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2017-06-24: Brewers (Garza) at Braves (Dickey) 3:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 3-1]

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Offline  Re: 2017-06-24: Brewers (Garza) at Braves (Dickey) 3:10 PM CDT
#41

Posted: June 25, 2017, 7:46 AM Post
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Posts: 4634
ZBTMP said:
You really cannot see the difference between the angst of Davies and Garza? Really? Garza is 33 and has been worth -1.7 3.1 fWAR since the start of 2015. Davies has still been worth 3 WAR over that same time period. Davies is coming of an age 23 season worth 2.3 WAR.

Garza is a liability who's best case scenario for the Brewers is something like 4.25 ERA over the next month and a half and someone saves us a million dollars to take him on before the waiver deadline. If the season were to end now and he were a free agent he wouldn't be getting a MLB contract.

(Fixed the above for you.)

You really cannot see that Garza was injured in 2015 and 2016, and even so put up 1.4 fWAR in 2016?

As for how much he's paid, it has been estimated that 1 WAR in free agency is worth $7-9M. Taking the midpoint, he was worth $11.2M last year and was paid $12.5M. Free agent starting pitching is expensive; please accept that reality.

I'm sorry, but this idea that Garza "sucks" is just patently false. And if Garza puts up a 4.25 ERA over the next month and a half... well, that's the equivalent of a low #2/high #3 starter because a 4.25 ERA, among players with at least 60 IP in the NL, would currently rank 26th.

I'm sorry if the stats don't fit your narrative.


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Offline  Re: 2017-06-24: Brewers (Garza) at Braves (Dickey) 3:10 PM CDT
#42

Posted: June 25, 2017, 8:33 AM Post
Posts: 441
LouisEly said:
ZBTMP said:
You really cannot see the difference between the angst of Davies and Garza? Really? Garza is 33 and has been worth -1.7 3.1 fWAR since the start of 2015. Davies has still been worth 3 WAR over that same time period. Davies is coming of an age 23 season worth 2.3 WAR.

Garza is a liability who's best case scenario for the Brewers is something like 4.25 ERA over the next month and a half and someone saves us a million dollars to take him on before the waiver deadline. If the season were to end now and he were a free agent he wouldn't be getting a MLB contract.

(Fixed the above for you.)

You really cannot see that Garza was injured in 2015 and 2016, and even so put up 1.4 fWAR in 2016?

As for how much he's paid, it has been estimated that 1 WAR in free agency is worth $7-9M. Taking the midpoint, he was worth $11.2M last year and was paid $12.5M. Free agent starting pitching is expensive; please accept that reality.

I'm sorry, but this idea that Garza "sucks" is just patently false. And if Garza puts up a 4.25 ERA over the next month and a half... well, that's the equivalent of a low #2/high #3 starter because a 4.25 ERA, among players with at least 60 IP in the NL, would currently rank 26th.

I'm sorry if the stats don't fit your narrative.


Garza wasn't really excessively injured, he was old and no longer effective in 2015 and 2016. -1.7 is his bWAR over that time which is a better indicator of the value the Brewers got. FWAR is exclusively FIP, which I am fine with a predictive metric but it has flaws and isn't really an encompassing indicator of the value the Brewers got. 4.25 is 90% IMO. Both fangraphs projection systems has his ERA over 5 for the remainder of the season which well, sucks and could be had by a non-roster invitee in spring training and the Brewers have a half dozen options at least that project better.


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Offline  Re: 2017-06-24: Brewers (Garza) at Braves (Dickey) 3:10 PM CDT
#43

Posted: June 25, 2017, 8:38 AM Post
Posts: 10214
LouisEly said:
ZBTMP said:
You really cannot see the difference between the angst of Davies and Garza? Really? Garza is 33 and has been worth -1.7 3.1 fWAR since the start of 2015. Davies has still been worth 3 WAR over that same time period. Davies is coming of an age 23 season worth 2.3 WAR.

Garza is a liability who's best case scenario for the Brewers is something like 4.25 ERA over the next month and a half and someone saves us a million dollars to take him on before the waiver deadline. If the season were to end now and he were a free agent he wouldn't be getting a MLB contract.

(Fixed the above for you.)

You really cannot see that Garza was injured in 2015 and 2016, and even so put up 1.4 fWAR in 2016?

As for how much he's paid, it has been estimated that 1 WAR in free agency is worth $7-9M. Taking the midpoint, he was worth $11.2M last year and was paid $12.5M. Free agent starting pitching is expensive; please accept that reality.

I'm sorry, but this idea that Garza "sucks" is just patently false. And if Garza puts up a 4.25 ERA over the next month and a half... well, that's the equivalent of a low #2/high #3 starter because a 4.25 ERA, among players with at least 60 IP in the NL, would currently rank 26th.

I'm sorry if the stats don't fit your narrative.


Garza being injured for 2 years is not a very strong argument for his value.

Anyway, he is who he is at this point. He's not a terrible starter, but he's a highly replaceable one and barring a very strong 2nd half I am sure they will be happy to move on from him next year.

I don't know why you keep bringing Davies into it. No one is giving Davies a pass. Davies is having a very poor season. He also is 24, has some developmental upaide and can be optioned to the minors, and was far better than Garza last year. He also makes about 4% of Garza's salary. He is a good value as a bottom of the rotation starter. Garza is not. Just because he might be technically 'worth' $12.5M in free agent dollars (though I bet you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that would give him that if he were a free agent today,) that does not mean he is a good value for a small market franchise.


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Offline  Re: 2017-06-24: Brewers (Garza) at Braves (Dickey) 3:10 PM CDT
#44

Posted: June 25, 2017, 10:26 AM Post
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Posts: 4634
ZBTMP said:
Both fangraphs projection systems has his ERA over 5 for the remainder of the season which well, sucks and could be had by a non-roster invitee in spring training and the Brewers have a half dozen options at least that project better.

1) The one constant about forecasting is that all forecasts are wrong, the question is by how much and in which direction.

B) You mean like Tommy Milone? Yeah, those non-roster invitees are better than Garza.

3) Bring up one of those half-dozen to replace Davies.

4) I don't care what someone's salary is - I'm not writing the checks. I care about winning.


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Offline  Re: 2017-06-24: Brewers (Garza) at Braves (Dickey) 3:10 PM CDT
#45

Posted: June 26, 2017, 4:22 PM Post
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Posts: 937
LouisEly said:
Came here specifically to see the criticism of Garza because he didn't throw 7 shutout innings of 2-hit ball.

For chrissakes, it was a quality start. He is close to the last thing to complain about today.

Looking forward to the same roasting of Davies whenever he gives up a run, since Davies has been much worse. Can't wait to see Davies optioned.


Agreed Garza wasn't the problem Saturday.

And we didn't get a chance yesterday to see the reaction to Davies giving up a run!

If they keep it up over the next few starts I'll be happy.


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