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Brewer Arbitration Estimates

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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#21

Posted: October 18, 2021, 5:30 PM Post
Posts: 100
reillymcshane said:
mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up. Here's what they have for the Brewers:

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)
Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)
Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)
Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)
Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)
Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)
Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)
Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)
Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)
Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)
Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)
Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)
Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)
Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

Total raises: $25.475

I added the raise from 2021 that the player would get. I didn't have salaries for Peterson and a couple of fringe guys - like Maile - but I assume they got around the minimum. No matter, even if a bit off - the totals will be close.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/ ... -2022.html


My guess is you add another $5.5M to the Adames and Burnes pair.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#22

Posted: October 19, 2021, 5:32 AM Post
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Posts: 4504
sixtolezcano16 said:
reillymcshane said:
mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up. Here's what they have for the Brewers:

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)
Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)
Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)
Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)
Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)
Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)
Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)
Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)
Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)
Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)
Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)
Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)
Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)
Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

Total raises: $25.475

I added the raise from 2021 that the player would get. I didn't have salaries for Peterson and a couple of fringe guys - like Maile - but I assume they got around the minimum. No matter, even if a bit off - the totals will be close.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/ ... -2022.html


My guess is you add another $5.5M to the Adames and Burnes pair.


That really isn't the way arbitration works. Those guys will be going through it for the first time, and will be limited on how much they can make, regardless of how productive they are.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#23

Posted: October 19, 2021, 6:50 AM Post
Posts: 16246
turborickey said:
MrTPlush said:
Rowdy is a lock. Even if there is no DH and they pick up a different 1B.

That being said I fully expect him to disappoint. He basically mashed in July and then wasn't even MLB roster worthy the rest of the year.


Except for providing the majority of the offense in the play-offs of course.


Really means nothing though. Jeff Suppan was once the NLCS MVP, sure didn't mean much for future results.

I am not a Rowdy Tellez hater by any means. I was actually one of the people pretty optimistic when we picked him up and thought he could be useful. I just don't think he is some guy we should just be locking into the 1B job before the offseason even starts. I think the optimism in him going into next year is a bit too high.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#24

Posted: October 19, 2021, 7:16 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
turborickey said:
MrTPlush said:
Rowdy is a lock. Even if there is no DH and they pick up a different 1B.

That being said I fully expect him to disappoint. He basically mashed in July and then wasn't even MLB roster worthy the rest of the year.


Except for providing the majority of the offense in the play-offs of course.


Really means nothing though. Jeff Suppan was once the NLCS MVP, sure didn't mean much for future results.

I am not a Rowdy Tellez hater by any means. I was actually one of the people pretty optimistic when we picked him up and thought he could be useful. I just don't think he is some guy we should just be locking into the 1B job before the offseason even starts. I think the optimism in him going into next year is a bit too high.


Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#25

Posted: October 19, 2021, 7:44 AM Post
Posts: 16246
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.


Seems quite a bit of people consider the entire infield a lock, which includes Tellez. I have definitely seen more than one person call him the 1B going into next year.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#26

Posted: October 19, 2021, 8:04 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.


Seems quite a bit of people consider the entire infield a lock, which includes Tellez. I have definitely seen more than one person call him the 1B going into next year.


I mean, as the roster is currently constructed, he pretty much is the 1B going into next year by default. It personally wouldn't surprise me, though, if 1B is a spot they look to get a needle-mover bat. Who knows ... maybe Tellez will be used as a trade chip to acquire said bat? But if they choose to devote limited resources to other areas of the roster (3B, RF), then I don't have much issue rolling with Tellez, or even a Tellez/Hiura platoon to begin the year. I think it's a given that there will be a few unknowns going into the 2022 season.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#27

Posted: October 19, 2021, 8:24 AM Post
Posts: 2294
MrTPlush said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.


Seems quite a bit of people consider the entire infield a lock, which includes Tellez. I have definitely seen more than one person call him the 1B going into next year.


Well if money is tight, it might be easier to start the season with him. If he produces, you have a starter at min. wage. If not, that position is one of the easier ones to find in a midseason trade. I'd much rather do that then pay Escobar market rate.

I wouldn't mind Yelich getting spring training reps at 1B.

Edit: I guess I was assuming Tellez was pre-arby. If he is going to cost $1.9M, I am fine with finding a better player in the offseason, than hoping Tellez is good enough.


Last edited by Roderick on October 20, 2021, 8:36 AM, edited 2 times in total.

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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#28

Posted: October 19, 2021, 8:36 AM Post
Posts: 6247
MrTPlush said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.


Seems quite a bit of people consider the entire infield a lock, which includes Tellez. I have definitely seen more than one person call him the 1B going into next year.


I think that's the dilemma with a 95 win team that will be on a budget - their largest contracts all seem to reside in the OF, and unfortunately that's the position group that probably needs to be improved the most. That really hamstrings them unless the Brewers want to move pieces of a decent looking infield to help acquire OF upgrades. To me that might be reshuffling deck chairs that won't wind up moving the needle much.

The Brewers have to hope Yelich improves offensively next season - they are stuck with him for better or worse, so we have to hope it's for better at this point. If they get better production from him alot of the offensive concerns for this club don't look as dire. He doesn't have to be one of the top 2-3 offensive players in the league, but he needs to be all-star caliber to really make things go.

I think Avi is gone and then the Brewers try to bring in another OF via trade or FA this winter that can play all 3 positions.

I think Tellez penciled in at 1B is just fine....and if Hiura isn't traded in the offseason he probably goes into next year as a potential platoon mate/DH option (if the new CBA leads to a DH in the NL). That wouldn't just be handed to Hiura, he'd need to earn it - but that would be the best way the current roster could shake out IMO.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#29

Posted: October 19, 2021, 2:46 PM Post
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Posts: 6218
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
sixtolezcano16 said:
reillymcshane said:
mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up. Here's what they have for the Brewers:

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)
Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)
Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)
Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)
Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)
Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)
Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)
Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)
Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)
Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)
Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)
Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)
Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)
Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

Total raises: $25.475

I added the raise from 2021 that the player would get. I didn't have salaries for Peterson and a couple of fringe guys - like Maile - but I assume they got around the minimum. No matter, even if a bit off - the totals will be close.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/ ... -2022.html


My guess is you add another $5.5M to the Adames and Burnes pair.


That really isn't the way arbitration works. Those guys will be going through it for the first time, and will be limited on how much they can make, regardless of how productive they are.


Not perfect comps, but Max Fried and Mike Soroka were first year arby in 2021. They earned $3.5M and $2.8M respectively. Jack Flaherty got $3.9M. Walker Buehler signed a 2-yr/$8M deal for '21 & '22 for his first two arby years. Our own Brandon Woodruff got $3.275 in his first year of arby.

For Shortstop, Dansby Swanson got $6.0M. Cory Seager's path through arby was $4.0/$7.6M/$13.75, while Baez was $5.2M/$10M/$11.65M and Lindor was $10.5M/$17.5M/$22.3M.

Most of these are one-year deals signed to avoid arby, which I guess will happen with the Brewers and their players. Plus, we had the Covid effects, so no idea how much that may have altered things.

With Beuhler and Flaherty (both Cy Young caliber guys) getting under $4M, the estimate of $4M for Burnes could be very close. Adames could be anywhere, depending on who they see as a comp, but if these few examples I looked up are good for anything, I think Adames could be more expensive than Burnes, even though Burnes may be the better player.

Whatever the final tally, we have a lot of deserving players who are going to start getting a lot more expensive.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#30

Posted: November 27, 2021, 3:15 PM Post
Posts: 10285
Outlander said:
Not sure what they used for Super 2 cutoff but there is certainly no guarantee that Urias will eligible for arbitration.


Looks like he is

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/ ... rvice.html


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#31

Posted: November 27, 2021, 9:09 PM Post
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Outlander said:
Not sure what they used for Super 2 cutoff but there is certainly no guarantee that Urias will eligible for arbitration.

Super 2 has been set at 2 years, 116 days.

Urias has 2 year, 120 days of service. Thus, he qualifies.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#32

Posted: November 30, 2021, 5:32 PM Post

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Posts: 4369
jandel gustave and jace peterson each signed one-year contracts, avoiding arbitration.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#33

Posted: November 30, 2021, 5:55 PM Post
Posts: 10285
Details on Gustave

https://twitter.com/byrobertmurray/stat ... 30338?s=21


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#34

Posted: November 30, 2021, 5:57 PM Post

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reillymcshane said:
mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up. Here's what they have for the Brewers:

Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/ ... -2022.html

split deal for jandel gustave. if he's in the majors, $0.675mm.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#35

Posted: November 30, 2021, 6:46 PM Post
Posts: 10285
Rowdy is back 1.94 million

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/statu ... 52160?s=21


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#36

Posted: November 30, 2021, 7:05 PM Post
Posts: 10285
Lots of work to do to avoid a bunch of hearings

The #Brewers have tendered contracts to SS Willy Adames, RHP Corbin Burnes, LHP Josh Hader, RHP Adrian Houser, LHP Eric Lauer, C Omar Narváez, LHP Brent Suter and INF Luis Urías.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#37

Posted: November 30, 2021, 7:09 PM Post
Posts: 10285
Woody too

https://twitter.com/adammccalvy/status/ ... 56676?s=21


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#38

Posted: December 01, 2021, 3:34 PM Post
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What about Milner? I thought he was arby eligible?


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#39

Posted: December 01, 2021, 8:05 PM Post
Posts: 2627
Location: Madison, WI
Anyone see an estimate on Urias? Based on some super 2 infielder numbers in the past, I'd guess somewhere between 1.9-2.2 million.


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Offline  Re: Brewer Arbitration Estimates
#40

Posted: December 01, 2021, 8:29 PM Post

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bork said:
What about Milner? I thought he was arby eligible?

nope. just over two years service time.


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