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Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018

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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#21

Posted: July 27, 2018, 1:19 PM Post
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Considering that Gatewood is a 1B-only - and also considering his knee injury and his BB:K ratio - I think it would be very difficult for another team to carry him or want to carry him.

Much easier to stash a lefty in the pen and use him as a LOOGY, thus I'd protect Kirby over Gatewood but I don't think there is a strong need to protect Kirby.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#22

Posted: July 27, 2018, 2:36 PM Post
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This is closetbrewerfan's post, the board was doing some funky duplicating today with this post, so reposting it here. The posts just above this reference the text below:

Here is my updated list based on the most recent stats (MLB prospect #)

Must protect:
1. Ortiz (#7 prospect) - Good stuff but oft injured. The injury history is not an issue for a rule 5 pick as that is an excuse to shield him from the majors for part of the year.
2. Supak (#18) - Really good numbers. Mid rotation starter potential. Seems to struggle when promoted but then settles in. Gotta believe a team would take a flier on him.
3. Torres-Costa - Relief prospect but has stellar K/9 numbers again this year (11.5 in '18, 11.8 for career). Ready for majors now. Only 23 now, so he will be picked by someone.

Maybe protect:
4. Stokes (#20) - 20/20 potential. LF but could play CF. Would be a good 4th OF with upside.
5. Gatewood (#14) - Tons of power and is versatile as he can play 1B/3B and has played SS. Probably could be put in the OF as well. He is a high enough prospect that a team would take a chance on, but his swing and miss issues would limit much success in the majors right now.
6. D.Williams - Missed all of last year. In A+ with a 4.15 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 9 starts. Mid rotation prospect if he can stay healthy.
7.Ponce (#22) - Backend starter potential. Good stuff, average numbers. Needs more seasoning. Unlikely to do well in majors now but has enough potential to be selected.

Unlikely to be picked but would hate to lose:
8. Kirby - A high draft pick that has missed 2 years of development. Now in A+ and struggling with a 1.6 WHIP. Potential is still there but would be hard to hide in a ML bullpen.
9. Bickford - Once a top 100 prospect, now seems to be a reliever. But could be a good one. Just coming back from injury and suspension, only has 17 IP in A+. Numbers are not too good yet, though he is getting strikeouts.
10. Derby - Swingman or middle relief prospect. He would be a cheap pitcher and is likely ready right now.
11. Perrin - Average stuff but smart pitcher. Swingman upside. Similar to Derby.
12. Harber - Swingman upside. Has had control problems but is improving. Not ready for MLs but no more so than Diaz was (although he is a lower rated prospect than Diaz was)
13. Segovia - 4th OF type. Speed and hit tool but no power. 292 BA, 721 OPS and 14-20 is SB at A+. Already have a lot OF depth so the Brewers won't protect him.

I could see the brewers opening up 5 spots this fall with Miley/Asher/Wilkerson and 2 UIF (Orf/Miller). There are 4 guys on the 60 man DL, so I'm assuming Vogt, Kratz, Franklin, and Suter will also be DFAd. That would leave Williams and Ponce unprotected. I could also change my mind quickly on Kirby and Bickford. If they turn around their year, we would need to protect them too. The Brewers have some financial decisions to make on Perez, Villar, Soria. There is some flexibility here but the offseason decisions will be tough if a trade is not made to clear some of these players out.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#23

Posted: July 30, 2018, 7:20 PM Post
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Well, I'll have to assume Gatewood can be left unprotected with his injury. Sucks because I thought he was going to break out some more. Steady improvement


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#24

Posted: July 30, 2018, 11:05 PM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
Well, I'll have to assume Gatewood can be left unprotected with his injury. Sucks because I thought he was going to break out some more. Steady improvement


And he still might continue his breakout. He should be ready to go full-speed in spring training


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#25

Posted: July 31, 2018, 7:03 PM Post
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Does anyone have a good link to the list of prospects who will be rule 5 eligible this year? Having trouble finding a newer list.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#26

Posted: July 31, 2018, 7:05 PM Post
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Removed from the initial list in this thread:

LHP Kodi Medeiros and RHP Luis Ortiz (traded)

RHP Jose Cuas (released)


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#27

Posted: August 02, 2018, 12:35 PM Post
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The 40 man has certainly gotten more manageable. I would protect Costa, Stokes, Supak and Ponce with Devin Williams being borderline.


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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#28

Posted: August 02, 2018, 12:46 PM Post
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Outlander said:
The 40 man has certainly gotten more manageable. I would protect Costa, Stokes, Supak and Ponce with Devin Williams being borderline.

I think I'd take Bickford over Ponce, but I agree with everything else.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#29

Posted: August 02, 2018, 12:48 PM Post
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For Sure Protect:
Ponce
Supak
Stokes

Maybe:
Derby
Torres-Costa
McDowell
Kirby
D. Williams
Herrera

This list has gotten a lot more manageable lately. I think Supak and Stokes are taken for sure if left unprotected, and Ponce wouldn't surprise me, as he profiles as an eventual durable mid-rotation innings eater. Derby isn't special, but he has youth on his side, and has been holding his own at AAA. Torres-Costa could be easily kept as a LOOGY. McDowell is such a terrific defender (maybe the best defensive C in the minors) that anything he adds with the bat may be gravy. I know Kirby hasn't done much, but it would be horrible to lose that arm after he finally made it back. Williams and Herrera are exactly the type of guys teams look for in the Rule 5 that can be hidden as the 7th or 8th reliever. Electric arms.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#30

Posted: August 02, 2018, 1:30 PM Post
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Question: if the Brewers are having these issues there have to be other, more highly rated, teams that have it worse...right? Wouldn't the top rated minor league lists have the same (or worse) issue? What about San Diego, Atlanta, Toronto...etc?


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#31

Posted: August 02, 2018, 3:05 PM Post
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Hammer said:
Question: if the Brewers are having these issues there have to be other, more highly rated, teams that have it worse...right? Wouldn't the top rated minor league lists have the same (or worse) issue? What about San Diego, Atlanta, Toronto...etc?


Not necessarily. San Diego and Atlanta have a ton of lower level minor leaguers that are highly ranked that they don't have to worry about losing for awhile. I know the Yankees are in a very similar situation to the Brewers regarding Rule 5 protection, and they have probably been even more proactive in moving some of those guys.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#32

Posted: August 03, 2018, 12:12 PM Post
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With the number of guys who have to be protected pared down a bit, one thing this will do is give an idea of how the Brewers evaluate their own guys. It wouldn't even shock me if someone like Harber gets protected over bigger names like Bickford, Ponce, Williams and Kirby. It should be interesting.

I'll add that I kind of hope Harber either gets protected or doesn't get selected just because I find him bizarrely compelling to follow. I can't remember ever seeing a guy shift from start to start between high strikeout, high walk and extreme pitch to contact the way he was earlier in the season.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#33

Posted: August 04, 2018, 6:55 AM Post
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segovia could be protected is an interesting project


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#34

Posted: August 04, 2018, 8:25 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
I don't see this as a issue at all. A couple months back I took at the 40 man and figured they would only be one spot short if Burnes was promoted early. That happened but since then at least five spots have opened up and only one more taken for next year. Villar, Phillips and Lopez all off the 40-man. Ortiz and Medeiros now out of the equation. Schoop has to be accounted for, assuming he isn't traded again this off-season (Brewers might want to move his salary).

40 man probably looks something like this once it gets into the off-season:
Pitchers (19) = Albers, Anderson, Barnes, Burnes, Chacin, Davies, Diplan, Guerra, Hader, Houser, Jeffress, Jennings, Knebel, Miley, Nelson, Peralta, Suter, Williams, Woodruff (Soria option unlikely to be picked up, Asher and Wilkinson off the 40 man)
Catcher (3) = Nottingham, Pina (Kratz likely off and a different veteran catcher picked up)
Infield (7) = Aguilar, Arcia, Dubon, Perez, Schoop, Shaw, Thames (Moustakas option unlikely to be picked up, Orf and Saladino off the 40 man)
Outfield (5) = Braun, Broxton, Cain, Santana, Yelich

Approximate total = 34

Not really interested in debating any particular player or off-season acquisitions here. For example, if the Brewers go for a big pitching upgrade, that add would probably knock Wade Miley off of the list, etc. On the flip side, they could look to upgrade catcher but then a MLB piece (maybe someone like Schoop or Thames) that has value could be included in the deal. There are many different variations and moves that will be made but I think 34 is a pretty fair estimate of how it will shake out.

Currently there are only 4 players that I would protect. Cody Ponce, Troy Stokes, Trey Supak, Quintin Torres-Costa. Regarding Stokes, I like him but I don't think there is a future for him in Milwaukee with Yelich and Cain being long-term commitments. He only gets protected due to the speculated trade value he may have. I would have included Gatewood strictly for trade value as well, but I just can't see a team Rule 5'ing an injured first baseman who struggles to post a .300 OBP. Many of the other names that get thrown in there, like Phil Bickford, frankly I'm a bit surprised that names like that come up at all. Other names I can understand, like Perrin, but I just don't see there being enough MLB upside there to lose sleep over if he would get Rule 5'ed by another team.

Personally, I think the Brewers are in pretty decent shape to have 38 players on the 40 man roster when the Rule 5 draft arrives.


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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#35

Posted: August 04, 2018, 11:25 AM Post
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Miley is a free agent.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#36

Posted: August 04, 2018, 1:19 PM Post
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I agree Derby and Perrin are unlikely to be taken so no need to be protected. However, a team could select them with the intent of putting them in the bullpen and if it does not work out, no harm just return them to the brewers. They are both close enough to the majors that they could be considered for a bullpen role.

This is similar to a waiver claim of a player that is out of options. So I guess it is possible the Brewers might want to protect them. Even so, they should have room on the 40 to protect who they need.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#37

Posted: August 05, 2018, 10:30 AM Post
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The Brewers are not in a position to carry a Rule 5 pick on the roster next year (or likely any of the next four years for that matter), so no reason to go into the Rule 5 draft with less than a full 40-man roster unless there is some type of imminent trade that would send an unprotected player for a 40-man roster player. Worry about NRIs making the team in late March if it happens.

Miguel Diaz had a disastrous 2017 in the majors, but pitched really well at AA this year before the callup to AAA. Still wish the Brewers had him in the fold, as those AA numbers could have made for a decent trade chip (or perhaps allowed the Brewers to keep Medeiros).

As historically bad as BAL and KCR are, and with CHW and SDP not that far behind (ahead?), I could see a few more Rule 5 guys than normal being kept next year. Not worth the risk of losing anyone. Add Bethancourt (need 3 catchers) and as many pitchers as possible.

Right now I see six openings - drop: Asher, Kratz, Orf, and one of Saladino/Perez. Add Bethancourt, Supak, Kirby, QT-C, and two of Ponce/D. Williams/Bickford/Harber, and try to deal Stokes and others (Perrin, Derby) for lower-level prospects who don't need to be protected.

Edit: forgot they have to re-add Nelson. 50/50 on Suter as he will miss all of 2019, but I could see the Orioles/Royals claim him and 60-day DL him for all of 2019. So that makes 4/5 adds.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#38

Posted: August 07, 2018, 3:09 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
Not sure how many spots will be open, but if I were to force rank them - with the caveat that it's easier to hide pitchers, especially lefties, than position players on a 25-man roster:

Ortiz
Medeiros
Supak
Kirby
QTC (this is the end of the "must-protect" list)
Ponce
D. Williams
Derby
Stokes
Bickford
Perrin
Gatewood
Harber

No way they'll have that many spaces available. Would be nice to package a few of the borderline guys in a trade; better than losing them. With so many bad teams this year I think a few more Rule 5 guys will be kept next year than usual.

If I were DS I'd offer two of anyone on that list between Derby and Harber in front of the Rays and see if that could rent Ramos.


Just traded one of the borderline guys

https://twitter.com/brewerspd/status/10 ... 04736?s=21


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#39

Posted: August 07, 2018, 3:34 PM Post
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Quick question: If any of our Rule 5 guys are traded, like Medieros and Ortiz and now Perrin was, do they have to be on their new team's 40 man roster next year?


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#40

Posted: August 07, 2018, 3:37 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
Right now I see six openings - drop: Asher, Kratz, Orf, and one of Saladino/Perez. Add Bethancourt, Supak, Kirby, QT-C, and two of Ponce/D. Williams/Bickford/Harber, and try to deal Stokes and others (Perrin, Derby) for lower-level prospects who don't need to be protected.




Called it.


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