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System could make a BIG jump

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Offline  System could make a BIG jump
#1

Posted: February 21, 2018, 7:22 PM Post
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Location: oklahoma city
It seems hard to believe with all the talent we traded away this off-season. But, seeing the tweet today that Kirby and bickford and full go and dev Williams is throwing off a flat mound (the ground...) and missaka is close to returning I see an opportunity for this current crop of players to be ranked ahead of last years by mid-season

Hear me out here. We have bickford, Ray, Grisham, Coulter, Nottingham, Taylor, hauser, Williams, miederos, and Lopez were all top 100 prospects at one point by one service or another. If 1/3 of them bounce back that gives the brewers 3 more top 100 guys, imagine if half of them bounce back ;-).

We had a pretty big international signing period last season, on top of that we have Lara who is STILL young and could be a breakout player.

Then I think it’s worth considering that Erceg seems to be criminally under-rated.

This system could take a big jump just through health and a few bounce backs. I for one am excited to follow this minor league season!!


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#2

Posted: February 21, 2018, 8:13 PM Post
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Without reading what you said because it is something we talk about every year:

I could say the same thing and make the same type of argument every single year.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#3

Posted: February 21, 2018, 9:40 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Without reading what you said because it is something we talk about every year:

I could say the same thing and make the same type of argument every single year.


I was thinking the same thing about what you wrote... [wink] you could at least have some constructive feedback on it....

Kirby - Its taking a lot of patience, but I'm excited to see him this year.
Lara - Stick a fork in him... he's done. Sure, he is still young, but there just isn't any growth. I don't see it getting better.
Bickford - I'll be watching any report on his FB speed this year. Seems like he was 88-90 lately with bad results. If he is back in mid-90s, he could be interesting.
Ray - I have some hope for him figuring it out, but I'm concerned.
Grisham - Similar to Ray but looking very much plateaued.
Coulter - I don't see upside anymore.
Nottingham - Hard to really judge as defensive reports seem to have improvement. Shown a good bat, then disappeared. Will be a key year to see if he can put together..
Tyrone Taylor - Doesn't seem to have much going for him. Not great defense. No bat improvement or promise. Trading Brinson and Harrison gives him more chances, but not much upside.
Hauser - I liked Hauser before his injury as a starter. Has a smaller chance as a SP now, but I think will at least make a good RP. Just needs to hold his control.
Taylor Williams - I'm almost certain he could be in the BP this year... unless they try to make a SP out of him again. But looks great either way.
Devin Williams - A sleeper. He was slowly, but consistently improved as he climbed the system.
Miederos - So much talent... so many problems. No idea if he can put it all together, but I think he has a chance at the BP yet. Lefties get a lot of chances.
Lopez - Man, what happened to him??? I have no idea what to expect his year. Still something there, but was exposed a the MLB level.
Erceg - Kind of down last year at Carolina but I'm guessing he will be a big breakout at AA this year.
Missaki - After two TJs, I don't have high expecations from him.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#4

Posted: February 22, 2018, 12:53 AM Post
Posts: 1499
I think for the most part you are looking in the wrong places but I do agree with you for different reasons. Guys who got delayed and aged usually don't rebound in the top 100 rankings without setting the world on fire. Kodi still has rhb issues despite his big improvement. Kirby will get babied, we know this. Lara is toast and Grisham doesn't have enough flash with the cf defense concerns. I like Dev, I like Williams, I like houser but I expect bullpen which is not top 100 stuff.

BUT

I think Burnes Hiura climb as Woodruff loses eligability.
Phillips could get enough love to stay top 100 low.
Peralta is going to crack the top 100 soon
Lutz is going to crack the top 100 soon
Erceg as you said, soo depressed by carolina could crack the top 100
Dubon could if CS inflates him.

And the other reason is a lot of pitchers. Young guys on the proper trajectory who could pop. Ponce ended last year on fire. 2nd round pedigree. Jumped to AA improved and it could be clicking for the big man. Jankins Zach Brown ended last season on fire and Braden Webb improved down the stretch. 3 college arms from 2016. Doing woodruff like things but 1-2 years from catching up with him in service time. They keep this up in A+ AA ball and attention will come their way fast. Lemons and Murphy too new to know.

Theres some guys who could really jump. I dont see much on offense hiding. I don't see the Harrison jump type. Carmona is very interesting but he might need to be 20 in A+ first. Love stokes as a 4th OF but that's not top 100.

Then ray ortiz have stagnated... but a break out is possible and would get them back in the top 100 fast.

I see some potential. Maybe not top 50 except for Hiura and Burnes this year but plenty in the low 75-100 range. Lutz could get top 50 just don't think this year.

2016 draft class arms are showing up. Burnes Brown Webb Jankins even Roegner. It's an impressive start. O... eh. Erceg. Feliciano Henry have my attention though.
2017 the reverse. Unknown arms but hiura lutz kj carroll all look good.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#5

Posted: February 22, 2018, 2:12 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Without reading what you said because it is something we talk about every year:

I could say the same thing and make the same type of argument every single year.


And every other team could say the same thing too.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#6

Posted: February 22, 2018, 6:02 AM Post
Posts: 1499
When's the last time we had back to back drafts look this impactful quickly?
When's the last time we had int signings to talk about?

2017 preseason watched burnes harrison peralta stokes carmona yamamoto explode up the rankings. Kodi and Supak made a big move as well. 2017 added hiura lutz kj straight into our top 20.

Traded 1 big mover in Harrison, diaz slid, brinson was the star labeled prospect and yamamoto went from not mentioned to our top 25. 1 year.

8 big movers and not due to graduations, trades or declining stock from others. I'd bet on a farm thats producing a good number of fast risers over the crops we've had pre 2015 where people rose then vanished. No need to be so pessimistic. Its not like people are expecting multiple top 20 guys here.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#7

Posted: February 22, 2018, 6:14 AM Post
Posts: 2527
Narrative and perception matter a great deal in these rankings. In this case the Brewers system has already been viewed positively for a few years, and some of the players mentioned who might normally face more skepticism if they start performing could generate a 'and we weren't even counting these guys before vibe'. I don't know how plausible that is, but commentators are more likely to catch onto that then they would have a couple of years ago.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#8

Posted: February 22, 2018, 7:47 AM Post
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trwi7 said:
MrTPlush said:
Without reading what you said because it is something we talk about every year:

I could say the same thing and make the same type of argument every single year.


And every other team could say the same thing too.


Whew, don’t get so excited so fast! ....

I can’t help it, I’m excited, and no, I don’t think this is like every other year and every other team. We have SERIOUS talent coming back from injury. And all of them may never be the same, but they are like finding some free lottery tickets, why wouldn’t you scratch them?!?

Lara has been maddening and disappointing, I’m not sure he’s done yet, but maybe.

Orimoloye is another who, if he makes a jump could be a fast riser, but has serious adjustments to make.

I also think it’s worth getting excited about hitting on one of the trio of Pennington, Derby, and Supak. All 3 have stuff and have had results at one point or another.

I think we have a couple hitters that could take a step forward and really add some depth if doubon has a good showing and hardwood takes another step. Chad Mclanahan has not had a great pro showing yet but the tools are there. I think Garcia is showing he has quite a bit of potential and obviously Luts, if he produces like last year, should be a top 100 fixture.

Then back to pitching Braden Webb and Zach brown both seemed to figure it out by the end of last year. Diplan and Ponce are both good arms that could have a positive jump.

There is just a lot to be excited about with this farm and we have not had this type of depth in a LOOOOONG time.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#9

Posted: February 22, 2018, 8:05 AM Post
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How soon we forget. It wasn't all that long ago that all of you would have laughed if someone made the suggestion the system could make a big jump. There were years in the past where making a big jump would have meant going from 30th best system to 26th.

This is a year where you have high upside arms coming back from injury, several high ceiling hitters who had uneven years last year that could break-out, and talented low minors players who could explode. All of that starting with a system that's very good to begin with. You simply couldn't have said that in most years of the Brewers existence.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#10

Posted: February 22, 2018, 11:21 AM Post
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Yeah if it's filled with C+ Sickels guys with upside, anything can lead to a big jump.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#11

Posted: February 22, 2018, 2:28 PM Post
Posts: 1780
CheezWizHed said:
Lara - Stick a fork in him... he's done. Sure, he is still young, but there just isn't any growth. I don't see it getting better.


Over the years of reading his reports, if I am reading between the lines correctly, he has the "I have the money already, I don't have to try attitude". I could see an outside chance of a wake up call when the Brewers cut ties.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#12

Posted: February 22, 2018, 2:41 PM Post
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Easiest thing in the world to say Lara's done. He hasn't shown any reason to be optimistic, and he probably is done. But he's too young and talented to close the book on him today. We'll find out soon enough.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#13

Posted: February 22, 2018, 9:18 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
Easiest thing in the world to say Lara's done. He hasn't shown any reason to be optimistic, and he probably is done. But he's too young and talented to close the book on him today. We'll find out soon enough.


He was painful to watch last year in Appleton. He has nowhere to go but up.


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#14

Posted: February 23, 2018, 1:04 PM Post
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I'd be very surprised if we could maintain our ranking from last year.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#15

Posted: February 23, 2018, 2:24 PM Post
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Remember Sickel's disclaimer:

A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars.

The Brewers have 25(!) C+ guys.... and that C+ list does not include Payton Henry, Cooper Hummel, Max Lazar, Jesus Lujano, Ernesto Martinez, Jr, Chad McClanahan, Karlos Morales, Brendan Murphy, Antonio Pinero, Michele Vassalotti, or Devin Williams, guys who have some legitimate upside. It's not a system loaded with C guys who are in AAA/AA, these guys could develop into B- prospects a year from now; B- currently gets you a top-10 ranking (#11, Grisham, is a C+/B-), B currently is top-5.

If one out of every five of these C+/low-level C guys develops into a B prospect... that's seven more B prospects. That would be huge.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#16

Posted: February 23, 2018, 5:29 PM Post
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I have always said Lara has been pushed too aggressively for age. They never put him in spot to succeed. 19/20in Wisconsin is no easy task. You coach kids like him in high school who in middle school were such studs because they were naturally more gifted, matured body, stronger, and etc. They get arrogant, stop trying, and become average. I’ve seen many by time they are in junior or senior seasons make one of two choices.... wash up or put in work to become Stars again. It really is a mental thing. They never had to work to be better than everyone. They had been told whole life they are so great. When they fail & others catch up & surpass them.... they shut off.

I think Lara is in same boat. Been told how great you are your whole life, you got paid big, and never had to adjust or grow to earn any of that praise. Then he has failed & natural talent hasn’t been enough. You shutdown. Trust me! Large majority of teenagers shutdown big time of this. One of my kids was unbelievable & he actually fell into depression, disconnected from all friends and team, and went from competing for starting job as freshman to marginal player as senior. Many of you are so quick to say he’s 20 & has sucked.... he’s done. Cut ties. But I’ve seen too many kids finally have it click for them. Decide they want this & will work for it. I don’t know him personally & cant promise he will make that choice but the talent is there. Ride it out and see. This is a big year for him where he will finally be with people close to his age. Still plenty of time.

As a teacher & coach, you can see my bias of not quitting on young kids but when you deal with them everyday & the mental & maturity aspects that plague them.... you know they can figure it out & right ship.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#17

Posted: April 15, 2018, 4:18 PM Post
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BrewersAA said:
It seems hard to believe with all the talent we traded away this off-season. But, seeing the tweet today that Kirby and bickford and full go and dev Williams is throwing off a flat mound (the ground...) and missaka is close to returning I see an opportunity for this current crop of players to be ranked ahead of last years by mid-season

Hear me out here. We have bickford, Ray, Grisham, Coulter, Nottingham, Taylor, hauser, Williams, miederos, and Lopez were all top 100 prospects at one point by one service or another. If 1/3 of them bounce back that gives the brewers 3 more top 100 guys, imagine if half of them bounce back ;-).

We had a pretty big international signing period last season, on top of that we have Lara who is STILL young and could be a breakout player.

Then I think it’s worth considering that Erceg seems to be criminally under-rated.

This system could take a big jump just through health and a few bounce backs. I for one am excited to follow this minor league season!!


Bump! With a SMALL SAMPLE SIZE alert...

As of right now just about everyone of these guys is balling out. Like I said, if even just half of them bounce back our system could make a big jump. Ray finally looks like a 5th overall pick (I think he just hit his 4th double today) Erceg looks great, Nottingham looks great, miederos looks nasty, Lara looks REALLY good, orimoleye looks much better, nuehluse looks great, Tyrone Taylor looks great, Hauser Lopez and Williams all look really good and have been up with the big club this season.

Most of the feedback on this list was negative and “it could be said about any system” but I disagree, we have tremendous upside in this system and a lot of people were writing off really young players I think a bit to soon. That’s all happy Sunday!


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#18

Posted: April 15, 2018, 8:15 PM Post
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While you'd like to be patient with Lara and just leave him alone, you almost have to challenge him this year if his success continues. He's already heading for Rule 5 eligibility and you need to figure out if he's worth protecting or not.


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#19

Posted: April 15, 2018, 11:53 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
While you'd like to be patient with Lara and just leave him alone, you almost have to challenge him this year if his success continues. He's already heading for Rule 5 eligibility and you need to figure out if he's worth protecting or not.


I'm disinclined to.

Keep him at Wisconsin, and then move him to Carolina/Biloxi next year. I think it is very important to make sure he has a good year this year. Same with Demi if these numbers hold.


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Offline  Re: System could make a BIG jump
#20

Posted: April 16, 2018, 6:55 AM Post
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I agree, on making sure they have continued success. I think with Lara there is a very real possibility that he was not taking the game seriously as a bonus baby. I think the brewers keeping him at short as long as they did may not have been the best for him.


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