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BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition

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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#21

Posted: August 14, 2018, 4:34 PM Post
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JosephC said:
I've gone through the minor league systems over the last couple weekends and tentatively rank the Brewer's system at #23. I had the Brewers with 16 "top 10 organizational prospects" or better prior to the Cordell trade, and currently would have them with only 7. I don't think there is nearly the depth present as some like to credit them with, and the "top 100" group will be Hiura and nobody else when Burnes graduates. And when Burnes does graduate, the Brewers will likely be near the bottom when it comes to pitching prospects. The Giants would be worse, the kind of win this going away IMO. Mariners would be right there, the Sam Carlson injury did not help them. Boston would be there, they have many pitchers listed high but that's a weak farm system and the Groome injury really hurts. KC added some nice pitchers in this draft including Brady Singer, they will have moved ahead of the Brewers when speaking strictly about pitching prospects (but would still be behind the Brewers when looking at the overall system). Cubs...I like Lange and Marquez has gotten some really good reviews lately, they've probably moved ahead of the Brewers when just looking at pitching. Brewers very likely a bottom five system in terms of pitching when Burnes graduates, not really a surprise considering all of Stearns biggest investments have been hitters.


Thanks for sharing your perspective. You're knowledgeable, so it's nice to see a fair, unvarnished assessment.

I think you may be right but I do have optimism. I think in a few years, we could have injected the MLB roster with Ray, Lutz, Hiura, Turang, and perhaps a couple of the catchers (say, 2 out of Nottingham, Feliciano, and Henry) and maybe even Erceg. That's a considerable injection of talent. The crew from the aughts did not have the benefit of much talent infusion after the first wave (you could consider Lucroy perhaps).

As injuries and age crop up on our current nucleus, it would be nice to inject this kind of juice into our lineup.

Then, you have a number of promising young and precocious talents where some with high ceilings may put it together to provide even more, when you look at Rodriguez, Melendez, Abreu, Ward, and some others.

As for pitching, I like Zach Brown and Ashby and perhaps Supak. But, the pitching depth down the line may need a boost. I would not put it at the same level as the position players, a group I am bullish on. I hope at some point, the Brewers can add some more high upside pitching talent.

Every year, we will likely trade off some minor leaguers but I hope the bulk of these guys stay with us to continually inject new blood onto the roster. I think that's important. I would not be suprised to see Stearns trade off some assets for a big piece like Syndergaard or Degrom, or someone with high upside that we have not discussed. That's a good strategy and we can still have some talent that can be added to the roster.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#22

Posted: August 14, 2018, 7:19 PM Post
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And That said:
nate82 said:
I am not sure who takes CF but both could be destined for corner OF spots I'll give the edge to Ward in staying in CF over Abreu long term.

By my eyes Abreu is the superior defender, and by some margin.

Anecdotally, Ward has 4 innings in CF this summer, Abreu has 296. Abreu has more innings in RF as well.


I see it in the opposite direction where Abreu looks more like a corner OF and Ward is more of a CF. Both will more than likely be moved to the corners. I like Abreu's arm more so I think he can handle RF which increases his value where I think Ward is either a CF or a LF. If Ward gets any bigger he definitely won't be a CF and will need to move to LF. I think Ward needs to get bigger as he needs to develop some more power as is evident in his current slash line. If Ward can find some more power you have two very similar players offensively.

Pablo Abreu slash line
.266 / .370 / .475 / .845

Je'von Ward slash line
.308 / .394 / .408 / .802


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#23

Posted: August 14, 2018, 7:52 PM Post
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The lower levels of the minors are definitely barren for pitching, but the Brewers have some assets to trade to help replenish the farm system. Next year the Brewers have Nelson, Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Guerra, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Houser competing for starting spots with Brown and Supak another year away. They could trade two of Anderson/Chacin/Guerra and get a decent prospect haul in return and still have seven guys competing with two more in AAA.

Say they traded Anderson and Guerra, the rotation could still look like Nelson/Chacin/Davies/Burnes/Woodruff with Houser as a swingman/long relief and have Peralta/Brown/Supak in AAA.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#24

Posted: August 14, 2018, 8:22 PM Post
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Brewers are well above 23rd....


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#25

Posted: August 14, 2018, 8:29 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
The lower levels of the minors are definitely barren for pitching

Strongly disagree.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#26

Posted: August 15, 2018, 9:48 AM Post
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molitor fan said:
Brewers are well above 23rd....


It will be an interesting offseason as the various sources release their farm rankings.

Bleacher Report had the Brewers at 19 post trade deadline. As players (like Freddy P) graduate from the system that ranking will be impacted.
Did anyone see where BA ranked the Brewer system last week?? I don't have insider access so I am unaware of their full update..


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Online  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#27

Posted: August 15, 2018, 9:52 AM Post
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Joseph probably has it about right at 23. Argument could be made it should be even lower with Peralta graduating and Burnes too by the end of the season. (Not sure how the various sources will handle Burnes.)


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#28

Posted: August 15, 2018, 10:23 AM Post
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BA has the Brewers at 22.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#29

Posted: August 15, 2018, 12:20 PM Post
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Remember, the have not only traded several high ranking prospects, they've had several graduate. And another (Burnes) will graduate by month's end.

Woodruff, Peralta, Taylor Williams, Burnes - that represents a big chunk of our upper level arms.

Add in the trades - Ortiz, Phillips, Medeiros, Carmona - and you've had a lot of talent leave. That's three top 100 guys (Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta) and a couple of other Top 10 organizational guys (Phillips, Ortiz) and a couple of Top 20 org guys (Carmona, Medeiros).

And let's not forget the Yelich deal. We lost some big prospects there.

Systems will go through this kind of thing every few years. We happened to graduate a lot of guys of late - and it dings our system. The main thing is to keep adding talent through the draft, which I think we have done. Lutz has the makings of a premiere prospect. And Zack Brown made huge strides this year, similar to jumps we saw from Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta the last couple of seasons. Perhaps someone else - like Braden Webb or Adrian Houser - makes that move next year.

I also think that - due to the more even playing ground teams have in this area - we'll start seeing more prospects from Latin America. Before, we were so outspent in developing players from Latin America - it was really a joke. But that's evening out, and I think we'll see some of these guys make some noise.

The key is hitting on some of our top picks. We can't have multiple years of failure after failure in the draft. That's what killed this club a few years back. We just didn't develop enough good players - and we missed on a lot of our top picks.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#30

Posted: August 15, 2018, 2:37 PM Post
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Have to remember re: the international guys that Stearns has only been around since late 2015, and didn't get his first international signing class until July of 2016. And many of those guys didn't start playing until last year. That's the Pablo Abreu/Francis Florentino/Ernesto Martinez/Antonio Pinero (sort of)/Michele Vassalotti/Jose Alberro/Brayan Salaya (amongst others) group. And the July 2017 class is arguably even better.

So you have to be careful in saying "the Brewers have been bad in Latin America for a lot of years now" - the Brewers have been operating quite differently in the international theater under Stearns but it'll take a number of years to bear that out.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#31

Posted: August 15, 2018, 6:32 PM Post
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I didn't factor in Burnes impending graduation into the #23 ranking, it included Burnes. Sure, Burnes will soon be off the list, but other teams will have prospects graduate in this timeframe as well.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#32

Posted: August 15, 2018, 7:46 PM Post
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Baseballamerica is not in my top 3 as far as prospect sources go...Longenhagen is way ahead of the crowd.....guessing 16 would be close to his Brewers ranking


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#33

Posted: August 15, 2018, 7:53 PM Post
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And That said:
LouisEly said:
The lower levels of the minors are definitely barren for pitching

Strongly disagree.

I don't see any on your list until #23 (Ashby), and only 15 of your top 66 are pitchers at A-ball or below with three of those you designated as relief pitchers (Bickford, Beckman, Andrews).

Who exactly are they?


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#34

Posted: August 15, 2018, 8:40 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
And That said:
LouisEly said:
The lower levels of the minors are definitely barren for pitching

Strongly disagree.

I don't see any on your list until #23 (Ashby), and only 15 of your top 66 are pitchers at A-ball or below with three of those you designated as relief pitchers (Bickford, Beckman, Andrews).

Who exactly are they?

Assuming your counting is right, like 23% of Brewers players with OFPs of 40 or higher are literally pitchers in A-ball or below. That’s a substantial subset. Not barren at all.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#35

Posted: August 15, 2018, 10:35 PM Post
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molitor fan said:
Baseballamerica is not in my top 3 as far as prospect sources go...Longenhagen is way ahead of the crowd.....guessing 16 would be close to his Brewers ranking


I'm not trying to suggest that Baseball America is gospel. I only knew they had released a mid-season update (like Bleacher Report). Thanks to And That for communicating the BA updated ranking of 22. I really like the work done by John Sickels. I don't feel he gets enough credit..

Personally I like to gather all the sources and average the results. I have been doing that for the past 4 or 5 off seasons.
Before the start of the 2018 season, the 11 sources I found had the Brewers at 14th overall w/ an average ranking of 14.273. Unfortunately some of those rankings were before the Yelich trade and some were after. The highest ranking given was by the Minor League Analyst Book (#7, before the deal) and the lowest was by Prospect Digest book (#22, released after the deal).

Time will tell where the Brewers end up after all the 2018-19 off season sources announce their thoughts...


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#36

Posted: August 16, 2018, 2:17 PM Post
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MadThinker88 said:
Before the start of the 2018 season, the 11 sources I found had the Brewers at 14th overall w/ an average ranking of 14.273. Unfortunately some of those rankings were before the Yelich trade and some were after. The highest ranking given was by the Minor League Analyst Book (#7, before the deal) and the lowest was by Prospect Digest book (#22, released after the deal).

Time will tell where the Brewers end up after all the 2018-19 off season sources announce their thoughts...


I appreciate you taking the time to compile these and I'd be interested in the average rankings going forward. Please share the composite the next time you do this.


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Online  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#37

Posted: August 16, 2018, 3:23 PM Post
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FanGraphs updated their sortable prospect board (viewable under the Leaders tab) after the trade deadline. Every prospect with a Future Value of 35+ or greater is listed.

I went through each team and summed up the FV of all prospects. For players with a + grade I gave them an extra 2 points.

You'll see the results closely align with the total prospects in each system so this quick & dirty methodology is more a measure of overall depth & likely underestimates teams with more premium prospects. Obviously no one would ever trade Vlad Jr (70 FV) for two or even ten 35+ FV guys, as an example.

Here's the results....

Team (total prospects listed) FV Sum Total

01. SDP (50) 2202
02. TBR (49) 2150
03. MIN (45) 1895
04. NYY (39) 1614
05. TOR (37) 1591
06. CLE (38) 1575
07. BAL (38) 1571
08. TEX (37) 1551
09. HOU (37) 1544
10. KCR (37) 1505
11. ATL (34) 1503
12. CIN (35) 1502
13. LAD (35) 1470
14. MIA (34) 1439
15. PHI (34) 1434
16. OAK (32) 1375
17. CHC (33) 1364
18. DET (31) 1359
19. STL (32) 1336
20. CHW (29) 1323
21. MIL (30) 1260
22. SFG (30) 1235
23. NYM (29) 1230
24. PIT (28) 1205
25. ARI (29) 1193
26. COL (30) 1160
27. LAA (26) 1112
28. BOS (25) 1024
29. SEA (22) 889
30. WAS (19) 831


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#38

Posted: August 16, 2018, 4:24 PM Post
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And That said:
Assuming your counting is right, like 23% of Brewers players with OFPs of 40 or higher are literally pitchers in A-ball or below. That’s a substantial subset. Not barren at all.

A-ball and lower (A+, A, Helena, Arizona, DSL) makes up ~75% of all minor league headcount; eliminating the DSL brings it down to ~70%. Pitchers are about half of a team's roster, so if my math is right it should be ~35% of all prospects with OFPs >40 if distributed evenly. Thus the math supports that pitching at the lower levels is light at best from a quantity standpoint; from a quality standpoint, that none are higher than #20 in the poll (Lemons) suggests a lack of quality as well.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#39

Posted: August 16, 2018, 5:00 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
FanGraphs updated their sortable prospect board (viewable under the Leaders tab) after the trade deadline. Every prospect with a Future Value of 35+ or greater is listed.

I went through each team and summed up the FV of all prospects. For players with a + grade I gave them an extra 2 points.

You'll see the results closely align with the total prospects in each system so this quick & dirty methodology is more a measure of overall depth & likely underestimates teams with more premium prospects. Obviously no one would ever trade Vlad Jr (70 FV) for two or even ten 35+ FV guys, as an example.

Here's the results....

Team (total prospects listed) FV Sum Total

01. SDP (50) 2202
02. TBR (49) 2150
03. MIN (45) 1895
04. NYY (39) 1614
05. TOR (37) 1591
06. CLE (38) 1575
07. BAL (38) 1571
08. TEX (37) 1551
09. HOU (37) 1544
10. KCR (37) 1505
11. ATL (34) 1503
12. CIN (35) 1502
13. LAD (35) 1470
14. MIA (34) 1439
15. PHI (34) 1434
16. OAK (32) 1375
17. CHC (33) 1364
18. DET (31) 1359
19. STL (32) 1336
20. CHW (29) 1323
21. MIL (30) 1260
22. SFG (30) 1235
23. NYM (29) 1230
24. PIT (28) 1205
25. ARI (29) 1193
26. COL (30) 1160
27. LAA (26) 1112
28. BOS (25) 1024
29. SEA (22) 889
30. WAS (19) 831


Thank you!

A little disheartening to see the Cubs score higher. I've been under the impression that even after thinning our crop this past year that the Brewers were still well ahead of the Cubs. This, much like MadThinker88's composite rankings, will be interesting to follow going forward.


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Offline  Re: BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition
#40

Posted: August 16, 2018, 5:28 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
And That said:
Assuming your counting is right, like 23% of Brewers players with OFPs of 40 or higher are literally pitchers in A-ball or below. That’s a substantial subset. Not barren at all.

A-ball and lower (A+, A, Helena, Arizona, DSL) makes up ~75% of all minor league headcount; eliminating the DSL brings it down to ~70%. Pitchers are about half of a team's roster, so if my math is right it should be ~35% of all prospects with OFPs >40 if distributed evenly. Thus the math supports that pitching at the lower levels is light at best from a quantity standpoint; from a quality standpoint, that none are higher than #20 in the poll (Lemons) suggests a lack of quality as well.

In other words, not barren.

You’d also expect there to be disproportionately more players higher up in the minor leagues with greater probabilities of being major leaguers. 20/25 OFP players almost by definition couldn’t be in AAA, for instance. Yet there are plenty of them in the lower minors.

The Brewers are lacking in current high-end talent, sure, but there are plenty of interesting pitchers with upside in the low minors. They are far from a barren wasteland of talent.


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