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2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations

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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: February 21, 2019, 6:49 PM Post
Posts: 4269
Humans Need Water said:
wallus said:
KeithStone53151 said:
It actually is up right now, I think it just popped up.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=mil


Is it terrible to think we have a decent top 6?

We have 6 Top 100 caliber prospects whether they have a Top 100 in front of their name or not. They're good


I'd take the current top 10 prospects in the system at this stage in their development over recent top 10 brewer prospect lists that had their system "ranked" higher a few years ago.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: February 22, 2019, 12:20 AM Post
Posts: 399
It is interesting the variety of opinion on Nottingham's defense. MLB Pipeline seems to indicate he can definitely stay at catcher, while Fangraphs doesn't have him in the top 32 and doesn't seem to think he's close to good enough yet behind the plate. I also think 16 seems low for him given the writeup.

I wonder if some of the optimism surrounding the system despite the ranking involves the fact that the Brewers seem to have had more luck developing pitchers recently than in years past so the likelihood of success with some of the guys nationally considered fringier seems greater.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: February 22, 2019, 7:54 AM Post
Posts: 913
I don't know if MLB Pipeline use the overall 20-80 scale somwhat differently to Fangraphs/BPro, or if they're just more generous overall, or if they simply like the Brewers farm a lot more. Regardless it's interesting to see that they have 9 overall 50s, while FG has 3 and and BPro have 3-4 too (They give a value for both likely best-case and a more conservative likely outcome). At least the way Fangraphs define their FV, 50 is a player who averages ~2 WAR per year over their years of team control. By that definition, having 9 players whose mean or most likely outcome is a 2 WAR player is very good.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: February 22, 2019, 8:49 AM Post
Posts: 554
Location: Milwaukee
CheeseheadInQC said:
It is interesting the variety of opinion on Nottingham's defense. MLB Pipeline seems to indicate he can definitely stay at catcher, while Fangraphs doesn't have him in the top 32 and doesn't seem to think he's close to good enough yet behind the plate. I also think 16 seems low for him given the writeup.

I wonder if some of the optimism surrounding the system despite the ranking involves the fact that the Brewers seem to have had more luck developing pitchers recently than in years past so the likelihood of success with some of the guys nationally considered fringier seems greater.

Agree. When you read Nottingham's write-up, independent of his 20/80 grades and system ranking, you'd absolutely think he's in the top 10 in the system and a starting catcher once ready. He's had a wrc+ below 103 *once* in his career between A-AAA. He was 3yrs young for level in AA and that was the year they first broke him down (literally) defensively to start rebuilding him. And his wrc+ was 87 (not good but not horrific given his position and age/level). The Brewers and their AA/AAA managers seem to believe he's definitely a MLB starting catcher based on comments they've made in the past.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: February 22, 2019, 8:55 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
I don't think the #26 ranking is out of line at all. Last time I did a complete run-through was early August, during the 10 days following the trade deadline, and I had rated them at #23. Burnes has graduated since then but I wouldn't assume that automatically drops the Brewers because other teams had players that graduated too (and lots of trade activity since then). I'll probably do another run-through after getting the BA Handbook. Personally, I'd be surprised if I had the Brewers in the bottom five but would be even more surprised if I had them outside of the bottom 10.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: February 22, 2019, 11:19 AM Post
Posts: 4585
Location: New Berlin, WI
Based on mlbpipeline's notes, does anyone else get the sense that Grisham could be alot better if he received better instruction? Why in the world are they letting him set up that way? I feel like Grisham is going to get poached at some point by the Cardinals or Dodgers and quickly be "fixed" and become the 300 MLB hitter that he was expected to be on draft day.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: February 22, 2019, 1:22 PM Post
Posts: 4396
KeithStone53151 said:
Based on mlbpipeline's notes, does anyone else get the sense that Grisham could be alot better if he received better instruction? Why in the world are they letting him set up that way? I feel like Grisham is going to get poached at some point by the Cardinals or Dodgers and quickly be "fixed" and become the 300 MLB hitter that he was expected to be on draft day.


They need to make him study LoCain's at-bats. That is who Grisham should be trying to emulate.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: March 14, 2019, 1:37 PM Post
Posts: 4585
Location: New Berlin, WI
On Braden Webb. I've personally been super high on him since he was drafted and think he might be the best pitcher in the system. I know that's a minority opinion. I fully expect him to be this years version of Woodruff/Burnes by June or July.

https://twitter.com/JasonPennini/status ... 5169343488


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: March 14, 2019, 3:10 PM Post
Posts: 1512
KeithStone53151 said:
On Braden Webb. I've personally been super high on him since he was drafted and think he might be the best pitcher in the system. I know that's a minority opinion. I fully expect him to be this years version of Woodruff/Burnes by June or July.

https://twitter.com/JasonPennini/status ... 5169343488


I'd agree with you a lot more if Z. Brown wasn't in the system.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: March 14, 2019, 3:26 PM Post
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Finally picked up Baseball HQ's minor league annual, and they have the Brewers' organization 20th out of 30. They give the team a B- for hitting, a C- for pitching, a B- for top-end talent, a C for depth, and a C overall. I think that severely undersells the pitching/depth, but 20th is a lot closer to where the minor league system is at than 27th or whatever, IMO.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: March 14, 2019, 4:08 PM Post
Posts: 2001
wallus said:
KeithStone53151 said:
On Braden Webb. I've personally been super high on him since he was drafted and think he might be the best pitcher in the system. I know that's a minority opinion. I fully expect him to be this years version of Woodruff/Burnes by June or July.

https://twitter.com/JasonPennini/status ... 5169343488


I'd agree with you a lot more if Z. Brown wasn't in the system.


Brown in milw. Some time after S-2, Webb guessing sept. If your right and it’s june/July means he crushing it or injuries. Hope the former.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: March 14, 2019, 4:15 PM Post
Posts: 2001
And That said:
Finally picked up Baseball HQ's minor league annual, and they have the Brewers' organization 20th out of 30. They give the team a B- for hitting, a C- for pitching, a B- for top-end talent, a C for depth, and a C overall. I think that severely undersells the pitching/depth, but 20th is a lot closer to where the minor league system is at than 27th or whatever, IMO.


You sir know much more about brewers prospects than any publication. It’s all about time spent studying the system. There time spread out among 30 teams, yours focused on one. Trust your judgement over any of there’s.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: March 14, 2019, 9:41 PM Post
Posts: 1062
Location: Ohio
And That said:
Finally picked up Baseball HQ's minor league annual, and they have the Brewers' organization 20th out of 30. They give the team a B- for hitting, a C- for pitching, a B- for top-end talent, a C for depth, and a C overall. I think that severely undersells the pitching/depth, but 20th is a lot closer to where the minor league system is at than 27th or whatever, IMO.


Are you referring to the Minor League Baseball Analyst?? I'm waiting for my copy to arrive and should have it late next week.

Of the 9 sites/ sources (for farm system rankings) I have seen so far, only 2 have the Brewers above #22. Heck the only site so far that put the Crew above #20 is also the ONLY site that didn't put the Padres system at #1 (giving the nod to the ChiSox). While I wish some of these sources spent more time going in depth on the Brewers and other teams, we have to realize their time spent looking at other systems helps them to compare/ contrast the strengths and weaknesses of those other systems.

While we may feel the Brewer system has greater talent or depth in certain areas, compared to the other systems (especially against some others in the NL Central) the Brewer system might be weaker and thinner then we want to believe.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: March 15, 2019, 9:54 AM Post
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Been super high on Webb as well and throwing out Sheets Lite comments since drafted. His whole career is linked to if he can throw strikes consistently. If he can, he could special!


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: March 15, 2019, 1:37 PM Post
Posts: 4396
wallus said:
KeithStone53151 said:
On Braden Webb. I've personally been super high on him since he was drafted and think he might be the best pitcher in the system. I know that's a minority opinion. I fully expect him to be this years version of Woodruff/Burnes by June or July.

https://twitter.com/JasonPennini/status ... 5169343488


I'd agree with you a lot more if Z. Brown wasn't in the system.


Roegner
Ashby
Z. Brown
Sunitsch
Supak
Andrews
Webb


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: May 30, 2019, 12:31 PM Post
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FanGraphs published their final pre-draft farm system rankings & it looks like they have the Brewers at #17...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pre-draft-f ... -rankings/


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: May 30, 2019, 1:11 PM Post
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To be fair, most of that is Hiura. You take Hiura out and they're down to about 27th.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: June 05, 2019, 8:08 AM Post
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New BA Top 100 list sees Hiura at 17 and drumroll...

Brice Turang at 100.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... prospects/


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: June 05, 2019, 9:26 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Bottom five system after Hiura graduates. I was trying to put together a Sam Dyson + Tony Watson for prospects deal in the proposal forum. Normally this would include a couple solid "role-player" prospects. But the Brewers don't have very many attractive guys in that tier, and the tier above that "top 10 organizational prospects" is full of guys who have either just become "blah" or underperformed this year (Dubon, Brown, Erceg). If I were the Giants, I may have to insist on two of Ashby, Supak, Rasmussen, Feliciano just because most of the other targets are just not that interesting. And if Rasmussen is one of the two, I'd probably want a little insurance considering his injury history, and would insist a third fringy piece be thrown into the deal. Really thought Stokes looked like a good fit a month ago, but that slash line he currently possesses makes him near worthless on the trade market. And I am only estimating Sam Dyson's surplus value at 4.17 million, and Tony Watson's surplus value at 4.37 million. Getting pretty high up on the Brewer listing of prospects when only talking about trading for roughly 8.5 million in surplus value.


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Online  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: June 05, 2019, 5:20 PM Post
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And That said:
New BA Top 100 list sees Hiura at 17 and drumroll...

Brice Turang at 100.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... prospects/

Someone must have graduated off the list today because Hiura is now up to #16 and Turang listed at #99. Moving on up!


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