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2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]

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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#41

Posted: April 21, 2012, 6:53 PM Post
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I'm ready for the Manny Parra experiment to end. He's had plenty of chances and hasn't shown a thing in any of them.


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#42

Posted: April 21, 2012, 6:57 PM Post
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Vgmastr said:
I'm ready for the Manny Parra experiment to end. He's had plenty of chances and hasn't shown a thing in any of them.

He has an FIP of 3.00 as a reliever. Hardly outstanding but to pretend that is not worth it as a #6 guy is wrong


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#43

Posted: April 21, 2012, 6:59 PM Post
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Can Manny Parra ever have a clean inning? He's a head case.


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#44

Posted: April 21, 2012, 6:59 PM Post
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topper09er said:
endaround said:
Contact play! With the infield in!


The contact play is pointless with the infield in, so dumb. If the fielder gets to it you are out, just wait and see if it gets through


Part of the contact play is getting a large lead and secondary lead at 3rd. There are plenty of times that the contact play will work even when the infield is in, and when there is a guy on 2nd there really isn't a good reason not to go for it.


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#45

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:02 PM Post
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Oxy said:
topper09er said:
endaround said:
Contact play! With the infield in!


The contact play is pointless with the infield in, so dumb. If the fielder gets to it you are out, just wait and see if it gets through


Part of the contact play is getting a large lead and secondary lead at 3rd. There are plenty of times that the contact play will work even when the infield is in, and when there is a guy on 2nd there really isn't a good reason not to go for it.


There are not plenty of times when it will work with the infield unless Carlos Gomez is running


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#46

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:07 PM Post
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Location: Somewhere near Mark A's place
So glad we played for one run last inning.


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT
#47

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:07 PM Post
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What a lame inning. Not one ball hit hard and they've already gotten two runs.


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#48

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:09 PM Post
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endaround said:
Oxy said:
endaround said:
Contact play! With the infield in!


As well as with a guy on 2nd and one out. The contact play should always be on in that situation. What did they lose exactly? After the out at the plate, there were guys on 1st and 3rd with 2 outs. Had the runners held, there would be guys on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs. Not much difference. You make the defense make the play and the tag at the plate every single time there.


They lost the ability to score 2 runs with a single. Its a losing play. Either a guy gets the ball and you're out at home or he doesn't and you can walk home anyway. There is no advantage to it.


There are lots of times the contact play will work even if the infield is in, more often than the single run you would lose if the next guy singles, and then the 3rd out is made the batter after that. If the next guy does anything else, there is no difference. if there is a walk and a single, no difference. If there are back to back singles, no difference. The only instance it would help to hold the runners is if there is a single, and then the third out is immediately made. That is a pretty specific pair of circumstances that need to happen in order to have a benefit of holding the runners.

Meanwhile, If you score the run on the contact play and they had to throw home, now you also saved an out, and still have 2 guys on base. There are more benefits to having the contact play on there than by holding the runners.


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#49

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:11 PM Post
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Even though they only gave up 2 runs that was such an ugly and stressful inning. High leverage situation and we are using these terrible relief pitchers. How about Peralta? Take a risk and stretch Estrada in for an extra inning? Break out of the routine and bring in Veras an inning early? This is brutal to watch.


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#50

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:13 PM Post
Posts: 10289
The run expectancy table
Run Expectancy Matrix, 1993-2010
BASES 0 OUTS 1 OUT 2 OUTS
___ 0.539 0.289 0.111
1__ 0.929 0.555 0.240
_2_ 1.172 0.714 0.342
__3 1.444 0.984 0.373
12_ 1.542 0.948 0.464
1_3 1.844 1.204 0.512
_23 2.047 1.438 0.604
123 2.381 1.620 0.798

So yes its a losing play. Like the bunt was.


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT
#51

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:16 PM Post
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'ata a babe, good thing all the fedex places are closed for the weekend


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#52

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:20 PM Post
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It sure looks like Alex is still quite hampered by that bruised heel. Still gimping around pretty noticeably


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#53

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:20 PM Post
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endaround said:
The run expectancy table
Run Expectancy Matrix, 1993-2010
BASES 0 OUTS 1 OUT 2 OUTS
___ 0.539 0.289 0.111
1__ 0.929 0.555 0.240
_2_ 1.172 0.714 0.342
__3 1.444 0.984 0.373
12_ 1.542 0.948 0.464
1_3 1.844 1.204 0.512
_23 2.047 1.438 0.604
123 2.381 1.620 0.798

So yes its a losing play. Like the bunt was.


Remember there are other considerations which this does not take into consideration such as the hitter's skill


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#54

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:35 PM Post
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endaround said:
The run expectancy table
Run Expectancy Matrix, 1993-2010
BASES 0 OUTS 1 OUT 2 OUTS
___ 0.539 0.289 0.111
1__ 0.929 0.555 0.240
_2_ 1.172 0.714 0.342
__3 1.444 0.984 0.373
12_ 1.542 0.948 0.464
1_3 1.844 1.204 0.512
_23 2.047 1.438 0.604
123 2.381 1.620 0.798

So yes its a losing play. Like the bunt was.


What does this show? That you score .092 more runs with guys on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs rather than 1st and 3rd with 2 outs? And that is if the contact play NEVER works? If I would have actually checked this table first I'd be even more adamant in my support for the contact play. If it DOES work, now you've already scored one run and if you forced a play at the plate you've got guys on the corners with one out, so you'd score another 1.204 runs if every batter and pitcher are robots and the situation has no other variables.

This is practically a no-brainer.


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#55

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:38 PM Post
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Seems like there have been some weird trajectories on a couple of hard-hit balls in the past couple games. Gamel's last night, Rickie's tonight.


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#56

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:42 PM Post
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I'm willing to give Gomez more playing time now against RH and LH pitching. He's earned it and he seems different dating back to second half of last season.


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#57

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:47 PM Post
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Ryan Braun is back!


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#58

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:48 PM Post
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A lead of more than 1 by either team after the 6th? I'm afraid this can't last.


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#59

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:51 PM Post
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Gomez is hilarious. Did he really think they had a chance in hell of getting him at home?!


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Offline  Re: 2012-04-21 Rockies (Pomeranz) at Brewers (Estrada), 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-4]
#60

Posted: April 21, 2012, 7:53 PM Post
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Gonzo says take that!!


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