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2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations

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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#41

Posted: December 04, 2018, 9:12 AM Post
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Reds list up today over at FanGraphs. Looks like they have the best farm in the division, but they probably should since they've been so bad for so long...

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-33- ... nati-reds/

This bit from the system summary seemed relevant with DJ's recent hiring...

We always say that having too much talent is never a problem, but too much talent is decidedly not the problem on the pitching side. Tony Santillan, Vladimir Gutierrez, and some middle relief types should all go from this list to getting big league looks at some point this year, and Hunter Greene could be the frontline guy they need long-term, but the hurlers on this list aren’t answering short-term questions at the big league level. Once quality depth presents itself on the major league pitching staff, the lineup will probably be good enough to compete, so pitching remains the challenge going forward for Cincinnati.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#42

Posted: December 04, 2018, 2:12 PM Post
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SoCalBrewfan said:
I honestly think the system is at a low ebb, and a bottom ten rating would be deserved. It's not surprising; we've graduated some nice pitchers and traded away 11 minor leaguers to boost the major league roster last summer. Still, Hiura is the only guy I'd bet actual dollars on being a major league regular at this point. That's not disastrous given that we have good long term assets in place across much of the major league roster, and guys on the brink at some of the places where the major league team has holes (e.g., Dubon, Hiura, Nottingham). It does mean there are fewer bullets for upcoming trades, and it would be wise (in my opinion) to focus on free agency to add pieces this year.

I get that we can point to individuals who are talented and could take steps forward. My sense in following the Brewers and other teams for years is that there are always guys in every system who are on the rise but as yet underrated. We just know who they are in our system because we obsess over their every move. I don't honestly believe that the Brewers have more such players than most other teams, though I would of course be happy to be proven wrong. I like a number of guys from their last draft or three, and it will be interesting to see whether, or to what extent, the newfound interest in Latin America pays dividends, but for now I think the cupboard is fairly bare.


I'd disagree to an extent:
I see Stokes as a Brady Clark with more pop - and he will be at AAA. Corey Ray is a left-handed Keon Broxton at worst. Lucas Erceg is also close, and there are Dubon, Hager, and Weston Wilson.

Supak, Brown, and Olczak are all going to be very good, I think.

It's the lower levels where I see some folks emerging. Ryan Aguilar, Jesus Chirinos, David Fry, Cooper Hummel, Tristan Lutz, Bryce Turang, Clayton Andrews, Victor Vargas, Scott Sunitsch, Cameron Roegener, and Aaron Ashby all look like they could be in the next wave or two of major league players.

Some other folks take a while to develop - I think we may need the patience shown for Tyrone Taylor with Trent Grisham, for instance. Jorge Ortega and QTC are both coming off injuries.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#43

Posted: December 08, 2018, 9:25 PM Post
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Final NL Central list is up at FanGraphs for the Cubs. Easily the worst farm in the division, though it sounds like Alzolay could possibly make an impact this year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-31- ... cago-cubs/

Top Ten Prospects in the Central for me would probably be...

01. Senzel (CIN)
02. Hiura (MIL)
03. Reyes (STL)
04. Greene (CIN)
05. Trammell (CIN)
06. Hayes (PIT)
07. Keller (PIT)
08. Knizner (STL)
09. Ray (MIL)
10. Stokes (MIL)


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#44

Posted: December 08, 2018, 11:15 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
Final NL Central list is up at FanGraphs for the Cubs. Easily the worst farm in the division, though it sounds like Alzolay could possibly make an impact this year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-31- ... cago-cubs/

Top Ten Prospects in the Central for me would probably be...

01. Senzel (CIN)
02. Hiura (MIL)
03. Reyes (STL)
04. Greene (CIN)
05. Trammell (CIN)
06. Hayes (PIT)
07. Keller (PIT)
08. Knizner (STL)
09. Ray (MIL)
10. Stokes (MIL)


I don't get too invested in the MLB Draft because I don't know the guys that well. But back in 2106 I really liked Taylor Trammell. I was hoping he'd drop to us at #46. He went to the Reds at #35.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#45

Posted: December 09, 2018, 11:10 AM Post
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Wonder how expendible Stokes & Ray make each other? Both have pretty similar profiles with Ray being the bigger name with precieved higher ceiling. Scouts tend to love Stokes more than fans. Brewers are clearly very high on him. I don’t think both have place here in the future really.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#46

Posted: December 09, 2018, 8:23 PM Post
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YoungGeezy1 said:
Wonder how expendible Stokes & Ray make each other? Both have pretty similar profiles with Ray being the bigger name with precieved higher ceiling. Scouts tend to love Stokes more than fans. Brewers are clearly very high on him. I don’t think both have place here in the future really.


I disagree. I think they both have a future in Milwaukee as the replacements for Thames, Braun, Santana, and Broxton.

Ideally, the Crew would work Ray in all three outfield spots and first base, and use Stokes in all three OF spots as well.

Ray and Stokes will spend most of 2019 in San Antonio. Braun's deal ends after 2020, when Broxton and Santana will both be pretty expensive in arby - and will have established enough value to land some lottery ticket-type prospects in Adam Lind-esque deals.

The big question is if one of them can seize a starting spot, and if the other can be effective as a 4th OF or an OF/1B.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#47

Posted: December 09, 2018, 9:35 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
YoungGeezy1 said:
Wonder how expendible Stokes & Ray make each other? Both have pretty similar profiles with Ray being the bigger name with precieved higher ceiling. Scouts tend to love Stokes more than fans. Brewers are clearly very high on him. I don’t think both have place here in the future really.


I disagree. I think they both have a future in Milwaukee as the replacements for Thames, Braun, Santana, and Broxton.

Ideally, the Crew would work Ray in all three outfield spots and first base, and use Stokes in all three OF spots as well.

Ray and Stokes will spend most of 2019 in San Antonio. Braun's deal ends after 2020, when Broxton and Santana will both be pretty expensive in arby - and will have established enough value to land some lottery ticket-type prospects in Adam Lind-esque deals.

The big question is if one of them can seize a starting spot, and if the other can be effective as a 4th OF or an OF/1B.


I don’t think either can be or would ever be tried at 1B. They are pretty strictly OFs but both can play all 3. I mean Stokes is 5’8 and from perfect game never even worked infield at showcases (unlike many who started off as SS’s). Ray also is not very big & with his athletic ability don’t see 1b. Erceg or Gatewood make much more sense as 4 corner players (1b 3b LF RF).

Blows my mind when people act like you can just throw anyone at 1b. Doesn’t work like that.

Still high on Tyrone Taylor & hope he gets a look this season to see what he has. Profiles like a real solid 4th OF.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#48

Posted: December 18, 2018, 10:03 AM Post
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Marlins list up at FanGraphs today with Diaz & Harrison headlining at 50 FV plus familiar names like Garrett Cooper & Jordan Yamamoto a little farther down...

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32- ... i-marlins/


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#49

Posted: December 18, 2018, 10:16 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
Marlins list up at FanGraphs today with Diaz & Harrison headlining at 50 FV plus familiar names like Garrett Cooper & Jordan Yamamoto a little farther down...

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32- ... i-marlins/


Well, for all the talk that the Brewers "fleeced" the Marlins on the Yelich deal, that is pretty telling, with those guys representing #1, #2, #21 and a young OF in Brinson slated to be their starting CF. Of the two prospects they got in the Stanton deal, Guzman is #9 and Devers is #8, while they also picked up Castro's big contract. For Ozuna, they got Alcantera (#3), Sierra (unranked), Gallen (#11) and Castano (unranked).

The next time some doofus says that the Marlins aren't going to trade with the Brewers, or that the Brewers picked up Brinson at a bargain basement price, this needs to be pointed to. Brinson could very well still break out into a Yelich-lite type player, and Diaz and Harrison are both top-flight prospects, even with down years. And Yamamoto is no slouch either.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#50

Posted: December 18, 2018, 6:34 PM Post
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If Garrett Cooper is #17 I wouldn't say that they have a lot of prospect talent. Rankings are simply that; they sometimes only tell you who the tallest midget is.

And if Yamamoto is behind Cooper at #21 I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that list.

Yamamoto was hurt part of last year, but when he came back he put up some very good numbers (K/9, K/BB, HR/9, FIP, xFIP).


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#51

Posted: December 18, 2018, 6:44 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
If Garrett Cooper is #17 I wouldn't say that they have a lot of prospect talent. Rankings are simply that; they sometimes only tell you who the tallest midget is.

And if Yamamoto is behind Cooper at #21 I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that list.

Yamamoto was hurt part of last year, but when he came back he put up some very good numbers (K/9, K/BB, HR/9, FIP, xFIP).


I agree with basically all of this, but especially the last part. Not sure how anyone could rank cooper over yamamoto


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#52

Posted: December 18, 2018, 7:35 PM Post
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Both Cooper & Yamamoto have identical Future Values of 40, same as everyone from 13 to 25 on the Marlins list. All the prospects within that range are ultimately "ranked" the same.

Unless you're arguing Yamamoto should be up in the 6-10 range with the other 45 FVs.

I think the 40 FVs are accurate for both. A 40 FV hitter is a bench player & Cooper looks like at best the short half of a platoon.

A 40 FV pitcher is a backend starter/low leverage reliever which seems about right for Jordan with his below average velocity likely limiting his ultimate upside.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#53

Posted: December 20, 2018, 5:00 AM Post
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Tom Haudricourt's Baseball America chat transcript


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#54

Posted: December 20, 2018, 8:21 AM Post
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https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/12/20 ... spect-list

Interesting top 10 list from Baseball America.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#55

Posted: December 20, 2018, 9:04 AM Post
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In the chat Haudricourt mentions We at Baseball America use MLB rookie eligibility as the guideline for prospect status but then just ignores the 45 day rule on Burnes.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#56

Posted: December 20, 2018, 10:04 AM Post
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Outlander said:
In the chat Haudricourt mentions We at Baseball America use MLB rookie eligibility as the guideline for prospect status but then just ignores the 45 day rule on Burnes.


lol I noticed that too. Cot's has Burnes at 86 days of service time. So even after taking out September, he's clearly over.


Baseball America is usually a little more conservative with their lists ranking guys close to the majors high even if their ceiling is lower so it doesn't surprise me that they have Nottingham in the top ten.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#57

Posted: December 20, 2018, 12:34 PM Post
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Mass Haas said:


I assumed the one questioner was asking about the Zach Brown (Band) and not Daniel Brown (Davinci Code).


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#58

Posted: December 21, 2018, 3:25 PM Post
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And That said:
sveumrules said:
& another article using those estimates to rank the farm systems of the 30 clubs (Brewers slotted in at 22) as the Hot Stove gets ready to hopefully heat up...

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-20 ... -rankings/

One thing I'll note about this, if you buy into this valuation: while the Brewers are 22nd overall, have 3.1x more value than the worst farm system, and the best farm system has 3.4x more value than the Brewers. They seem to be quite middle-ish.

And I will go to war over the Brewers' depth being undervalued.




And I'll be the guy right next to you that William Wallace hits in the head with a rock in Braveheart.

We have a flashy young near can't miss star...but beyond that we don't have those impressive complimentary pieces that a good farm system is supposed to have...according to the rankings. We could if Tiruang has a really good first year, but it seems like our pitchers start to get respect a bit late. Ray needs to really perform again this year as well as improve his BA and cut down on the K's if he's going to regain the favor he once had. Plus we have some really intriguing young LA players that could start to make their mark on a full season squad next year.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#59

Posted: January 22, 2019, 12:50 PM Post
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As it relates to the Brewers at this point "No Hay Banda", but for those who like to keep tabs on former Brewers prospects it looks like Anthony checks in at #18 on FanGraphs evaluation of the stacked Tampa Bay system...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-54-pros ... -bay-rays/


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#60

Posted: January 22, 2019, 2:46 PM Post
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For all the angst about trading away the guy as part of the package for Parra, Banda will be lucky to see the big leagues for an extended period before he turns 26 - isn't he recovering from TJ surgery completed this past June that probably has him out all of next year? Had the Brewers kept him, Banda probably wouldn't have developed fast enough to even get on a 40 man roster before they would have traded him or watched him get Rule 5'd.

Parra then netted Zach Davies, whom at this point Banda will probably be fortunate to have a MLB career remotely similar to.


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