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Nathan Kirby

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Offline  Nathan Kirby
#1

Posted: August 31, 2017, 3:18 AM Post
Posts: 301
I'm sure this has been discussed on here, but does anyone have any update on how he's progressing? Is he throwing in Arizona...he has had any setbacks?

He was obviously an intriguing prospect, but I haven't seen anything about him after his latest surgery that was supposed to sideline him for 8-12 weeks back in May.


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Offline  Re: Nathan Kirby
#2

Posted: August 31, 2017, 8:51 AM Post
Posts: 203
Good question, and unfortunately I don't have an answer. I wonder though if they are just taking it really slow with him right now, in hopes that they can get him back to 100% health come next spring? He missed all of last year with TJ surgery, and then had another elbow injury back in May as he was working his way back. I just wonder if they aren't targeting next spring with him and treating him with kid gloves right now. At this stage, anything we get out of Kirby at the big league level (down the road) would be a very pleasant surprise. For his sake and ours, I hope that he can come back stronger than ever and can put the injuries behind him. However, this guy seems like a guy that may never be able to stay fully healthy.


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Offline  Re: Nathan Kirby
#3

Posted: August 31, 2017, 9:18 PM Post
Posts: 301
madtownhawk said:
Good question, and unfortunately I don't have an answer. I wonder though if they are just taking it really slow with him right now, in hopes that they can get him back to 100% health come next spring? He missed all of last year with TJ surgery, and then had another elbow injury back in May as he was working his way back. I just wonder if they aren't targeting next spring with him and treating him with kid gloves right now. At this stage, anything we get out of Kirby at the big league level (down the road) would be a very pleasant surprise. For his sake and ours, I hope that he can come back stronger than ever and can put the injuries behind him. However, this guy seems like a guy that may never be able to stay fully healthy.



That second surgery after the TJ surgery seems to be where you start talking about a guy not coming back. That 10 pct of guys who don't make it back. But that's just total speculation.

I was hoping to hear he was on a limited and supervised throwing routine down in Arizona in the hopes that, like you said, he could come back next year. But the silence on him is a bit disconcerting(though not rare).

We have Taylor Williams to look at as a guy who missed two years and is now back pitching with is velocity back to what it was and putting up exceptional numbers.


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Offline  Re: Nathan Kirby
#4

Posted: September 01, 2017, 9:33 AM Post
Posts: 203
OnTheBlack said:
madtownhawk said:
Good question, and unfortunately I don't have an answer. I wonder though if they are just taking it really slow with him right now, in hopes that they can get him back to 100% health come next spring? He missed all of last year with TJ surgery, and then had another elbow injury back in May as he was working his way back. I just wonder if they aren't targeting next spring with him and treating him with kid gloves right now. At this stage, anything we get out of Kirby at the big league level (down the road) would be a very pleasant surprise. For his sake and ours, I hope that he can come back stronger than ever and can put the injuries behind him. However, this guy seems like a guy that may never be able to stay fully healthy.



That second surgery after the TJ surgery seems to be where you start talking about a guy not coming back. That 10 pct of guys who don't make it back. But that's just total speculation.

I was hoping to hear he was on a limited and supervised throwing routine down in Arizona in the hopes that, like you said, he could come back next year. But the silence on him is a bit disconcerting(though not rare).

We have Taylor Williams to look at as a guy who missed two years and is now back pitching with is velocity back to what it was and putting up exceptional numbers.


Yeah, that's why I wonder if the Brewers are just going to put kid gloves on this guy and ease him back slowly so that he's hopefully ready to go come next spring. At this point, he'd be a huge bonus to an already deep group of pitching prospects in our system. And, I'm sure they'll probably really limit his innings next year if he is able to come back and pitch (a la Williams this year). Would be big though if we can get Williams, Houser, Kirby and Devin Williams all back to near 100% next year.


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Offline  Re: Nathan Kirby
#5

Posted: September 02, 2017, 5:32 PM Post
Posts: 3119
It would be great, but I'm more interested in getting Perrin, Ponce, and the A+/Full-Season A pitchers developed.


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Offline  Re: Nathan Kirby
#6

Posted: September 02, 2017, 5:43 PM Post
Posts: 7250
OnTheBlack said:
madtownhawk said:
That 10 pct of guys who don't make it back\
.


When I worked in baseball, there was some oft-quoted study that showed that minor league pitchers going under the knife had something like 1% or 5% (or something like that) chance of ever reaching the big leagues.


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Offline  Re: Nathan Kirby
#7

Posted: September 02, 2017, 8:05 PM Post
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Posts: 433
DHonks said:
OnTheBlack said:
madtownhawk said:
That 10 pct of guys who don't make it back\
.


When I worked in baseball, there was some oft-quoted study that showed that minor league pitchers going under the knife had something like 1% or 5% (or something like that) chance of ever reaching the big leagues.


I feel like that study is heavily skewed by the fact that most minor leaguers never make it to the big leagues anyways, so of course those that get injured would have even more trouble but lots of terrible players won't make the majors anyways regardless of whether or not they get injured.


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Offline  Re: Nathan Kirby
#8

Posted: September 14, 2017, 2:17 AM Post
Posts: 301
Greenleaf1 said:

I feel like that study is heavily skewed by the fact that most minor leaguers never make it to the big leagues anyways, so of course those that get injured would have even more trouble but lots of terrible players won't make the majors anyways regardless of whether or not they get injured.



That was my first thought to that as well. What's the pct of pitchers who make the big leagues anyway? How many make it to A+ even if they're healthy.

When you're talking about young high upside guys like Kirby..especially guys like Kirby who are advanced pitchers who were projected to be 1st round picks...you expect them to have a Tommy John at some point. Normally I'm not that upset if a young guy has TJ surgery(a lot more worried about a shoulder surgery, hence my concern over Jimmy Nelson).

But again...just TJ surgery, fine. That second surgery after? Then it starts to become a long shot. The thing that sucks is it sounds like Kirby was starting to throw the ball really well before his setback, ramping that fastball up to 96-97.

I guess we probably won't know until next year. If he's throwing and in camp next year, there's still a sliver of hope. If he's still trying to get healthy..well, at least guys like Ponce, Burnes, Peralta and others have made big jumps this year. Plus you have Taylor Williams who looks like he could be a viable closer/SU man as soon as next year with his stuff.


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Offline  Re: Nathan Kirby
#9

Posted: October 05, 2017, 8:35 PM Post
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Minor League Minutia Master
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Posts: 49956
Nathan Kirby Happy To Be Back On The Mound
Josh Norris, Baseball America

Also notes on buying the Mudcats, and Payton Henry...


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