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2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations

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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#61

Posted: January 22, 2019, 3:14 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
Fear The Chorizo said:
For all the angst about trading away the guy as part of the package for Parra, Banda will be lucky to see the big leagues for an extended period before he turns 26 - isn't he recovering from TJ surgery completed this past June that probably has him out all of next year? Had the Brewers kept him, Banda probably wouldn't have developed fast enough to even get on a 40 man roster before they would have traded him or watched him get Rule 5'd.

Parra then netted Zach Davies, whom at this point Banda will probably be fortunate to have a MLB career remotely similar to.


That's fair, but Banda's value was high not all that long ago and may have been traded at peak by the Dbacks for Souza. That's certainly a heck of a lot more value than basically being a throw-in pieces in trade for an outfielder. Looking back, that trade ended up pretty terribly for the Brewers...with Haniger being an all-star and Banda being TJ away from becoming an impact arm at the MLB level...and he still easily could reach that level.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#62

Posted: January 22, 2019, 7:30 PM Post
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Baseball America will reportedly have 2 Brewers in their top 100 prospects. Since they still consider Corbin Burnes a prospect, it will be him and Hiura. Meaning Corey Ray did not make the BA Top 100.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#63

Posted: January 22, 2019, 7:47 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Baseball America will reportedly have 2 Brewers in their top 100 prospects. Since they still consider Corbin Burnes a prospect, it will be him and Hiura. Meaning Corey Ray did not make the BA Top 100.


If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.


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Online  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#64

Posted: January 22, 2019, 7:55 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
For all the angst about trading away the guy as part of the package for Parra, Banda will be lucky to see the big leagues for an extended period before he turns 26 - isn't he recovering from TJ surgery completed this past June that probably has him out all of next year? Had the Brewers kept him, Banda probably wouldn't have developed fast enough to even get on a 40 man roster before they would have traded him or watched him get Rule 5'd.

Parra then netted Zach Davies, whom at this point Banda will probably be fortunate to have a MLB career remotely similar to.


That's fair, but Banda's value was high not all that long ago and may have been traded at peak by the Dbacks for Souza. That's certainly a heck of a lot more value than basically being a throw-in pieces in trade for an outfielder. Looking back, that trade ended up pretty terribly for the Brewers...with Haniger being an all-star and Banda being TJ away from becoming an impact arm at the MLB level...and he still easily could reach that level.

Given the benefit of hindsight that is still probably a trade the Brewers wouldn’t make again. Obviously it can be argued his development track wouldn’t have been quite the same with the Brewers, but Mitch Haniger has gone on to become arguably one of the 50 most valuable players in MLB.


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Online  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#65

Posted: January 22, 2019, 8:42 PM Post
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Would love to have the current version of Haniger, but it took getting traded then demoted down to A+ by his new organization before he started to make the changes that allowed him to thrive.

Maybe he makes the same changes had he not been dealt/demoted & instead stagnated in our system for another year or two, maybe not. Either way, good on him for doing so & fulfilling his promise.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#66

Posted: January 22, 2019, 9:00 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
adambr2 said:
Baseball America will reportedly have 2 Brewers in their top 100 prospects. Since they still consider Corbin Burnes a prospect, it will be him and Hiura. Meaning Corey Ray did not make the BA Top 100.


If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.


Give me a break.

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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#67

Posted: January 22, 2019, 10:37 PM Post
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Top 25 would be big reach but after year he had in AA & being top 5 pick.... he’d be top 75 if not top 50. A top 5 pick bouncing back and nearly having 30/30 season.... Dont know how he’d not be on list. Can’t tell me there are 100 other players with his explosive tools and ceiling. He was hurt and aggressively placed. Seems little unfair to knock him that extremely for that


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#68

Posted: January 22, 2019, 11:05 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.


I doubt it. There are legitimate concerns with Ray regarding K rate and the track record of early college draft picks who have had the kind of season that Ray did in 2017 at any point before reaching the majors is really poor. I still like him as a prospect, but I don't think he's top 25 no matter where he is.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#69

Posted: January 23, 2019, 6:19 AM Post
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Baseball Prospectus' preseason top 101 ranking is out: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... e-top-101/

Keston Hiura at #6 is the only Brewer on the list.

Their Brewers prospect rankings should be out soon too I think.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#70

Posted: January 23, 2019, 6:58 AM Post
Posts: 425
I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#71

Posted: January 23, 2019, 7:34 AM Post
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trwi7 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
adambr2 said:
Baseball America will reportedly have 2 Brewers in their top 100 prospects. Since they still consider Corbin Burnes a prospect, it will be him and Hiura. Meaning Corey Ray did not make the BA Top 100.


If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.


Give me a break.


For a guy who seemingly loves prospects, you sure do seem to not like some of them, but thanks for the condescension. I'd love for someone to explain to me what makes Estevan Florial such a higher rated prospect than Corey Ray. It certainly isn't numbers or K rate.

Perhaps saying that he'd be Top 25 is a bit strong, but I don't think anyone would argue that if he were in the Yankees system, he'd no doubt be a Top 100 prospect. He made a huge jump after a disappointing 2017. He put up a 30-30 season and was his league's player of the year and the team's minor league player of the year. Yeah, he has his warts, but all prospects outside maybe the top 10 guys do.


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Online  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#72

Posted: January 23, 2019, 7:58 AM Post
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foamboy1 said:
I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?


A good defensive shortstop with little power is probably Turang's floor. As you said, MLB is littered with guys like that so it is a pretty high floor. If he can develop his hit/power tools at all you have an All Star caliber player. High floor, high ceiling = good prospect.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#73

Posted: January 23, 2019, 8:26 AM Post
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foamboy1 said:
I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?


About 1 year ago he was still in the conversation for going 1st overall in last June's draft. He profiles as yelich did at the plate without as much power, and he will be a mlb ss. I think he is underrated, actually.

That is some serious helium for Hiura at no. 6, can't wait to lock up all the threads about 2b options once he gets to milwaukee!

1 thing to remember about Ray's and other AA prospects numbers from 2018 - the southern league is full of pitcher friendly parks and Biloxi might be one of the most pitcher friendly. The Shucks '145 team HR is the most in the southern league since at least 2005. I expect Ray to remind more of us why he was a top 5 pick this year in San Antonio


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#74

Posted: January 23, 2019, 10:19 AM Post
Posts: 4391
Fear The Chorizo said:
foamboy1 said:
I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?


About 1 year ago he was still in the conversation for going 1st overall in last June's draft. He profiles as yelich did at the plate without as much power, and he will be a mlb ss. I think he is underrated, actually.

That is some serious helium for Hiura at no. 6, can't wait to lock up all the threads about 2b options once he gets to milwaukee!

1 thing to remember about Ray's and other AA prospects numbers from 2018 - the southern league is full of pitcher friendly parks and Biloxi might be one of the most pitcher friendly. The Shucks '145 team HR is the most in the southern league since at least 2005. I expect Ray to remind more of us why he was a top 5 pick this year in San Antonio


My take on Turang: A young Paul Molitor - the one who had speed, good OBP skills, had the ability to hit doubles and triples, and could hit for average.

Ray, Erceg, Gatewood, and Stokes could very well vault high up. Erceg's worried me - started off well, but since then... meh.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#75

Posted: January 23, 2019, 11:36 AM Post
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foamboy1 said:
I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?


MLB is also littered with guys who developed their power tool later on. Far too early to write off his power.


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Online  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#76

Posted: January 23, 2019, 11:40 AM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
foamboy1 said:
I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?


MLB is also littered with guys who developed their power tool later on. Far too early to write off his power.

From a scouting perspective, it's not that people are writing off his power, it's that his frame is not the kind that is typically conducive to developing power. Which is not to say he can't, just that it's unlikely he'll develop anything above a fringe-average power stroke. With below-average power the most likely outcome.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#77

Posted: January 23, 2019, 12:00 PM Post
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I’ve been saying it since he was drafted that he in my eyes is a young Trae Turner. That is not a bad thing. You can be a really good baseball player without hitting 20+ HRs a season. I expect Turang will average 10-15 a season & with other tools, that’s more than enough. How often do you see kids get drafted out of high school & play way he did. His walk to k % was outstanding & hit really well outside of power. 16% BB & only about at 15% K rate is not too bad at all.

I also think he is underrated. Power comes later to a lot of young lanky & stringy SSs. Let’s not freak out that a skinny 18 year old will never hit for power because he didn’t right away. Give him time to develop body & let coaches work with him on his swing to get most out of it.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#78

Posted: January 23, 2019, 12:04 PM Post
Posts: 510
Interesting to see BP's list this year. Last year Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, Phillips, Hiura, and Burnes were all rated in their top 101

One year later Brinson had a pretty disappointing debut. Diaz and Harrison have fallen out of their top 101. Phillips was traded for a rental and his MLB role is 4th OF/second division starter/platoon starter.

The two guys they kept were Hiura who BP has at #6 and Burnes who had a very impressive MLB debut. (Baseball america has Burnes around 50 on their top 100 list)


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#79

Posted: January 23, 2019, 12:24 PM Post
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They have Yamamoto in their feature of guys who they predict will enter the list next year.

And from a chat that's currently ongoing:

Ryan (Milwaukee): I assume you guys didn't consider Burnes a prospect anymore due to days in the majors, and not because he's fallen out?

Jeffrey Paternostro: Correct. I am guessing he'd be like in the James/Sheffield/Soroka/Pearson area.


FWIW those guys are ranked 46, 50, 53, 54. So if he had slightly fewer days in the majors, that's where Burnes would be. N


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#80

Posted: January 23, 2019, 3:09 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
For a guy who seemingly loves prospects, you sure do seem to not like some of them, but thanks for the condescension. I'd love for someone to explain to me what makes Estevan Florial such a higher rated prospect than Corey Ray. It certainly isn't numbers or K rate.


I do. That doesn't mean I don't recognize flaws when I see them. A .240 average, .320 OBP and 30% K rate from a 23 year old prospect with that being by far his best season isn't worthy of a top 100 spot as I said before and you strongly disagreed with.

As far as Florial, he was probably on the list in 2018 because he had just hit a combined .298/.372/.479 as a 19 year old between A and A+ in 2017 while also holding his own in the Fall League and probably having tools that made it look like he could be an above average starter or star if/when he got to the majors. But your choosing of Florial is weird because he had a terrible 2018 and is no longer on the top 100 of either Baseball America and dropped around 40 spots in Baseball Prospectus. But I guess they're still hugely pro Yankee what with the zero top 100 prospects on Baseball America and two in Baseball Prospectus.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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