weird that anyone would put the AAAA title near Urias, a top prospect that battled a wrist injury, and Covid a season ago, that is turning 24 years old. It's just an odd way to look at him going into this season. That doesn't mean I think he will light the world on fire offensively, it just is odd to have any sort of judgment on him.

I completely agree with this statement. If the Brewers went out and traded for the 1B or 3B equivalent of Urias this offseason (top 25 prospect in MLB in 2019 who was hurt in 2020), can you imagine how excited people would be about his breakout potential? It reminds me of Anthony Rizzo, who also was a top 50 prospect pre-2012, who was absolute garbage in San Diego in 2011 in 153 PAs:

AVG: .141
OBP: .281
SLG: .242
OPS: .523

I am not saying Urias at SS is going to be as good as Rizzo at 1B. I am saying not everyone starts their career like Ryan Braun, and as B4U mentioned, Urias had a wrist injury and COVID. Let's give him at least half of a healthy season before we make some judgment on him. He was top 25 for a reason.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#53

Posted: February 17, 2021, 10:10 AM Post
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Yep, I'm fully on board with giving Urias the starting SS spot this year and seeing how he does


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#54

Posted: February 17, 2021, 10:35 AM Post
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folly412 said:
He makes the team if he has anything more than the 2019 Shaw who seemed to have forgotten how to hit a baseball. One of those who fell of the cliff when Haines came to town.


Yeah, I don't know what happened to him. He was seriously progressing to becoming a star, at worst a high end 3rd baseman. Every metric was improving and suddenly he lost the ability to make contact. Initially I thought maybe the league caught up and found a hole in his swing, but he was having the issue in Spring training already. So I have to believe he changed something in his swing/mechanics/timing or had some sort of vision change.

Anyway, I'm supper happy he's got another shot here.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#55

Posted: February 17, 2021, 10:42 AM Post
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Again, I said nothing about his potential. All I was pointing out was his risk to totally flop is much higher than others. Due to his limited experience, age, and the fact he has a 400 PA history of not being a good hitter. It is very possible he continues to be a sub .700 hitter. I don't think that is really judging him. More players flop than actually succeed...even highly rated prospects. I am guessing the odds to not end up a good player greatly increase with every 100 PAs of poor play.

Just take BFRef projections for example:

Urias: .695 OPS / 59% reliability
Shaw: .716 OPS / 76% reliability

My point is Shaw is a veteran and his production is easier to plan for. Hopefully it raises the floor production we get out of the 3B position and is probably a big reason he was signed. Urias may have the higher ceiling, but he also could give you the worst production too. For his production floor I like the Shaw signing and I think both have nice ceilings for 2021.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#56

Posted: February 17, 2021, 10:59 AM Post
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If we’re talking about low floors then Shaw’s 2019 performance is a nuclear fallout shelter.
The variables at play make the 3b situation unpredictable as well as compelling. Nothing would totally shock me. Personally I wanted to see Urias get a chance to be the primary 3b in 2021 but agree that it is best to at least have a fallback option or two.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#57

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:17 AM Post
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NievesNoNO said:
folly412 said:
He makes the team if he has anything more than the 2019 Shaw who seemed to have forgotten how to hit a baseball. One of those who fell of the cliff when Haines came to town.


Yeah, I don't know what happened to him. He was seriously progressing to becoming a star, at worst a high end 3rd baseman. Every metric was improving and suddenly he lost the ability to make contact. Initially I thought maybe the league caught up and found a hole in his swing, but he was having the issue in Spring training already. So I have to believe he changed something in his swing/mechanics/timing or had some sort of vision change.

I remember reading something about Shaw around Spring Training 2019 changing his swing as a result of the launch angle revolution. Maybe Yelich's big out-of-nowhere 2018 convinced him to do the same. Hopefully, he can remember who he is and that 2017-2018 swing and recapture 75% of the past glory.


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#58

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:50 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
I know it's the smallest of samples but Vogelbach crushed it at Miller Park. With how bad the offense might be I would want to at least keep his bat around to see if there's any longevity to his splits there.


I agree. His lefty bat is intriguing at home. Even with Shaw on the team, there's still a big need for bench power. I hope that Robertson, Arcia and Shaw are bringing their OF gloves to camp then, because I think the only way the numbers work is if they keep only 4 true OFers.


Doesn't seem like we've had a 5th OFer in our typical 25/26 man rosters though...Seems like we normally (2017-2019 range) had Gamel as the 4th and bring up Taylor/Ray/Broxton in case of an injury.

Maybe we just have Vogelbach cover LF for emergencies...


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#59

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:50 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
I know it's the smallest of samples but Vogelbach crushed it at Miller Park. With how bad the offense might be I would want to at least keep his bat around to see if there's any longevity to his splits there.


I agree. His lefty bat is intriguing at home. Even with Shaw on the team, there's still a big need for bench power. I hope that Robertson, Arcia and Shaw are bringing their OF gloves to camp then, because I think the only way the numbers work is if they keep only 4 true OFers.


Doesn't seem like we've had a 5th OFer in our typical 25/26 man rosters though...Seems like we normally (2017-2019 range) had Gamel as the 4th and bring up Taylor/Ray/Broxton in case of an injury.

Maybe we just have Vogelbach cover LF for emergencies...


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Offline  Re: Brewers sign Travis Shaw- $1.5m Minor League Deal, $1.5 more in incentives, with an opt-out
#60

Posted: February 17, 2021, 12:06 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Again, I said nothing about his potential. All I was pointing out was his risk to totally flop is much higher than others. Due to his limited experience, age, and the fact he has a 400 PA history of not being a good hitter. It is very possible he continues to be a sub .700 hitter. I don't think that is really judging him. More players flop than actually succeed...even highly rated prospects. I am guessing the odds to not end up a good player greatly increase with every 100 PAs of poor play.

Just take BFRef projections for example:

Urias: .695 OPS / 59% reliability
Shaw: .716 OPS / 76% reliability

My point is Shaw is a veteran and his production is easier to plan for. Hopefully it raises the floor production we get out of the 3B position and is probably a big reason he was signed. Urias may have the higher ceiling, but he also could give you the worst production too. For his production floor I like the Shaw signing and I think both have nice ceilings for 2021.


Assuming Shaw makes the team, I highly suspect Urias plays against lefties. I'm fine with a platoon there. Both guys play very good defense. If Urias beats out Arcia for everyday SS, then arcia probably plays SS against lefties with Urias at 3b...either way, Shaw probably won't see much LH pitching.

I completely agree on Urias having a higher ceiling, and while Shaw might have a similar floor...he is far more likely to have a 700+ ops outcome than urias. I have a hard time believing we'll ever see the hole in his bat that was 2019. Having both guys generally solidifies at least mediocre production with good defense at the position...with some upside.


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