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Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018

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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#41

Posted: August 07, 2018, 3:37 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
Right now I see six openings - drop: Asher, Kratz, Orf, and one of Saladino/Perez. Add Bethancourt, Supak, Kirby, QT-C, and two of Ponce/D. Williams/Bickford/Harber, and try to deal Stokes and others (Perrin, Derby) for lower-level prospects who don't need to be protected.




Called it.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#42

Posted: August 07, 2018, 3:47 PM Post

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MoreTrife said:
Quick question: If any of our Rule 5 guys are traded, like Medieros and Ortiz and now Perrin was, do they have to be on their new team's 40 man roster next year?

if they were rule 5 draft eligible coming in to the 2018 offseason, if not protected by their new team by the fall deadline, they could be drafted by another team--including the brewers.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#43

Posted: August 07, 2018, 6:11 PM Post
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djoctagone said:
MoreTrife said:
Quick question: If any of our Rule 5 guys are traded, like Medieros and Ortiz and now Perrin was, do they have to be on their new team's 40 man roster next year?

if they were rule 5 draft eligible coming in to the 2018 offseason, if not protected by their new team by the fall deadline, they could be drafted by another team--including the brewers.


Interesting, thanks. And does protecting them mean 25 man or 40 man roster?


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#44

Posted: August 07, 2018, 6:46 PM Post
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They have to be protected on their team's 40 man roster to avoid being taken in the rule 5 draft. But if they aren't protected and the Brewers were to select one of them, then they would have to stay on the Brewers' 25 man roster all year.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#45

Posted: August 07, 2018, 7:37 PM Post
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MoreTrife said:
LouisEly said:
Right now I see six openings - drop: Asher, Kratz, Orf, and one of Saladino/Perez. Add Bethancourt, Supak, Kirby, QT-C, and two of Ponce/D. Williams/Bickford/Harber, and try to deal Stokes and others (Perrin, Derby) for lower-level prospects who don't need to be protected.


Called it.

Now for my next trick, Stokes to the A's for a lower-level prospect.

The A's did alright the last time they acquired a short, weak-armed LF with some power from the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#46

Posted: August 08, 2018, 8:24 AM Post
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MoreTrife said:
Quick question: If any of our Rule 5 guys are traded, like Medieros and Ortiz and now Perrin was, do they have to be on their new team's 40 man roster next year?


Yes.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#47

Posted: September 25, 2018, 11:16 AM Post
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Looks to me, we could be freeing up to 9 spots on roster.

Soria, Miley, Gio, Kratz, Moose, Saladino, Schoop, Grandyman and Suter (yes take that risk). Not sure on the timing of the options for Moose, etc and how they relate to Rule 5 timeline.

Would keep: QTC, Supak, Derby, Gatewood, Ponce, Stokes Bubble guys: Bickford, Kirby, Williams, Harber.

What would be the deal with Nick Ramirez? I assume he would have to be protected also, right? Or is he so far past this point already, it is more of a free agent, year to year thing?


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#48

Posted: September 25, 2018, 1:29 PM Post
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Ramirez is a free agent but could be rule 5 eligible if he signs a minor league contract before the draft.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#49

Posted: September 25, 2018, 1:49 PM Post
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Highly unlikely they gave up what they did to jettison Schoop and Soria. If they win the WC game and get into the NLDS I think they'll have more than enough revenue to carry a $100M payroll next season, maybe a little more, and Shaw is the only arby guy who should get a significant raise. I think Vogt won't be back and Anderson will be traded, freeing up basically enough to pay Schoop. They need Schoop next year as a bridge to Hiura, and Soria is the type of reliever you look to acquire at the trade deadline so why not keep him?

That being said, as good as Knebel has been since returning from AAA, I could see them letting Soria go and keeping Lyles instead. Lyles has been pretty good as a reliever - walks much higher than career average so those should come down, but much higher K rate and 3.07 FIP.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#50

Posted: September 26, 2018, 4:12 AM Post
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By the way, the initial post in this thread has been kept updated and is accurate.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#51

Posted: September 28, 2018, 9:23 AM Post
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I see them dropping:
Lyles, Granderson, Kratz, Albers, Wilkerson, Jennings, Vogt, and Saladino

Suter and Nelson return from 60-day DL, taking the Lyles ans Granderson spots

They put QTC, Stokes, Gatewood, Supak, Olczak, and Derby on.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#52

Posted: September 28, 2018, 10:05 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
Highly unlikely they gave up what they did to jettison Schoop and Soria. If they win the WC game and get into the NLDS I think they'll have more than enough revenue to carry a $100M payroll next season, maybe a little more, and Shaw is the only arby guy who should get a significant raise. I think Vogt won't be back and Anderson will be traded, freeing up basically enough to pay Schoop. They need Schoop next year as a bridge to Hiura, and Soria is the type of reliever you look to acquire at the trade deadline so why not keep him?

That being said, as good as Knebel has been since returning from AAA, I could see them letting Soria go and keeping Lyles instead. Lyles has been pretty good as a reliever - walks much higher than career average so those should come down, but much higher K rate and 3.07 FIP.


Barring trades sending contracts out, the Brewers are already at $100M without Soria, Schoop, and Moose on next years roster. I do assume they try to trade Anderson and Thames to free up $12M.

Shaw may be the only one to get a huge raise in arby, but there are still 8-9 guys that are going to be eligible for arby or get arby raises next year.

I assume they keep Lyles for the year at the $1M salary, that is a cheap insurance policy. And keep Albers until at least late March to see if he can return to a decent bullpen option.

Yes, I don't see Vogt back on the 40 man roster. I assume retirement.

I realize the Brewers probably bring back Schoop (~ $9M arby cost though), but I wasn't sure when the timing of those options mesh with the rule 5 deadline. I assume the options on those contracts have to be exercised before the December rule 5 draft?? Also worried about losing a lefty stick in the lineup if we keep Schoop.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#53

Posted: September 28, 2018, 1:00 PM Post
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Using Cot's contracts, here's a rundown of 2019 salaries. There are 30 guys on here, so not all of these players will be on the roster. Suter will be on the IR. Albers' contract is guaranteed, so we owe him if we cut him.

Arbitration eligible players are listed with an asterisk (*). Each asterisk next to their name shows the year of arbitration they are in. The arby numbers are guesses, so you can tweak those in your brain as you like. Arby eligible players are not guaranteed a contract, so if don't want to pay the money, we just can cut them loose. Guys like Jennings, Kratz and Perez are guys who might not be kept.

I've included Jonathan Schoop, but that's a big contract and I don't know if they will keep him.

This does not include money for guys with options, including Soria and Moustakas.

Braun - 19.0 ($4M is deferred, but all $19M counts against our salary structure)
Cain - 15.0
Chacin - 6.75
Yelich - 9.75
Thames - 6.0
Anderson - 6.5
Nelson** - 4.0
Knebel** - 5.0
Albers - 2.5
Perez** - 3.0
Jeffress - 3.2
Santana* - 2.0
Davies* - 2.5
Shaw* - 4.0
Pina* - 2.0
Arcia - 0.6
Barnes - 0.6
Aguilar - 0.6
Hader - 0.6
Suter - 0.6
Woodruff - 0.6
Broxton - 0.6
Guerra* - 2.0
Kratz*** - 1.0
Burnes - 0.6
Jennings**** - 2.0
Cedeno*** - 1.5
Peralta - 0.6
Williams, T - 0.6
Schoop - 10.0
30 PLAYERS TOTAL: $113.7M

This team could easily trim $13-17 million (Schoop, Jennings, Kratz, Perez), but we will still need to replace some of their positions - such as backup catcher.

Trades can, obviously, have a big effect as well.

Just thought I'd share this. I'm not advocating for specific moves - just trying to understand where will be salary-wise for 2019.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#54

Posted: September 28, 2018, 2:26 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
I've included Jonathan Schoop, but that's a big contract and I don't know if they will keep him.

This does not include money for guys with options, including Soria and Moustakas.

.....
30 PLAYERS TOTAL: $113.7M

This team could easily trim $13-17 million (Schoop, Jennings, Kratz, Perez), but we will still need to replace some of their positions - such as backup catcher.

Trades can, obviously, have a big effect as well.

Just thought I'd share this. I'm not advocating for specific moves - just trying to understand where will be salary-wise for 2019.


I would hope Nottingham gets backup catcher position - so min. wage. If he can't handle it, then you have to find a trade. But, this is unclear considering that Kratz is getting a lot more time than Pina (if Pina is not limited by injury).

You basically have to add $2.2M for Jeffress incentives that we assume he will earn. And if you like total accounting, include the Garza payment of $2M.

I would actually rather keep Moose at $14M (net cost) versus Schoop at $9-$10M arby amount (assuming Shaw is okay with 2B and the double switches out of game in late situations for defense). I think Moose's defensive advantage on Shaw more than makes up for Shaw at 2B. And I love having another lefty bat. I am assuming that Moose will be at .800 OPS rather than the .770 so far for us.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#55

Posted: November 02, 2018, 6:16 AM Post
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A quick examination of this thread, I came up with only Clancy advocating for Olczak or even mentioning his possibility. Given his recent AFL effort on top of a strong season at AA, seems more and more likely to be protected.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#56

Posted: November 02, 2018, 6:51 AM Post
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ZBTMP said:
A quick examination of this thread, I came up with only Clancy advocating for Olczak or even mentioning his possibility. Given his recent AFL effort on top of a strong season at AA, seems more and more likely to be protected.

And That said:
I feel as though people are completely glossing over the season Jon Olczak has had. His curve is nasty.

Image


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#57

Posted: November 02, 2018, 7:20 AM Post
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LOL, if And That gives the seal of approval I imagine quite a few other teams are looking at him as well. Not that I have any idea what Stearns is thinking but I think Olczak gets protected.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#58

Posted: November 02, 2018, 12:52 PM Post
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And That said:
ZBTMP said:
A quick examination of this thread, I came up with only Clancy advocating for Olczak or even mentioning his possibility. Given his recent AFL effort on top of a strong season at AA, seems more and more likely to be protected.

And That said:
I feel as though people are completely glossing over the season Jon Olczak has had. His curve is nasty.

Image


I said quickly not thoroughly. [laughing]


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#59

Posted: November 09, 2018, 8:51 AM Post
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Outlander said:
LOL, if And That gives the seal of approval I imagine quite a few other teams are looking at him as well. Not that I have any idea what Stearns is thinking but I think Olczak gets protected.


If Stearns did what he did in 2018, he'll want 4-5 interchangeable rostered arms to fill the last spot in the pen, rotating them often. Olczak logically likely fits into those plans. It's a proving ground for young arms and it saves the pen overall.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018
#60

Posted: November 11, 2018, 6:08 AM Post
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Mass Haas said:
Here's a list of the Brewers' players eligible for Rule 5 this fall.

Alphabetical within current level.

SAN ANTONIO:

RHP Tristan Archer
RHP Bubba Derby
INF Jake Hager
UT Nate Orf
LHP Quintin-Torres-Costa
RHP Dan Reynolds

BILOXI:

IF Blake Allemand
SS Luis Aviles, Jr.
1B Jake Gatewood
RHP Preston Gainey
RHP Nate Griep
RHP Conor Harber
LHP Brad Kuntz
C Carlos Leal
C Max McDowell
RHP Jon Olczak
RHP Cody Ponce
RHP Tyler Spurlin
OF Troy Stokes, Jr.
RHP Trey Supak
OF Dillon Thomas

CAROLINA:

RHP Rodrigo Benoit
RHP Phil Bickford
RHP Nattino Diplan
LHP Jake Drossner
RHP Alec Kenilvort
LHP Nathan Kirby
IF Tucker Neuhaus
RHP Jorge Ortega (would normally be a minor league free agent, but signed a deal through 2019 as he was rehabbing Tommy John)
LHP Drake Owenby
RHP Wuilder Rodriguez
OF Joantgel Segovia
LHP Christian Trent
RHP Josh Uhen
RHP Devin Williams

WISCONSIN:

OF Jay Feliciano
RHP Nelson Hernandez
RHP Carlos Herrera
RHP Christian Meister
RHP Michael Petersen
OF Nic Pierre

COLORADO SPRINGS / MARYVALE:

RHP Jesus Brea
RHP Carlos Luna
IF Julio Mendez


Brewers current 40-man roster is at 37, players must be protected for Rule 5 on November 20th.

The deadline to non-tender arbitration eligible players follows that date by ten days, November 30th, so unless the Brewers take action in that regard early, there is only room for limited adds.

With Torres-Costa sidelined by Tommy John, other names of consideration are certainly worthy of discussion -- Derby, Gatewood, Harber, Olczak, Ponce, Stokes, Supak.

In the end, I'll roll with the Supak and Olczak prediction only.

2018 proved how valuable having 40-man pitchers with options who can contribute in the current year is. With scarce room overall, others may not get the additions some fans predicted.


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