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2021 Lineup

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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#21

Posted: February 17, 2021, 10:57 AM Post
Posts: 1191
JosephC said:
This thread has convinced me the Brewer's lineup is worse than I thought. Hard to believe that Shaw gets signed and is just thought to be the #5/#6 hitters against righties by default. Shaw has slashed .190/.309/.350/.659 against righties over the last two seasons. Arcia has posted .234/.288/.367/.655 over the same timeframe.

I sure hope the Justin Turner follies did not tie up money when better lineup options may have been available.

Even though Urias' numbers against righties are far, far worse...I still have the feeling that he will be the third baseman heading into the season and Robertson or Shaw will have to beat him out for playing time. Stearns just invested way, way to much in this guy to not give him the first opportunity to play everyday. I wouldn't mind seeing him at shortstop but the Brewers still seem enamoured with Arcia. Can't really blame the Brewers for that at this point as Arcia finally showed some promise last year.


I don't know why anyone would think this lineup is anything but terrible. How many games last season did the team get no hit for at least the first 5 innings. Yelich and Hiura should both be much better but besides that I don't see much to get excited about.

Wong is a great defender and he should have a decent OBP but he doesn't make a poor lineup much better and I expect nothing from third base. I suppose Garcia and especially Narvaez could be better but I don't expect much from either.

This is going to have to be a pitching and defense led team becuase the offense is probably going to be amongst the worst in the league. It also doesn't help having the worst hitting coach in the sport but Stearns chose to retain Haines anyway.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#22

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:02 AM Post
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I mean 1/4th of the lineup didn't play for us last year (Wong & Cain) and have been pretty good hitters with higher OBP's over the course of their careers. But yes, same scrubs...

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#23

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:16 AM Post
Posts: 1343
bergstein24 said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
BestInTheWorld said:

Don't know about that, why wouldnt you put Yelich in the 3 hole so he can make it 3-0 with a HR or 2-0 with a base hit? You put two good on base guys in front of him so he can drive them in.


It's baseball. Your best hitter is in the 2-hole. That's pretty much the way every team does it. I'm sure there is some science and reasoning behind it.


https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guide ... ermetrics/

3 hole is the 4th best hitter in the lineup.


That is the dumbest thing I have ever read....... So all the teams around the league that have star hitters in the 3 hole, are doing it wrong I guess.

Hmmm ok then.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#24

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:18 AM Post
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I would be interested in seeing how many teams have their best hitters in the 2-hole vs. 3-hole or leading off.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#25

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:35 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
I mean 1/4th of the lineup didn't play for us last year (Wong & Cain) and have been pretty good hitters with higher OBP's over the course of their careers. But yes, same scrubs...


And our MVP hitter and best young hitter were both in prolonged slumps. Yes if Yelich and Hiura hit like last year this team will struggle. If they hit close to normal and so do Wong and Cain and honestly Garcia and Narvaez for that matter - this lineup will be much improved. Literally everyone seemed hit below their career averages. This lineup depends on Yelich being an all-star and Hiura being close to it. That isn't out of the question and feel quite possible. If Garcia and Narvaez bounce back then all the sudden this lineup will be solid.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#26

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:42 AM Post
Posts: 671
One of the underrated downsides to no DH is I worry Arcia’s approach will regress once he’s hitting in front of the pitcher again. I cringe a little seeing him in the eight spot.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#27

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:50 AM Post
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bergstein24 said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
BestInTheWorld said:

It's baseball. Your best hitter is in the 2-hole. That's pretty much the way every team does it. I'm sure there is some science and reasoning behind it.


https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guide ... ermetrics/

3 hole is the 4th best hitter in the lineup.


That is the dumbest thing I have ever read....... So all the teams around the league that have star hitters in the 3 hole, are doing it wrong I guess.

Hmmm ok then.


As long as you dont lead off the pitcher & put your best hitters 7-8-9, there is no right or wrong when it comes to lineup construction. There are near infinite possibilities separated by fractions of runs so small it might net an extra couple wins over the course of 162 games.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#28

Posted: February 17, 2021, 12:04 PM Post
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As long as you dont lead off the pitcher & put your best hitters 7-8-9, there is no right or wrong when it comes to lineup construction. There are near infinite possibilities separated by fractions of runs so small it might net an extra couple wins over the course of 162 games.


Thank you!

So I stand by my lineup prediction because it balances out the lineup perfectly with alternating L-R... And puts two good on base guys in front of Yelich and Hiura.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#29

Posted: February 17, 2021, 12:08 PM Post
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brewers888 said:
This is going to have to be a pitching and defense led team becuase the offense is probably going to be amongst the worst in the league. It also doesn't help having the worst hitting coach in the sport but Stearns chose to retain Haines anyway.


From 2017-20 the Brewers allowed the 10th fewest runs, tallied the 7th highest defensive runs saved & scored the 15th most runs, they've bern winning with pitching & defense over hitting for four years now, why would 2021 be any different?

Did you consider the offense amongst the worst in the league last year? Because even with a number of players having career worst seasons, the Brewers 89 wRC+ was still closer to average than it was the worst in the league with the Pirates, Rangers & Rockies posting 73, 76 & 76 wRC+ marks.

When you say the Brewers offense will probably be amongst the worst in the league you are essentially saying they will post a sub-80 wRC+, a ten percent drop from 2020. That seems pretty unlikely to me.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#30

Posted: February 17, 2021, 12:11 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
My not so hot take on this lineup, Yelich is much more likely to be in the top 5 of MVP voting than he is to have a sub 210 avg again in 2021. I'd go as high as 250 on the average...the talent is there and you know he's working hard to bounce back after last season.

I think Yelich will continue to bat 2nd, Cain or Wong probably lead off...my guess is it will be Cain to open the season while he's healthy, and when he inevitably gets nicked up after the first few weeks we may shift to someone else.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#31

Posted: February 17, 2021, 12:39 PM Post
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I firmly believe we'll have a very good offense in 2021.

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/12/15 ... n-baseball

Yelich, Hiura, Garcia, Narvaez are not the hitters we saw in 2020.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#32

Posted: February 17, 2021, 12:47 PM Post
Posts: 1191
BestInTheWorld said:
I firmly believe we'll have a very good offense in 2021.

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/12/15 ... n-baseball

Yelich, Hiura, Garcia, Narvaez are not the hitters we saw in 2020.


Agree completely regarding Yelich and Hiura but I don't think much of Garcia or Narvaez. Garcia has been around for quite awhile and has had only two good seasons so I think he was a waste of 10 million per season. As for Narvaez he certainly can't be any worse and maybe if he completely ignores Haines he can improve but he flat out looked lost last season.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#33

Posted: February 17, 2021, 12:52 PM Post
Posts: 1191
So does 2020 count or not. If we throw out the bad seasons that many had why do we count the breakouts of guys like Burnes and Williams. To me you can't have it both ways; if we completely ignore the offense completely tanking we shouldn't look at the stats of guys that did well.

For the record I believe in both Burnes and Williams but I also don't think its any guarantee that guys like Garcia and Narvaez will magically hit in 2021. Yelich and Hiura are both supremely talented so I expect bouncebacks but Garcia just isn't very good at all.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#34

Posted: February 17, 2021, 12:58 PM Post
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brewers888 said:
So does 2020 count or not.

It counts. But it counts as a weird, small sample season that has many caveats built into it that should be considered when evaluating a player moving forward.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#35

Posted: February 17, 2021, 1:16 PM Post
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brewers888 said:
So does 2020 count or not. If we throw out the bad seasons that many had why do we count the breakouts of guys like Burnes and Williams. To me you can't have it both ways; if we completely ignore the offense completely tanking we shouldn't look at the stats of guys that did well.

For the record I believe in both Burnes and Williams but I also don't think its any guarantee that guys like Garcia and Narvaez will magically hit in 2021. Yelich and Hiura are both supremely talented so I expect bouncebacks but Garcia just isn't very good at all.


That's a bit extreme... Dude is a career .746 OPS, 103 OPS+ hitter so far.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#36

Posted: February 17, 2021, 2:47 PM Post
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MrAllen said:
brewers888 said:
So does 2020 count or not.

It counts. But it counts as a weird, small sample season that has many caveats built into it that should be considered when evaluating a player moving forward.

Exactly. Go to players splits pages from previous 162-game seasons and look at their month-by-month or even game logs. Production for many players, especially hitters, ebb and flow significantly throughout a 162-game season. By condensing it to 60-games we saw a much smaller snapshot. Regardless of how good or bad some players were, given a longer sample some players would've had positive course corrections and others would've seen further regression.

The key is to avoid coming up with a narrative that you know exactly what a player is capable of based on the most recent 60-games of their performance.

Edit: For some additional context, the Brewers are scheduled to be through 60 games after the first week of June this season.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#37

Posted: February 18, 2021, 8:19 AM Post
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To this day it's clear to me that most people don't realize just how much it hampered many batters not to be able to watch video between at-bats last year. If you need something to base a leap in faith on a return to form for hitters who fell of a cliff last year, uh that's it.


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Online  Re: 2021 Lineup
#38

Posted: February 18, 2021, 8:25 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
To this day it's clear to me that most people don't realize just how much it hampered many batters not to be able to watch video between at-bats last year. If you need something to base a leap in faith on a return to form for hitters who fell of a cliff last year, uh that's it.


That's a really good point, and one that hasn't really been brought up much. It appears that players are not going to have the traditional access to the video room this season, but they will have iPads in the dugout that will allow them to access the same information they would have gotten in the film room. I think that really affected Yelich last year, along with many other star hitters across MLB.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#39

Posted: February 18, 2021, 8:29 AM Post
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Lathund said:
MVP2110 said:
Not sure quite where to put this but are we sure Pina will be the backup catcher? Nottingham is out of options and he's been ok in the majors


We're not sure, but the mere fact that he was tendered a contract would suggest it. Manny is an elite defender, and Nottinghams decent-looking offensive numbers so far are basically all due to a good HR rate, but one that based on his minor league numbers, HR/FB rate and statcast data seems unsustainable. Add to that a 35% strikeout rate. Basically, I think Piña offers both better defense and offense.

But I also think they'll not make their decision until they've seen what they look like in spring; it could still be Nottingham. I suspect they'd want to keep both though. I think they'll try to sneak Nottingham through waivers at the end of ST.


All 3 of their catchers would probably catch a major league deal somewhere else if dropped by Milwaukee. Thus, the Brewers are likely taking a wait and see approach. If one of their catchers is injured in Spring Training they're covered. If another club has a major injury at the catcher position the Brewers would be in a good position to get something in return for a catcher they'd otherwise have to drop for nothing.

When the Brewers traded off Martin Maldonado who would've thought that he'd go on to be in his 11th year in the major leagues. If you catch and play defense (Pina) or can hit a little bit and play catcher (Narvaez and Nottingham) you can play forever in the major leagues.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#40

Posted: February 23, 2021, 9:42 AM Post
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Interesting look at Yelich's 2020 & what it might or might not mean moving forward...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whither-christian-yelich/

"That’s not to say that you can’t take 2020 into account. It really happened, and Yelich was really disappointing. My point is merely this: great hitters have bad stretches. If you’re worried that Yelich has gotten worse, fair enough. I am too! Just know that lots of other people have done this before too, and you just didn’t notice it because those seasons weren’t pandemic-marred. Boring? Certainly. That doesn’t mean it’s not the best answer, though."


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