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Top Brewers Prospects by Position

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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#21

Posted: January 07, 2020, 2:59 PM Post
Posts: 454
The issue with Sunitsch as a starter stats-wise is that his splits are pretty severe. Given that he's not some still green high school pitcher, I'm not sure that is something that is going to go away as a starter. The jump in K's last year and dominance of lefties make him interesting, I just don't think it does as a starter. You often cite Suter, and he was pretty much the opposite: He didn't have problems getting righties out as he moved through the system, sometimes posting reverse splits.

Like I said in a previous post, he intrigues me as a reliever. If the K rate stays up (or rises moving to the pen) and his stuff plays up more against righties only having to face them once out of the pen, maybe you have something.

As for Devanney, I'd have no problem with him being listed third behind Garcia. The other options whose primary position was shortstop who played stateside for the Brewers last season and are still with the organization: Hairston, Pinero, Castillo, Pitre. Even in the DSL, Jaraba and Roa played more third than short. Unless you're a big Ponce de Leon or Ferrer fan, the third spot comes down to how much do you trust Hamilton coming back from injury. I'd put him third, but I can understand if someone is skeptical.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#22

Posted: January 07, 2020, 3:10 PM Post
Posts: 2812
BTW, cuz this has been bothering me.

Kahle 5th (mostly due to DHing).

Did he really DH an exorbitant amount with MKE? He got 1/3 of the AB of Fry and caught 1/3 of the innings. He got bumped to Carolina played 2 games and caught both.

MKE isn't an AL team. He's basically been C only or am I missing something? Personally I have Fry at 1b/3b due to age but have Kahle in the top 3 Cs. He's 2 years younger.


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Online  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#23

Posted: January 07, 2020, 3:16 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
Devanney might hit .260, but he will still generate walks, but he'll be a 20-25 HR player st shortstop.


Last year there were 11 players that hit 20 home runs as a SS.

In 2018 there were 6. In 2016 & 2017 there were 9 each season.

SS that project to hit 20 HR don't typically make it until the 15th round of the draft.

In three seasons (626 PAs) using a metal bat against Colonial Athletic Association pitching he only hit 20 HR.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#24

Posted: January 07, 2020, 5:06 PM Post
Posts: 4982
sveumrules said:
clancyphile said:
Devanney might hit .260, but he will still generate walks, but he'll be a 20-25 HR player st shortstop.


Last year there were 11 players that hit 20 home runs as a SS.

In 2018 there were 6. In 2016 & 2017 there were 9 each season.

SS that project to hit 20 HR don't typically make it until the 15th round of the draft.

In three seasons (626 PAs) using a metal bat against Colonial Athletic Association pitching he only hit 20 HR.


https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... vann000cam

In 220 ABs between Arizona Brewers Blue and the Rocky Mountain Vibe, he had 7 HR and 12 doubles. That translates to 17 homers and 30 doubles in 550 ABs. He drew 28 walks in 260 PAs and went 17-for-25 in SBs.

Now, with the Vibe his slash was .246/.348/.456 - an .804 OPS - in 114 ABs.

For me, the question will be how he adapts to full-season pro ball in Wisconsin. Maybe he goes to Carolina if the Crew decides to start Turang in Biloxi, but I think he's the starting SS for the Timber Rattlers.


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Online  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#25

Posted: January 07, 2020, 5:40 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
In 220 ABs between Arizona Brewers Blue and the Rocky Mountain Vibe, he had 7 HR and 12 doubles. That translates to 17 homers and 30 doubles in 550 ABs. He drew 28 walks in 260 PAs and went 17-for-25 in SBs.


There's a HUGE difference between being on pace for 17 HR while in leagues where he is two years older/more experienced than the average player & hitting 20-25 HR if he ever even makes it to MLB.

28 walks in 260 plate appearances for a 22 year old in rookie ball is nothing impressive. Among 150 players in domestic rookie leagues with at least 200 PAs, Cam's walk rate ranked 48th.

17 for 25 (68% success rate) on SBs is also pretty pedestrian when you consider how much older/more advanced Devanney is compared to his competition. As he moves up & faces better batteries he will likely run less & less (especially if he's still getting thrown out over 30% of the time.)


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#26

Posted: January 07, 2020, 5:55 PM Post
Posts: 1098
If you're going to be making a stats-only evaluation of prospects, it has to take into account things like age and experience (As proxies for physical development and room for growth) and quality of opposition. Ignoring both that aspect as well as scouting is what gets you Cam Roegner as the #1 overall prospect in ths system ahead of Keston Hiura. Or Tristen Lutz at #38. It wouldn't really bother me if it was at least consistently about the stats, but it isn't that either. Everyone is free to rank prospects in whatever manner they want to, it's just useful to know which rankings are more of a wishlist than an attempt at an objective (as objective as an individual can get) ranking.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#27

Posted: January 07, 2020, 6:33 PM Post
Posts: 3905
Lathund said:
If you're going to be making a stats-only evaluation of prospects, it has to take into account things like age and experience (As proxies for physical development and room for growth) and quality of opposition. Ignoring both that aspect as well as scouting is what gets you Cam Roegner as the #1 overall prospect in ths system ahead of Keston Hiura. Or Tristen Lutz at #38. It wouldn't really bother me if it was at least consistently about the stats, but it isn't that either. Everyone is free to rank prospects in whatever manner they want to, it's just useful to know which rankings are more of a wishlist than an attempt at an objective (as objective as an individual can get) ranking.

As was stated everyone is entitled to make their own list but this post pretty much sums up why I believe Clancy's lists are useless. You simply cannot ignore scouting, actual talent and upside. Yes, he guessed right on Suter and has spent every minute since trying to replicate that guess with wild swings at players that have zero chance at playing in the major leagues. His lists aren't so much rankings as they are "favorites for diamonds in the rough" guesses. It's more than just looking at the back of a baseball card and those three deeps are just an opinion.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#28

Posted: January 07, 2020, 6:46 PM Post
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I was at a youth Baseball coaches conference (ABCA) in Nashville over the weekend and I was talking to a college coach/pitching instructor who tells me LHP Antoine Kelly is the real deal and will be the Brewers top prospect this year or in the very near future. Top of the rotation kind of guy who just needs to polish his secondary pitches. So, I would rank Kelly, Small and then Ashby for LH Starters..


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#29

Posted: January 07, 2020, 6:57 PM Post
Posts: 2812
Yount19 said:
who just needs to polish his secondary pitches.


I highly doubt MKE gets him where they got him if that was the case. Most reports state that he needs to create secondary pitches because they aren't close.

His arm talent being the real deal is widely known. Guy's a freak. But he's basically FB only with a slider that needs a lot more than polish.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#30

Posted: January 07, 2020, 7:14 PM Post
Posts: 4982
TJseven7 said:
Yount19 said:
who just needs to polish his secondary pitches.


I highly doubt MKE gets him where they got him if that was the case. Most reports state that he needs to create secondary pitches because they aren't close.

His arm talent being the real deal is widely known. Guy's a freak. But he's basically FB only with a slider that needs a lot more than polish.


He was picked 65th overall.

Initial results from the Arizona Brewers Blue looked very promising. A 1.6 BB/9. Even if you count the one start in Wisconsin, he had a 2.6 BB/9.

He could be a TOR/ace starter, and trying to develop him as one is a gamble. The sure thing? Make him a relief pitcher - maybe even Hader's successor.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#31

Posted: January 07, 2020, 10:45 PM Post
Posts: 2812
Right but if he was a small tweak away on his secondary offerings his "god reached down and made his left arm a thunderbolt" arm talent would have put him in the top 10. He's an incredibly exciting talent to watch but he needs a lot more than polish on those secondary offerings. He's young, that's fine but let's just be honest about it.

All the reports echo the same thing. Hose of an arm. Better FB control than you'd expect from a guy with his frame at this point. Slider has potential but isn't close to MLB ready. No other pitch. Right now he's got nasty velocity coming from the LH side. He's got an easy projection to the pen. Easy. Just like Hader and Peralta, you can't start on a FB alone. TOR/ace, let's get a 2nd plus pitch first. If he can plus plus FB and plus slider with location now we are on to something.

Dream but don't overstate. He should be considered the #1 LHRP in the system today. Not that you push him into that role but system wide he's the best one and right now his profile puts his MLB expectation at LHRP.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#32

Posted: January 08, 2020, 12:27 AM Post
Posts: 4982
TJseven7 said:
Right but if he was a small tweak away on his secondary offerings his "god reached down and made his left arm a thunderbolt" arm talent would have put him in the top 10. He's an incredibly exciting talent to watch but he needs a lot more than polish on those secondary offerings. He's young, that's fine but let's just be honest about it.

All the reports echo the same thing. Hose of an arm. Better FB control than you'd expect from a guy with his frame at this point. Slider has potential but isn't close to MLB ready. No other pitch. Right now he's got nasty velocity coming from the LH side. He's got an easy projection to the pen. Easy. Just like Hader and Peralta, you can't start on a FB alone. TOR/ace, let's get a 2nd plus pitch first. If he can plus plus FB and plus slider with location now we are on to something.

Dream but don't overstate. He should be considered the #1 LHRP in the system today. Not that you push him into that role but system wide he's the best one and right now his profile puts his MLB expectation at LHRP.


Exactly. As a starter, he's got some potential, but he's only going about 3 IP per start. Now, that, IMO, is putting him in Hader "fireman" territory in the majors.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#33

Posted: January 08, 2020, 8:13 AM Post
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clancyphile said:
TJseven7 said:
Right but if he was a small tweak away on his secondary offerings his "god reached down and made his left arm a thunderbolt" arm talent would have put him in the top 10. He's an incredibly exciting talent to watch but he needs a lot more than polish on those secondary offerings. He's young, that's fine but let's just be honest about it.

All the reports echo the same thing. Hose of an arm. Better FB control than you'd expect from a guy with his frame at this point. Slider has potential but isn't close to MLB ready. No other pitch. Right now he's got nasty velocity coming from the LH side. He's got an easy projection to the pen. Easy. Just like Hader and Peralta, you can't start on a FB alone. TOR/ace, let's get a 2nd plus pitch first. If he can plus plus FB and plus slider with location now we are on to something.

Dream but don't overstate. He should be considered the #1 LHRP in the system today. Not that you push him into that role but system wide he's the best one and right now his profile puts his MLB expectation at LHRP.


Exactly. As a starter, he's got some potential, but he's only going about 3 IP per start. Now, that, IMO, is putting him in Hader "fireman" territory in the majors.


With Josh Hader, you are witnessing the best Brewers reliever since Rollie Fingers. There won't be another Josh Hader and talking about "Hader's replacement" or "the next Hader" is simply wishful thinking and a waste of time.


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Online  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#34

Posted: January 08, 2020, 9:26 AM Post
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I hope we can get some future starters from this group in the Minor Currently because that the one real way this team can compete.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#35

Posted: January 08, 2020, 9:28 AM Post
Posts: 4982
TJseven7 said:
BTW, cuz this has been bothering me.

Kahle 5th (mostly due to DHing).

Did he really DH an exorbitant amount with MKE? He got 1/3 of the AB of Fry and caught 1/3 of the innings. He got bumped to Carolina played 2 games and caught both.

MKE isn't an AL team. He's basically been C only or am I missing something? Personally I have Fry at 1b/3b due to age but have Kahle in the top 3 Cs. He's 2 years younger.


Per Baseball-Reference, Kahle DHed 23 games, caught in 19, and had single games at 1B and 2B.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/team ... ting.shtml

(This is the organizational depth chart).


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#36

Posted: January 08, 2020, 9:36 AM Post
Posts: 4976
brewmann04 said:
I hope we can get some future starters from this group in the Minor Currently because that the one real way this team can compete.


Generally agreed, and the Brewers have developed and will continue developing starters to their staff. Woodruff, Suter, Nelson until he unfortunately got injured - I still hold out hope that at least one of Burnes or Peralta will primarily be an effective starter for them. To me the strength of the Brewers' system over the past couple years has been how they've added a bunch of pitching depth - developing pitching is a numbers game more than anything else, and Stearns' group seems to have a focus on that after taking over a system that was basically devoid of pitching talent just 4 seasons ago.

Plus, they've been competitive 3 of the 4 seasons Stearns has been GM operating how he has been going. I'm all for continuing that trend.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#37

Posted: January 08, 2020, 10:17 AM Post
Posts: 4982
Fear The Chorizo said:
brewmann04 said:
I hope we can get some future starters from this group in the Minor Currently because that the one real way this team can compete.


Generally agreed, and the Brewers have developed and will continue developing starters to their staff. Woodruff, Suter, Nelson until he unfortunately got injured - I still hold out hope that at least one of Burnes or Peralta will primarily be an effective starter for them. To me the strength of the Brewers' system over the past couple years has been how they've added a bunch of pitching depth - developing pitching is a numbers game more than anything else, and Stearns' group seems to have a focus on that after taking over a system that was basically devoid of pitching talent just 4 seasons ago.

Plus, they've been competitive 3 of the 4 seasons Stearns has been GM operating how he has been going. I'm all for continuing that trend.


Exactly. The numbers also provide options for trading to fill holes.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#38

Posted: January 08, 2020, 12:07 PM Post
Posts: 2812
clancyphile said:
Per Baseball-Reference, Kahle DHed 23 games, caught in 19, and had single games at 1B and 2B.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/team ... ting.shtml

(This is the organizational depth chart).


That's a split time C gig like most of the Milb Cs get. I'd still comfortably call him a C. I'd bump Fry and he'd be in the top 3.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#39

Posted: January 08, 2020, 12:10 PM Post
Posts: 2812
TigerUppercut said:
With Josh Hader, you are witnessing the best Brewers reliever since Rollie Fingers. There won't be another Josh Hader and talking about "Hader's replacement" or "the next Hader" is simply wishful thinking and a waste of time.


The 2 IP wipe out stuff Hader does makes him special of course. That's not to say there are no other guys putting up silly numbers as a LH fireballer.

I look at Antoine Kelly and I hope for Felipe Vazquez. That dude is also a monster. Kelly is regularly hitting 100 just like Vazquez but he needs that slider to improve. I'd love for him to be a starter but I'd have him LHRP 1 right now because of this.


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Offline  Re: Top Brewers Prospects by Position
#40

Posted: January 08, 2020, 12:40 PM Post
Posts: 3905
clancyphile said:
TJseven7 said:
BTW, cuz this has been bothering me.

Kahle 5th (mostly due to DHing).

Did he really DH an exorbitant amount with MKE? He got 1/3 of the AB of Fry and caught 1/3 of the innings. He got bumped to Carolina played 2 games and caught both.

MKE isn't an AL team. He's basically been C only or am I missing something? Personally I have Fry at 1b/3b due to age but have Kahle in the top 3 Cs. He's 2 years younger.


Per Baseball-Reference, Kahle DHed 23 games, caught in 19, and had single games at 1B and 2B.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/team ... ting.shtml

(This is the organizational depth chart).

So what? Therein lies the problem with your flawed evaluation methods, you think everything you need to know is on a B-Ref page. What do the actual scouting reports say about his ability to stick behind the plate? The Brewers basically split time catchers all through the low minor leagues. This isn't anything new.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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