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Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million

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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#41

Posted: February 18, 2021, 9:11 AM Post
Posts: 5327
ClosetBrewerFan said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
It's just getting kind of old to go through this with every large contract after we gave Christian Yelich one last year and had essentially back to back 90 win seasons. We've been better than the Padres for 15 years and it isn't close. We tried to pay Justin Turner. I don't get what people are even upset about anymore. You'd swear we live in the Wendy Selig era if you just swapped out the names involved.

Agreed, why do people think that the Brewers cannot do a contract like this? They literally just did this last year with Yelich. 9 years and $215M is an average of $24M/year and locks him up until he is 37. Tatis has an AAV of $24M and is locked up until he is 36. I get its overall more $ but that's because he's younger... Its still locking them both up until their late 30s. The Brewers have shown they can offer contracts like this.

Brewers contract was already on top a previous extension. This contract is while Tatis is still in the midsts of pre-Arb. Padres likely could have gone 5 seasons and paid him a total of 50million. I mention that because they'll clearly pay him more upfront, and the question becomes does that inhibit them from surrounding him with better teammates through FA during the next 5seasons? Im sure statheads will compare what kind of WAR value he provides through his next 14years and justify SD as getting more return than paying him. Just how much WAR does he accrue after the last 9 seasons and what he is paid for them? Vs including the already team controlled years.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#42

Posted: February 18, 2021, 9:56 AM Post
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Posts: 900
Location: Chicago
Fear The Chorizo said:
wibadgers23 said:
Again I ask - where in holy hell is SD getting all this money?


The Padres organization either owns or partially owns a TON of property immediately around their ballpark (which happened to be publicly funded itself) and have stake in many mixed residential/commercial property developments surrounding the area. They likely make more money as an organization for non-baseball activities than gameday revenues, and those revenue checks are cashed year round no matter what's going on at Petco.

It also should be noted that the Padres are one of just two MLB teams that doesn't share its market with any other major 4 sports league teams - so they don't have to compete with other franchises for fan $'s...meaning even a fanbase that is fickle and isn't as engaged as WI sports fans gives the Padres more money than what Brewer fans give them simply due to lack of competition. That goes for TV dollars, too. Oakland somehow is the other, although they basically have all the SF teams in their backyard. They are the pro sports marketplace for San Diego - which is a larger market than Milwaukee and their overall metro area population of ~3.5 Million people is closer to the overall WI state population than the Milwaukee/Madison metro area.


San Diego is only ahead of three clubs: Kansas City, Milwaukee and Cincinnati in terms of market size. While it is true that they don't "share" their market with anyone, they are also hemmed in by the Pacific Ocean, Los Angeles to the North, and Mexico to the South so there isn't a ton of potential for market expansion.

However, the Padres did a similar splurge once before when they signed James Shields and traded for Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton, Ian Kennedy etc. then broke the team up a year or so later. At least this time around they have Machado and Tatis and not a bunch of veterans in their 30s.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#43

Posted: February 18, 2021, 9:59 AM Post
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Posts: 1088
ewitkows said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
My thoughts don't go to the contract Tatis just signed, they go to the one Ronald Acuna signed last year. There's no way Acuna's agent is getting a Christmas card this year.


Totally different personal circumstances around those contracts. Tatis grew up in a big league household with tons of money. He could gamble and wait for a massive deal. Acuna didn't come from that background and if he got hurt or took a FB to the head and couldn't play again, he's not going to get that payday. It's all about risk of the next contract and Tatis has less risk because of his situation.


Umm, the situations aren't 240 million dollars different.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#44

Posted: February 18, 2021, 11:46 AM Post
Posts: 4611
When there are several teams willing to take on overpriced players because they're marginally better than what they had contracts like this aren't as risky for small market teams as it first appears. The risk is not getting much of a return in prospects if he doesn't live up to his contract. Giancarlo Stanton being a prime example. The problem for the Marlins wasn't financial ruin due to his contract as much as the loss of prospects in return when the inevitably had to trade him.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#45

Posted: February 18, 2021, 12:54 PM Post
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People do realize he's not getting a $340M check today, right? Haven't seen the breakdown yet but he's most likely getting only a few million a year the first couple seasons then probably settling in the $30-$35M a year range the last 10-ish years. And in those year the Padres will spend less money on other players and will be called cheap and greedy at that point.

There's only two outcomes from this contract.

1. In about five years, he'll be the superstar player everyone hopes he would be but then he'll complain that the team sucks because they can't afford anyone to surround him with so he's traded to the Yankees.

2. He goes total bust and turns into an albatross that keeps the franchise in the gutter for a decade.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#46

Posted: February 18, 2021, 1:03 PM Post
Posts: 5707
Location: New Berlin, WI
True Blue Brew Crew said:
ewitkows said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
My thoughts don't go to the contract Tatis just signed, they go to the one Ronald Acuna signed last year. There's no way Acuna's agent is getting a Christmas card this year.


Totally different personal circumstances around those contracts. Tatis grew up in a big league household with tons of money. He could gamble and wait for a massive deal. Acuna didn't come from that background and if he got hurt or took a FB to the head and couldn't play again, he's not going to get that payday. It's all about risk of the next contract and Tatis has less risk because of his situation.


Umm, the situations aren't 240 million dollars different.


It's really not that simple though. Acuna's is definitely more team friendly, but the $100 million only bought out a max of 3 years of free agency if both options are exercised(will be $123 million if both options are exercised). I think we did the exercise earlier that a player could maybe get close to $75 million during team control years if they were a monster every year. So around $17 million per year for the 3 FA years. Yes pretty team friendly, but also worth noting Acuna was 20 years old at the time of signing the contract. Worst case scenario for him, he left around $50 million on the table assuming he could get $35 per instead of $17. He also will have another opportunity at age 30 to hit free agency and get another big contract. If he's good to the point that he was truly underpaid in his late 20s, he'll get plenty of money for his seasons in his 30s.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#47

Posted: February 18, 2021, 2:49 PM Post
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Posts: 774
jerichoholicninja said:
People do realize he's not getting a $340M check today, right? Haven't seen the breakdown yet but he's most likely getting only a few million a year the first couple seasons then probably settling in the $30-$35M a year range the last 10-ish years. And in those year the Padres will spend less money on other players and will be called cheap and greedy at that point.

There's only two outcomes from this contract.

1. In about five years, he'll be the superstar player everyone hopes he would be but then he'll complain that the team sucks because they can't afford anyone to surround him with so he's traded to the Yankees.

2. He goes total bust and turns into an albatross that keeps the franchise in the gutter for a decade.

I knew I saw a tweet today with an outline of a breakdown, I don't think it's inclusive of everything but enough to go on. Plus it's from Heyman so all the grains of salt apply.

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/13 ... 1430792206

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman

As I just said on @MLBNetwork Tatis Jr. will be paid $34M over his next 4 years and $306M over his 10 free agent years for $340M. He’ll get a $10M signing bonus w/salaries of $1M $5M $7M and $11M in 1st 4 years. The deal tops out at $36M. Theres a no-trade clause, no opt-outs.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#48

Posted: February 19, 2021, 8:53 PM Post
Posts: 5432
Jopal78! said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
wibadgers23 said:
Again I ask - where in holy hell is SD getting all this money?


The Padres organization either owns or partially owns a TON of property immediately around their ballpark (which happened to be publicly funded itself) and have stake in many mixed residential/commercial property developments surrounding the area. They likely make more money as an organization for non-baseball activities than gameday revenues, and those revenue checks are cashed year round no matter what's going on at Petco.

It also should be noted that the Padres are one of just two MLB teams that doesn't share its market with any other major 4 sports league teams - so they don't have to compete with other franchises for fan $'s...meaning even a fanbase that is fickle and isn't as engaged as WI sports fans gives the Padres more money than what Brewer fans give them simply due to lack of competition. That goes for TV dollars, too. Oakland somehow is the other, although they basically have all the SF teams in their backyard. They are the pro sports marketplace for San Diego - which is a larger market than Milwaukee and their overall metro area population of ~3.5 Million people is closer to the overall WI state population than the Milwaukee/Madison metro area.


San Diego is only ahead of three clubs: Kansas City, Milwaukee and Cincinnati in terms of market size. While it is true that they don't "share" their market with anyone, they are also hemmed in by the Pacific Ocean, Los Angeles to the North, and Mexico to the South so there isn't a ton of potential for market expansion.

However, the Padres did a similar splurge once before when they signed James Shields and traded for Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton, Ian Kennedy etc. then broke the team up a year or so later. At least this time around they have Machado and Tatis and not a bunch of veterans in their 30s.


I'd argue being extremely close to Mexico and Tijuana - with a metro population approaching 2.5 million people - carries a plenty large potential for market expansion. Tijuana and San Diego are essentially the same metro area separated by the border only. "Market' how MLB defines it is far different than overall metro area as well.

Milwaukee is hemmed in by Chicago to the south, Lake Michigan to the east, and no large urban centers north and west of Madison/Milwaukee worth a darn in terms of market revenue.


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#49

Posted: February 24, 2021, 10:49 AM Post
Posts: 4037
The Padres will be fun to watch this year. They are a team on the rise. It was a great signing!!!

Tatis Jr is the most talented Shortstop since Alex Rodriguez. That left side of the infield may not be quite Brooks Robinson & Mark Belanger but it’s one of the best defensive 3B/SS combos ever.

I’ll probably end up watching more Padres games than Brewers games this year, especially if the Brewers play as boring a style of Baseball as they did last year. (Will definitely tune in to watch Woodruff & Burnes pitch though)

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#50

Posted: February 24, 2021, 11:10 AM Post
Posts: 4037
MillerParkSouth said:
All owners can afford to sign whoever they want, they just choose not to. It’s as simple as that. Good for Padres fans.


100% correct!

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Online  Re: Fernando Tatis Jr. Extension - 14 years, $340 million
#51

Posted: February 24, 2021, 11:51 AM Post
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Posts: 10377
3and2Fastball said:

100% opinion


Fixed it for you!


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