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2021 Lineup

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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#41

Posted: February 23, 2021, 10:06 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
To this day it's clear to me that most people don't realize just how much it hampered many batters not to be able to watch video between at-bats last year. If you need something to base a leap in faith on a return to form for hitters who fell of a cliff last year, uh that's it.


That's a really good point, and one that hasn't really been brought up much. It appears that players are not going to have the traditional access to the video room this season, but they will have iPads in the dugout that will allow them to access the same information they would have gotten in the film room. I think that really affected Yelich last year, along with many other star hitters across MLB.


The Athletic had an article about this in January:

https://theathletic.com/2294118/2021/01 ... an-yelich/

“To be honest, it sucks,” Cubs shortstop Javier Báez said last September of the lack of in-game video. “I make my adjustments during the game. I watch my swing. I watch where the ball was, where the contact was. I’m really mad that we don’t have it. I know a lot of players are struggling, too. A lot of stars are struggling. I’m just one more. But the way that it is is not the way we play baseball. I need video. I need video to make adjustments during the game.”

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#42

Posted: February 23, 2021, 3:20 PM Post
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It can be argued that video is not a purist way to play the game anyway.
It's not a good look to have these guys whining about it.
A lot of things in the world were different in 2020, deal with it like the rest of us.
Did Carew, Gwynn, Ruth and Mantle have video to hit better?
To be honest, I had no idea guys were this addicted to video during the game.
Just another reason to respect the old guys who didn't have such a crutch.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#43

Posted: February 23, 2021, 3:29 PM Post
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Hopper said:
It can be argued that video is not a purist way to play the game anyway.
It's not a good look to have these guys whining about it.
A lot of things in the world were different in 2020, deal with it like the rest of us.
Did Carew, Gwynn, Ruth and Mantle have video to hit better?
To be honest, I had no idea guys were this addicted to video during the game.
Just another reason to respect the old guys who didn't have such a crutch.


The obvious counter is to point out that those guys weren't exposed to nearly as much upper 90's heat nor the type of movement pitchers get on their breaking pitches in the modern game. Believe me, for the good of the sport, fans should want these hitters to have access to video to level the playing field.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#44

Posted: February 23, 2021, 8:15 PM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
Believe me, for the good of the sport, fans should want these hitters to have access to video to level the playing field.


What is the point of the mound, anyway? Get rid of video, get rid of the mound...


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#45

Posted: February 23, 2021, 8:44 PM Post
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Hitters don't watch video to adjust their swings mid-game...the value in it is that video gives them an idea on how pitchers/catchers are trying to get them and other hitters out with pitch/location sequence. Video lets them see pitch selection and the intended location of a pitch, and they can zip through that footage quickly leading up to their next AB. I'm not sure on exactly what can be shown in the clubhouses, but another value video would bring is old ABs from various relievers to give them that visual scouting report of how they may be pitched to the next time they face each other.

The obvious counter is to point out that those guys weren't exposed to nearly as much upper 90's heat nor the type of movement pitchers get on their breaking pitches in the modern game. Believe me, for the good of the sport, fans should want these hitters to have access to video to level the playing field.

Between games, sure - but I actually prefer no video use during the game....otherwise there will be another Astros-related incident where it's used to gain an unfair advantage between the lines while the game is being played.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#46

Posted: February 26, 2021, 8:08 AM Post
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Some interesting notes in Will Sammon's article in The Athletic https://theathletic.com/2412774/2021/02/26/what-weve-learned-in-spring-about-the-brewers-third-base-and-shortstop-plans/

It appears Arcia will be working on making himself more defensively versatile, including more reps in CF.

Arcia told The Athletic that he is preparing to be used at third base, shortstop and center field. “I’m ready,” Arcia said. “I’m ready for everything they ask. I’ll play wherever they want. I practice every day, taking groundballs at third base. I think it’s more mental. And I feel really good about it.”

Daniel Robertson is leading the group of super-utility players on the 40-man to make the team out of spring

The Brewers also have Mark Mathias and Tim Lopes on the 40-man roster as multi-positional players, but Counsell referred to Robertson as “probably at the top of the list.”


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#47

Posted: February 26, 2021, 10:01 AM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
Hitters don't watch video to adjust their swings mid-game...the value in it is that video gives them an idea on how pitchers/catchers are trying to get them and other hitters out with pitch/location sequence. Video lets them see pitch selection and the intended location of a pitch, and they can zip through that footage quickly leading up to their next AB. I'm not sure on exactly what can be shown in the clubhouses, but another value video would bring is old ABs from various relievers to give them that visual scouting report of how they may be pitched to the next time they face each other.

The obvious counter is to point out that those guys weren't exposed to nearly as much upper 90's heat nor the type of movement pitchers get on their breaking pitches in the modern game. Believe me, for the good of the sport, fans should want these hitters to have access to video to level the playing field.

Between games, sure - but I actually prefer no video use during the game....otherwise there will be another Astros-related incident where it's used to gain an unfair advantage between the lines while the game is being played.

Not sure if the italicized was written by you or if you are quoting someone, but that is the argument from me. Baseball needs offense, fewer strikeouts. If video helps, use it. Christian Yelich probably faces more 98 mph fastballs in a weekend series than Babe Ruth did in his career. I am sure that pitchers with 32 complete games in a season weren't painting the corners at 100 in the ninth inning. And I am not sure that video would have helped you with a spitball anyway. Bob Feller is still talked about because he was such an anomaly as a hard thrower back then, and for all we know he was throwing low 90s. From an ESPN article:

"Feller's numbers from that season are mind-boggling from a modern perspective. He went 26-15 with a 2.18 ERA and 348 strikeouts, but that's not even the fun stuff. He started 42 games and completed 36 of them, throwing 10 shutouts. He pitched 371.1 innings. He even saved four games for good measure. Using a basic pitch count estimator, we guess that Feller threw 5,848 pitches that year. That's 2,118 more than the 3,730 that MLB leader David Price threw in 2014."

You will never, ever be able to convince me that he was routinely throwing 90+. Use the video.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#48

Posted: February 26, 2021, 12:00 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
As long as you dont lead off the pitcher & put your best hitters 7-8-9, there is no right or wrong when it comes to lineup construction. There are near infinite possibilities separated by fractions of runs so small it might net an extra couple wins over the course of 162 games.


I agree with this.

There's a lot of data in baseball, and generally using the most aggregate data yields the best results. However, in baseball there are two leagues with different rules. Having a pitcher bat 9th instead of a position player makes a significant difference. Plus every team is different, so teams should take their specific roster make-up into consideration when making up their lineup. For example, if you have two guys in the lineup with OBPs over .400, it might make sense to have them at the top of the lineup in front of your best hitter. Also, alternating L-R-L can effect how the opposing manager utilizes the bullpen, especially now that relievers have to pitch to three hitters.

Bottom line is that a lot of things go into making a lineup, so one "Bible" isn't there to say that every team should do things one specific way.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#49

Posted: March 02, 2021, 10:59 AM Post
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Top half of Brewers lineup vs the As today is what I think we'll see come OD.

Wong
Garcia (But replace with Cain)
Yelich
Hiura
Shaw


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#50

Posted: March 03, 2021, 1:03 PM Post
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I absolutely don't have a problem with guys using video in game. It's technology that has changed the game and it's there, use it, as long as both sides are using it, and pitchers can use video in between innings to see what batters are doing, and use video to make their own adjustments.

I think what a few people are saying is it wasn't a great look for Baez to complain about it the way he did. The grievance should have went to MLB and the players union and be worded "hey, can't we have tablets/ipads in the dugout??"

As others said, 2020 was a weird year for a lot of people. Everybody. Everyone had to adjust not just how they worked, but how they went about day to day life. Apparently, baseball included , Javy Baez. I get it, being a superstar and suddenly hitting .195 because all the tools you had at your disposal aren't there sucks. Find a way to approach the union and the leadership group and say "hey, this is the way baseball is played now, we need our tools back" in a more diplomatic way. IMO of course!!


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#51

Posted: March 03, 2021, 3:57 PM Post
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Luis Urias gets a mention in this 2021 Breakout Hitter Candidates article published over at FanGraphs today. Also kind of interesting because it gives percentile distribution on his ZiPS projection...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis ... s-hitters/


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#52

Posted: March 03, 2021, 4:18 PM Post
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Nice find! I want to believe. I loved the Urias acquisition at the time and firmly believe that he deserves a mulligan with Covid and the wrist injury. It's also worth noting that even at 700 OPS he's a two win player, and that's the 40th percentile of projected outcomes.

I sincerely believe that Urias has the inside track to be the starting SS, and any noise to the contrary is a combination of not diminishing Arcia's value and happiness and wanted to hedge bets in case things don't go as planned.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#53

Posted: March 03, 2021, 4:23 PM Post
Posts: 924
sveumrules said:
Luis Urias gets a mention in this 2021 Breakout Hitter Candidates article published over at FanGraphs today. Also kind of interesting because it gives percentile distribution on his ZiPS projection...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis ... s-hitters/


Nice article. Thanks for the link. I hope Urias can produce anywhere near the top numbers.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#54

Posted: March 04, 2021, 12:43 PM Post
Posts: 5466
Without a doubt and seeing the ST lineup today, Counsell should have a veru consistent and easy lineup card to fill out.
Wong
Cain
Yelich
Hiura
Shaw/JBJ
Arcia/Urias/Narvaez
Shaw/JBJ
Narvaez/Arcia/Urias

No Cain move up Hiura to 2
Garcia/Narvaez 4
Shaw/JBJ 5
If Narvaez 4-Garcia 6
Garcia 4- Arcia/Urias/Narvaez 6
Shaw/JBJ 7
Whomever left.

No Wong begins Cain, Yelich on down.

Not sure when Yelich is out. Cain-Wong-Hiura-Shaw/JBJ?

Vs RHP do you load Wong, JBJ, Yelich, Hiura? LH RP replace Cain or Garcia for JBJ.
I think the offense will improve quite a bit by JBJ's signing. Really toughens the lineup vs starters both ways.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#55

Posted: March 04, 2021, 2:23 PM Post
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Love all the lefties we have in our lineup now!!

This is how I see it on OD 2021.

Wong - 2B
Cain - CF
Yelich - LF
Hiura - 1B
Shaw - 3B
Narvaez - C
Bradley - RF
Urias - SS


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#56

Posted: March 04, 2021, 3:47 PM Post
Posts: 103
vs RHP (3 year OPS)

2B - Wong (.759)
CF - Cain (.715)
LF - Yelich (1.018)
1B - Hiura (.896)
C - Narvaez (.802
3B - Shaw (.790)
RF - Bradley Jr (.777)
SS - Urias (.545)

vs LHP (3 year OPS)

CF - Cain (.862)
LF - Yelich (.975)
1B - Hiura (.679)
RF - Garcia (.806)
C - Pina (.752)
SS - Urias (.873)
3B - Robertson (.749)
2B - Wong (.681)


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#57

Posted: March 04, 2021, 4:11 PM Post
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I don't like the eidea of both Wong and Cain at the top; Have one high-OBP but overall average-ish hitter at the top, not two IMO.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#58

Posted: March 07, 2021, 11:52 AM Post
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From 2017-2109 Brewers position players averaged about 5,900 PAs a year. Hoping to figure out something like a baseline expectation for the 2021 offense I attempted to distribute those PAs among the 13 players I would break camp with (list below).

That particular player/PA distribution yields about a 753 OPS, a 51 point improvement over last year's 702 mark.

So, what say you, will the Brewers position players post a 2021 OPS closer to the 753 that is roughly projected or the 702 from last season?

PLAYER | PAs | ZiPS OPS

Yelich | 650 | 902
Hiura | 650 | 778
Shaw | 550 | 751
Wong | 550 | 736
Urias | 550 | 736
JBJ | 550 | 726
Garcia | 500 | 756
Cain | 500 | 727
Omar | 400 | 736
Arcia | 350 | 685
Robertson | 350 | 669
Manny | 200 | 688
Vogie | 100 | 810


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#59

Posted: March 07, 2021, 10:00 PM Post
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So, I looked at some numbers:

In Counsell's 4 full years as manager (16-19), only 2 players have gotten 650 PA. Jonathan Villar in 2016 (Chris Carter had 644) and Yelich in 2018.

Yelich has had 76% of his PA's hitting 2nd since he became a Brewer. 6% leadoff, 18% hitting 3rd.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

Twitter: @MKEHiker
Website: http://www.mkehiker.com


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Offline  Re: 2021 Lineup
#60

Posted: March 08, 2021, 2:34 AM Post
Posts: 5466
Baldkin said:
So, I looked at some numbers:

In Counsell's 4 full years as manager (16-19), only 2 players have gotten 650 PA. Jonathan Villar in 2016 (Chris Carter had 644) and Yelich in 2018.

Yelich has had 76% of his PA's hitting 2nd since he became a Brewer. 6% leadoff, 18% hitting 3rd.


Just remember Braun was around to bat 3rd and Cain leadoff. R-L-R.
Pretty obvious Wong-L will be leading off so Yelich will take over #3.


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