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Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings

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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#81

Posted: February 27, 2020, 11:53 AM Post
Posts: 5059
KeithStone53151 said:
RollieTime said:
https://www.mlb.com/news/ethan-small-develops-new-pitch

Sounds like Small is working on developing a slider to add to his mix of pitches. If he can learn to throw even an average slider, he could really blossom as a starting pitcher. He already has 3 pretty good offerings.


Yeah I saw this too and agree. He seems like a pretty sharp guy, that type that's able to get the most out of his stuff. A lefty that can mix in 4 pitches and get the best out of them can be a very solid mid rotation guy even if he's only topping out in the 92-94 range.


If he mixes four, I think he's beyond mid-rotation and could top out as a TOR starter. Developments this season could be interesting. Right now he's #9 on my ballot.

At this point, I see Max Lazar as a potential TOR arm, with File a #2 starter. Small could go right into that same level.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#82

Posted: February 28, 2020, 1:13 PM Post
Posts: 5592
Location: New Berlin, WI
clancyphile said:
KeithStone53151 said:
RollieTime said:
https://www.mlb.com/news/ethan-small-develops-new-pitch

Sounds like Small is working on developing a slider to add to his mix of pitches. If he can learn to throw even an average slider, he could really blossom as a starting pitcher. He already has 3 pretty good offerings.


Yeah I saw this too and agree. He seems like a pretty sharp guy, that type that's able to get the most out of his stuff. A lefty that can mix in 4 pitches and get the best out of them can be a very solid mid rotation guy even if he's only topping out in the 92-94 range.


If he mixes four, I think he's beyond mid-rotation and could top out as a TOR starter. Developments this season could be interesting. Right now he's #9 on my ballot.

At this point, I see Max Lazar as a potential TOR arm, with File a #2 starter. Small could go right into that same level.


Noted above, Small has 3 pretty good offerings. None of his offerings have much plus potential except maybe the changeup. The type of comp you're looking at is Marco Gonzalez. Small might throw a bit harder, but I don't think his changeup will be as good. Regardless, there's no arguing that Gonzalez is TOR. He would fit in great as the 3rd or 4th starter on a contender or 2nd starter on a second division team, but not TOR.

I need to learn more about what Lazar throws, but I'm not going to get excited about a guy that throws upper 80s and is getting 20-22 year olds out in A ball. At the lower levels, stuff matters to me much more than results. If he's posting the eye popping k/9 and bb/9 numbers in AA, I'll start believing in him a bit more. Until then, or until I hear that he throws a knuckleball or at least one true plus secondary offering...he's not top 30 for me, not even close.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#83

Posted: March 02, 2020, 10:02 AM Post
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Posts: 1691
DFL in Keith Law's Farm System Rankings: https://theathletic.com/1641139/2020/03 ... mlb-teams/


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#84

Posted: March 02, 2020, 1:19 PM Post
Posts: 1300
Location: Ohio
Among the free content items, the MiLB website has started posted is combined organization rankings.

https://www.milb.com/news/minor-league- ... -312914490

Unlike other farm ranking sources, this group (Sam Dykstra & Co.) will also show breakdown of system strength relative to pitching prospects & position prospects.

Unfortunately in their opinion, the Brewers have a long way to go on each side as well as overall.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#85

Posted: March 04, 2020, 12:41 PM Post
Posts: 5592
Location: New Berlin, WI
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/brewers/

Pipeline posted their top 30. Biggest surprise to me is Feliciano coming in at number 3.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#86

Posted: March 04, 2020, 2:47 PM Post
Posts: 22
Location: Dubuque, IA
Jeferson Quero at 17.... huh that's new


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#87

Posted: March 04, 2020, 5:31 PM Post
Posts: 2866
Lots of DSL kids shooting up the ranks, without doing much.

Hello File in the top 30. Dangerously placed at 24. (see Peralta Woodruff) This pipeline release basically locks one of File Bettinger or Lazar into the top 6 prospect in our farm by July.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#88

Posted: March 04, 2020, 8:35 PM Post
Posts: 22
Location: Dubuque, IA
Honestly, I used to wait for mlb pipelines lists to come out each year but I’m finally beginning to realize how little their “expert” opinions make of a difference. Every single list that comes out is just a shot in the dark and a best guess based on the prospect’s pedigree. I personally did not have Jeferson Quero in my Brewers Top 100 Prospects list and I don’t think that was a mistake. While it would be a safe bet to put every single catcher in the system on my list, purely based on the importance of the position, why, in theory, would Quero be ranked higher than guys like Max McDowell ever was simply because we don’t know what they are capable of yet. Maybe I sound like an idiot, I mean I’m obviously not arguing against guys like Hedbert or Medina, but Jeferson Quero? Cmon mlb pipeline.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#89

Posted: March 04, 2020, 9:21 PM Post
Posts: 5059
TJseven7 said:
Lots of DSL kids shooting up the ranks, without doing much.

Hello File in the top 30. Dangerously placed at 24. (see Peralta Woodruff) This pipeline release basically locks one of File Bettinger or Lazar into the top 6 prospect in our farm by July.


It's a long way from the DSL to MLB... and it can take a while for the players to really develop.

I think File and Lazar are the two pitchers most likely to emerge as TOR arms. The former has four good pitches and control - and reminds me a little of Greg Maddux in that regard. Maddux didn't blow people away, but he managed to induce weak contact and avoid the gopher ball.

Lazar is something else. He has the control, and he already gets results. So, what happens if the fastball goes up a few ticks?

This is not to say Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby are scrubs, but File and Lazar have some real results.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#90

Posted: March 04, 2020, 9:39 PM Post
Posts: 2866
ARobsBrewCrew said:
Honestly, I used to wait for mlb pipelines lists to come out each year but I’m finally beginning to realize how little their “expert” opinions make of a difference. Every single list that comes out is just a shot in the dark and a best guess based on the prospect’s pedigree. I personally did not have Jeferson Quero in my Brewers Top 100 Prospects list and I don’t think that was a mistake. While it would be a safe bet to put every single catcher in the system on my list, purely based on the importance of the position, why, in theory, would Quero be ranked higher than guys like Max McDowell ever was simply because we don’t know what they are capable of yet. Maybe I sound like an idiot, I mean I’m obviously not arguing against guys like Hedbert or Medina, but Jeferson Quero? Cmon mlb pipeline.


Well, they tend to get excited about guys who have those size speed numbers in the DSL.
Um, 5'10 165 run grade 40?
Well, they tend to get excited about J2s who get paid a 7 figure deal.
Um, 200K bonus?
Well, they tend to get excited about guys who put up some big results from the jump.
Um, he hasn't played?

He might play C but this sure is out of LF.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#91

Posted: March 04, 2020, 10:06 PM Post
Posts: 22
Location: Dubuque, IA
TJseven7 said:
ARobsBrewCrew said:
Honestly, I used to wait for mlb pipelines lists to come out each year but I’m finally beginning to realize how little their “expert” opinions make of a difference. Every single list that comes out is just a shot in the dark and a best guess based on the prospect’s pedigree. I personally did not have Jeferson Quero in my Brewers Top 100 Prospects list and I don’t think that was a mistake. While it would be a safe bet to put every single catcher in the system on my list, purely based on the importance of the position, why, in theory, would Quero be ranked higher than guys like Max McDowell ever was simply because we don’t know what they are capable of yet. Maybe I sound like an idiot, I mean I’m obviously not arguing against guys like Hedbert or Medina, but Jeferson Quero? Cmon mlb pipeline.


Well, they tend to get excited about guys who have those size speed numbers in the DSL.
Um, 5'10 165 run grade 40?
Well, they tend to get excited about J2s who get paid a 7 figure deal.
Um, 200K bonus?
Well, they tend to get excited about guys who put up some big results from the jump.
Um, he hasn't played?

He might play C but this sure is out of LF.


Jeferson Quero prove us wrong!


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#92

Posted: March 04, 2020, 10:12 PM Post
Posts: 2866
ARobsBrewCrew said:
Jeferson Quero prove us wrong!


It's not right or wrong. It's that this is an insanely aggressive optimistic placement in the rankings. He could be great, he could be nothing, I don't know, I'm sure they don't either.

You can't really criticize a guess but it's a really risky guess.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#93

Posted: March 04, 2020, 10:17 PM Post
Posts: 2252
I really can’t say much on if a DSL kid is worth being ranked so high. My whole opinion on them is small blurbs, size data, small sample sizes, and occasional videos. All these sites have more access to scouts and ability to find out a little more on these kids. So they must of heard something worth being excited for. Could just be pulling names out of a hat. Who knows. Maybe we have a Soto or maybe we have an Arizona flame out.

Overall we need to hit on some of these DSL kids and hope some picks start to blossom. Turang, Lutz, Feliciano, Ashby, and Small need to have big years. They are all going to be in AA or Carolina (Turang & Small to start) which is usually the year prospects are made (unless high pick with a over valued name).


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#94

Posted: March 04, 2020, 11:10 PM Post
Posts: 467
Quero shouldn't be a huge shock. He has kind of separated himself as the No. 3 July 2 signing of the Brewers last year, as least as far as lists such as this go. He made Baseball America's list as well. He also was one of four July 2 signings to be brought over for minor league camp in Arizona this spring (well five, but I am guessing one was because he was from Curacao).

Is the hype warranted? Who knows. It would make more sense if the list was more consistently upside based. Having him there and then Taylor at 21 when the writeup caps his ceiling as a fourth outfielder seems weird.

The biggest surprise for me (other maybe than Kahle being as high as he is, although that's not entirely shocking either) was that Abreu stayed in the top 30. Although given that I've got him even higher it was a surprise I am completely OK with.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#95

Posted: March 05, 2020, 1:17 AM Post
Posts: 5059
CheeseheadInQC said:
Quero shouldn't be a huge shock. He has kind of separated himself as the No. 3 July 2 signing of the Brewers last year, as least as far as lists such as this go. He made Baseball America's list as well. He also was one of four July 2 signings to be brought over for minor league camp in Arizona this spring (well five, but I am guessing one was because he was from Curacao).

Is the hype warranted? Who knows. It would make more sense if the list was more consistently upside based. Having him there and then Taylor at 21 when the writeup caps his ceiling as a fourth outfielder seems weird.

The biggest surprise for me (other maybe than Kahle being as high as he is, although that's not entirely shocking either) was that Abreu stayed in the top 30. Although given that I've got him even higher it was a surprise I am completely OK with.


Some players are prospects with a high ceiling. The DSL signees, for instance.

Others, like Taylor, are prospects because they have either a high floor or have closer proximity to the majors.

In my ballot, I voted Drew Rasmussen #1 because I felt he could be an impact multi-inning reliever with the Brewers bullpen this year. He reached AA last year.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#96

Posted: March 05, 2020, 5:58 AM Post
Posts: 2866
clancyphile said:
Some players are prospects with a high ceiling. The DSL signees, for instance.

Others, like Taylor, are prospects because they have either a high floor or have closer proximity to the majors.

In my ballot, I voted Drew Rasmussen #1 because I felt he could be an impact multi-inning reliever with the Brewers bullpen this year. He reached AA last year.


High floor guys are worthless or end up in AAAA. For instance, Arcia last year was a high floor guy by farm standards.

The word is they are going to give Rasmussen a SP gig again this year. No idea why.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#97

Posted: March 05, 2020, 8:03 AM Post
Posts: 3089
KeithStone53151 said:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/brewers/

Pipeline posted their top 30. Biggest surprise to me is Feliciano coming in at number 3.

Keith Law has him at number 2. It is a pay site but his top 5 is Turang/Feliciano/Brown/Smal/Ashby. Kind of surprised he still has Brown at 3 but he still only thinks of him as a back end starter. There are other guys like Ray/Taylor/Erceg that are higher ranked by Law than others but he still doesn't think much of them so kind of indicative of the farm as a whole.

Unlike Pipeline that has Perez/Medina/Quero in their top 20, Law has none in his top 20.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#98

Posted: March 05, 2020, 1:46 PM Post
Posts: 5059
TJseven7 said:
clancyphile said:
Some players are prospects with a high ceiling. The DSL signees, for instance.

Others, like Taylor, are prospects because they have either a high floor or have closer proximity to the majors.

In my ballot, I voted Drew Rasmussen #1 because I felt he could be an impact multi-inning reliever with the Brewers bullpen this year. He reached AA last year.


High floor guys are worthless or end up in AAAA. For instance, Arcia last year was a high floor guy by farm standards.

The word is they are going to give Rasmussen a SP gig again this year. No idea why.


If they come from the farm, you're paying them the minimum. Beats having to get them at twice the price in free agency.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
#99

Posted: March 05, 2020, 3:31 PM Post
Posts: 2866
clancyphile said:
If they come from the farm, you're paying them the minimum. Beats having to get them at twice the price in free agency.


Mathius Rodriguez Aguilar Guerra types are also on the chopping block of other teams, they are cheap as well. High floor is a complete waste of time and the cost savings aspect of it is overblown because there are other high floor guys who get cut in the numbers game.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings
Posted: March 06, 2020, 12:22 AM Post
Posts: 99
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
TJseven7 said:
ARobsBrewCrew said:
Jeferson Quero prove us wrong!


It's not right or wrong. It's that this is an insanely aggressive optimistic placement in the rankings. He could be great, he could be nothing, I don't know, I'm sure they don't either.

You can't really criticize a guess but it's a really risky guess.

Haven’t submitted my list for the sites top 25 yet but he has been slotted at 19 while I've thrown it together a bit. The Baseball America write up was really, really nice. The little video they posted showed a very solid build, swing and throwing arm too. I don’t think this is too crazy honestly. Not to mention Tom Flanagan specifically mentioned him as a guy they had really liked post-signing, on (I believe) Matt Pauley's show later last year.

Edit: woke up this morning and suddenly remembered that it was Lane Grindles show lol


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