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2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster

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Offline  2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#1

Posted: August 09, 2016, 12:03 PM Post
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Not to be confused with our Brewer Minor League Free Agency Eligibles After the 2016 Season Thread, this thread focuses on those players who will be eligible to be selected in December's Rule 5 Draft, and considers who Milwaukee should add to the 40-man roster to protect.

Remember --

Players who signed when 18 or younger are eligible for the draft after five years.
Players who signed when 19 or older are eligible after four years.

According to the rules, it's how old a player was on the June 5th immediately preceeding his signing.

Below are the players not eligible for free agency, but who would be Rule 5 eligible if not placed on the 40-man roster.

If a player is italicized, it's the first year the player is eligible to be added to a 40-man roster.

Players listed alphabetically within level:

Current AAA Players --

RHP Yhonathan Barrios
1B Garrett Cooper
RHP Paolo Espino
RHP Drew Gagnon
RHP David Goforth
IF Gabriel Noriega
UT Nate Orf
LHP Stephen Peterson
LHP Wei-Chung Wang
C Adam Weisenburger
OF Kyle Wren

Current AA Players --

RHP Tristan Archer
IF Javier Betancourt
RHP Parker Berberet
OF Clint Coulter
OF Johnny Davis
RHP Preston Gainey
OF Omar Garcia
RHP Stephen Kohlscheen
LHP Mitch Lambson
2B Chris McFarland
SS Angel Ortega
RHP Jorge Ortega
LHP Nick Ramirez
RHP Junior Rincon
OF Victor Roache
RHP Tayler Scott
RHP Tyler Spurlin
OF Tyrone Taylor
RHP Josh Uhen
RHP Angel Ventura

Current A-Level (or below) players --

OF Carlos Belonis
RHP Rodrigo Benoit
LHP Joan De La Cruz
RHP Miguel Diaz
RHP Victor Diaz
RHP Junior Flores
RHP Milton Gomez
C Dustin Houle
RHP Yosmer Leal
C Natanael Mejia
LHP Boanerges Nova
1B Juan Ortiz
RHP Alberto Paulino
C/UT Fidel Pena
IF Wendell Rijo
OF Elvis Rubio
1B Alan Sharkey
LHP Clint Terry


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#2

Posted: August 09, 2016, 1:21 PM Post
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Well, Josh Hader, Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips are locks, right?

Tyrone Taylor, too, if not a lock, is very close to a lock.

The Brewers love Nate Orf, and as a guy capable of playing all over, he could be valuable as a player who could be utilized in a Rule 5 fashion.

Wei-Chung Wang? Javier Betancourt?

Do the Brewers add one of the older power relief arms (Kohlscheen, Ross)?

This thread always generates interesting speculation and discussion.

Have at it.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#3

Posted: August 09, 2016, 1:35 PM Post
Posts: 26434
Along with the speculated names that Mass mentioned I would suggest Coulter could get added with a strong next month in Biloxi. I think Wang's promotion to AAA is an indication of our desire to see what he can do at that level before making a decision on him


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#4

Posted: August 09, 2016, 1:49 PM Post
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I see seven spots easily freed up on the 40 man. Here is who I think they are and who I would replace them with:

REMOVE
Scahill
Capuano
Middlebooks
Elmore
Wilkins
Nieuwenhuis
Boyer

ADD
Brinson
Hader
Orf
Suter
Wren
Phillips
Pinto (FA)

in addition, I think we could probably remove the following guys off the 40 man if needed without someone claiming them:
Goforth
Cravy
Houser
Rowen
Garza- a little different scenario [smile]


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#5

Posted: August 09, 2016, 1:59 PM Post
Posts: 3552
You can't just remove and add seven players because there are actually 4 players on the 60 day DL, so in reality have 44 players on the 40 man roster right now. Also don't think Taylor is a lock, probably would consider him a longshot, don't think he gets added.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#6

Posted: August 09, 2016, 2:02 PM Post
Posts: 9571
Good news is, there's a long list of guys on current 40 man that either flat out need to go, or are marginal. I put this together just to illustrate it should be fairly easy to protect anyone worth protecting on the list above.

Goodbye, good luck (5): Scahill, Elmore, Wilkins, Rowen, Capuano

AAAA nice to have but not needed (13): Goforth, Cravy, Nolen, Barrios, Middlebrooks, Pina, Flores, Nieuwenhuis, Boyer, Cecchini, Marinez, Blazek, Houser (IR, no need to protect him on 40?)

If you need to dig deeper (7): Torres, Broxton, Liriano, Y Rivera, Reed, Guerra, Garza


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#7

Posted: August 09, 2016, 3:18 PM Post
Posts: 5324
I'd look at this a different way:

Players to HAVE to be added
LHP Josh Hader
LHP Wei-Chung Wang
LHP Brent Suter
OF Brett Phillips
OF Lewis Brinson
C Josmil Pinto
1B Garrett Cooper

Players to add if possible
OF Victor Roache
OF Kyle Wren
RHP Jorge Ortega
UT Nate Orf
OF Johnny Davis


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#8

Posted: August 09, 2016, 5:24 PM Post
Posts: 1829
I always do this before looking at others' lists, so that I can look stupid under my own power.

DROP
Boyer
Elmore
Garza (I can dream, can't I?)
Goforth
Middlebrooks
Nieuwenhuis
Scahill
Wilkins

ADD
Brinson
Coulter
M. Diaz
Hader
Phillips
Suter
Wang
Wren

I'm not adding Betancourt and Taylor because I don't think they've shown enough to warrant a Rule 5 claim. You could say the same about Coulter, but his power could make him appealing. The other additions are useful guys I'm more confident we'd stand a good chance of losing.

I'm on the fence about adding Jorge Ortega and Ventura. They're two guys for whom I've never had a great feel, but they seem to have some promise. We could dump one or two of Rowen, Cravy, or Marinez (approximate order in which I'd consider dumping) to add one or both of them. I'm not sure about the contract status of all our MLB relievers, but I'm assuming for this exercise that we either have them for next year or would have reason to add someone similar to replace any we lost.

I could see an argument for dropping Cecchini, but I'd like to know more about how the FO thinks he's looked this year, and he serves a purpose with Elmore, Middlebrooks, and Wilkins all leaving.

I would also consider subbing out Maldonado for Pinto. I'd need to know more about how that move threatened to affect our pitching staff before I could decide. I'd like to see Susac or Pina start next year, and unless the pitchers would collapse without Maldonado I don't see why he's essential. At least Pinto can hit.

I can't remember whether we can actually drop 60-day guys. It doesn't matter for the math, because they don't open up a spot, but I think we should jettison Capuano (whom I love) ASAP, and I don't think I'd keep Zach Jones over the other options.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#9

Posted: August 09, 2016, 8:08 PM Post
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Including the DL they have 45 players.

Must add: Brinson, Hader, Phillips, Wang, M. Diaz, Wren

That means they need to drop 11: Boyer, Scahill, Elmore, Wilkins, Flores, Nieuwenhuis, Capuano, Goforth, Rivera, Middlebrooks, one of Reed/Cecchini

Reed has a nice OBP but slugging .361 in Colorado Springs isn't going to do it; Wren is outproducing him, is a better CF, and is LH; with Wren and Perez (and adding Brinson and Phillips), Reed is expendable. Goforth/Rivera/Middlebrooks have never been able to produce at the major league level, and Arcia/Villar/Perez have the left side of the infield covered.

On the fence: Ventura/Suter/Lambson/Coulter vs. Rowen/Cravy/Cecchini/Jones - could go either way with any of them; Ventura has not pitched well in AA so perhaps they can hide him but he still has a ~9 K/9 rate. Leaning towards Ventura and Lambson, Suter vs. Rowen depends on how they look in September. Cecchini's .712 OPS in AAA puts him last, Cravy 2nd to last. Might put Coulter over those two.

If they open up any additional slots via trades the order would be: Coulter, Cooper, Pinto, T. Williams, Taylor


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#10

Posted: August 09, 2016, 9:41 PM Post
Posts: 3552
Including DL the roster is 44, Jones has been gone for a couple of months.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#11

Posted: August 11, 2016, 6:39 AM Post
Posts: 525
I'd be rather surprised if the Brewers did not protect Taylor Williams.

Guys who I'd potentially move on from:
Garza: outside of a warm body, I don't see a point.
Boyer: FA anyway
Nieuwenhuis: He was picked up for nothing and he hasnt done anything to increase his value
Flores: I'm a fan more than most but will need to show some signs of life before the end of the season. If the Brewers don't have enough faith to give him playing time anymore, no sense in carrying him.
Elmore: No longterm upside, not enough production
Wilkins: No longterm upside, not enough production
Scahill: No longterm upside
Rowen: Scahill being called up would indicate he is below him in the organizations mind
Goforth: Never enough sample size to judge a reliever by stats but he never has had good ones
Capuano: Career likely done
Barrios: Shoulder injuries are no joke
Middlebrooks: No longterm upside, not enough production
Cecchini: Admirably cut back the strikeouts, but the elite walk rate is gone. An 88 wRC+ from Colorado Springs is not worth protecting
Wouldn't sweat moving on from:
Peralta: Are the Brewers really going to tender him a contract to sit at AAA? Next month is important for him
Nolin: Brewers got him for free with a "good" elbow. Might be able to sneak him through waivers.
Cravy: He is still cheap, but I have more faith in Wang and Suter currently.
Rivera: has never shown any offense, but he still gives the Brewers a good defensive option if necessary
Adds (in order of priority):
(1) Brinson
(2) Hader
(3) Phillips
(4) T. Williams: Are the Brewers really going to risk losing a guy whose stuff they've compared to Craig Kimbral and he had good control?
(5) M. Diaz: It'd be a tough jump for someone to take him but there are enough teams in "non-compete" mode, I wouldnt risk his upside
(6) Wang: I didnt even have him in my top 50 coming into this year, but he has finally started striking people out and the home runs haven't jumped like I thought they would
(7) Orf: Good strikezone judgement, defensive flexibility, and Brewers seem to like him
(8) Suter: He has done enough to be rewarded with a September call-up
(9) Wren or Rangers PTBNL??: Wren's .419 BABIP will regress, but I can't argue with the production

Risks:
Taylor: Sub .300 OBP and sub .100 ISO in AA. Cannot see a team carrying him.
Coulter: Still work in progress defense and hasnt shown an offensive pulse in a long time.
Ventura: Keeps stiking out over a batter per inning at every level. I dont think there is enough upside for someone to take him, but I'd consider protecting him if the numbers work out.
Betancourt/Rijo: Both are young enough to maybe attract some interest, but neither is capable of hitting advanced pitching yet.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#12

Posted: August 11, 2016, 8:15 AM Post
Posts: 12874
If they took Perez off the 40 man last October, it's hard to see justifying keeping Flores who's had a much worse season than Perez did last year.

Cecchini's a corner IF who's hit 4 HR in over 400 AB's and has posted a .707 OPS? He's not worthy either.

Neither are Wilkins, Elmore, Middlebrooks, Nieuwenhuis, and Gofourth.

At least 8-10 spots will be available when all is said and done.

Will be interesting to see if any guys who still have options like Reed and Rivera but who haven't set the world of fire will maintain their spots as well. There's a risk they'd be claimed by somebody but it wouldn't be earth shattering to lose either with the talent recently acquired.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#13

Posted: August 11, 2016, 10:02 AM Post
Posts: 9571
Agree with the obvious guys, but I really hope they find a way to protect guys like Taylor, Roache, Coulter, and Rivera. I don't want to give up yet on Roache's power, and the other 3 are young enough to develop into MLB players. I would protect them before low ceiling guys like Wren or Orf. I think a real house-cleaning is in order for the 40 man, lots of mediocre/bad relief pitchers and AAAA type position players that had their chance.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#14

Posted: August 11, 2016, 10:38 AM Post
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I doubt Taylor Williams has too much to worry about with only 25 IP at A+ and coming off TJ surgery. He wasn't in the prospect limelight before his injury, I doubt too many people are going to take a chance on him doing anything at the MLB level.
* I realize we here thought/think highly of him and he was the darling of some media blurbs during the 2015 ST, but I doubt that is enough to get another team to give him a MLB spot with so little MiLB experience and fresh off an injury.

Tyrone Taylor is probably a good target for some team.
- Former High draft pick.
- Can play as a 5th OFer right now defensively.
- Still has age on his side (23 next year).
- Jump from AA to MLB isn't too big (less than A+ at least).

I'm not saying that is enough for us to protect him, but he might be a strong target for a team to try a reclamation project.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#15

Posted: August 11, 2016, 11:39 AM Post
Posts: 822
I think Nieuwenhuis sticks around, primarily because I think Brinson starts next year in AAA. Clearing off all of these spots can sound good on paper, but you still need to field an MLB team. There might be some low-hanging fruit to cut from the 40 man, but there can only be 15 that you expect to be in the minor leagues.

Ventura will be an interesting case. It's too bad he can't go to the AFL, because he seems like the classic get more info in the AFL guy. After the three locks, I think Diaz (seems like the type of low-level upside guy who would get picked) and Wang, especially if he closes well at AAA, are the next two in line. After that it will provide an interesting window into how the organization views a lot of these guys.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#16

Posted: August 11, 2016, 12:04 PM Post
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I wouldn't be surprised if Nieuwenhuis is brought back in ST as a NRI, but they'll have OF covered - Braun, Santana, Perez, Wren, Broxton are your likely OF next year with Brinson and Phillips also on 40-man. I don't think KN is terrible like some would have you believe, but his competition is Wren, Broxton, and Reed and I'd rather have those three than KN.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#17

Posted: August 11, 2016, 2:07 PM Post
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Ironically, KN is a great candidate for a 4th/5th OFer on a playoff team. Good defense at multiple OF positions and 700+ OPS off the bench.

But he is maxed out and we aren't looking for 4th/5th OFers. So he doesn't make sense here right now.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#18

Posted: August 11, 2016, 2:24 PM Post
Posts: 4209
I'd drop:
Barrios
Boyer
Capuano
Cecchini
Cravy
Elmore
Flores
Hauser
Liriano
Pina
Scahill
Wilkins
Nieuwenhuis

Add
Brinson
Hader
Coulter
Taylor
Phillips
Wang
Williams
M Diaz


I'd like to see them give Wren a shot this season and if he does ok then add him and let him battle for CF next season with Broxton and Brinson in what should be another lost season.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#19

Posted: August 11, 2016, 2:41 PM Post
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If you're wondering about the 25-year-old DSL'er with a 0.00 ERA (against kids six years his junior) in his first year of stats of any kind --

RHP Alberto Paulino

He signed with the Diamondbacks in 2012, but never played for some unknown reason. Then he was released and sat out until the Brewers inked him. That’s how he’s rule 5 eligible.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster
#20

Posted: August 11, 2016, 5:43 PM Post
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CheeseheadInQC said:
I think Nieuwenhuis sticks around, primarily because I think Brinson starts next year in AAA. Clearing off all of these spots can sound good on paper, but you still need to field an MLB team. There might be some low-hanging fruit to cut from the 40 man, but there can only be 15 that you expect to be in the minor leagues.



The Brewers have so many OF's that losing Nieuwenhuis wouldn't hurt as much as you think it will. Next year the Brewers will have Phillips, Brinson, Liriano, Roache and Taylor all vying for a spot in AAA. So yeah Nieuwenhuis would be replaced by Reed or Wren or both.

Santana, Braun, Broxton, Reed, and Wren as the OF's next year is pretty good depth with Liriano, Roache, Taylor, and Phillips all in AAA. At some point Brinson will be with the Brewers next year so Nieuwenhuis will more than likely be gone. Other players like Wren or Reed can take over for Nieuwenhuis.


40 man subtractions:
Flores
Nieuwenhuis
Capuano
Cravy
Goforth
Nolin
Cecchini
Elmore
Scahill
Rowen
Wilkins
Boyer
Middlebrooks

40 man down to 31 or 30 if the Brewers put Houser on the 60 day DL they could even remove him from the 40 man.

40 man additions:
Brinson
Wren
Taylor
Hader
Wang
Phillips
M.Diaz
Suter
Coulter
J. Ortega (if Houser is on 60-day DL or is removed)


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