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Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)

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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#21

Posted: December 16, 2020, 12:01 PM Post
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Manty Brewer Fan said:
Baseball America has their Brewers Top 10 up. Seems like they're starting to turn the corner into seeing the brewers minors as making progress up the ranks. Some of there stuff on the individual top 10 are pretty glowing. Pretty impressive even that a guy like Eduardo Garcia didn't stay in top 10. Also missing from previous years top 10 are Corey Ray, Tristen Lutz and Zack Brown.


I agree. I like where our system is headed and that doesn’t even include the fact that they’ll have 3 of the top 50 picks in the ‘21 draft. Our international signings look promising too. I certainly wouldn’t rank our system dead last anymore.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#22

Posted: December 16, 2020, 3:18 PM Post
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Ben Badler with Baseball America held a chat today and had very high praise for Antoine Kelly saying he was the Brewers most impressive pitcher at their alternate site. Fastball in the 93 - 97 range that topped out at 98 with a plus slider and average changeup. Could soon make the top 100 list. So that’s exciting.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#23

Posted: December 16, 2020, 6:34 PM Post
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Location: Wauwatosa, WI
Here's the link to the chat mentioned above. The answer he gave about Jeferson Quero is really exciting along with the Kelly one and some other great tidbits. Definitely recommend.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#24

Posted: December 16, 2020, 7:32 PM Post
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Not shocked by Kelly's placement. He was probably looked at as having the highest upside among the system's pitchers going into 2020 and he clearly really impressed them at the alternate site.

Quero is intriguing. This has become the most-hyped international signing class possibly in Brewers history and they haven't even played an official game yet. It will be interesting to see how these catching prospects develop. You could make a case that nine of the Brewers' top-50 prospects are at that position.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#25

Posted: December 16, 2020, 8:45 PM Post
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I assume Mitchell and Turang were 1 & 2 for BA? What did the rest look like?

Formerly BrewCrewIn2004

@IgnitorKid


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#26

Posted: December 16, 2020, 10:37 PM Post
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Well, I don't have a membership, but they had this in the free area that I found interesting:

Here's how we project their lineup in 2024, with their 2024 age in parentheses.

Catcher: Jacob Nottingham (29)
First Base: Keston Hiura (27)
Second Base: Brice Turang (24)
Third Base: Luis Urias (27)
Shortstop: Orlando Arcia (29)
Left Field: Christian Yelich (32)
Center Field: Garrett Mitchell (25)
Right Field: Hedbert Perez (21)
Designated Hitter: Dan Vogelbach (31)

No. 1 Starter: Brandon Woodruff (31)
No. 2 Starter: Corbin Burnes (29)
No. 3 Starter: Antoine Kelly (24)
No. 4 Starter: Adrian Houser (31)
No. 5 Starter: Ethan Small (27)
Closer: Devin Williams (29)


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#27

Posted: December 16, 2020, 10:45 PM Post
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BrewCrewForever said:
I assume Mitchell and Turang were 1 & 2 for BA? What did the rest look like?

Turang, Mitchell, Perez, Kelly, Small, Zamora, Feliciano, Ashby, Warren, Quero. Badler mentioned Eduardo Garcia just missed the top ten. Badler also said there is a tier drop off after Kelly at #4. Mentioned that Kelly versus Hedbert for the #3 spot is debatable.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#28

Posted: December 17, 2020, 8:09 AM Post
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Thanks Eye Black. Really excited for those top four. Still high on Small, Feliciano and Ashby to.

Formerly BrewCrewIn2004

@IgnitorKid


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#29

Posted: December 17, 2020, 4:20 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
BrewCrewForever said:
I assume Mitchell and Turang were 1 & 2 for BA? What did the rest look like?

Turang, Mitchell, Perez, Kelly, Small, Zamora, Feliciano, Ashby, Warren, Quero. Badler mentioned Eduardo Garcia just missed the top ten. Badler also said there is a tier drop off after Kelly at #4. Mentioned that Kelly versus Hedbert for the #3 spot is debatable.


Wow, they're much higher on Perez than I thought. Considering that he's already #3 in the system at age 17, the sky seems to be the limit for this kid.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#30

Posted: December 17, 2020, 4:38 PM Post
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This is both an exciting and high variance group. Only three of the names on that list have completed a full season of minor league baseball.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#31

Posted: December 17, 2020, 5:10 PM Post
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narwhalattack said:
Eye Black said:
BrewCrewForever said:
I assume Mitchell and Turang were 1 & 2 for BA? What did the rest look like?

Turang, Mitchell, Perez, Kelly, Small, Zamora, Feliciano, Ashby, Warren, Quero. Badler mentioned Eduardo Garcia just missed the top ten. Badler also said there is a tier drop off after Kelly at #4. Mentioned that Kelly versus Hedbert for the #3 spot is debatable.


Wow, they're much higher on Perez than I thought. Considering that he's already #3 in the system at age 17, the sky seems to be the limit for this kid.



I'm feeling pretty good about being the only one to put Hedbert at #1 in the BF poll last spring.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#32

Posted: December 20, 2020, 8:42 AM Post
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The question I have is how many of these guys will play for the Brewers? We seem to trade a lot of these young prospects for help when we are in the hunt. Like many teams do. Do we constantly build up our system to trade it or have young guys play in Milwaukee?


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#33

Posted: December 21, 2020, 8:17 AM Post
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Baseball Prospectus' Brewers Prospects ranking was released today. I believe you need to be a subscriber for the full writeups, but the ranking is

1. Brice Turang, SS
2. Garrett Mitchell, OF
3. Aaron Ashby, LHP
4. Ethan Small, LHP
5. Mario Feliciano, C
6. Tristen Lutz, OF
7. Antoine Kelly, LHP
8. Freddy Zamora, SS
9. Carlos Rodriguez, OF
10. Hedbert Perez, OF

Warren and E. Garcia are the two other prospects mentioned below.

The way the blurbs are written, it sounds like they feel pretty confident about what they report from the alternate site, though that could just be me reading too much into the wording. Among that is that Ashby's biggest issue, command, seems to have improved a fair bit, and that Ashby and Small were standouts there and are both given mid-late 2021 ETAs. Positive things about Felicianos contact skills; they really like his bat. They predict Perez will soar up the rankings, but are naturally cautious about a guy who hasn't played a single professional game yet.

Generally, there are fewer snarky comments about how bad the system is compared to last year, so I think things are moving in the right direction!


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#34

Posted: December 21, 2020, 10:51 AM Post
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Soupbone said:
The question I have is how many of these guys will play for the Brewers? We seem to trade a lot of these young prospects for help when we are in the hunt. Like many teams do. Do we constantly build up our system to trade it or have young guys play in Milwaukee?


That's a good question. Obviously the rankings vary slightly from list to list, but the BF.net Top 25's are easily accessible & we should theoretically as fans of primarily one team have a pretty good handle on our own guys, though Devin Williams #16 pre-2020 & Trent Grisham #18 pre-2019 were pretty big collective whiffs on our parts.

Looking back on some recent past lists here are how they have shaken out...

2015 Top 10: Arcia, T. Taylor, Jungmann, T. Williams, D. Williams (MLB) Harrison, Lara, Medeiros, Wagner (traded) Coulter (zilch)

2016 Top 10: Arcia, Hader, Nottingham (MLB) Phillips, Lopez, Grisham, Lara, Medeiros, Diaz, Ponce (traded)

2017 Top 10: Hader, Woodruff (MLB) Brinson, Diaz, Ortiz, Grisham, Dubon (traded) Ray (still prospect, hopefully) Erceg, Diplan (zilch)

2018 Top 10: Hiura, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, T. Williams (MLB) Grisham, Ortiz, Phillips (traded) Lutz (still prospect) Erceg (zilch)

With the exception of Grisham, Stearns & company have pretty much got every evaluation right when it comes to which highly regarded guys to keep (Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Hiura) versus which highly regarded guys to deal (Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, Ortiz, Phillips).

Taking a totally wild guess at the BPro list I will say...

Mitchell, Ashby, Small, Feliciano, Kelly, Perez (MLB) Turang, Lutz, Zamora (traded) Rodriguez (zilch)


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#35

Posted: December 21, 2020, 12:19 PM Post
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Surprised Lutz was left off BA's top 10... Did I miss something on him?

I was looking forward to Yelich-Mitchell-Lutz for years to come.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#36

Posted: December 21, 2020, 5:43 PM Post
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BestInTheWorld said:
Surprised Lutz was left off BA's top 10... Did I miss something on him?

I was looking forward to Yelich-Mitchell-Lutz for years to come.


Could be wrong, but I feel like BA tends to be pretty aggressive with ranking newly drafted/signed players.

For me at least, its hard to put guys like Zamora, Warren & Quero - who have never had a professional game - ahead of Lutz, who already has posted 110 & 120 wRC+ marks in full seasons at A & A+ while being about 2.5 years younger than average at each level & whose carrying tool (power) is probably the loudest & most important of the four players.

If Tristen didn't sign out of HS & went to a four year school, he would've been draft eligible in 2020 & going into his first year of pro ball just like Freddy & Zavier. Instead he has two years of pro success under his belt & will probably open the year in AA vs complex ball/A for the other three.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#37

Posted: December 22, 2020, 3:39 AM Post
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Location: Dubuque, IA
I was not sure where to post this but oh well. Maybe I am overthinking this but Antoine Kelly reposted a thoracic outlet syndrome information post on his Instagram story today. While this does not come with an extremely long recovery time if he is in fact experiencing this issue, the track record for success after a return is not very good.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#38

Posted: December 22, 2020, 4:40 AM Post
Posts: 3166
sveumrules said:
BestInTheWorld said:
Surprised Lutz was left off BA's top 10... Did I miss something on him?

I was looking forward to Yelich-Mitchell-Lutz for years to come.


Could be wrong, but I feel like BA tends to be pretty aggressive with ranking newly drafted/signed players.

For me at least, its hard to put guys like Zamora, Warren & Quero - who have never had a professional game - ahead of Lutz, who already has posted 110 & 120 wRC+ marks in full seasons at A & A+ while being about 2.5 years younger than average at each level & whose carrying tool (power) is probably the loudest & most important of the four players.

If Tristen didn't sign out of HS & went to a four year school, he would've been draft eligible in 2020 & going into his first year of pro ball just like Freddy & Zavier. Instead he has two years of pro success under his belt & will probably open the year in AA vs complex ball/A for the other three.

I agree with you here. If there was a season in 2020 he would have been in AA and likely AAA in 2021 at age 22. In 2019 Grisham was also 22 at AAA when we whiffed as a group and put him at #18. If Lutz does start at AA don"t see why he couldn't get to AAA by mid-season and a potential call up to the majors.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#39

Posted: December 22, 2020, 8:15 AM Post
Posts: 70
sveumrules said:
BestInTheWorld said:
Surprised Lutz was left off BA's top 10... Did I miss something on him?

I was looking forward to Yelich-Mitchell-Lutz for years to come.


Could be wrong, but I feel like BA tends to be pretty aggressive with ranking newly drafted/signed players.

For me at least, its hard to put guys like Zamora, Warren & Quero - who have never had a professional game - ahead of Lutz, who already has posted 110 & 120 wRC+ marks in full seasons at A & A+ while being about 2.5 years younger than average at each level & whose carrying tool (power) is probably the loudest & most important of the four players.

If Tristen didn't sign out of HS & went to a four year school, he would've been draft eligible in 2020 & going into his first year of pro ball just like Freddy & Zavier. Instead he has two years of pro success under his belt & will probably open the year in AA vs complex ball/A for the other three.


Many of BA's other teams have largely stayed static this year compared to last year outside of graduations and new draftees. It seems as the Brewers has had some of the greatest movement outside of those conditions. My takeaway and I want to say it was mentioned in the chat or somewhere, but they got a lot of insight from the organization both data and scouting from the Brewers alternative site vs. other teams. I'm also happy that it seems for the first time in a while they didn't have Tom H. involved with the brewers rollout of the top 10.


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Offline  Re: Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect Rankings (for 2021)
#40

Posted: December 23, 2020, 9:10 AM Post
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FanGraphs has started their organizational prospect lists & published the Reds today, for any who like to keep an eye on other NLC farms. So far all three teams published have been AZ based for spring training, so hopefully the Brewers will be in the first half of teams released.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-36-pros ... nati-reds/

Even though the Reds have picked 2, 2, 5, 7 & 12 the last five drafts compared to 5, 9, 21, 28 & 20 for the Brewers, their system only looks marginally better than ours.


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