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Why not Graffy in LF instead of Mench

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Online  Why not Graffy in LF instead of Mench
#21

Posted: June 27, 2007, 2:51 AM Post
Posts: 2851
Given the relative dearth of ABs for Jenkins platoon partner finding a willing lefty killer maybe difficult. For a middle infielder Graffy's can actually hit pretty well. I agree with Rluzinski that Rottino's number don't translate into offensive superstar, but they do strongly suggest an adequate platoon partner for Jenkins and one who won't be offended by small playing time. As a bonus he gives us better IF options too then playing Graffy at first.


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Offline  Why not Graffy in LF instead of Mench
#22

Posted: June 27, 2007, 2:54 AM Post
Posts: 3031
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As I tried to show, he's actually changed his approach at the plate since becoming a Brewer. I think that complicates the small sample explanation.


True Russ, but don't limit Mench's regression to just since he became a Brewer. The numbers show he has been in regression for 4 straight years. His production against LHPs has declined at the same rate as his production against RHPs.

Mench is bad, and all indications are he will coontinue to get worse.

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Offline  Why not Graffy in LF instead of Mench
#23

Posted: June 27, 2007, 2:55 AM Post
Posts: 9308
Lowest Pitches Per PA, min 150 PA:
 [b]PLAYER TEAM TPA P/PA[/b] [b]Johnny Estrada[/b] MIL 255 3.00 [b]Kevin Mench[/b] MIL 161 3.08 Miguel Olivo FLA 261 3.13 Howie Kendrick LAA 177 3.14 Corey Patterson BAL 244 3.20 Kenji Johjima SEA 241 3.20 Vladimir Guerrero LAA 326 3.21 Jay Payton BAL 215 3.21 Mike Sweeney KAN 225 3.27 Aaron Boone FLA 228 3.32
LINK

Crazy.

true Russ, but don't limit Mench's regression to just since he became a Brewer.


My point was that Al might be wrong in assuming Mench's numbers should approach his career numbers if given enough AB. It seems like Mench has changed his approach in the last couple of years, so there seems to be more going on.


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Offline  Why not Graffy in LF instead of Mench
#24

Posted: June 27, 2007, 4:41 AM Post
Posts: 654
Location: Milwaukee
I'm surprised Estrada has seen that many pitches/PA. The only reason I can think of is that he missed the first two.Image


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Offline  Why not Graffy in LF instead of Mench
#25

Posted: June 27, 2007, 4:53 AM Post
Posts: 99
So the general point here is that:
1)Mench is bad
2)We still dont have anyone good enough to replace him
3)If we trade for someone to replace him, we eat the remainder of his deal as wed either have to include him in the deal and still pay his salary, or release him

I guess all we can do is hope he can at least improve to average throughout the year against LHP, dont offer him arby, and hope we can find a better platoon partner for next season.
-Don


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Online  Why not Graffy in LF instead of Mench
#26

Posted: June 27, 2007, 8:39 AM Post
Posts: 2851
Additional point for comparison. Mench's EQA for the year .236 Rottino's translated EQA is .252. For those not familiar EQA is supposed to look like batting average and the translation of minor league stats adjusts for the relative difficulty of the majors vs. AAA. So based on this year's minor league stats we would expect Rottino to post an OBP of .320 and a SLG of .404. This involves no fancy age and hope adjustment just a straight forward comparison of the average difficulty of the two leagues. Of course Mench has an advantage in this comparison because he has recieved a lot of platoon advantage relative to Vinny.

Just to add on some more numbers if you translate last years Nashville stats you get similar overall for Rottino as the Major league equivalent. Please note I that given the overall similarity in the numbers I adjusted the line's by essentially the same amount since I don't have the actual formula to do this. Which means it gets a little more dicey to do the next step. I only have his splits for last season where his eyeballed adjusted line was .335/.390/.430


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