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Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million

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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#21

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:35 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
OldSchoolSnapper said:
How is that at all proof that owners can pay whatever? It's the exact opposite. The only way this happens is because they offered 14 years. If Tatis Jr. Is a Hall of Fame player the final 7 years of that contract are going to look like a steal.

The AAV isn't even anything crazy, like at all. Tatis just chose to leave potential money on the table in exchange for now having ZERO risk moving forward.


This deal is extremely player friendly considering the risk. The padres 5 additional years of team control probably run them 80 million IF he's a monster the next 5 years. They bought out those 5 years and then an additional 9/260. The AAV on those free agent years isn't really that far below market. Bryce harper just got 25 per. Arenado got I think 29 per. Yelich got around 30 in new money. Best case scenario aside from a massive shift in additional spending, is he hits free agency and gets a couple extra years of 25-30m per. You'd have a tough time arguing he left more than 100m on the table assuming everything breaks perfectly, and he gets the 340m guarantee. That's a very very easy decision for Fernando.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#22

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:51 PM Post
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jjgott said:

The Brewers have averaged almost 10,000 more fans per game than the Padres over the last 10 years. In that time we have made the postseason 4 times (including two NLCS's) to the Padres 1. Both teams made money off the sale of BAM. CA's top marginal tax rate is almost double WI. You are correct that I want to believe that the Brewers to have the same capacity to sign players as the Padres do.


Hows the average ticket price and food item prices compare? Parking? How many fans don't purchase any foods after tailgating before games?


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#23

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:53 PM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
jjgott said:

The Brewers have averaged almost 10,000 more fans per game than the Padres over the last 10 years. In that time we have made the postseason 4 times (including two NLCS's) to the Padres 1. Both teams made money off the sale of BAM. CA's top marginal tax rate is almost double WI. You are correct that I want to believe that the Brewers to have the same capacity to sign players as the Padres do.


Hows the average ticket price and food item prices compare? Parking? How many fans don't purchase any foods after tailgating before games?


What about the TV contract?


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#24

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:56 PM Post
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It's just getting kind of old to go through this with every large contract after we gave Christian Yelich one last year and had essentially back to back 90 win seasons. We've been better than the Padres for 15 years and it isn't close. We tried to pay Justin Turner. I don't get what people are even upset about anymore. You'd swear we live in the Wendy Selig era if you just swapped out the names involved.


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Online  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#25

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:58 PM Post
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The single biggest financial issue for the Brewers is the disparity in television revenue. There are organizations where the local network broadcast rights agreement makes every single other revenue source pale in comparison. Unfortunately that isn't the case for the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#26

Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:58 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Minor edit, this is what fans who know absolutely nothing about business or even the very basics of financial management think...


Oh jeez. What about baseball makes it anything like a regular business? You don't have to worry about competition (thanks antitrust exemption), you are guaranteed revenue streams from national/local TV deals as well as profit sharing before factoring in ticket sales, concessions, etc., and even if only 10,000 fans show up per game you apparently can still turn around and sell your business for over $1 billion.

I agree with you in one sense that if owners just want fans to look at baseball teams like any other private company then they should just be upfront with fans and say they are going to field a team of minimum salary guys. That would make the most sense "financial management"-wise, right? Reduce labor and overhead costs to increase profits? That seems to be the strategy of the Pirates ownership. Weird how none of the "smart" baseball fans talk about what a good job the Pirates owners are doing at maximizing profit margins.

It's almost like sports exist as a quasi-public trust and teams owe the fans a certain level of looking beyond the bottom dollar. Especially teams like the Brewers that have benefitted from public investment in the very field they play on. I don't think it's unreasonable that fans hope their favorite team manages its budget closer to that of a non-profit than a purely private corporation.

Personally, I'm not arguing Mark A sign every FA possible and he has certainly invested more in the team than Selig did in the last 20 years of ownership. There are of course bad deals and some players make more money than their production on the field warrants. All I was seconding was the fact that owners have the capability to sign whatever players they want, but choose not to for one reason or another. It shouldn't be surprising that a team like the Padres made this deal with Tatis, Jr.. I hope we have a young player of his caliber we can make the same commitment to soon. I always remember how pumped I was when Braun signed his first extension.


Last edited by jjgott on February 17, 2021, 9:05 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Online  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#27

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:02 PM Post
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wallus said:
What about the TV contract?

The Padres 2012 broadcast rights deal was substantially larger than the Brewers deal (which I believe the Brewers had signed a few years earlier)...

MLB close to approving Padres’ TV deal

Major League Baseball has signed off on the structure of the Padres’ 20-year television deal with Fox Sports, two sources familiar with the situation said, and there are believed to be no remaining obstacles for formal approval.

An official announcement could be forthcoming as soon as next week.

The deal could be worth up to $1.2 billion to the Padres -- an average of $50 million a year in rights fees plus a signing bonus estimated as high as $200 million.

The Padres also received a 20 percent equity stake in Fox Sports San Diego, the new TV home of the club.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#28

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:05 PM Post
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So, Tatis has exactly 2 years of service time - meaning he's a free agent in four years. Let's break down a hypothetical contract:

2021 - $1M
2022 - $10M
2023 - $15M
2024 - $24M

Total Pre-FA salary: $40M

That leaves 10 years at $300M - which is a convenient $30M a year for the time frame.

No doubt that if Tatis has some really big seasons in the next few years he could get more. But what he got doesn't seem unreasonable. He's locking in $340M. If waits and goes year to year - he could be losing $50-100M. But on the flip side, one injury and he's toast. It's hard to fault someone for locking in this kind of cash.

The big thing unknown is what will a future CBA contract do to revenues. If the players get more money he might be giving up quite a bit more potential dollars. But that's just potential. It's hard to believe that making $30M a year is going to be that 'low'.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#29

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:08 PM Post
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wibadgers23 said:
Again I ask - where in holy hell is SD getting all this money?


The Padres organization either owns or partially owns a TON of property immediately around their ballpark (which happened to be publicly funded itself) and have stake in many mixed residential/commercial property developments surrounding the area. They likely make more money as an organization for non-baseball activities than gameday revenues, and those revenue checks are cashed year round no matter what's going on at Petco.

It also should be noted that the Padres are one of just two MLB teams that doesn't share its market with any other major 4 sports league teams - so they don't have to compete with other franchises for fan $'s...meaning even a fanbase that is fickle and isn't as engaged as WI sports fans gives the Padres more money than what Brewer fans give them simply due to lack of competition. That goes for TV dollars, too. Oakland somehow is the other, although they basically have all the SF teams in their backyard. They are the pro sports marketplace for San Diego - which is a larger market than Milwaukee and their overall metro area population of ~3.5 Million people is closer to the overall WI state population than the Milwaukee/Madison metro area.


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Online  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#30

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:13 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
It also should be noted that the Padres are one of just two MLB teams that doesn't share its market with any other major 4 sports league teams - so they don't have to compete with other franchises for fan $'s...meaning even a fanbase that is fickle and isn't as engaged as WI sports fans gives the Padres more money than what Brewer fans give them simply due to lack of competition. That goes for TV dollars, too.

It is a good point, and I would tack on having a market monopoly on sponsorship dollars as well. Being the only show in town gives them a lot of leverage when it comes to dealing with the companies seeking to market to the local sports fan demographic. Obviously that provides additional incentives and value to their media rights holders as well.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#31

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:20 PM Post
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If the Brewers did something like this, the same guys calling our owner cheap would be first in line calling it a dumb deal that would come back to haunt them in years 11 - 14.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#32

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:27 PM Post
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homer said:
If the Brewers did something like this, the same guys calling our owner cheap would be first in line calling it a dumb deal that would come back to haunt them in years 11 - 14.


and I bet the same thing is happening in SD as we speak...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Online  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#33

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:38 PM Post
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homer said:
If the Brewers did something like this, the same guys calling our owner cheap would be first in line calling it a dumb deal that would come back to haunt them in years 11 - 14.


This is just my own personal viewpoint but I think I would be far more excited in the present moment about signing such an unbelievable talent to a long term deal than I would be scared about the contract going bad 10+ years down the road.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#34

Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:50 PM Post
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A big big point to consider, the bad years of Tatis are likely ridiculously far off. A decade from now $30mil a year won't be like it is now. Heck, go back to when Braun signed his extension that gave him $20mil a year. Look where that $20mil would have ranked in 2011 compared to today...$20mil isn't that insane of a salary to be handing out.

Considering this locks up 26-32 year old Tatis and only goes to his age 36 season this might end up a great deal if he is truly a super star player. By the time he is 32-36 salary inflation may make his salary far from top of MLB earners. (those year figures may be slightly off...just quick glances and calculations).

This is so much different than guys signing huge contracts at 28-30+ where their decline and bad years are right around the corner.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#35

Posted: February 17, 2021, 11:00 PM Post
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Massive endorsement bitcoins have to be coming his way as well. Possibly the most exciting young player I've seen since Griffey.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#36

Posted: February 18, 2021, 1:21 AM Post
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In my view the “cheap owner” stuff only applies to signing contracts they are overpays in exchange for a few extra wins.

Every single owner in baseball would have locked in Tatis for this price. It’s a bargain. ARod made way more money than Tatis is going to make. The Padres got lucky that MLB is facing some uncertainty right now.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#37

Posted: February 18, 2021, 6:28 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee
OldSchoolSnapper said:
It's just getting kind of old to go through this with every large contract after we gave Christian Yelich one last year and had essentially back to back 90 win seasons. We've been better than the Padres for 15 years and it isn't close. We tried to pay Justin Turner. I don't get what people are even upset about anymore. You'd swear we live in the Wendy Selig era if you just swapped out the names involved.

Agreed, why do people think that the Brewers cannot do a contract like this? They literally just did this last year with Yelich. 9 years and $215M is an average of $24M/year and locks him up until he is 37. Tatis has an AAV of $24M and is locked up until he is 36. I get its overall more $ but that's because he's younger... Its still locking them both up until their late 30s. The Brewers have shown they can offer contracts like this.


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Online  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#38

Posted: February 18, 2021, 6:36 AM Post
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I agree that the Tatis contract extension isn’t outrageous by any means as compared to likely market value, but when you pair it with some of their other free agent contracts over the past few off-seasons it is a bit surprising how much an apparent “small market” team has been willing to commit financially.

Joel Sherman pointed out that they now have four infielders on large contracts (of varying degrees), and this doesn’t count the Wil Myers contract which wasn’t small either or the $56 million left on Yu Darvish’s contract:

The Padres infield of Hosmer ($144), Ha-Seong Kim ($28M), Tatis Jr. ($340M) and Machado ($300M) — the $812M infield.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#39

Posted: February 18, 2021, 8:29 AM Post
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My thoughts don't go to the contract Tatis just signed, they go to the one Ronald Acuna signed last year. There's no way Acuna's agent is getting a Christmas card this year.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#40

Posted: February 18, 2021, 9:01 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
My thoughts don't go to the contract Tatis just signed, they go to the one Ronald Acuna signed last year. There's no way Acuna's agent is getting a Christmas card this year.


Totally different personal circumstances around those contracts. Tatis grew up in a big league household with tons of money. He could gamble and wait for a massive deal. Acuna didn't come from that background and if he got hurt or took a FB to the head and couldn't play again, he's not going to get that payday. It's all about risk of the next contract and Tatis has less risk because of his situation.


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