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TOP PROSPECTS

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Offline  TOP PROSPECTS
#1

Posted: July 25, 2017, 7:42 AM Post
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Posts: 590
I sure hope Mr. Stearns doesn't trade any of these future superstars:

2017 Stats at High A

OF Corey Ray .233 AVG .672 OPS 305 ab 4 HR 18 SB 110K DRAFTED #5 overall 2016
OF Trent Clark .237 AVG .771 OPS 316 ab 8 HR 25 SB 103K DRAFTED #15 overall 2015
3B Lucas Erceg .236 AVG .653 OPS 373 ab 9 HR 2 SB 69K DRAFTED 2nd round 2016
2B Isan Diaz .231 AVG .719 OPS 333 ab 11 HR 8 SB 103 K HEADLINER OF JEAN SEGURA TRADE

All 4 players are hitting in the .230s this season past the halfway point of the season.

3 of the 4 players have an alarming strikeout rate. (Ray, Clark, Diaz)

Ray, Clark, Erceg were all high round draftees and are NOT young for the minor league level they are playing at.

Trading a single one of these "Top Prospects" could ruin the Milwaukee Brewers rebuilding process.

Any of these guys could be a solid bench player on the 2022 Brewers World Series team.

No need to upset any apple carts Mr. Stearns.


Last edited by A Swing and A Drive on July 25, 2017, 3:54 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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#2

Posted: July 25, 2017, 7:47 AM Post
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Can't we post things without being so dramatic towards the style or approach of our GM?

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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#3

Posted: July 25, 2017, 7:55 AM Post
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Posts: 590
The point is that the stats of these players are NOT bell-weathers to future MLB success.

Our GM would be smart to include them in a trade to improve the current ball club while their perceived "prospect" value is still high, as all 4 players are considered Top 10 Brewers prospects.

2017 Baseball America Top 10 Brewers prospects

1. Lewis Brinson, of
2. Josh Hader, lhp
3. Luis Ortiz, rhp
4. Corey Ray, of
5. Isan Diaz, ss/2b
6. Trent Clark, o
f
7. Brandon Woodruff, rhp
8. Phil Bickford, rhp
9. Lucas Erceg, 3b
10. Marcos Diplan, rhp


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#4

Posted: July 25, 2017, 7:58 AM Post
Posts: 10183
Brew4U said:
Can't we post things without being so dramatic towards the style or approach of our GM?


Apparently not.

Prospect paths are not always 'rake your way all the way up to the majors', but for some, if it's not awesome results in the last few months, they're future bench players. Heck, Lewis Brinson had a .277 OBP for the season in AA when he came over from Texas last year.

Although with the struggles being almost across the board at High A, I can't help but wonder if they are going to take a very close look at the Carolina coaching staff after the season.


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#5

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:04 AM Post
Posts: 615
Location: New Berlin, WI
A Swing and A Drive said:
I sure hope Mr. Stearns doesn't trade any of these future superstars:

2017 Stats at High A

OF Corey Ray .233 AVG .672 OPS 305 ab 4 HR 18 SB 110K DRAFTED #5 overall 2016
OF Trent Clark .237 AVG .771 OPS 316 ab 8 HR 25 SB 103K DRAFTED #12 overall 2015
3B Lucas Erceg .236 AVG .653 OPS 373 ab 9 HR 2 SB 69K DRAFTED 2nd round 2016
2B Isan Diaz .231 AVG .719 OPS 333 ab 11 HR 8 SB 103 K HEADLINER OF JEAN SEGURA TRADE

All 4 players are hitting in the .230s this season past the halfway point of the season.

3 of the 4 players have an alarming strikeout rate. (Ray, Clark, Diaz)

Ray, Clark, Erceg were all high round college draftees and are NOT young for the minor league level they are playing at.

Trading a single one of these "Top Prospects" could ruin the Milwaukee Brewers rebuilding process.

Any of these guys could be a solid bench player on the 2022 Brewers World Series team.

No need to upset any apple carts Mr. Stearns.


Clark was drafted out of high school, fact. It's been posted on here before, but much of our top organizational talent including Braun struggled in high A. If you start digging in to some current major league players, plenty of them had struggles in the minor leagues at one level or another. The fact is, we won't win consistently without drafting and developing our own talent. Trading prospects for players must be done sparingly and carefully for the brewers to be successful, that might mean we get outbid more often than not, and that's ok.

And you are clearly cherry picking a few guys having down seasons. I notice you don't have brinson, phillips, dubon, burnes, ortiz, gatewood, harrison, etc stats listed. Plenty of our prospects are having very good seasons. Expecting every hitter to post 800+ ops and every pitcher to 10k/9 and sub 3 era is just silly. That's not how it works. The bigger the pool of talented prospects, the more that come out the other end as quality major leaguers. It's simple numbers.


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#6

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:08 AM Post
Posts: 615
Location: New Berlin, WI
adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
Can't we post things without being so dramatic towards the style or approach of our GM?


Apparently not.

Prospect paths are not always 'rake your way all the way up to the majors', but for some, if it's not awesome results in the last few months, they're future bench players. Heck, Lewis Brinson had a .277 OBP for the season in AA when he came over from Texas last year.

Although with the struggles being almost across the board at High A, I can't help but wonder if they are going to take a very close look at the Carolina coaching staff after the season.


I was thinking that before the season to be honest. Remember how absolutely dreadful our high a team was last year? A reminder of their 40-97 record. Mind you it had significantly less talent, but there were good players there and the numbers were almost like if you sent 9 pitchers to the plate every day. I was shocked that they had almost no turnover at that level. Subpar results 2 years in a row, especially with all the talent they have, I have to think there will be some turnover before next year.


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#7

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:12 AM Post
Posts: 2324
Trent Clark was drafted out of high school two years ago - so he is actually young for the league he's playing in.

Chase Anderson, arguably the Brewers' best starting pitcher this year before his oblique injury, was apparently the throw-in player in that Jean Segura trade that also brought Diaz to the Brewers. I double checked quite a few headlines, and Diaz is actually listed 3rd in the list of players acquired from that deal - right after Anderson and Aaron Hill.

Call me crazy, but it seems pretty foolish to just give up on young players who have been playing professionally for 1 year, 2 years out of high school, and your 2016 minor league player of the year.

When making snarky posts it helps to be completely accurate when you're trying to make a point that is pretty foolish to begin with. Better luck next time.


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#8

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:13 AM Post
Posts: 5865
A Swing and A Drive said:
The point is that the stats of these players are NOT bell-weathers to future MLB success.

Our GM would be smart to include them in a trade to improve the current ball club while their perceived "prospect" value is still high, as all 4 players are considered Top 10 Brewers prospects.


You can't have it both ways. Your initial post talks about how they're all hitting in the .230s and strike out a lot, now you say trade them when value is high. If they're so bad, how can their value be so high? Or maybe you think GMs look at BA prospect list when determining player value?

With one or two of those guys, we're likely seeing their floor. One or two others, they may never improve much. Which ones are they? I'm sure the player development people have an idea, but simple answer is nobody knows for sure. So the risk is you trade away the guy that ends up being an All-Star. That's not to say you never trade top prospects, and I don't think anyone has said that.


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#9

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:20 AM Post
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I am all for trading prospects (any prospects) in SMART trades but this post seems to suggest that 1. Right now is the time when these guys will be most highly rated and we should sell them when we can. 2. There is someone of value on the trade market that is available now that is worth the investment of prospects 3. That we all appreciate sarcasm.

I get that this is a team message board for a sport but the over the top anti-Stearns sarcasm is getting very old to me. Guessing this is just sour grapes because of the reports that we aren't in on Sonny Gray anymore but we have no idea who Stearns may or may not be talking to at this point. I for one am glad to save our prospects for either or own team or in trades where we are targeting a guy way better than Sonny Gray and if Oakland demanded too much I am glad we walked away.


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#10

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:23 AM Post
Posts: 10738
FVBrewerFan said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
The point is that the stats of these players are NOT bell-weathers to future MLB success.

Our GM would be smart to include them in a trade to improve the current ball club while their perceived "prospect" value is still high, as all 4 players are considered Top 10 Brewers prospects.


You can't have it both ways. Your initial post talks about how they're all hitting in the .230s and strike out a lot, now you say trade them when value is high. If they're so bad, how can their value be so high? Or maybe you think GMs look at BA prospect list when determining player value?

With one or two of those guys, we're likely seeing their floor. One or two others, they may never improve much. Which ones are they? I'm sure the player development people have an idea, but simple answer is nobody knows for sure. So the risk is you trade away the guy that ends up being an All-Star. That's not to say you never trade top prospects, and I don't think anyone has said that.


I think the point he makes is these guys still have value despite less than stellar results this season, but that value can disappear quickly as it did with the likes of Coulter when they don't produce in the minors over a couple of seasons. Even promising guys doing well at A ball are far from sure things. So is Brinson for that matter. If Brinson was a sure thing, he'd be in the big leagues right now patrolling CF for the Brewers. He's 23, an age where the top guys are big league contributors if not yet stars. See Arcia. Not to say Brinson won't be a huge contributor at the big league level fairly soon, but his value is undetermined at this point.


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#11

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:26 AM Post
Posts: 266
April .754
May .795
June .450
July .831


So yeah, Diaz had a really, really bad June, it happens. He's been fine the rest of he way but that bad month really drags down the overall numbers. It happened but there is context here. Is it really all that different from what he did last year when no one had any complaints?

Clark looks about the same except his bad month was May. Otherwise, his numbers are about the same as Diaz.

Sure, Ray hasn't been what we hoped he would be but no reason to write him off either. Same with Erceg.


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#12

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:29 AM Post
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Posts: 1611
JohnBriggs12 said:
FVBrewerFan said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
The point is that the stats of these players are NOT bell-weathers to future MLB success.

Our GM would be smart to include them in a trade to improve the current ball club while their perceived "prospect" value is still high, as all 4 players are considered Top 10 Brewers prospects.


You can't have it both ways. Your initial post talks about how they're all hitting in the .230s and strike out a lot, now you say trade them when value is high. If they're so bad, how can their value be so high? Or maybe you think GMs look at BA prospect list when determining player value?

With one or two of those guys, we're likely seeing their floor. One or two others, they may never improve much. Which ones are they? I'm sure the player development people have an idea, but simple answer is nobody knows for sure. So the risk is you trade away the guy that ends up being an All-Star. That's not to say you never trade top prospects, and I don't think anyone has said that.


I think the point he makes is these guys still have value despite less than stellar results this season, but that value can disappear quickly as it did with the likes of Coulter when they don't produce in the minors over a couple of seasons. Even promising guys doing well at A ball are far from sure things. So is Brinson for that matter. If Brinson was a sure thing, he'd be in the big leagues right now patrolling CF for the Brewers. He's 23, an age where the top guys are big league contributors if not yet stars. See Arcia. Not to say Brinson won't be a huge contributor at the big league level fairly soon, but his value is undetermined at this point.


Yes, and I don't even disagree with the premise. My point is that you still make smart trades with these guys if you are going to trade them (not just to make a deal) and that the emotion-based snarkiness is getting old from some on these boards.


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#13

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:32 AM Post
Posts: 266
JohnBriggs12 said:
FVBrewerFan said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
The point is that the stats of these players are NOT bell-weathers to future MLB success.

Our GM would be smart to include them in a trade to improve the current ball club while their perceived "prospect" value is still high, as all 4 players are considered Top 10 Brewers prospects.


You can't have it both ways. Your initial post talks about how they're all hitting in the .230s and strike out a lot, now you say trade them when value is high. If they're so bad, how can their value be so high? Or maybe you think GMs look at BA prospect list when determining player value?

With one or two of those guys, we're likely seeing their floor. One or two others, they may never improve much. Which ones are they? I'm sure the player development people have an idea, but simple answer is nobody knows for sure. So the risk is you trade away the guy that ends up being an All-Star. That's not to say you never trade top prospects, and I don't think anyone has said that.


I think the point he makes is these guys still have value despite less than stellar results this season, but that value can disappear quickly as it did with the likes of Coulter when they don't produce in the minors over a couple of seasons. Even promising guys doing well at A ball are far from sure things. So is Brinson for that matter. If Brinson was a sure thing, he'd be in the big leagues right now patrolling CF for the Brewers. He's 23, an age where the top guys are big league contributors if not yet stars. See Arcia. Not to say Brinson won't be a huge contributor at the big league level fairly soon, but his value is undetermined at this point.


Yeah, I'm not buying this line of thinking at all. The same group of folks that keeps down playing the value of our prospects is the same group that thinks we can just waltz in and trade that "bunch of garbage" for Sonny Gray. If these players have value it's because they have the talent to be valued for. You don't have some magic evaluation tool that tells you the whole entire industry is over valuing these players and ONLY YOU knows their true value.


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#14

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:47 AM Post
Posts: 476
Location: Madison, WI
82brewcrew82 said:
Yeah, I'm not buying this line of thinking at all. The same group of folks that keeps down playing the value of our prospects is the same group that thinks we can just waltz in and trade that "bunch of garbage" for Sonny Gray. If these players have value it's because they have the talent to be valued for. You don't have some magic evaluation tool that tells you the whole entire industry is over valuing these players and ONLY YOU knows their true value.


Yes, if all these players are .230 hitters and can't play, exactly why would a MLB GM give up something of value for any (or all) of them?


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#15

Posted: July 25, 2017, 8:52 AM Post
Posts: 6395
Location: Kenosha, WI
I have a hard time believing a random forum poster is ahead of the curve and already knows these guys will amount to nothing...but a MLB GM is going to still value these guys highly and we can make out like bandits. You are sitting here staring at a couple stats while every GM has an army of professional scouts watching these guys.

Who to trust...


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#16

Posted: July 25, 2017, 9:38 AM Post
Posts: 266
KeithStone53151 said:
I was thinking that before the season to be honest. Remember how absolutely dreadful our high a team was last year? A reminder of their 40-97 record. Mind you it had significantly less talent, but there were good players there and the numbers were almost like if you sent 9 pitchers to the plate every day. I was shocked that they had almost no turnover at that level. Subpar results 2 years in a row, especially with all the talent they have, I have to think there will be some turnover before next year.


I'd say Peralta, Burnes, Gatewood, Stokes and QTC have had very good years under the tutelage of the Carolina staff.

I'd say Yamamoto, Diaz, Clark, Griep, Harrison, and Ponce have been very good

Medeiros and Supak have been OK relative to expectations. Erceg and Ray are probably the only two I would truly say severely under performed among anyone you would attempt to call a prospect.


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#17

Posted: July 25, 2017, 9:57 AM Post
Posts: 439
So the purpose of this thread is there is a prime selling point between failing and failed prospect that the Brewers should do what they can to unload?
The Brewers should value performance and devalue potential in prospects below AA at a greater level relative to 29 other ballclubs?
Or that Erceg, Diaz, Clark, and Ray specifically are all as valuable as they will ever be?
Until someone can show me a deeper analysis, I am going to stay under the strategy that prospects are like stocks. Some will be worthless, there are ups and downs, but we are in it for the longhaul and need to invest as heavily as it makes sense to do so in relation to our relative probabilities of winning a championship at any given time.


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#18

Posted: July 25, 2017, 10:12 AM Post
Posts: 3857
In my opinion:

Top Prospects: Brinson. Burnes.

Next tier: Hader. Ortiz. Phillips. Woodruff. Hiura.

Next tier: Ray. Clark. Erceg. Diaz. Cordell. Dubon. Harrison. Gatewood. Bickford.

That's my rationale behind being willing to move some of these guys. I wouldn't move Brinson and I'd only move Burnes if it didn't involve another of the top four pitchers. I think people who view 8 or 9 of our prospects as "top prospects" are putting way too much faith in our guys.

Interesting enough neither BA or MLB seems too high on Burns. MLB has him as our #6 and BA as our #5


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#19

Posted: July 25, 2017, 10:17 AM Post
Posts: 615
Location: New Berlin, WI
82brewcrew82 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I was thinking that before the season to be honest. Remember how absolutely dreadful our high a team was last year? A reminder of their 40-97 record. Mind you it had significantly less talent, but there were good players there and the numbers were almost like if you sent 9 pitchers to the plate every day. I was shocked that they had almost no turnover at that level. Subpar results 2 years in a row, especially with all the talent they have, I have to think there will be some turnover before next year.


I'd say Peralta, Burnes, Gatewood, Stokes and QTC have had very good years under the tutelage of the Carolina staff.

I'd say Yamamoto, Diaz, Clark, Griep, Harrison, and Ponce have been very good

Medeiros and Supak have been OK relative to expectations. Erceg and Ray are probably the only two I would truly say severely under performed among anyone you would attempt to call a prospect.


For starters, you missed Diplan and he falls in line with Erceg and Ray for sure as a far below expectations guy. I also would say Diaz, Clark, medeiros, and supak have performed below expectations at the high a level. It's fair to give them credit for a few of those high performers, but they got so much talent this year, you'd think the success rate would be greater and you'd see more guys in the 800+ ops range. Also it's very difficult to ignore all the K's. Nearly all of our top hitting prospects at this level are striking out at alarming rates. You of course can't blame everything on the coaches, but when these K rates are such an across the board issue...it makes you wonder what our coaches are telling these prospects.


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#20

Posted: July 25, 2017, 11:08 AM Post
Posts: 805
Lot of factual errors in this thread.

1. Trent Clark was drafted 15th in 2015
2. Trent Clark was a high school draftee
3. Ryan Braun never struggled in the minors. He was drafted in 2005 and roared through the minors. He hit .324 with 34 homers in 2007 in the majors.


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