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18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?

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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#1

Posted: July 08, 2007, 8:50 AM Post
Posts: 123
Might as well get this started so we can move past the debacle of the just-ended road trip.

10 at home--Colorado for 3, Arizona for 4, SF for 3

8 on the road--Cinci for 4, StLouis for 4 (with a DH on Saturday)

This is all we really have left before the trade deadline. If they really pour it on they could shut down the Cubs or others ideas of making a deadline deal. If they struggle they may be forced to make a move of their own to patch up whatever Doug and Ned feel ails them.

With no off days we can expect the top 2 starters to each get 4 starts during this stretch, #3, #4, & #5 to go 3 times, and one of our long guys to get the spot start in the double-dip. Who do you put in the 3/4/5 spots? I'd be tempted to put Suppan, Cappy, and Vargas there and go with Sheets and Bush at 1 & 2 right now. That allows those two to pitch in each series except against SF.

So I will start with my hopes:

2/3 from the Rockies
3/4 from the Dbacks
2/3 from the Giants

2/4 from the Reds
2/4 from the Cards

11-7 overall, perhaps stretching a bit on the homestand as I could see them dropping an extra game to either the Snakes or the old men, but I could see a sweep of the Rockies or Giants too. Would be nice to take 1 more from the road trip (beating the Reds one more time doesn't seem all that hard), but I figured if they lose another home game they could make it up by winning another here.

That would put us at 60-46. Cubs would have to go 15-2 to catch us...................even if they went 12-5, they would still be 3 games back. A more normal stretch of 10-7 would have them at 5. To really knock them out we probably need to do better or they need to hit a slump, but I would take that at the trade deadline.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#2

Posted: July 08, 2007, 8:59 AM Post
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I think we come out strong on the home stand but I worry about the road games in the division. Being my normal conservative self I'll go with 10-8.

The second half is where our depth will shine in general though so I think we win the division by a couple games.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#3

Posted: July 08, 2007, 9:00 AM Post
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Pessimism tells me to say 8-10, but I am hoping we can at least go 10-8 or 11-7.

"When a piano falls on Yadier Molina get back to me, four letter." - Me, upon reading a ESPN update referencing the 'injury-plagued Cardinals'


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#4

Posted: July 08, 2007, 9:33 AM Post
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1/3 from the Rockies
2/4 from the Dbacks
2/3 from the Giants

1/4 from the Reds
1/4 from the Cards

7-11 in that stretch. By the time the Cards are finished with us, we will be in 2nd place. We will free fall faster than a 300 lb meteor. But there's always next year.

The poster previously known as Robin19, now @RFCoder
EA Sports...It's in the game...until we arbitrarily decide to shut off the server.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#5

Posted: July 08, 2007, 9:45 AM Post
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7-11 in that stretch. By the time the Cards are finished with us, we will be in 2nd place.


So you have the Cubs going 12-5 huh? At 11-6 they would still be just tied with us. Somehow I don't see the Cubs playing that well.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#6

Posted: July 08, 2007, 10:36 AM Post
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I can see this:

2/3 from COL
2/4 from ARZ
3/3 from SF

3/4 at CIN
2/4 at STL

That is a 12-6 guess from me. I'm sticking to it.

I'll guess the Cubs do this:

3/4 from HOU
3/4 from SF
1/3 from ARZ

0/3 at STL (yeah, I'm mean)
2/3 at CIN

So that's 9-8 from the Cubs from me. I'm sticking to that, too.

So I guess, I'm guessing on a 7-game lead (over the Cubs) after July 29th. I'm not going to bother coming up with guesses for other teams in our division. The Cards, I guess would be the only ones to consider.

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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#7

Posted: July 08, 2007, 10:12 PM Post
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I know this may be early and things could obviously change for multiple reasons, but going with the probable pitchers from the MLB site here is the opposition for the 10 game homestand:

Francis (3.87) vs Sheets
Lopez (4.83) vs Suppan
Cook (4.68) vs Capuano
Davis (4.26) vs Bush
???(D-backs 5th starter) vs Vargas
Webb (3.37) vs Sheets
Hernandez (4.54) vs Suppan
Lowry (3.35) vs Capuano
Lincecum (4.63) vs Bush
Zito (4.90) vs Vargas

Couple of tough tasks for Benny and some other tough matchups as well, but I like our bats at home against this lineup. The best is Webb, hopefully Sheets can be acey that day.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#8

Posted: July 08, 2007, 10:55 PM Post
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Sheets may throw 2-3 innings on Tuesday. Would we start him on Friday, or wait until Sat?

So you have the Cubs going 12-5 huh? At 11-6 they would still be just tied with us. Somehow I don't see the Cubs playing that well.

Didn't calculate that. The Cubs will go 10-7, so I guess we'll still have one game on them.

The poster previously known as Robin19, now @RFCoder
EA Sports...It's in the game...until we arbitrarily decide to shut off the server.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#9

Posted: July 08, 2007, 11:34 PM Post
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Didn't calculate that. The Cubs will go 10-7, so I guess we'll still have one game on them.

People have been predicting the Brewers' fall out of first for about two months now. It appears that many of those predictions have been fueled more by emotion than reason, however. While the frustrations are understandable (and shared by most at brewerfan.net), if a person isn't going to take the time to see if their prognostication is physically possible, doesn't it belong more in the vent thread than anywhere else?


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#10

Posted: July 09, 2007, 10:37 AM Post
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9-9...I will take..

The Brewers just need to keep making Par....Greens and Fairways...

Make the Cubs make some birdies to catch the Brewers.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#11

Posted: July 09, 2007, 10:39 AM Post
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I don't have any numerical expectations other than hoping they play much better than they did on this last road trip.

I expect that 4.5 game lead to grow a bit also.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#12

Posted: July 09, 2007, 10:41 AM Post
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StLouis for 4 (with a DH on Saturday)


Why?

"We all know he is going to be a flaming pile of Suppan by that time." -fondybrewfan


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#13

Posted: July 09, 2007, 10:43 AM Post
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There was a rainout earlier in the year down there.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#14

Posted: July 10, 2007, 5:56 PM Post
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At first glance i thought DH stood for that thing the AL uses to increase fan support and revenue.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#15

Posted: July 10, 2007, 6:15 PM Post
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9-9...I will take..

The Brewers just need to keep making Par....Greens and Fairways...

Make the Cubs make some birdies to catch the Brewers.


Yuck...I know we're not 24-10 anymore, but I still expect a lot more from this team than a mediocre 9-9 over a trip that spans 10 games at home and 8 on the road, especially against mostly mediocre competition.

Another 9-1 homestand would be just what the doctor ordered. Sounds unrealistic, but we've done it already this year -- twice. I'd be satisfied with 7-3 or better over the next homestand, but we WILL need to continue to be absuredly dominant at home as long as we continue to suck on the road.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#16

Posted: July 11, 2007, 2:45 AM Post
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Road records -
Colorado 18-25
Arizona 22-24
San Fran 17-27

Home records -
Cincy 20-26
STL 21-22

So I guess that means we should probably go something like this:
2/3
2/4
2/3
3/4
2/4

Which leads us to an 11-7 record, definitely doable, and would keep us in first by at least the margin we hold now.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#17

Posted: July 11, 2007, 3:51 AM Post
Posts: 109
My Predictions are:

3/3 from Col.
3/4 from Ari.
3/3 from S.F.
9/10 from the home stand

2/4 from Cin.
3/4 from Stl.
5/8 from the road trip

14/18 from the next 18 games

63-43 will be the Brewers record after this trip.

Now I know this might not be possible but I have a feeling the Brewers will get hot right out the gates from the all star break and start beating up teams.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#18

Posted: July 11, 2007, 4:20 AM Post
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I want to say 12-6, although I won't say against who. Every mediocre opponent we are supposed to handle on the road owns us. 1-3 from PIT and 1-2 from the Nats? I just hope we don't wilt in Cincy and StL.

We tend to handle the so-so teams at home, so I hope that form holds up.


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Offline  18 games out of the break in 17 days--Expectations?
#19

Posted: July 11, 2007, 11:14 AM Post
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I'll say they win 7 at home, and 4 on the road, 11-7.


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