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Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019

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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#41

Posted: November 20, 2019, 7:42 PM Post
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markedman5 said:


Surprising. But perhaps Brown is a better prospect in fan eyes than in the team's. Still hope he doesn't get taken.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#42

Posted: November 20, 2019, 8:29 PM Post
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The reason why Brown was left off according to Haudricourt:

Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns admitted it was a tough decision to expose Brown to the Rule 5 draft in December but said his poor showing in 2019 at San Antonio (3-7, 5.79 ERA in 25 games, 1.73 WHIP) was the primary reason for doing so.


https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/m ... 243897002/


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#43

Posted: November 20, 2019, 9:37 PM Post
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Won't be surprised if Brown or Bickford gets picked. Especially Brown. A team can take a flier on him, and if he regains some of his 2018 flash, then they can use him in the bullpen. If he sucks, they're out 50k or whatever. No big deal.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#44

Posted: November 20, 2019, 9:52 PM Post
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Bickford the man getting taken but think DS has something brewing.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#45

Posted: November 21, 2019, 12:08 AM Post
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I'd be less pessimistic over Brown getting chosen if AAA pitching wasn't atrocious as a whole last year. More PCL teams had team ERAs above 6.00 than below 5.00. I wonder if a couple of guys who had abnormally bad years in AAA last year get chosen just to see if it was a fluke related to the offensive explosion across the whole level.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#46

Posted: November 21, 2019, 8:22 AM Post
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It's been awhile since I've heard the rules about what happens when a team's player gets selected in the Rule 5 draft, but if a team selected one of the Brewers' players, doesn't that mean they are able to protect 1 or 2 additional players? If so, that might also be part of the strategy. Say if the Brewers think a team will jump on taking Brown, they protect 2 more guys and in the back of their heads they make this gamble thinking there's a good chance Brown will end up being offered back to them because the claiming team might struggle to keep him on their MLB roster all season.

That said, with the roster expansion to 26 players maybe it becomes easier for a team, especially with this being the first season under that rule they may figure they're used to only having a 25 man roster anyway.


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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#47

Posted: November 21, 2019, 8:33 AM Post
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Look, I know prospect rankings aren't perfect, but it speaks volumes about how bad our farm system is when our Pipeline #3 prospect was deemed not worth protecting in the Rule 5 draft. That's almost unheard of.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#48

Posted: November 21, 2019, 8:39 AM Post
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SeaBass said:
It's been awhile since I've heard the rules about what happens when a team's player gets selected in the Rule 5 draft, but if a team selected one of the Brewers' players, doesn't that mean they are able to protect 1 or 2 additional players? If so, that might also be part of the strategy. Say if the Brewers think a team will jump on taking Brown, they protect 2 more guys and in the back of their heads they make this gamble thinking there's a good chance Brown will end up being offered back to them because the claiming team might struggle to keep him on their MLB roster all season.

That said, with the roster expansion to 26 players maybe it becomes easier for a team, especially with this being the first season under that rule they may figure they're used to only having a 25 man roster anyway.


I think you are confusing expansion drafts and the Rule 5 draft. With expansion drafts you can pull a player back after one is selected. Teams don't have that right with the Rule 5, though. All those guys, including Brown, Erceg, Webb, Griep and the rest, are eligible to be taken with no protections.

I personally expect at least one Brewer to be taken this year. It's not really a bad problem to have, as having players that other teams covet in the Rule 5 draft is a sign of a system that is getting deeper on talent ... especially talent that is close to making a major league impact.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#49

Posted: November 21, 2019, 8:43 AM Post
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Ah, you're right, that's what was getting fuddled up in my head. Thanks for setting me straight.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#50

Posted: November 21, 2019, 8:49 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Look, I know prospect rankings aren't perfect, but it speaks volumes about how bad our farm system is when our Pipeline #3 prospect was deemed not worth protecting in the Rule 5 draft. That's almost unheard of.


And if Brown is not drafted in the Rule 5, it also shows that perhaps these prospect rankings have misjudged him significantly. These rankings are put together by fans and/or journalists, for fans, with pretty scant knowledge of how teams value these players. I guess it wouldn't surprise me if Brown was drafted. It wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't, either.

One thing that I was thinking about this morning, while looking at those four open roster spots, was if the Brewers are considering taking a player in this year's Rule 5 draft.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#51

Posted: November 21, 2019, 10:22 AM Post
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I had no clue Bickford was a thing again. Not one IP above A+? Protect him? Yay so he dominated the 2H at the age of 23. Brown at least pitched in AAA. Terribly though. Maybe the team isn't protecting who you think they should because they're prospects, not MLB All-star potentials. Whats our Minors rank currently? 30th? 27th at best? What team is going to stash Erceg when he likely wouldnt be top 15-20 in that teams system? Much less worth playing time in MLB in 2020? Reality check and a good one on Stearns who will add more talent in the rule5 draft vs keeping less.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#52

Posted: November 21, 2019, 3:55 PM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
I had no clue Bickford was a thing again. Not one IP above A+? Protect him? Yay so he dominated the 2H at the age of 23. Brown at least pitched in AAA. Terribly though. Maybe the team isn't protecting who you think they should because they're prospects, not MLB All-star potentials. Whats our Minors rank currently? 30th? 27th at best? What team is going to stash Erceg when he likely wouldnt be top 15-20 in that teams system? Much less worth playing time in MLB in 2020? Reality check and a good one on Stearns who will add more talent in the rule5 draft vs keeping less.


I'm all for teams adding talent thru the various methods available.

That said, if Stearns is "adding" thru the R5 this December, the chances of Milwaukee being in serious contention for the NL Central flag yet alone a NL title/ World Series appearance take a serious hit..

EDIT: "adding" thru the major league portion of the R5 this December,


Last edited by MadThinker88 on November 21, 2019, 7:13 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#53

Posted: November 21, 2019, 6:57 PM Post
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I do think they may be active in the minor-league Rule V. Seems like a decent way to take a few chances on guys without giving them the MLB roster spot.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#54

Posted: November 21, 2019, 7:11 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
I do think they may be active in the minor-league Rule V. Seems like a decent way to take a few chances on guys without giving them the MLB roster spot.


That sounds reasonable. Players taken in the minor league portion do not have a mechanism to return to the original club & do not have to remain on the AAA or AA level (wherever selected)..

But we must remember that players not protected on the 40 man roster might be protected the AAA or AA designation lists. Those lower level lists are normally not published for fans to pick thru and debate. We generally won't know who is available in those phases of the draft until a particular player is selected. In fact the only time I saw those lists was a few years ago when a Cubs source published the ChiCubs listings.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#55

Posted: November 22, 2019, 8:43 AM Post

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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
One thing that I was thinking about this morning, while looking at those four open roster spots, was if the Brewers are considering taking a player in this year's Rule 5 draft.

assuming pitchers are capped at 13, i could see the brewers grabbing a versatile position player with strong defense and speed.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#56

Posted: November 22, 2019, 9:10 AM Post
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Was reading a pretty extensive rule 5 article on players available at Lookout landing (Mariners) at https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/11/ ... aft-primer

They list Zack Brown as the #1 player available and top 5 as:

RHP Zack Brown (MIL)
RHP Jordan Sheffield (LAD)
RHP Sterling Sharp (WAS)
RHP Alec Hansen (CWS)
1B Chris Gittens (NYY)


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#57

Posted: November 22, 2019, 7:25 PM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
I had no clue Bickford was a thing again. Not one IP above A+? Protect him? Yay so he dominated the 2H at the age of 23. Brown at least pitched in AAA. Terribly though. Maybe the team isn't protecting who you think they should because they're prospects, not MLB All-star potentials. Whats our Minors rank currently? 30th? 27th at best? What team is going to stash Erceg when he likely wouldnt be top 15-20 in that teams system? Much less worth playing time in MLB in 2020? Reality check and a good one on Stearns who will add more talent in the rule5 draft vs keeping less.


I'm still optimistic on Bickford, but I agree with you. He was red hot but it only covered 26 innings and we are talking about a 24 year old in A ball. I'll wait to see some scouting reports before I get too excited. I think Stearns made the right decision as Bickford is doesn't appear to be big league ready and I'd guess pretty much every organization out there would feel the same way. Sure he could get picked as a Yang/Diaz/Torrens/Cordoba developmental prospect....but I'm guessing if you look league-wide it would be pretty easy to find a whole bunch of prospects that would be more attractive.

Brown was terrible in AAA like you said, but if I was another team and had to pick between Brown and Bickford...I would take Brown and it's an easy decision. Yes, terrible last year, but he entered pro ball as a 5th round pick/fringe prospect. He worked his way up to some top 100 mentions, I don't know if the consensus opinion every got that high but it's safe to say that he probably worked himself from fringe to solid top 150 prospect and that was done through nearly 240 innings spread over 2 seasons. So while he was bad last year, there is still a solid track record of 240 innings versus the last 26 for Bickford. I don't think Brown will be picked either, so I think Stearns made the right decision on him too, but if I was in Stearns' chair I would have given it some serious consideration.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#58

Posted: November 24, 2019, 5:23 PM Post
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Looking over Gittens's stats...

He may be worth a flyer in the Rule 5...
https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... tten000chr

Very good OBP skills, some power...


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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#59

Posted: November 26, 2019, 7:14 AM Post
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The part I don’t completely understand is Zack Brown still has some asset value, at least I would think so? If he ends up being one of the first players off the board in the Rule 5 draft, then it seems like they would have been better off to have protected him and worked out a trade this offseason in order to move him off their 40-man roster while retaining some value in return for him. I guess they can always work out a trade with the team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft (so the stipulations of returning him to Milwaukee don’t exist), but at that point the Brewers front office won’t have much leverage since they’ll be dealing with a single team. I guess it’s certainly possible (maybe likely?) they already floated him as a trade candidate earlier this offseason and couldn’t find any takers.

As an aside, the rosters expanding to 26-players seemingly makes it a lot easier for teams to carry Rule 5 selections on their rosters throughout the season, especially for rebuilding teams taking a chance on a player with high upside.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#60

Posted: November 26, 2019, 8:03 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
The part I don’t completely understand is Zack Brown still has some asset value, at least I would think so? If he ends up being one of the first players off the board in the Rule 5 draft, then it seems like they would have been better off to have protected him and worked out a trade this offseason in order to move him off their 40-man roster while retaining some value in return for him. I guess they can always work out a trade with the team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft (so the stipulations of returning him to Milwaukee don’t exist), but at that point the Brewers front office won’t have much leverage since they’ll be dealing with a single team. I guess it’s certainly possible (maybe likely?) they already floated him as a trade candidate earlier this offseason and couldn’t find any takers.

As an aside, the rosters expanding to 26-players seemingly makes it a lot easier for teams to carry Rule 5 selections on their rosters throughout the season, especially for rebuilding teams taking a chance on a player with high upside.


IMO the Brewers probably tried to do something with Brown, but got no takers. He was badly overmatched at AAA last year (5.79 ERA - many more hits than IPs - 1.73 WHIP - almost 5 BBs per 9). I don't see any team thinking he would be Rule 5 material. I believe the Brewers left him unprotected because they feel he isn't going anywhere so why waste a spot for him.


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