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Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.

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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#41

Posted: July 30, 2019, 11:33 AM Post
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The lists have some inertia, as they should, particularly in season. So Grisham or Ray doesn't drop as far as you might expect in a mediocre season, and then Grisham doesn't gain as many positions as you might expect in a breakthrough. If you base your rankings on scouting as well as stats, that is as it should be.

Really after the top 4 picks in the draft, it's a huge crapshoot.

I think a study concluding a huge drop-off from 1-4 to 1-5 is flawed. Doing statistics on the MLB draft, for which there is a sample size of one each year, you can't possibly hope for that level of precision in your conclusions. It's also not clear that median is the right metric, or at least the only right metric. In the last 20 years, along with all the busts, there have been four guys taken 5th overall with 40+ bWAR, but nobody taken 4th overall has hit that level (Ryan Zimmerman is close at 37.8).


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#42

Posted: July 30, 2019, 12:04 PM Post
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SoCalBrewfan said:
The lists have some inertia, as they should, particularly in season. So Grisham or Ray doesn't drop as far as you might expect in a mediocre season, and then Grisham doesn't gain as many positions as you might expect in a breakthrough. If you base your rankings on scouting as well as stats, that is as it should be.

Really after the top 4 picks in the draft, it's a huge crapshoot.

I think a study concluding a huge drop-off from 1-4 to 1-5 is flawed. Doing statistics on the MLB draft, for which there is a sample size of one each year, you can't possibly hope for that level of precision in your conclusions. It's also not clear that median is the right metric, or at least the only right metric. In the last 20 years, along with all the busts, there have been four guys taken 5th overall with 40+ bWAR, but nobody taken 4th overall has hit that level (Ryan Zimmerman is close at 37.8).

This is true, and given the addition of the bonus pool in 2012 and comp picks for unsigned picks in 2010, the players picked prior to those years may not have been the players picked had those rules been in place at that time.

What I will acknowledge is that the #5 overall pick in one year may not be the same as the #5 overall pick in another year. In the last 20 years the Brewers have had top 5 picks four times, and three of those years had arguably three of the lowest levels of talent in a draft during that time with 2003 (Weeks #2 overall) being perhaps the worst draft class of the last 20 years. Take Verlander out of the 2004 class (Rogers #5 overall) and it's as bad as 2003.


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#43

Posted: July 30, 2019, 12:06 PM Post
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SoCalBrewfan said:
I think a study concluding a huge drop-off from 1-4 to 1-5 is flawed.

The median drop-off kind of is what it is. I'm assuming the veracity of the data is fine, which if it is, the drop-off appears to exist. As I said, the 5th overall seems to be a bad luck pick of sorts, looking at the median outcome.

And the median outcome was used and not the mean, I assume, because it eliminates the fact that every slot in the first round of the draft has had superstars drafted in it and that skews the average outcome of the pick. If you have 20 nobodys, and also Babe Ruth, it's going to look like the average is pretty decent. There's only a little over 50 years of data, so with that sort of small-ish population, large numbers at the top can still definitely skew an average.

Should teams feel that drafting at 14 overall is a lost cause? Of course not. Luck and scouting skill can absolutely increase the odds. But "should" the 14th overall be a solid MLB contributor? History seems to indicate that should not be a foregone conclusion, or even be assumed to be a likely outcome.


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#44

Posted: August 01, 2019, 8:37 AM Post
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JosephC said:
adambr2 said:
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=mil

New Brewers pipeline top 30 is out.

I'm kind of blown away by this one. For one there is just no earthly way that Trent Grisham is not even a top 6 prospect in this system, and Supak is also ridiculously underrated. I know he doesn't have a big swing and miss profile, but with his production he doesn't even crack the top 10? Come on.

It feels like they did this in about 5 minutes, threw in our high draft picks somewhere and moved some guys around a little bit.


Supak is going to get screwed in this deal because he's always profiled as a #5 or maybe #4 starter based on his stuff. Scouts/evaluators will be stuck in that scouting report as long as Supak's K/9 rate remains rather ordinary. It's just the environment we are in. I'm coming around to the idea that he's vastly under-rated and under-valued and he's clearly moved into the "hold" category. As ordinary as the K/9 rate is, his K/BB ratio is just a shade under 4 and that's way more than good enough for me to be pretty excited about him.


There’s parallels in that regard to Brent Suter. For all the Manny Parras of the world who rolled through with hype, a guy like Suter got almost no credit. Say what you want, but he’s a major league pitcher and maybe starter. He knows how to pitch.

I’m not going to make a judgement on Supak because I haven’t studied him beyond his numbers. His lack of a power repertoire may be his undoing as he gets older but we will have to see.

I heard an interview with Tommy John the other day. He’s an old man now and maybe a little angry but one of his themes was in the pre-radar gun era, if you knew how to pitch, you’d do well. He won 288 games.


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#45

Posted: August 02, 2019, 11:42 AM Post
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Bleacher Report updated its system rankings today (post-trade deadline).
Brewers at #29

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/284 ... ine#slide3


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Online  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#46

Posted: August 02, 2019, 7:47 PM Post
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Supak dominating tonight

https://twitter.com/briggsmissions/stat ... 95334?s=21


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Online  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#47

Posted: August 03, 2019, 12:25 AM Post
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Austin Tatious said:
JosephC said:
Supak is going to get screwed in this deal because he's always profiled as a #5 or maybe #4 starter based on his stuff. Scouts/evaluators will be stuck in that scouting report as long as Supak's K/9 rate remains rather ordinary. It's just the environment we are in. I'm coming around to the idea that he's vastly under-rated and under-valued and he's clearly moved into the "hold" category. As ordinary as the K/9 rate is, his K/BB ratio is just a shade under 4 and that's way more than good enough for me to be pretty excited about him.


There’s parallels in that regard to Brent Suter. For all the Manny Parras of the world who rolled through with hype, a guy like Suter got almost no credit. Say what you want, but he’s a major league pitcher and maybe starter. He knows how to pitch.

I’m not going to make a judgement on Supak because I haven’t studied him beyond his numbers. His lack of a power repertoire may be his undoing as he gets older but we will have to see.

I heard an interview with Tommy John the other day. He’s an old man now and maybe a little angry but one of his themes was in the pre-radar gun era, if you knew how to pitch, you’d do well. He won 288 games.


I was higher on Suter than most here when he was in the minors. I note that the Crew is assembling some others like him in Zavolas, Lazar, and Supak. I'll add Roegner, too, even though he's been hurt most of this year.

To me, a high K/BB ratio and a low WHIP are the two stats that will get me excited - especially when someone has both. Yes, I like a high K/9, like from Angel Perdomo (who I'd call a lefty Turnbow), but I like me a Henry Medina, too - 4.00 K/BB and a 0.840 WHIP.

This may be a market inefficiency - teams are scrambling for the fireballers, but guys who can pitch may throw hitters off, especially when they induce grounders and/or soft contact.


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#48

Posted: August 03, 2019, 7:23 AM Post
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There's reason to be optimistic. Looking at the last few drafts - 2016, 2017, and 2018 all have been able to get talent beyond the first couple of rounds.

2016 - Burnes, Brown, Feliciano, P. Henry, Webb. Some of these guys had down years, but the talent is still there. Burnes was drafted only three years ago and he was expected to be a starter in the majors this year.
2017 - B. Francis, A. Bettinger, M. Lazar, D. File. All had breakout seasons this year, and are likely undervalued because they weren't top picks and weren't on the prospect radar before this year. Bettinger is 2nd in the Southern League in K's, Francis 7th. Lazar's K/9 is 3rd among starters in the Midwest League. Their numbers aren't that much different from the Braves highly regarded pitching prospects.
2018 - Ashby, Jarvis, Rasmussen, Andrews, Matulovich. All have either impressed this year or last year. Plus, Garabitos has transitioned to pitching well this year and Brady Schanuel is striking out 17/9 this year - if he can harness some control he can be an elite relief prospect.

Pretty much all pitchers. The top picks were all bats, many of them somewhat high risk/high reward and young for their leagues.


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#49

Posted: August 03, 2019, 5:20 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
There's reason to be optimistic. Looking at the last few drafts - 2016, 2017, and 2018 all have been able to get talent beyond the first couple of rounds.

2016 - Burnes, Brown, Feliciano, P. Henry, Webb. Some of these guys had down years, but the talent is still there. Burnes was drafted only three years ago and he was expected to be a starter in the majors this year.
2017 - B. Francis, A. Bettinger, M. Lazar, D. File. All had breakout seasons this year, and are likely undervalued because they weren't top picks and weren't on the prospect radar before this year. Bettinger is 2nd in the Southern League in K's, Francis 7th. Lazar's K/9 is 3rd among starters in the Midwest League. Their numbers aren't that much different from the Braves highly regarded pitching prospects.
2018 - Ashby, Jarvis, Rasmussen, Andrews, Matulovich. All have either impressed this year or last year. Plus, Garabitos has transitioned to pitching well this year and Brady Schanuel is striking out 17/9 this year - if he can harness some control he can be an elite relief prospect.

Pretty much all pitchers. The top picks were all bats, many of them somewhat high risk/high reward and young for their leagues.


Yep. And while we didn't draft Zavolas, but he's looking pretty good too.

Most of these guys are performing at the A+ level or lower, but the sheer volume of guys performing well should mean a few of them can sustain it and become quality MLB pitchers. Unfortunately they are all 2+ years away. Other than Turang and our catchers (and Grisham and Hiura) we have no position players who look to contribute at the same time though. We'll need to hit on a couple of Hiura like college bats in the next couple of drafts and then fill in from there with FAs and Shaw/Aguilar/Thames kinds of acquisitions.


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#50

Posted: August 04, 2019, 12:11 PM Post
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I went back and looked at the Baseball America top 30 from this past off-season (as it appeared in the Prospect Handbook).

Three players that ranked ahead of Trent Grisham have been since traded (#6 Mauricio Dubon, #20 Marcos Diplan, and #26 Cody Ponce).

Grisham ranked #27 on the Brewers top 30 list with he following passage (book released February of 2019):

Grisham, who used to go by the last name Clark, was considered one of the best prep hitters in the country when the Brewers drafted him in the first round in 2015, but he’s never lived up to that as a pro. He put together a second straight uninspiring season in 2018, this time at Double-A Biloxi after the Brewers tried to challenge him.

Grisham is still trying to find a consistent stroke at the plate. He has a good eye, drawing enough walks each season to produce a respectable OBP (.356 in 2018) but has shown little power while compiling low low batting averages every season. Grisham often is too passive at the plate, taking good pitches and falling behind in the count, leading to too many strikeouts for a hitter of his supposed caliber. When he does choose to swing, he hits enough line drives to make you wonder if power eventually will come, but he also takes an alarming number of noncompetitive swings where he pulls of the ball. Grisham continues to play all three outfield positions, with his average speed and below-average arm fitting best in left field.

Grisham is still young enough to hope he will turn it around, but it’s time for a big season that befits a first-round pick.

It’s been just over six months since the Prospect Handbook was released and Trent Grisham is starting in LF and batting leadoff at Wrigley Field.


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#51

Posted: August 07, 2019, 3:49 PM Post
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Oxy said:
LouisEly said:
There's reason to be optimistic. Looking at the last few drafts - 2016, 2017, and 2018 all have been able to get talent beyond the first couple of rounds.

2016 - Burnes, Brown, Feliciano, P. Henry, Webb. Some of these guys had down years, but the talent is still there. Burnes was drafted only three years ago and he was expected to be a starter in the majors this year.
2017 - B. Francis, A. Bettinger, M. Lazar, D. File. All had breakout seasons this year, and are likely undervalued because they weren't top picks and weren't on the prospect radar before this year. Bettinger is 2nd in the Southern League in K's, Francis 7th. Lazar's K/9 is 3rd among starters in the Midwest League. Their numbers aren't that much different from the Braves highly regarded pitching prospects.
2018 - Ashby, Jarvis, Rasmussen, Andrews, Matulovich. All have either impressed this year or last year. Plus, Garabitos has transitioned to pitching well this year and Brady Schanuel is striking out 17/9 this year - if he can harness some control he can be an elite relief prospect.

Pretty much all pitchers. The top picks were all bats, many of them somewhat high risk/high reward and young for their leagues.


Yep. And while we didn't draft Zavolas, but he's looking pretty good too.

Most of these guys are performing at the A+ level or lower, but the sheer volume of guys performing well should mean a few of them can sustain it and become quality MLB pitchers. Unfortunately they are all 2+ years away. Other than Turang and our catchers (and Grisham and Hiura) we have no position players who look to contribute at the same time though. We'll need to hit on a couple of Hiura like college bats in the next couple of drafts and then fill in from there with FAs and Shaw/Aguilar/Thames kinds of acquisitions.


Totally agree.

Position prospects should probably rank 30th.

But pitching is another story, imo, I’d rank our pitching somewhere in the top 5-10 of all teams. Pitchability is rampant in the brewers farm, numerous pitchers with deception, 4 pitch mix, good offspeed etc. underrated to say the least.


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#52

Posted: August 07, 2019, 10:42 PM Post
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I think we'll be low this offseason, but after next season our system will have a big jump. 2019 draftees, Rasmussen, Turang, Lazar, File, Ashby, and many others will be in line for 2021 roster considerations. And frankly, if Grisham was fairly rated for his age/performance and Hiura and Williams weren't also promoted, our minor league system would look better. Still, we need more hitters to take some steps forward.


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Offline  Re: Baseball America says Brewers minor league system ranks last in MLB.
#53

Posted: August 08, 2019, 9:38 PM Post
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markedman5 said:


Dont look now. Supak was shelled tonight, 10 hits in 5.2 innings, 7 ER for a AAA ERA of 5.71.


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