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Busted Prospects

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Offline  Busted Prospects
#1

Posted: July 13, 2017, 7:10 AM Post
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Baseball Prospectus published an article that analyzes the Top 50 Busted Prospects of the draft era.

In most cases it is a prospect that had initial success and was built up with a lot of hype, but failed to come close to those star expectations. Brewers representatives on the list include Nick Neugebauer, Matt LaPorta, and Mat Gamel. Do you agree that those are the biggest busts the Brewers have had based on success and expectations as a prospect? Who are your top 5 Brewers busted prospects?

The disclaimers listed in the article go as follows...

- The rankings of these players is mostly loose and entirely subjective, mostly because...

- The concept of what is a “bust” is also highly subjective. Each author set their own bar, based on their own expectations, and then tried to explain them. High draft choice? Top-rated prospect? Costly trade acquisition? Anything can draw a line for a player, of which they can then fall short.

- Finally, remember that the idea of a bust is not only subjective, but relative. The players mentioned here, those who weren’t quite enough, were still at some point among the most talented athletes known. Most of them tried hard and worked through pain and listened to terrible music on buses. We do this not to make light of these men, nor really to praise them, but to remember them, remember the happiness we decided they owed us.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#2

Posted: July 13, 2017, 9:35 AM Post
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I'd add Mark Rogers


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#3

Posted: July 13, 2017, 9:42 AM Post
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Was Eric Arnett ever considered a prospect?


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#4

Posted: July 13, 2017, 10:06 AM Post
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I think Eric Arnett seems painful because he was the pick right after Mike Trout, who the Brewers reportedly were set to select.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#5

Posted: July 13, 2017, 10:12 AM Post
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Rogers would be my pick if only because when he finally came up he showed he could hang in the big leagues but just couldn't stay healthy


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#6

Posted: July 13, 2017, 10:31 AM Post
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One that stands out for me is J.M. Gold. I remember there being a lot of hype and lofty expectations when he was drafted 13th overall in '98.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#7

Posted: July 13, 2017, 10:48 AM Post
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I don't buy the busts by injury thinking.

Gamel smashed his leg on a railing -- the subsequent recovery efforts didn't work out. And Neugy on the list?

If they had eliminated the injury aspect and went strictly by performance vs. expectations, the list would be a much more impressive and interesting read.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#8

Posted: July 13, 2017, 11:35 AM Post
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Mass Haas said:
I don't buy the busts by injury thinking.

Gamel smashed his leg on a railing -- the subsequent recovery efforts didn't work out. And Neugy on the list?

If they had eliminated the injury aspect and went strictly by performance vs. expectations, the list would be a much more impressive and interesting read.


I agree. Injury shouldn't count as a "bust".

How high did Ben Hendrickson get on the ratings before it was figured out he was a AAAA pitcher?


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#9

Posted: July 13, 2017, 11:55 AM Post
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I remember hearing from baseball folks that they were surprised with Neugy's short return. One minor league inning, then released. Given the talent, they speculated there was something else going on, such as a lack of work ethic or desire to move on. For any other talented arm like that, he would have been allowed to return slowly and given more time.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#10

Posted: July 13, 2017, 12:08 PM Post
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I would not call Matt LaPorta a bust. He was the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia deal and that got the Brewers the 2008 Wild Card spot.

No, LaPorta's a success just on that alone.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#11

Posted: July 13, 2017, 12:27 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
I think Eric Arnett seems painful because he was the pick right after Mike Trout, who the Brewers reportedly were set to select.

You hit a home run on that call. Yes, Arnett was a prospect and despite pitching bad, always got promoted before guys that deserved it. Hopefully he invested his bonus money.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#12

Posted: July 13, 2017, 12:50 PM Post
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DHonks said:
I remember hearing from baseball folks that they were surprised with Neugy's short return. One minor league inning, then released. Given the talent, they speculated there was something else going on, such as a lack of work ethic or desire to move on. For any other talented arm like that, he would have been allowed to return slowly and given more time.


Just looked at his BRef page, done at 23. Either he didn't want to play anymore or no one wanted to deal with him.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#13

Posted: July 13, 2017, 1:55 PM Post
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Can we call Kodi Medeiros a bust yet?


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#14

Posted: July 13, 2017, 3:38 PM Post
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DocLuna7 said:
Can we call Kodi Medeiros a bust yet?


No. You can be upset that he isn't lighting the world on fire, but let him play his career out before he gets labeled a bust.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#15

Posted: July 13, 2017, 4:35 PM Post
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Roderick said:
Mass Haas said:
I don't buy the busts by injury thinking.

Gamel smashed his leg on a railing -- the subsequent recovery efforts didn't work out. And Neugy on the list?

If they had eliminated the injury aspect and went strictly by performance vs. expectations, the list would be a much more impressive and interesting read.


How high did Ben Hendrickson get on the ratings before it was figured out he was a AAAA pitcher?


Oh boy...you better hope his dad doesn't see that post.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#16

Posted: July 13, 2017, 4:54 PM Post
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Antone Williamson (#4 overall pick in 94) might be number 1 bust for Brewers. Dave Krynzel was another. Then there was Mike Jones a year later. Gold was for sure. Lots more of them.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#17

Posted: July 13, 2017, 5:26 PM Post
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Bad list. How is Todd Van Poppel not on there but Ben McDonald is? He would be right at the top of my list.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#18

Posted: July 13, 2017, 5:37 PM Post
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For his performances as a player, how about the now GM Billy Beane ???


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#19

Posted: July 13, 2017, 6:39 PM Post
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This seems to be a list of media driven players (Danny Ainge?) that ended up busting and not necessarily prospect busts.


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Offline  Re: Busted Prospects
#20

Posted: July 13, 2017, 8:58 PM Post
Posts: 3914
Who was the guy drafted #1 overall twice and not ever make it to the majors? Was he on the list?


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