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2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations

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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#81

Posted: January 23, 2019, 3:35 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.

That sounds like a bit of hyperbole to me... Like when I post that Orlando Arcia would have the same stats if he went up to the plate blindfolded...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#82

Posted: January 24, 2019, 7:46 AM Post
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YoungGeezy1 said:
Top 25 would be big reach but after year he had in AA & being top 5 pick.... he’d be top 75 if not top 50. A top 5 pick bouncing back and nearly having 30/30 season.... Dont know how he’d not be on list. Can’t tell me there are 100 other players with his explosive tools and ceiling. He was hurt and aggressively placed. Seems little unfair to knock him that extremely for that


The only thing I can figure is that they feel his progression in 2018 was a fluke. Hopefully he continues to build on it in San Antonio this year, along with cleaning up his K issues and maybe getting that average and OBP up a bit.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#83

Posted: January 24, 2019, 8:09 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
YoungGeezy1 said:
Top 25 would be big reach but after year he had in AA & being top 5 pick.... he’d be top 75 if not top 50. A top 5 pick bouncing back and nearly having 30/30 season.... Dont know how he’d not be on list. Can’t tell me there are 100 other players with his explosive tools and ceiling. He was hurt and aggressively placed. Seems little unfair to knock him that extremely for that


The only thing I can figure is that they feel his progression in 2018 was a fluke. Hopefully he continues to build on it in San Antonio this year, along with cleaning up his K issues and maybe getting that average and OBP up a bit.


When you really look at Ray's minor league opportunities, one can easily argue that his 2016-2017 seasons were more than likely the fluke compared to 2018. Drafted in summer 2016, Ray's 1st minor league assignment later that year came at High A+ Brevard County - not Rookie level Helena, not low A Wisconsin. Brevard County is an offensive graveyard, and that was Ray's 1st taste of professional level baseball. Then he hurts his knee in fall instructionals and has to spend his first full offseason rehabbing a meniscus tear surgery. He then repeats A+ to get a full season there, this time with Carolina, and has what we all can consider to be a poor offensive year. However, by all accounts he was still impacted by recovering from that knee injury.

After actually getting a full and healthy offseason to work on his craft prior to the 2018 season, Ray almost puts up a 30/30 season during his 1st stint in AA and is the Southern League player of the year - yet now he's outside the top 100 prospects when prior to the 2017 season following a knee surgery and a rough 2016 pro start he was easily in the top 50?

Hi K rate has hovered around 30% the past two seasons, which needs to drop a bit but in reality not too much for him to be a quality major leaguer offensively if he maintains the level of pop in his bat that he showed in 2018. I'm eager to see what Ray can do in a hitter-friendly league, particularly with it being AAA.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#84

Posted: January 24, 2019, 8:40 AM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
YoungGeezy1 said:
Top 25 would be big reach but after year he had in AA & being top 5 pick.... he’d be top 75 if not top 50. A top 5 pick bouncing back and nearly having 30/30 season.... Dont know how he’d not be on list. Can’t tell me there are 100 other players with his explosive tools and ceiling. He was hurt and aggressively placed. Seems little unfair to knock him that extremely for that


The only thing I can figure is that they feel his progression in 2018 was a fluke. Hopefully he continues to build on it in San Antonio this year, along with cleaning up his K issues and maybe getting that average and OBP up a bit.


When you really look at Ray's minor league opportunities, one can easily argue that his 2016-2017 seasons were more than likely the fluke compared to 2018. Drafted in summer 2016, Ray's 1st minor league assignment later that year came at High A+ Brevard County - not Rookie level Helena, not low A Wisconsin. Brevard County is an offensive graveyard, and that was Ray's 1st taste of professional level baseball. Then he hurts his knee in fall instructionals and has to spend his first full offseason rehabbing a meniscus tear surgery. He then repeats A+ to get a full season there, this time with Carolina, and has what we all can consider to be a poor offensive year. However, by all accounts he was still impacted by recovering from that knee injury.

After actually getting a full and healthy offseason to work on his craft prior to the 2018 season, Ray almost puts up a 30/30 season during his 1st stint in AA and is the Southern League player of the year - yet now he's outside the top 100 prospects when prior to the 2017 season following a knee surgery and a rough 2016 pro start he was easily in the top 50?

Hi K rate has hovered around 30% the past two seasons, which needs to drop a bit but in reality not too much for him to be a quality major leaguer offensively if he maintains the level of pop in his bat that he showed in 2018. I'm eager to see what Ray can do in a hitter-friendly league, particularly with it being AAA.


Me as well. Ray has been a tad snake bit early on in his career, but the guy really started to show what the Brewers saw when they chose him at #5. And if you look at that draft, there aren't a ton of guys there that have made a ton of noise. Of the top college picks, Senzel is knocking on the door. Puk was looking like a sure MLB contributor last year before getting hurt. Cal Quantrill has underwhelmed. Zack Collins has treaded water. Kyle Lewis has arguably been more disappointing than Ray. Matt Thaiss has been solid offensively, but loses some value moving from catcher to 1B. If they had to do it all over again, maybe they draft one of the HS pitchers like Garrett, Manning, Groome or obviously Whitley, but I think its way too early to write of Ray.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#85

Posted: January 24, 2019, 6:02 PM Post
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Has BA published the top 100 list yet? Curious who the second Brewers prospect is.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#86

Posted: January 24, 2019, 6:07 PM Post
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SRB said:
Has BA published the top 100 list yet? Curious who the second Brewers prospect is.

It was Burnes and Hiura.

BA bases prospect status on 50 IP - ignoring the 45 days of service time that most people observe (including us at BF.net).


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#87

Posted: January 24, 2019, 6:21 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:

Me as well. Ray has been a tad snake bit early on in his career, but the guy really started to show what the Brewers saw when they chose him at #5. And if you look at that draft, there aren't a ton of guys there that have made a ton of noise. Of the top college picks, Senzel is knocking on the door. Puk was looking like a sure MLB contributor last year before getting hurt. Cal Quantrill has underwhelmed. Zack Collins has treaded water. Kyle Lewis has arguably been more disappointing than Ray. Matt Thaiss has been solid offensively, but loses some value moving from catcher to 1B. If they had to do it all over again, maybe they draft one of the HS pitchers like Garrett, Manning, Groome or obviously Whitley, but I think its way too early to write of Ray.

This draft class has been a bit underwhelming. A lot of injuries. From the guys taken after Ray, you have Kirilloff. Whitley, Trammell, Kieboom all looking pretty good. But even the guys picked before Corey aren't tearing things up (outside of Senzel).

Groome was the big wild card - but the Brewers were never going to draft the guy. There were issues that the team did not want to do with regarding the guy. And he TJ last May and probably won't be back until mid-summer.

The 2016 draft was a bad one to have a high pick in (if that's really a bad thing). It was weak at the top but had some solid depth. Ray, despite being a college bat, was (and still is) a work in progress. The team knew that. I was really happy about his 2018 performance, but the late swoon was really disappointing. He had a .262 BA on July 29 - then saw his BA plummet over the next 5-6 weeks. If he could have maintained that BA to the season's end - he would have really made some people take note. Still, 66 xbh and 60 walks is pretty sweet. If he can even hit .250ish - he can be really valuable. Maybe not an all star - but still valuable. A lot of people will be watching.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#88

Posted: January 25, 2019, 5:33 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:

Me as well. Ray has been a tad snake bit early on in his career, but the guy really started to show what the Brewers saw when they chose him at #5. And if you look at that draft, there aren't a ton of guys there that have made a ton of noise. Of the top college picks, Senzel is knocking on the door. Puk was looking like a sure MLB contributor last year before getting hurt. Cal Quantrill has underwhelmed. Zack Collins has treaded water. Kyle Lewis has arguably been more disappointing than Ray. Matt Thaiss has been solid offensively, but loses some value moving from catcher to 1B. If they had to do it all over again, maybe they draft one of the HS pitchers like Garrett, Manning, Groome or obviously Whitley, but I think its way too early to write of Ray.

This draft class has been a bit underwhelming. A lot of injuries. From the guys taken after Ray, you have Kirilloff. Whitley, Trammell, Kieboom all looking pretty good. But even the guys picked before Corey aren't tearing things up (outside of Senzel).

Groome was the big wild card - but the Brewers were never going to draft the guy. There were issues that the team did not want to do with regarding the guy. And he TJ last May and probably won't be back until mid-summer.

The 2016 draft was a bad one to have a high pick in (if that's really a bad thing). It was weak at the top but had some solid depth. Ray, despite being a college bat, was (and still is) a work in progress. The team knew that. I was really happy about his 2018 performance, but the late swoon was really disappointing. He had a .262 BA on July 29 - then saw his BA plummet over the next 5-6 weeks. If he could have maintained that BA to the season's end - he would have really made some people take note. Still, 66 xbh and 60 walks is pretty sweet. If he can even hit .250ish - he can be really valuable. Maybe not an all star - but still valuable. A lot of people will be watching.


I always thought he could be a left-handed Keon Broxton at worst.

K issues, yes, but speed, decent OBP skills, power, and defense. And being left-handed, he'll post better numbers than Broxton simply because there are far more righties than lefties on pitching staffs.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#89

Posted: January 26, 2019, 10:35 AM Post
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Looks like MLB Pipeline will have a top 100 update today.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#90

Posted: January 27, 2019, 7:22 AM Post
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The Prospects1500 list is pretty thorough in their Top 50

Lun Zhao at 49? They'll learn...


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#91

Posted: January 28, 2019, 11:46 AM Post
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trwi7 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
For a guy who seemingly loves prospects, you sure do seem to not like some of them, but thanks for the condescension. I'd love for someone to explain to me what makes Estevan Florial such a higher rated prospect than Corey Ray. It certainly isn't numbers or K rate.


I do. That doesn't mean I don't recognize flaws when I see them. A .240 average, .320 OBP and 30% K rate from a 23 year old prospect with that being by far his best season isn't worthy of a top 100 spot as I said before and you strongly disagreed with.

As far as Florial, he was probably on the list in 2018 because he had just hit a combined .298/.372/.479 as a 19 year old between A and A+ in 2017 while also holding his own in the Fall League and probably having tools that made it look like he could be an above average starter or star if/when he got to the majors. But your choosing of Florial is weird because he had a terrible 2018 and is no longer on the top 100 of either Baseball America and dropped around 40 spots in Baseball Prospectus. But I guess they're still hugely pro Yankee what with the zero top 100 prospects on Baseball America and two in Baseball Prospectus.


Florial is at #57 according to MLB Pipeline. Callis has said that Ray is at #101 (https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status ... 2745832448). Nothing to shake a stick at, and he will likely easily be Top 100 if he starts well in AAA. So while you were technically correct when calling me out for believing Ray would be a Top 100 prospect, he is obviously right there.

Still, if Ray was a Yankee prospect and Florial a Brewer, I could easily see them reversed on the list.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#92

Posted: January 28, 2019, 12:07 PM Post
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Jim Callis
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More Jim Callis Retweeted
Realistic ceiling for Hiura would be batting champ/All-Star. Could see him putting up numbers similar to what Scooter Gennett did last year, along with the same so-so defense. @Brewers #Top100Prospects


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#93

Posted: January 28, 2019, 1:12 PM Post
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FanGraphs list for the Orioles is up today with former Brewers Jean Carmona & Luis Ortiz checking in at #29 & #31, respectively. Seems like Ortiz has really tumbled down the rankings since we first acquired him.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-pros ... e-orioles/


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#94

Posted: January 28, 2019, 6:36 PM Post
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Mass Haas said:

I think Braden Webb at #37 is the bigger red flag.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#95

Posted: January 29, 2019, 7:43 AM Post
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Keith Law has Zack Brown at #85 on his list. I hope Brown takes another leap this year. If he does, he's looking at possibly helping the ML squad come August.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#96

Posted: January 29, 2019, 8:04 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
FanGraphs list for the Orioles is up today with former Brewers Jean Carmona & Luis Ortiz checking in at #29 & #31, respectively. Seems like Ortiz has really tumbled down the rankings since we first acquired him.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-pros ... e-orioles/


He's tumbled down the rankings since he was basically first drafted. A starting pitching prospect who has yet to log 100 IP in a season after 5 years of development stops becoming a starting pitching prospect.

He's got talent, but the combo of nagging injuries and seemingly poor conditioning/body type are red flags that can't be ignored. I know many posters really wished he was still in the Brewers' organization, but he simply got passed by too many other pitchers currently on the 40 man roster. Baltimore should actually give him a decent shot at realizing his potential to be a MLB pitcher, hoping for Ortiz that he can put it together - it just wasn't going to happen fast enough as a member of the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#97

Posted: January 29, 2019, 9:06 AM Post
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Keith Law has Zack Brown at 85 with this report

Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff were both top 100 prospects for me and played huge roles in the Brewers' bullpen in 2018 before what will presumably be a transition to the rotation this spring. Brown looks set to follow in their footsteps after a breakout year with Double-A Biloxi. Drafted in the 5th round out of the University of Kentucky in 2016, Brown saw everything tick up last year. He is throwing 92 to 95 mph, working with a four- and a two-seamer, as well as a plus curveball, a changeup and a new slider that should give him a fourth (or fifth) average pitch.

He is very competitive, and he showed last year he could command his stuff to both sides of the plate. He always has thrown strikes, but work with the Brewers' coaches got him to focus less on throwing hard and more on locating. I do hear mixed things on the fastball life, and there's some scout concern that he ultimately is a reliever, but the command and pitch mix point to at least a back-end starter -- and he's still improving.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#98

Posted: January 29, 2019, 9:15 AM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
sveumrules said:
FanGraphs list for the Orioles is up today with former Brewers Jean Carmona & Luis Ortiz checking in at #29 & #31, respectively. Seems like Ortiz has really tumbled down the rankings since we first acquired him.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-pros ... e-orioles/


He's tumbled down the rankings since he was basically first drafted. A starting pitching prospect who has yet to log 100 IP in a season after 5 years of development stops becoming a starting pitching prospect.

He's got talent, but the combo of nagging injuries and seemingly poor conditioning/body type are red flags that can't be ignored. I know many posters really wished he was still in the Brewers' organization, but he simply got passed by too many other pitchers currently on the 40 man roster. Baltimore should actually give him a decent shot at realizing his potential to be a MLB pitcher, hoping for Ortiz that he can put it together - it just wasn't going to happen fast enough as a member of the Brewers.


Ortiz may be destined for the bullpen. Perhaps his ceiling was more Josh Hader than ace starter.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
#99

Posted: January 30, 2019, 2:03 PM Post
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His ceiling ain’t Hader...


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Offline  Re: 2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations
Posted: January 30, 2019, 9:08 PM Post
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Prospect rankings really can get into a mishmash as you get into the latter half of rankings.

I remember John Sickels saying something like ranking the top 50 or so guys is easier than putting together the rest of a list. He said the #75-150 guys are sort of interchangeable depending on the what the evaluator(s) value (or don't value). People look at things different: tools or performance in the upper minors or K rates or walk rates or age or whatever. Nothing wrong with any of it. It's why Ray at 101 or 71 really isn't that big of deal at this point. Of course, in the end, it's nice that our guys get some recognition.


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