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Trent Grisham

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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:54 AM Post
Posts: 1105
Grisham is an MLB-ready or extremely close to it prospect with some upside. And he really isn't blocked next year, spreading playing time between 4 OFs is still plenty of at bats to go around, especially in the NL. Braun, and to a lesser degree Cain, will need their off days. Perhaps some 1B for Braun too. Gamel has options. And then there's the extra roster spot next year.

With Grisham I'll take the same stance I took with Hiura, Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff and Hader (Well, and Lewis Brinson too to be fair... at least I'm consistent); If you're looking to compete over the next few years, and it's not a complete all-in for 1-2 years only to rebuild after, you generally don't trade guys with 6-7 years of team control who look likely to help you in just the window you're looking for. I don't believe much in trying to "sell high" as a strategy, at least not as the primary motivation for a trade. If you don't believe in a prospect, or that prospect is blocked, then yeah by all means try to sell high if selling was the likely outcome anyway. But it's not much of a strategy otherwise. It's a good way to miss out on breakout players, and it's not going to gain you much even when you're right in many cases. His trade value won't have risen as much as his performances have, even among teams who believed in him beforehand, so it's not really even selling high. To me, if you truly believe in a prospect who's close to contributing (i.e risk is lower), you keep him. If you trade him away, it's because you get a long-term true impact player like Yelich and Sale in recent years.

Braun has been like a 107 wRC+ hitter with average to below average defense in LF over the last three years. You don't have to fully buy into Grishams breakout to believe that he can at least match that. Which, starting in 2021, frees up 15-18m for other positions without weakening the team. That's why you develop prospects, even a league-average or low-end starter who's cheap for 4-5 seasons is valuable in that it saves you spending money on those positions and can put it to use on impact players. Prospects don't need to be stars to be worthwhile. Keeping Grisham is a very defensible move even for those who don't fully believe in what he's doing this year. Trading him is only really a good move if another team truly views him as one of the best hitting prospects around, and are willing to value him as such.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 8:50 AM Post
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TigerUppercut said:
Serious question. I've been a follower of Brewer affiliate baseball for over 20 years and I don't ever remember a prospect ever being this hot over a 2+ month stretch. Am I missing someone?


Mat Gamel flirted with .400 and accumulated a good amount of SLG at AA for a large part of a season. That is one memorable performance at AA or above that is in this territory, IMO.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 9:02 AM Post
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For eye-popping stats, I'll take LaVel Freeman in AA El Paso, .395/.467/.627, though El Paso in those days was as extreme a hitter's environment as can be...


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Online  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 9:07 AM Post
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Grisham is just a fascinating subject.

Three years of meh production - and then boom, just raking. His AA production was more of what I envisioned he could be - hitting .260 with a bunch of walks, maybe 15 or so HRs. But he's obliterated those numbers at AAA.

As for the 'is it real' question, I'll trust the guys that know him best on this board - such as Toby - who have noted why he is having success. Makes me excited for his future in Milwaukee. I hope we don't deal him unless it's for a really good haul.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 9:41 AM Post
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reillymcshane said:
Grisham is just a fascinating subject.

Three years of meh production - and then boom, just raking. His AA production was more of what I envisioned he could be - hitting .260 with a bunch of walks, maybe 15 or so HRs. But he's obliterated those numbers at AAA.

As for the 'is it real' question, I'll trust the guys that know him best on this board - such as Toby - who have noted why he is having success. Makes me excited for his future in Milwaukee. I hope we don't deal him unless it's for a really good haul.

One interesting thing about his Double-A performance this season is his BABIP was pretty low (just .269) whereas at Triple-A it's been very high (.384). I know the MLB league average BABIP is generally right around .300, but I assume it is a little higher for Double-A and Triple-A. Maybe there are other reasons I'm not accounting for (like the Triple-A baseball), but it does seem as though at least some of the difference in his offense numbers between the two levels can be explained by batted ball luck (bad luck in AA and much better luck in AAA). I don't believe BABIP is completely luck driven, and considering his power surge and reduced K% this season there is obviously plenty to like about his offensive profile right now.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 11:49 AM Post
Posts: 1105
A lot of (comparatively) high-altitude ballparks in the PCL, which helps BABIP. They're often bigger as well to compensate. And then there's this year's baseball. And BABIP in general in the minors is going to be higher due to worse defense, and (I think) less shifting. Overall a bunch of things that could explain the increased BABIP as he moved up, including a few more % worth of Linedrives. Generally a high HR/FB rate will drive up BABIP as well, since fly balls that don't go for HRs tend to be outs far more often than grounders or linedrives.

But BABIP is one of the slowest stats there is when it comes to stabilization rate, I recall it being 1200 PAs or so, though not sure if that was for pitchers or hitters. Regardless, he doesn't have enough PAs at either level to say anything conclusively even if it would seem he was, as you say, unlucky at AA and having some more luck in AAA.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 1:32 PM Post
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Lathund said:
A lot of (comparatively) high-altitude ballparks in the PCL, which helps BABIP. They're often bigger as well to compensate. And then there's this year's baseball. And BABIP in general in the minors is going to be higher due to worse defense, and (I think) less shifting. Overall a bunch of things that could explain the increased BABIP as he moved up, including a few more % worth of Linedrives. Generally a high HR/FB rate will drive up BABIP as well, since fly balls that don't go for HRs tend to be outs far more often than grounders or linedrives.

But BABIP is one of the slowest stats there is when it comes to stabilization rate, I recall it being 1200 PAs or so, though not sure if that was for pitchers or hitters. Regardless, he doesn't have enough PAs at either level to say anything conclusively even if it would seem he was, as you say, unlucky at AA and having some more luck in AAA.



Obviously his numbers are going to be lower in the Majors, but I believe someone said recently (maybe on Twitter or maybe here) that he's 3rd in the PCL in DRC+ and that was before the cycle.

There's still something to outperforming everyone else in the league, even if it's a hitter friendly league, and word was he was still crushing the ball at AA as well in a more pitcher friendly environment.

He hasn't sold out for power either.

It's really really hard to poke holes in his season. It really looks legit.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 1:50 PM Post
Posts: 112
He's not in the lineup for the Missions tonight.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 1:57 PM Post
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PDCBalla said:
He's not in the lineup for the Missions tonight.


That seems really odd coming off of what he did last night. I mean I get that everyone needs rest, but you'd think you'd want to keep a hot bat in the lineup. Unless ...


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 1:58 PM Post
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Greenleaf1 said:
Lathund said:
A lot of (comparatively) high-altitude ballparks in the PCL, which helps BABIP. They're often bigger as well to compensate. And then there's this year's baseball. And BABIP in general in the minors is going to be higher due to worse defense, and (I think) less shifting. Overall a bunch of things that could explain the increased BABIP as he moved up, including a few more % worth of Linedrives. Generally a high HR/FB rate will drive up BABIP as well, since fly balls that don't go for HRs tend to be outs far more often than grounders or linedrives.

But BABIP is one of the slowest stats there is when it comes to stabilization rate, I recall it being 1200 PAs or so, though not sure if that was for pitchers or hitters. Regardless, he doesn't have enough PAs at either level to say anything conclusively even if it would seem he was, as you say, unlucky at AA and having some more luck in AAA.



Obviously his numbers are going to be lower in the Majors, but I believe someone said recently (maybe on Twitter or maybe here) that he's 3rd in the PCL in DRC+ and that was before the cycle.

There's still something to outperforming everyone else in the league, even if it's a hitter friendly league, and word was he was still crushing the ball at AA as well in a more pitcher friendly environment.

He hasn't sold out for power either.

It's really really hard to poke holes in his season. It really looks legit.



Make that #1, and not just in the PCL. All of AAA:

https://twitter.com/bachlaw/status/1156654074454061059


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 2:04 PM Post
Posts: 1105
Greenleaf1 said:
Lathund said:
A lot of (comparatively) high-altitude ballparks in the PCL, which helps BABIP. They're often bigger as well to compensate. And then there's this year's baseball. And BABIP in general in the minors is going to be higher due to worse defense, and (I think) less shifting. Overall a bunch of things that could explain the increased BABIP as he moved up, including a few more % worth of Linedrives. Generally a high HR/FB rate will drive up BABIP as well, since fly balls that don't go for HRs tend to be outs far more often than grounders or linedrives.

But BABIP is one of the slowest stats there is when it comes to stabilization rate, I recall it being 1200 PAs or so, though not sure if that was for pitchers or hitters. Regardless, he doesn't have enough PAs at either level to say anything conclusively even if it would seem he was, as you say, unlucky at AA and having some more luck in AAA.



Obviously his numbers are going to be lower in the Majors, but I believe someone said recently (maybe on Twitter or maybe here) that he's 3rd in the PCL in DRC+ and that was before the cycle.

There's still something to outperforming everyone else in the league, even if it's a hitter friendly league, and word was he was still crushing the ball at AA as well in a more pitcher friendly environment.

He hasn't sold out for power either.

It's really really hard to poke holes in his season. It really looks legit.


I wasn't arguing athat he wasn't for real, or not performing well. Just replying to the point brought up regarding his BABIP between AA and AAA. He has been about the same in relation to AAA as Trout has been to MLB, which even if that isn't his true talent level you still need to be a good player to do for even a couple of months.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 2:12 PM Post
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Lathund said:
Greenleaf1 said:
Lathund said:
A lot of (comparatively) high-altitude ballparks in the PCL, which helps BABIP. They're often bigger as well to compensate. And then there's this year's baseball. And BABIP in general in the minors is going to be higher due to worse defense, and (I think) less shifting. Overall a bunch of things that could explain the increased BABIP as he moved up, including a few more % worth of Linedrives. Generally a high HR/FB rate will drive up BABIP as well, since fly balls that don't go for HRs tend to be outs far more often than grounders or linedrives.

But BABIP is one of the slowest stats there is when it comes to stabilization rate, I recall it being 1200 PAs or so, though not sure if that was for pitchers or hitters. Regardless, he doesn't have enough PAs at either level to say anything conclusively even if it would seem he was, as you say, unlucky at AA and having some more luck in AAA.



Obviously his numbers are going to be lower in the Majors, but I believe someone said recently (maybe on Twitter or maybe here) that he's 3rd in the PCL in DRC+ and that was before the cycle.

There's still something to outperforming everyone else in the league, even if it's a hitter friendly league, and word was he was still crushing the ball at AA as well in a more pitcher friendly environment.

He hasn't sold out for power either.

It's really really hard to poke holes in his season. It really looks legit.


I wasn't arguing athat he wasn't for real, or not performing well. Just replying to the point brought up regarding his BABIP between AA and AAA. He has been about the same in relation to AAA as Trout has been to MLB, which even if that isn't his true talent level you still need to be a good player to do for even a couple of months.


Sorry, guess I misunderstood.

Probably about another 20 minutes before we're in the clear but no news on any last minute trades yet for the Brewers. I'm usually for trading any prospect in the right situation, but I'll be very glad to hold onto Grisham if for no other reason than it's been insanely fun to follow his statlines for the past few months.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 2:24 PM Post
Posts: 112
Firmly believe Trent is being promoted.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 2:44 PM Post
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PDCBalla said:
Firmly believe Trent is being promoted.


Well, that would be fun. I guess it makes some sense if Braun is going to see time at 1B. OF log jam if not, though. Braun is gonna get his ABs, and they wouldn't bring up a blazing hot Grisham to ride the pine.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 2:51 PM Post
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A Grisham call up would be pretty awesome. Probably just a day off amidst trade discussions. Let's hope it's not an injury.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 2:58 PM Post
Posts: 4
who knows what its worth but Chris Cook baseball coach at little rock. tweeted a congrats on his call up to the MLB


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 3:07 PM Post
Posts: 3066
That would bring the excitement level up a bit if true.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 3:08 PM Post
Posts: 96
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
He already deleted the tweet... Ugh, seeing that one deleted hurt me more than anything today


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 3:11 PM Post
Posts: 2581
It's more likely Melvin gave Stearns a call and suggested trolling us message boarders by resting Grisham today.


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Offline  Re: Trent Grisham
Posted: July 31, 2019, 3:11 PM Post
Posts: 4
Outlander said:
That would bring the excitement level up a bit if true.

Tweet has been deleted, either Trent told him and he put it up too soon or I have been hoodwinked


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