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Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings

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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#21

Posted: January 24, 2020, 8:53 AM Post
Posts: 12310
reillymcshane said:
The Brewers had no prospect land in Baseball America's Top 100 list for 2020.

Turang and Lutz were in the next 100, but no specific number.

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/1/23/ ... p-100-list


I'm stunned that Feliciano, Small and Ashby aren't even in the top 200. I get that Small's pro sample is virtually nothing, but he was the best pitcher in the best collegiate league. A full season where he moves successfully through multiple levels should get him in the top 100 and if Feliciano can post his high A numbers at AA at age 21, he should be close to top 50.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#22

Posted: January 24, 2020, 9:28 AM Post
Posts: 5033
CheeseheadInQC said:
TJseven7 said:
It's absolutely incredible how many ELITE athletes they have gathered in the OF. They have 6 guys who are capable of being stars if their contact rate elevates or in the case of CRod patience elevates. That's just top 20. There are more further down the list. All of these guys could amount to absolutely nothing but Harrison and Grisham took the same profile and exploded into being highly regarded.

Very interesting group and I think this is the first time outside of Clancy that Hummel has hit a top 20.


There is still a non-zero chance Hummel is Jake Elmore without the defensive value, but he was legitimately one of the most productive hitters in the Southern League last season in his first go around in AA, so that has to count for something. That the power increase happened in AA rather than AAA makes it seem a little more legitimate.


Hummel's numbers have always pointed to him as a very underrated contributor on offense. I see him as a OF/1B/C off the bench at worst - but think his walk rate and power looks a lot like Mickey Tettleton's 1988-1996 seasons.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#23

Posted: January 24, 2020, 9:35 AM Post
Posts: 5033
TJseven7 said:
YoungGeezy1 said:
CRod doesn’t really have a patience problem (yet at least). He doesn’t K at all. His problem is his hand eye coordination is too good for competition.


I get it to a degree but it's really hard for me to get excited about a guy who has 13 walks in 410 AB. Yes, he's putting his bat on everything but swinging at trash is still swinging at trash even if you hit it. It's not going to go for a hit or at the least it's not as likely. Unless his average AB is a crazy 2 pitches or something and he's hitting a ball that's a strike before they can possibly throw 4 balls, I have my concerns.

327/356 is quite the low split for a guy who is about speed, not power. If he was 327/400 now we are dreaming on him and looking into his defense.


Wisconsin, I think will tell the tale. That said, if he is still hot in Wisconsin, I may use him to get a piece at the deadline. This is a profile that can flame out, especially if pitchers figure out how to get him to swing at trash more.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#24

Posted: January 25, 2020, 9:41 PM Post
Posts: 2866
clancyphile said:
Wisconsin, I think will tell the tale. That said, if he is still hot in Wisconsin, I may use him to get a piece at the deadline. This is a profile that can flame out, especially if pitchers figure out how to get him to swing at trash more.


I'm certainly going to be watching his pitch count per AB in Wisconsin. Maybe he's just hitting the first strike he gets but if he's keeping ABs alive by fouling off balls or costing himself outs by softly putting bad pitches in play, then I won't get too excited about him. His GBOs are on the bad side of average.

His speed, contact skills and rumored defense in CF makes him a pretty hard type to wash out. However, controlling the strike zone is the difference between being a 5th OF and being a lead-off man. I'd also like to see him up his SB/CS percentages. Right now he's a fast kid who can't steal bases.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#25

Posted: January 26, 2020, 11:20 AM Post
Posts: 2071
Location: Madison, WI
MLB Pipeline has updated the top 100 and no Brewer on the list.

Have to admit that I'm surprised that these lists are coming out and Small is not #2 on the Brewer's list. Just seemed that all the post draft talk was about Small was overlooked and should have been rated higher...more along the lines of where the Brewers took him and not in the 50-60 range...with talk like that I thought he'd be a solid #2 ahead of Lutz. Lutz is sure getting a ton of mileage off of pre-draft workout(s).


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#26

Posted: January 26, 2020, 11:57 AM Post
Posts: 759
Here is a link to the MLB Pipeline Top 100: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2020?list=prospects

Gotta say I'm very disappointed as this is just not sustainable.

I'm really hoping Small, Lutz, Feliciano take a big step in 2020. With a good year I think both Small and Feliciano could be top 50 by this time next year.

However, ultimately I think Yelich and Hader trades will be needed to re-stock the system.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#27

Posted: January 26, 2020, 12:36 PM Post
Posts: 20382
They're simply not doing good enough in their supplemental to 2nd round picks. Bello, Gray, Lemons, Erceg, they have to do better than this.

They've been doing well in the 1st for the most part, Ray is the only 1st rounder in the Stearns era that looks like a total flop.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#28

Posted: January 26, 2020, 12:39 PM Post
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Posts: 479
adambr2 said:
They're simply not doing good enough in their supplemental to 2nd round picks. Bello, Gray, Lemons, Erceg, they have to do better than this.

They've been doing well in the 1st for the most part, Ray is the only 1st rounder in the Stearns era that looks like a total flop.


Bello and Gray and 19, and Lemons just turned 21. Probably a little early to dig the graves on their careers.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#29

Posted: January 26, 2020, 1:19 PM Post
Posts: 20382
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
adambr2 said:
They're simply not doing good enough in their supplemental to 2nd round picks. Bello, Gray, Lemons, Erceg, they have to do better than this.

They've been doing well in the 1st for the most part, Ray is the only 1st rounder in the Stearns era that looks like a total flop.


Bello and Gray and 19, and Lemons just turned 21. Probably a little early to dig the graves on their careers.


Never said I was. But Lemons has almost 3 professional years under his belt and all of 34 innings to show for it.

And while Gray and Bello may be 19, it's not a great sign to see them overmatched in Rookie ball. But they have a lot of time left.

Lemons is probably getting close to the end, actually. Age aside he probably needs to make some strides in 2020 to be stuck with much longer.

My point was they really haven't gotten much out of their post 1st talent lately aside from Corbin Burnes.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#30

Posted: January 26, 2020, 5:08 PM Post
Posts: 5033
TJseven7 said:
clancyphile said:
Wisconsin, I think will tell the tale. That said, if he is still hot in Wisconsin, I may use him to get a piece at the deadline. This is a profile that can flame out, especially if pitchers figure out how to get him to swing at trash more.


I'm certainly going to be watching his pitch count per AB in Wisconsin. Maybe he's just hitting the first strike he gets but if he's keeping ABs alive by fouling off balls or costing himself outs by softly putting bad pitches in play, then I won't get too excited about him. His GBOs are on the bad side of average.

His speed, contact skills and rumored defense in CF makes him a pretty hard type to wash out. However, controlling the strike zone is the difference between being a 5th OF and being a lead-off man. I'd also like to see him up his SB/CS percentages. Right now he's a fast kid who can't steal bases.


According to the stats, he does seem to be Tony Gwynn minus the ability to draw walks.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... drig026car

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... to01.shtml


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#31

Posted: January 27, 2020, 11:19 PM Post
Posts: 2866
wildcat2237 said:
Gotta say I'm very disappointed as this is just not sustainable.


At the end of 2018 Grisham was 19th in our system and no where near the top 100. Houser was 16th and no where near the top 100. Devin Williams wasn't listed.
At the end of 2017 Peralta was our 9th rated prospect and no where near the top 100.
At the end of 2016 Woodruff was our 25th rated prospect and no where near the top 100.

Also heading into 2016. Brinson was 14th, Diaz was 97th, Harrison was our 16th best prospect and Yamamoto wasn't listed. By the end of 2017 they were worth Yelich.

This system has a way of vaulting someone from off the radar to top 100 in half a year. Then a half a year after that they are graduated. The track record of that looks pretty sustainable. The guys doing the rankings on the other hand look very, well, uninformed. I don't blame them. MiLB is a beast to cover and getting film on the minors must be a complete chore. That doesn't excuse the fact that their rankings aren't worth jack. Their rankings are simply the best options in a sea of guesses.

Guys suck at ranking college football draftees and they are going to play in the NFL the next fall. Film of them is everywhere to be found.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#32

Posted: January 28, 2020, 12:56 PM Post
Posts: 58
Just sharing that Hedbert Perez ranked VERY high on the BA top 100 intl signings from last year. I've been waiting for this ranking as i suspected based on fall writings he was a blow-up guy since July 2... Just thought I'd share. Probably the most excited I've been about one of J2 specs in the stearns era. I also think Jesus Parra will begin to fly up the ranks next year.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#33

Posted: January 28, 2020, 3:46 PM Post
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Posts: 2822
I think another thing to consider is that the Brewers have pursued value at every opportunity under Stearns.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this extends to their valuation of amateur players/prospects.

If the Brewers are intentionally targeting players they believe are underrated by the rest of baseball, that will naturally show up in lower prospect ratings.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#34

Posted: January 29, 2020, 9:54 PM Post
Posts: 5033
sveumrules said:
I think another thing to consider is that the Brewers have pursued value at every opportunity under Stearns.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this extends to their valuation of amateur players/prospects.

If the Brewers are intentionally targeting players they believe are underrated by the rest of baseball, that will naturally show up in lower prospect ratings.


The soft-tossing lefty who knows how to pitch. A high-contact hitter with OBP skills but little power. The guy who will provide a consistent 110 OPS+, rather than a feast-or-famine player...


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#35

Posted: January 30, 2020, 9:34 AM Post
Posts: 5020
TJseven7 said:
wildcat2237 said:
Gotta say I'm very disappointed as this is just not sustainable.


At the end of 2018 Grisham was 19th in our system and no where near the top 100. Houser was 16th and no where near the top 100. Devin Williams wasn't listed.
At the end of 2017 Peralta was our 9th rated prospect and no where near the top 100.
At the end of 2016 Woodruff was our 25th rated prospect and no where near the top 100.

Also heading into 2016. Brinson was 14th, Diaz was 97th, Harrison was our 16th best prospect and Yamamoto wasn't listed. By the end of 2017 they were worth Yelich.

This system has a way of vaulting someone from off the radar to top 100 in half a year. Then a half a year after that they are graduated. The track record of that looks pretty sustainable. The guys doing the rankings on the other hand look very, well, uninformed. I don't blame them. MiLB is a beast to cover and getting film on the minors must be a complete chore. That doesn't excuse the fact that their rankings aren't worth jack. Their rankings are simply the best options in a sea of guesses.

Guys suck at ranking college football draftees and they are going to play in the NFL the next fall. Film of them is everywhere to be found.


This is a great post and observation - Looking back at when the Brewers' system was actually considered among the very best in baseball just 3-4 years ago, almost all the names of prospects who gave the system that level of prestige have amounted to zilch as impact MLB players - several of them were very possibly traded at peak value to get Yelich. Even if Diaz, Harrison, Yamamoto and Brinson wind up making a couple all star game appearances between them during the course of their careers it's a huge win for the Brewers acquiring an MVP. Others were dealt towards the end of their minor league eligibility to help bolster the MLB roster during postseason runs (Ortiz, Phillips, Medeiros, etc).

The minor league system needs to be viewed more as a tool that helps improve the MLB roster and not just as another component of an organization that gets judged separately for how good it is based on rankings services that are too heavily weighed by recent draft positions - some of that comes from drafting/developing quality players internally that wind up contributing at the MLB level. But simply due to the sheer number of prospects, an equally big part is knowing when to improve overall talent in the organization by moving talented prospects with questionable MLB ceilings at their peak value for proven MLB talent.

The current Brewers' system is very young/undeveloped in terms of their top prospect list - partly because collegiate players like Hiura rocketed through the system in such a hurry there wasn't enough time for his true value to influence how an overall system looked on paper. An arm like Rasmussen will never be considered a top 50 prospect due to his age and injury concerns - but everyone knows if he stays healthy he's already a MLB reliever at worst with a pretty high ceiling. A guy like Small isn't yet considered a bigtime prospect because he wasn't throwing high 90's and didn't have enough minor league innings to dominate in higher minor league levels as a college draftee yet. Without even drafting any studs this coming June, I can see their overall system outlook moving into the middle of the league simply from prospects they already have staying healthy and getting another season of development in higher minor league levels that would better establish their potential as MLB contributors.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#36

Posted: January 30, 2020, 9:10 PM Post
Posts: 2866
On top of that. Without saying Arica point to our J2 signings who impacted the ranking of our system? It's really been non-existent. The old rules prevented MKE from buying into that market and the program as a whole wasn't fully committed into it.

They've been committed to that for 2-3 years now. Well those 16-17 year old kids are now 17-20. That's still very young. However you are starting to see CRod, Garcia pop up in the rankings. You see the love fest articles about Medina and Perez. A good number of the top freak prospects that are in the top 100 are J2 19 year olds (in the past bought by CHI BOS and NYY alone) who are blowing up in A/A+. MKE is finally getting a few of those guys in the pipeline. The system being considered "bad" is also the calm before the storm. Some of these DSL kids are about to get noticed in our system. Crod seems to be the engine leading a building train of talent.

I'm not saying Eloy is down there, but they've stacked up some talent down there.
Before
2014 Mailen ranked 28 and Pierre ranked 22nd.
2015 Lara ranked 4th
2016 Pablo Abreu who was ranked 30th.
After
2017 Carlos Rodriguez, of, Venezuela (No. 8 prospect), Larry Ernesto, of, Dominican Republic (No. 26 prospect)
2018 Eduarqui Fernandez, of, Dominican Republic (No. 28 prospect) Branlyn Jaraba, 3b, Colombia (No. 41 prospect) Eduardo Garcia, ss, Venezuela (No. 49 prospect)
2019 Luis Medina, OF, Venezuela (No. 13 prospect) and some are very excited about Hedbert Perez, OF, Venezuela our #2 signing.

The oldest guys in this group are 21. Most haven't hit 20. Some are barely cracking A ball. That's going to pay off in the coming years.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#37

Posted: January 30, 2020, 11:54 PM Post
Posts: 5033
TJseven7 said:
On top of that. Without saying Arica point to our J2 signings who impacted the ranking of our system? It's really been non-existent. The old rules prevented MKE from buying into that market and the program as a whole wasn't fully committed into it.

They've been committed to that for 2-3 years now. Well those 16-17 year old kids are now 17-20. That's still very young. However you are starting to see CRod, Garcia pop up in the rankings. You see the love fest articles about Medina and Perez. A good number of the top freak prospects that are in the top 100 are J2 19 year olds (in the past bought by CHI BOS and NYY alone) who are blowing up in A/A+. MKE is finally getting a few of those guys in the pipeline. The system being considered "bad" is also the calm before the storm. Some of these DSL kids are about to get noticed in our system. Crod seems to be the engine leading a building train of talent.

I'm not saying Eloy is down there, but they've stacked up some talent down there.
Before
2014 Mailen ranked 28 and Pierre ranked 22nd.
2015 Lara ranked 4th
2016 Pablo Abreu who was ranked 30th.
After
2017 Carlos Rodriguez, of, Venezuela (No. 8 prospect), Larry Ernesto, of, Dominican Republic (No. 26 prospect)
2018 Eduarqui Fernandez, of, Dominican Republic (No. 28 prospect) Branlyn Jaraba, 3b, Colombia (No. 41 prospect) Eduardo Garcia, ss, Venezuela (No. 49 prospect)
2019 Luis Medina, OF, Venezuela (No. 13 prospect) and some are very excited about Hedbert Perez, OF, Venezuela our #2 signing.

The oldest guys in this group are 21. Most haven't hit 20. Some are barely cracking A ball. That's going to pay off in the coming years.


I'm a big fan of Aaron Familia...
https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... mili000aar

Even in bad years, lots of walks. Plays third base and first.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#38

Posted: January 31, 2020, 12:43 AM Post
Posts: 2866
That's sure an interesting path he's on. Rough year, great year, rough year, great year. As a 21 year old he needs to pick up the pace this year. A- to A and good results sure would help his prospects.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#39

Posted: January 31, 2020, 7:52 AM Post
Posts: 5033
TJseven7 said:
That's sure an interesting path he's on. Rough year, great year, rough year, great year. As a 21 year old he needs to pick up the pace this year. A- to A and good results sure would help his prospects.


I half-expect a rough year, since it's the jump to full-season ball, but the fact he walks - and that the walks carried over from DSL to Arizona - have me willing to be patient with his development.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#40

Posted: January 31, 2020, 7:22 PM Post
Posts: 2247
What do we all know about Hedbert Perez? We all were able to read a bunch on Medina but all of a sudden Perez’s name is popping up a lot more. Hard to find much on him. Know dad played in MLB and runs a baseball academy in which Hedbert played for. Outside of that, don’t know much about him


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