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Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019

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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#61

Posted: November 27, 2019, 9:54 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Eye Black said:
The part I don’t completely understand is Zack Brown still has some asset value, at least I would think so? If he ends up being one of the first players off the board in the Rule 5 draft, then it seems like they would have been better off to have protected him and worked out a trade this offseason in order to move him off their 40-man roster while retaining some value in return for him. I guess they can always work out a trade with the team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft (so the stipulations of returning him to Milwaukee don’t exist), but at that point the Brewers front office won’t have much leverage since they’ll be dealing with a single team. I guess it’s certainly possible (maybe likely?) they already floated him as a trade candidate earlier this offseason and couldn’t find any takers.

As an aside, the rosters expanding to 26-players seemingly makes it a lot easier for teams to carry Rule 5 selections on their rosters throughout the season, especially for rebuilding teams taking a chance on a player with high upside.


IMO the Brewers probably tried to do something with Brown, but got no takers. He was badly overmatched at AAA last year (5.79 ERA - many more hits than IPs - 1.73 WHIP - almost 5 BBs per 9). I don't see any team thinking he would be Rule 5 material. I believe the Brewers left him unprotected because they feel he isn't going anywhere so why waste a spot for him.

He obviously didn’t have a stellar campaign, but when put into the context of the overall PCL run environment last season he really wasn’t nearly as bad as we would traditionally think of those numbers.

There were 98 pitchers in the PCL that made 10+ starts last year (Zach Brown made 23 starts which was 8th most in the PCL last year), and the average age of those starters was just over 26 years old (average age of all PCL pitchers was 26.7). Brown was 24 years old last season, so still a couple of years below the average age.

Below is Zack Brown’s stat line compared to the league average pitching results in the PCL for 2019.

League Average (PCL):
5.49 ERA
1.523 WHIP
9.8 H9
1.5 HR9
3.9 BB9
8.9 SO9

Zack Brown:
5.79 ERA
1.731 WHIP
10.6 H9
1.2 HR9
4.9 BB9
7.6 SO9

So again, he was not good last year, but considering his previous track record as well as the fact he was in a horrendous run environment last year, I will be a little surprised if nobody takes a chance on him in the Rule 5 draft.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#62

Posted: November 27, 2019, 10:55 PM Post
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Have to agree that leaving Brown unprotected makes no sense. He's absolutely going to get taken, the only question is if he sticks with his new team.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#63

Posted: November 28, 2019, 3:27 AM Post
Posts: 606
Eye Black said:
wntrtxn21 said:
Eye Black said:
The part I don’t completely understand is Zack Brown still has some asset value, at least I would think so? If he ends up being one of the first players off the board in the Rule 5 draft, then it seems like they would have been better off to have protected him and worked out a trade this offseason in order to move him off their 40-man roster while retaining some value in return for him. I guess they can always work out a trade with the team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft (so the stipulations of returning him to Milwaukee don’t exist), but at that point the Brewers front office won’t have much leverage since they’ll be dealing with a single team. I guess it’s certainly possible (maybe likely?) they already floated him as a trade candidate earlier this offseason and couldn’t find any takers.

As an aside, the rosters expanding to 26-players seemingly makes it a lot easier for teams to carry Rule 5 selections on their rosters throughout the season, especially for rebuilding teams taking a chance on a player with high upside.


IMO the Brewers probably tried to do something with Brown, but got no takers. He was badly overmatched at AAA last year (5.79 ERA - many more hits than IPs - 1.73 WHIP - almost 5 BBs per 9). I don't see any team thinking he would be Rule 5 material. I believe the Brewers left him unprotected because they feel he isn't going anywhere so why waste a spot for him.

He obviously didn’t have a stellar campaign, but when put into the context of the overall PCL run environment last season he really wasn’t nearly as bad as we would traditionally think of those numbers.

There were 98 pitchers in the PCL that made 10+ starts last year (Zach Brown made 23 starts which was 8th most in the PCL last year), and the average age of those starters was just over 26 years old (average age of all PCL pitchers was 26.7). Brown was 24 years old last season, so still a couple of years below the average age.

Below is Zack Brown’s stat line compared to the league average pitching results in the PCL for 2019.

League Average (PCL):
5.49 ERA
1.523 WHIP
9.8 H9
1.5 HR9
3.9 BB9
8.9 SO9

Zack Brown:
5.79 ERA
1.731 WHIP
10.6 H9
1.2 HR9
4.9 BB9
7.6 SO9

So again, he was not good last year, but considering his previous track record as well as the fact he was in a horrendous run environment last year, I will be a little surprised if nobody takes a chance on him in the Rule 5 draft.


I can't see how a team would waste a spot on the 26 man roster for the entire year especially if the pitcher limit is 13. Maybe if the expanded roster goes to 14 pitchers.


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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#64

Posted: November 28, 2019, 4:11 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
I can't see how a team would waste a spot on the 26 man roster for the entire year especially if the pitcher limit is 13. Maybe if the expanded roster goes to 14 pitchers.

We’re less than three years removed from the Padres taking three players in their early 20’s that had no business being anywhere near a major league roster (Link) and keeping them for an entire year on their 25-man roster. I don’t think it’s far fetched that a rebuilding team in the business of talent acquisition could/would carry a 24 year old that’s already spent an entire season one step from the majors. He could be used as a long reliever in low leverage situations and would have little impact other than eating some meaningless innings.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#65

Posted: November 28, 2019, 8:29 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
I can't see how a team would waste a spot on the 26 man roster for the entire year especially if the pitcher limit is 13. Maybe if the expanded roster goes to 14 pitchers.

Look at the Orioles' pitching staff last year. He can't be worse than half of those guys.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#66

Posted: November 29, 2019, 11:34 AM Post
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Isn't this a very common occurrence to "hide" a pitcher in the BP for the year (and that was with 25-man rosters); especially on the worse teams?

I know the Brewers have done it several times.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#67

Posted: November 30, 2019, 9:39 PM Post
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It's unusual for a team to "hide" a pitcher like the Brewers did with Wei-Chung Wang, who was a Rookie-ball pitcher with no business being on a MLB roster.

Brown has pitched an entire season at AAA, he may end up having a mediocre season but I don't think the acquiring team will have to hide him.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#68

Posted: December 02, 2019, 1:00 PM Post
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SRB said:
It's unusual for a team to "hide" a pitcher like the Brewers did with Wei-Chung Wang, who was a Rookie-ball pitcher with no business being on a MLB roster.

Brown has pitched an entire season at AAA, he may end up having a mediocre season but I don't think the acquiring team will have to hide him.

To me, this is why I think someone will nab Brown.

He's not an A ball pitcher. He's a 26 year old at AAA. Yes, he sucked last year. But before that, he was an interesting arm. Sure you'd like to give him more time at AAA, but coming into 2019, most people didn't see him that far off of being in the majors.

Thus a bad team can take him, tell him he's a reliever and to prepare as such, and give him a bullpen gig in the majors. He was that far off from such a gig a year ago. Work with him, maybe iron out any issues you find (if any), and if he does okay, you're gold. You got an arm for the next half-decade. If not, no big deal. Your team isn't winning anyways. Just return him to Milwaukee. No harm, no foul.


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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#69

Posted: December 03, 2019, 9:24 AM Post
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With all the room on the roster now, I kinda think the Brewers may just be active in this year's Rule 5.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#70

Posted: December 03, 2019, 10:25 AM Post
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I tend to agree, maybe not keeping the player but at least taking a look.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#71

Posted: December 03, 2019, 2:06 PM Post
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Outlander said:
I tend to agree, maybe not keeping the player but at least taking a look.

Yep, the one that has my interest is 3B Christian Santana, http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?pl ... g/2019/ALL
I like the upside.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#72

Posted: December 03, 2019, 3:31 PM Post
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Jaylyn said:
Outlander said:
I tend to agree, maybe not keeping the player but at least taking a look.

Yep, the one that has my interest is 3B Christian Santana, http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?pl ... g/2019/ALL
I like the upside.


Wow. I thought Oscar Gonzalez (https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... nzal003osc) has a rough time taking walks...

BTW - Oscar is also R5 eligible. A rebuilding team like Detroit might have interest in Oscar but I doubt most teams would take the chance.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#73

Posted: December 03, 2019, 6:12 PM Post
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How about 1B Roberto Ramos (Colorado)? He's done nothing but hit throughout the minor leagues, including last season when he hit .309/.400/.580/.980 with 30 HR and a .406 wOBA at AAA. Prospect evaluators thinks he is a Quad-A player, but heck, we have a black hole at 1B and maybe he's the next Russell Branyan (or, perhaps more aptly, Khris Davis)?


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#74

Posted: December 03, 2019, 10:57 PM Post
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MadThinker88 said:
Jaylyn said:
Outlander said:
I tend to agree, maybe not keeping the player but at least taking a look.

Yep, the one that has my interest is 3B Christian Santana, http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?pl ... g/2019/ALL
I like the upside.


Wow. I thought Oscar Gonzalez (https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... nzal003osc) has a rough time taking walks...

BTW - Oscar is also R5 eligible. A rebuilding team like Detroit might have interest in Oscar but I doubt most teams would take the chance.

[laughing] [laughing] [laughing] [laughing] [laughing] Let's say they both need a little more plate discipline! And Ramos, sure why not! When when a 1B is signed, gonna need a backup, since I believe my thought of having Braun play first in a soft platoon is more than likely not going to happen!


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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#75

Posted: December 10, 2019, 3:34 PM Post
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Sterling Sharp (RHP in the Nats system) would be fun, if only for the name.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#76

Posted: December 10, 2019, 11:02 PM Post
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Any fallen “think big” players like when the Reds took Josh Hamilton? Brady Aiken or other 1st rounders?


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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#77

Posted: December 10, 2019, 11:14 PM Post
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Former Brewers beat writer Robert Murray highlighted an intriguing player that Seattle left unprotected...

A name to watch in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft: Mariners’ Eric Filia. Filia, 27, is a former top prospect who has posted more walks than strikeouts in each of his four minor-league seasons.

Filla’s career numbers in the minor leagues include a .412 OBP and .843 OPS.


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#78

Posted: December 10, 2019, 11:46 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
Former Brewers beat writer Robert Murray highlighted an intriguing player that Seattle left unprotected...

A name to watch in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft: Mariners’ Eric Filia. Filia, 27, is a former top prospect who has posted more walks than strikeouts in each of his four minor-league seasons.

Filla’s career numbers in the minor leagues include a .412 OBP and .843 OPS.

Would be worth a shot if he can lay of the weed! smh


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Offline  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#79

Posted: December 11, 2019, 7:49 AM Post
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I'm going to guess the Brewers make a pick with a position player and if I had to say one guy it would be Ka'ai Tom of the Indians. Kind of reminds me of Trent Grisham, a left handed hitter that can play all three OF positions, had a power surge in 2019 that started in AA and continued in AAA and can get on base.


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Online  Re: Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
#80

Posted: December 11, 2019, 7:52 AM Post
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Jaylyn said:
Would be worth a shot if he can lay of the weed! smh

Well starting next year marijuana is no longer being tested for in the minor leagues, and it has never been part of the MLB testing program so that shouldn’t be much of a concern moving forward in terms of a possible suspension.


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