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BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition

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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#41

Posted: June 12, 2017, 9:08 AM Post
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Posts: 430
FVBrewerFan said:
Greenleaf1 said:
Lots of fun so far this year to watch the minor league teams. They've hit their bad streaks (sucks to see Erceg struggling) but for every player underperforming right now it seems like there are 2 others who are doing great.

That AAA outfield in particular has been a real source of joy watching the box scores every day.


Gotta say, I don't see it that way. Another pretty disappointing year. Burnes and Supak are nice "surprises" but way too many top prospects under-performing. Ray, Diaz, Erceg, Clark not breaking out. Diplan hasn't been special repeating in A+. Nottingham and Coulter not bouncing back in a big way. Woodruff has been rocked a couple times, Hader hasn't been dominant by any measure.

Some of this has to do with pitching environment in CS, but overall not the results I was hoping for, especially for the top 10ish guys. But a few of those guys are coming on lately, long way to go so there's time for these guys to turn it on.


I posted that over a month ago, there have obviously been sizeable shifts to some prospects' performances since then (most notably Diaz), but prospects are more about growth for me than full season performance. Prospects are still learning consistency and one bad run in an otherwise good season can make your numbers look a lot worse than they were.

Ray has actually had a nice season despite some early season (most likely injury-related) struggles, Erceg has started to look better lately and there were indications that he was feeling a little worn out after a busy spring, and after all it is his first full season in pro ball. These guys aren't in the majors yet, some patience is required and they aren't going to be lights out or 3-hit days every day, even with the top guys.

Woodruff hasn't been great lately but cherry picking a few bad starts to act like he's having a disappointing year seems pretty extreme.

Nottingham/Coulter both had rough starts but have quietly put up some good numbers since.

So even though some things have changed since I first made that statement, I'll stand by it 100%. Last year it seemed like everybody had just crappy years with not much redeeming about any of it. We clung to Woodruff/Diaz, and even tried to act like Hader's AA dominance wasn't masking huge control issues that were then exploited at AAA. This year, we have potentially an even bigger pitcher success story with Corbin Burnes, Supak is really intriguing, Gatewood has broken out in a big way and seems to be sustaining it quite well after slumping a little bit in May. That whole AAA outfield has been killing it to the point where 2 have already been called up and Cordell looks like he should be right behind them given the chance. Bullpen success stories like Tristan Archer and Wei Chung Wang are fun to watch, not to mention Garrett Cooper's absolute dominance at AAA after quietly putting up good stats for years. There will always be more failures than successes in the minors, but there are a lot of prospects looking good right now throughout our system.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#42

Posted: June 12, 2017, 10:26 AM Post
Posts: 78
For me,as the season has continued I have been more dissapointed than anything else.. That is mainly because I look for the top tier prospects to produce or get better throughout the year. Especially when in A+ ball or lower. Diaz, Diplan, Erceg, Clark fall into that category.

I have been impressed with some lower ranked prospects that will get a big bump in their ratings in the future. Those are: Feliciano, Gatewood, Harrison, Supak, and Burnes.

All in all I have said this team is loaded with depth, but lacks that elite player (s), and this year is showing that to be true again. Outside the AAA team, there are not alot of guys hitting .300 or having an OPS above .800


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#43

Posted: June 12, 2017, 10:57 AM Post
Posts: 223
Location: Milwaukee
I'm not disappointed at all. Brinson, Phillips, Cordell are all performing to the level they should be as that's what they're capable of. Ray was coming off an injury and I'm sure to a certain extent that contributed to a slow start but since May 1 he's been plenty solid (same goes for Nottingham). Diaz started off good and has hit a huge slow streak. Clark isn't hitting for average but his ability to work the count and get on base has been outstanding (he's also 2.5yrs young for level). Erceg, like Clark, should have started at A and if they were performing very well after 6wks should have been up in A+. Erceg was excellent his first 4 games in A last year and the rest of his games left more to be desired. He's no doubt talented but that doesn't mean he needed to start in A+ this year. All these players are still developing and have things to work on. They're all talented enough to move levels throughout the year. Dubon isn't driving the ball like he did last year in AA but he's doing everything else pretty well. He's still physically maturing and developing. We aren't even halfway through the season. If some of these guys (Diaz, Eceg, Clark) have much better 2nd halves then it shows they're improving and making adjustments and can still move a level next year.

Diplan is struggling in A+ but he's also 20yrs old. I'm not surprised he's inconsistent. Peralta is a year older so where would Diplan be in 1yr from now? Hader and Woodruff shouldn't be expected to dominate in CS. Ortiz has had a few bad starts otherwise has been out of this world. Peralta is performing just like he did last year in A. Burnes should have been in the Top 15 to begin with as he's very talented and could have been a late 1st or 2nd rd pick. Ponce has improved greatly over last year and is pounding the zone. Kodi has greatly improved his BB rate and has been great as a reliever while just turning 21 I believe. Gatewood has made drastic mechanical improvements and is putting himself back on the map. Harrison has been solid this year and staying pretty healthy. Supak was excellent in A and having growing pains so far in A+ so it'll be interesting to see how he improves. Feliciano has exceeded all expectations in A.

Overall, the Brewers are in a good position and definitely a better position than they were this point last year.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#44

Posted: June 12, 2017, 1:04 PM Post
Posts: 5745
Humans Need Water said:
Overall, the Brewers are in a good position and definitely a better position than they were this point last year.


Agreed, but being better than last year was not my standard. They were billed as a top 5 system, some sources had them top 2 or 3. I mean, who cares what MY expectations are, I get that. Just saying, Top 10 has been really mediocre.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#45

Posted: June 12, 2017, 1:26 PM Post
Posts: 251
leitermab07 said:
For me,as the season has continued I have been more dissapointed than anything else.. That is mainly because I look for the top tier prospects to produce or get better throughout the year. Especially when in A+ ball or lower. Diaz, Diplan, Erceg, Clark fall into that category.

I have been impressed with some lower ranked prospects that will get a big bump in their ratings in the future. Those are: Feliciano, Gatewood, Harrison, Supak, and Burnes.

All in all I have said this team is loaded with depth, but lacks that elite player (s), and this year is showing that to be true again. Outside the AAA team, there are not alot of guys hitting .300 or having an OPS above .800


I think this is the big issue when it comes to these debates about the system as a whole. There are no elite level prospects that are going to dominate with huge numbers all the way through the system. We have some guys that will be regulars, maybe even all stars, but those are the kinds of guys that have up and down development cycles. We don't have that guy that is going to OPS 850+ at every singe level. If that is what you are expecting, then you are going to be disappointed. If your expectations are more aligned with the actual talent level, then you are probably in the more optimistic camp.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#46

Posted: June 12, 2017, 2:08 PM Post
Posts: 5745
82brewcrew82 said:
leitermab07 said:
For me,as the season has continued I have been more dissapointed than anything else.. That is mainly because I look for the top tier prospects to produce or get better throughout the year. Especially when in A+ ball or lower. Diaz, Diplan, Erceg, Clark fall into that category.

I have been impressed with some lower ranked prospects that will get a big bump in their ratings in the future. Those are: Feliciano, Gatewood, Harrison, Supak, and Burnes.

All in all I have said this team is loaded with depth, but lacks that elite player (s), and this year is showing that to be true again. Outside the AAA team, there are not alot of guys hitting .300 or having an OPS above .800


I think this is the big issue when it comes to these debates about the system as a whole. There are no elite level prospects that are going to dominate with huge numbers all the way through the system. We have some guys that will be regulars, maybe even all stars, but those are the kinds of guys that have up and down development cycles. We don't have that guy that is going to OPS 850+ at every singe level. If that is what you are expecting, then you are going to be disappointed. If your expectations are more aligned with the actual talent level, then you are probably in the more optimistic camp.


But I don't think those expectations are unfair. Ray was a 1st round pick, regarded by many as the closest bat to MLB. Nottingham and Dubon put up big numbers before they came over to the Brewers system. Diaz put up those numbers last year. Clark, another first round pick isn't performing at that level. Erceg looked like he may be heading to that territory. Same thing for the pitchers. All the guys you were hoping could make that next big step really haven't.

But you're right, it looks like a lot of depth has been added- maybe even some high up-side depth in some cases. But what we don't seem to have are 3-4 real studs to get excited about.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#47

Posted: June 12, 2017, 2:17 PM Post
Posts: 251
Not many teams are going to have 3-4 studs in their system at one time. With more marginal talent, you are going to have to deal with a much less linear development than you will with a blue chip prospect. In other words, struggles and rough stretches will be more common. You really have to take the long view and see where things stand at the end of the year.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#48

Posted: June 12, 2017, 2:20 PM Post
Posts: 78
82brewcrew82 said:
leitermab07 said:
For me,as the season has continued I have been more dissapointed than anything else.. That is mainly because I look for the top tier prospects to produce or get better throughout the year. Especially when in A+ ball or lower. Diaz, Diplan, Erceg, Clark fall into that category.

I have been impressed with some lower ranked prospects that will get a big bump in their ratings in the future. Those are: Feliciano, Gatewood, Harrison, Supak, and Burnes.

All in all I have said this team is loaded with depth, but lacks that elite player (s), and this year is showing that to be true again. Outside the AAA team, there are not alot of guys hitting .300 or having an OPS above .800


I think this is the big issue when it comes to these debates about the system as a whole. There are no elite level prospects that are going to dominate with huge numbers all the way through the system. We have some guys that will be regulars, maybe even all stars, but those are the kinds of guys that have up and down development cycles. We don't have that guy that is going to OPS 850+ at every singe level. If that is what you are expecting, then you are going to be disappointed. If your expectations are more aligned with the actual talent level, then you are probably in the more optimistic camp.



Are you saying there are none, or are you saying we have none in our system? If you are saying the latter I agree. To say there are no elite level prospects who put up around .300 ba and around .850 Ops throughout all minor league systems is just wrong. Robles, Moncada, Rosario, Jimenez, Devers, Mejia, Acuna just to name a few that are top 100 prospects right now that have put up those numbers on all levels.. there are plenty of those examples of guys in the MLB too(look at Keiths Law of Top players under 26 in the MLB, they all raked throughout all of MLB). That is what makes them thought of being the elites of the minor league prospects and elites of MILB)... I agree its not all stats, but stats do tell you some info and for guys like Erceg and Diaz I expected at least their OPS to be much better.. I was hoping one or a couple guys could elevate themselves into the belief of scouts that they are the other elite prospects, but that hasn't happened. Hence why I am a little unimpressed with the minors so far, but there is another half of the season left. Def will be looking for improvements from the Carolina squad.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#49

Posted: June 12, 2017, 2:23 PM Post
Posts: 5745
82brewcrew82 said:
Not many teams are going to have 3-4 studs in their system at one time. With more marginal talent, you are going to have to deal with a much less linear development than you will with a blue chip prospect. In other words, struggles and rough stretches will be more common. You really have to take the long view and see where things stand at the end of the year.


No, but the top systems do and the Brewers were supposed to be one of them. Even back the system wasn't great they had Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Yo, Braun at the same time.

But yea, nothing we can do about that but wait and hope some of these guys do develop into elite players.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#50

Posted: June 12, 2017, 2:27 PM Post
Posts: 78
82brewcrew82 said:
Not many teams are going to have 3-4 studs in their system at one time. With more marginal talent, you are going to have to deal with a much less linear development than you will with a blue chip prospect. In other words, struggles and rough stretches will be more common. You really have to take the long view and see where things stand at the end of the year.


The best minor league systems do though.. The Dodgers the last 2 years have produced some ridiculous elite level talent that have been brought to the majors (Seager, Bellinger, Urias) The Nationals have had a couple (Turner, Devers, AND the elite pitchers they traded away). The Cubs are self Explanatory. The Astros as well. The Braves have a couple elite pitchers it looks like as well as just having Dansby called up and waiting on Albies. I was hoping at least one player could make that jump this year and None have. Gatewood has maybe made the jump to get close to being in the top 100, but no player has jumped into the elite discussion. That is why I have been disappointed so far.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#51

Posted: June 12, 2017, 4:13 PM Post
Posts: 223
Location: Milwaukee
FVBrewerFan said:
Humans Need Water said:
Overall, the Brewers are in a good position and definitely a better position than they were this point last year.


Agreed, but being better than last year was not my standard. They were billed as a top 5 system, some sources had them top 2 or 3. I mean, who cares what MY expectations are, I get that. Just saying, Top 10 has been really mediocre.

I was speaking in general giving my own opinion on the system (Top 30 mainly). I understand what you're getting at but the season isn't over. Not every elite player puts up other wordly numbers every level of the minors nor do it every single month throughout the season. Moncada's OPS is 100pts lower than it's "supposed" to be. In fact, he's had a 747 OPS since May 1. I don't think our Top 10 has been mediocre though when factoring everything in.

Brinson - great AAA, MLB debut
Ray - this is his first full season in pro ball and started season late due to injury. since May 1 is 265/357/783 (117 wRC+). he'll bump that up moving forward too. he's at a 28% line drive rate. that's excellent and means he's squaring balls up
Hader - CS is his issue. that's half the reason he's in the Brewers pen (other half being they desperately need him, plus he's lefty). we'll all see him produce the results he's had in past years
Ortiz - few bad starts otherwise absolutely killing it
Diaz - heading into June wasn't doing too bad actually 245/329/776 (112 wRC+) but past 10 games he's been terrible. he's fully capable of killing it in the 2nd half like last year
Clark - hasn't hit for average or power but his ability to work the count and get on base is insane. 2.5yrs young for level. will be interesting to see how he adjusts in the 2nd half hitting wise. this is also his first full season as last year only played like 55 games due to injuries
Erceg - struggling everywhere but his talent is still clear as day. it'll click eventually
Woodruff - has been great at times and been hit at times. but he's pounding the zone and attacking. CS is an issue with him too
Dubon - since May 1 is 303/366/776 (127 wRC+) and been killing it on the bases
Phillips - great AAA, MLB debut

BB and K rates on season
Ray 11% BB, 32% K
Diaz 13% BB, 24% K
Clark 17% BB, 27% K
Erceg 4% BB, 19% K

Ray is striking out way too much for his skill set but that will come down. He's also hitting line drives almost 30% of his ABs. That's nuts. Diaz's numbers are good for both. Clark's BB rate is nunzeo and he'll bring his K rate down as he develops because he's very young for level. Erceg's BB rate sucks but his K rate is good.

The reason I listed the above is because it proves that we can't ultimately judge them in full one way or the other because, collectively, they're hitting the ball and walking. Given their overall numbers are what they are the questions I have would be - what are their overall contact rates, what about contact rates for pitches swung at inside and outside the zone, exit velocity, soft/medium/hard contact rates. We don't have answers to these questions. We have box scores, which we all know don't tell the entire story. Unless you're going through Game Cast every night seeing what they actually do every AB we won't have these answers and this info matters and can tell a story for how well they're actually swinging the bat.

I get that these guys are all 1st and 2nd rd picks and there are certain expectations as a result of that but this is the first full season of pro ball for Ray and Erceg. Clark is young and Diaz hasn't been as bad as his numbers suggest. They're going to have growing pains even if they're advanced college bats. How they adjust and grow throughout the season will be more telling than what they've done through 2 full months at this point. Hader and Woodruff, for me, I pay no attention to what they do in CS because they just need to get their innings in.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#52

Posted: June 12, 2017, 9:58 PM Post
Posts: 251
leitermab07 said:
82brewcrew82 said:
Not many teams are going to have 3-4 studs in their system at one time. With more marginal talent, you are going to have to deal with a much less linear development than you will with a blue chip prospect. In other words, struggles and rough stretches will be more common. You really have to take the long view and see where things stand at the end of the year.


The best minor league systems do though.. The Dodgers the last 2 years have produced some ridiculous elite level talent that have been brought to the majors (Seager, Bellinger, Urias) The Nationals have had a couple (Turner, Devers, AND the elite pitchers they traded away). The Cubs are self Explanatory. The Astros as well. The Braves have a couple elite pitchers it looks like as well as just having Dansby called up and waiting on Albies. I was hoping at least one player could make that jump this year and None have. Gatewood has maybe made the jump to get close to being in the top 100, but no player has jumped into the elite discussion. That is why I have been disappointed so far.


That's my point. What we are missing is that "elite" prospect. We don't have one and there isn't a single player in the system that I would have classified as "elite" when drafted. Sure, a few teams have multiple studs in their system, but the vast majority do not. If your expecting non-elite prospects to reach elite levels, you are bound to be disappointed.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#53

Posted: June 12, 2017, 9:59 PM Post
Posts: 251
Also, I think Devers is a Red Sox prospect and I don't think the elite pitching the Nationals traded away is really considered all that elite any more.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#54

Posted: June 12, 2017, 10:03 PM Post
Posts: 251
FVBrewerFan said:
82brewcrew82 said:
Not many teams are going to have 3-4 studs in their system at one time. With more marginal talent, you are going to have to deal with a much less linear development than you will with a blue chip prospect. In other words, struggles and rough stretches will be more common. You really have to take the long view and see where things stand at the end of the year.


No, but the top systems do and the Brewers were supposed to be one of them. Even back the system wasn't great they had Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Yo, Braun at the same time.

But yea, nothing we can do about that but wait and hope some of these guys do develop into elite players.



When were the Brewers supposed to be one of them. I think the knock on this system for the last two or three years has been the lack of elite level talent. The system gets high grades because of it's depth. Not it's high end talent. I'm pretty sure that when Fielder, Hart, Cruz, Hardy, and Weeks were coming through, the system was very highly regarded for high end talent. There were other players in that group that never did pan out.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#55

Posted: June 12, 2017, 10:06 PM Post
Posts: 251
leitermab07 said:
82brewcrew82 said:
leitermab07 said:
For me,as the season has continued I have been more dissapointed than anything else.. That is mainly because I look for the top tier prospects to produce or get better throughout the year. Especially when in A+ ball or lower. Diaz, Diplan, Erceg, Clark fall into that category.

I have been impressed with some lower ranked prospects that will get a big bump in their ratings in the future. Those are: Feliciano, Gatewood, Harrison, Supak, and Burnes.

All in all I have said this team is loaded with depth, but lacks that elite player (s), and this year is showing that to be true again. Outside the AAA team, there are not alot of guys hitting .300 or having an OPS above .800


I think this is the big issue when it comes to these debates about the system as a whole. There are no elite level prospects that are going to dominate with huge numbers all the way through the system. We have some guys that will be regulars, maybe even all stars, but those are the kinds of guys that have up and down development cycles. We don't have that guy that is going to OPS 850+ at every singe level. If that is what you are expecting, then you are going to be disappointed. If your expectations are more aligned with the actual talent level, then you are probably in the more optimistic camp.



Are you saying there are none, or are you saying we have none in our system? If you are saying the latter I agree. To say there are no elite level prospects who put up around .300 ba and around .850 Ops throughout all minor league systems is just wrong. Robles, Moncada, Rosario, Jimenez, Devers, Mejia, Acuna just to name a few that are top 100 prospects right now that have put up those numbers on all levels.. there are plenty of those examples of guys in the MLB too(look at Keiths Law of Top players under 26 in the MLB, they all raked throughout all of MLB). That is what makes them thought of being the elites of the minor league prospects and elites of MILB)... I agree its not all stats, but stats do tell you some info and for guys like Erceg and Diaz I expected at least their OPS to be much better.. I was hoping one or a couple guys could elevate themselves into the belief of scouts that they are the other elite prospects, but that hasn't happened. Hence why I am a little unimpressed with the minors so far, but there is another half of the season left. Def will be looking for improvements from the Carolina squad.


Of course elite level talent exists in the minors and more was added today. I think my post pretty clearly states that this talent does not exist in the Brewers system right now.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#56

Posted: June 13, 2017, 9:37 AM Post
Posts: 1740
Carolina has been my biggest disappointment so far. That was supposed to be a monster lineup with some very advanced bats and we just aren't seeing it.

I would tend to agree with other posters here. We have added depth but we haven't added the next Braun or Fielder.

Brinson could be that guy, it's just so tough to gauge due to CS, but the tools are certainly there. I'm not writing off Ray, Clark, or Diaz of course but you need to see guys that highly rated not struggle in A+ ball.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#57

Posted: June 14, 2017, 7:34 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 4649
Location: Phoenix, AZ
The expectations of some on this board for low minor players is rather comical.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#58

Posted: June 14, 2017, 7:44 AM Post
Posts: 251
nate82 said:
The expectations of some on this board for low minor players is rather comical.


It really is.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#59

Posted: June 14, 2017, 11:23 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 4053
If we look back at the Braun/Fielder/Hardy/Weeks/Hart era, those guys were can't miss prospects that produced at a high level at each MiLB level (esp Braun/Fielder).

I think the expectations (or maybe hope is a better word) being expressed is that there really isn't anyone that is showing himself to be a standout, can't miss prospect. Lots of good players that will be quality MLBers some day. But only a few people that you can say he is the X (CF, SS, 2B, etc..) of the future.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2017 Pre-Season Edition
#60

Posted: June 14, 2017, 12:17 PM Post
Posts: 251
CheezWizHed said:
If we look back at the Braun/Fielder/Hardy/Weeks/Hart era, those guys were can't miss prospects that produced at a high level at each MiLB level (esp Braun/Fielder).

I think the expectations (or maybe hope is a better word) being expressed is that there really isn't anyone that is showing himself to be a standout, can't miss prospect. Lots of good players that will be quality MLBers some day. But only a few people that you can say he is the X (CF, SS, 2B, etc..) of the future.



And I don't think anyone is arguing that point. I'll be the first to tell you we don't have can't miss talent in the system. I don't recall any payer drafted in recent memory to be considered a can't miss prospect either. We have drafted some guys that were projected to be very good, but I don't recall any of them being labeled as a sure fire perennial all star. So the question then becomes, if we don't have that talent level, whey are we disappointed we don't see that level of production?


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