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2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]

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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hendrickson) 6:05 PM CDT
Posted: July 22, 2017, 9:21 PM Post
Posts: 9490
TJseven7 said:

Our runner on 2nd is slow. Our 3rd base coach is ed sedar. I think that shatters your analytics. Sorry.


Yeah, your argument makes zero sense whatsoever. Sorry. You're trying to bunt over a runner that you openly admit is slow, who is therefore less likely to get to 3rd successfully on a sac, and less likely to score on a sac fly, and you think that's an argument in your favor? K.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hendrickson) 6:05 PM CDT
Posted: July 22, 2017, 9:33 PM Post
Posts: 6081
Location: Kenosha, WI
MoreTrife said:
MrTPlush said:
MoreTrife said:
Odds knebel blows it? 2-1?


Odds >50% of comments in an IGT can actually be positive. 100000000-1?


Yes because blowing a 8-1 lead just makes people feel warm and fuzzy inside.


Try just about any IGT.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hendrickson) 6:05 PM CDT
Posted: July 22, 2017, 9:34 PM Post
Posts: 6081
Location: Kenosha, WI
adambr2 said:
MrTPlush said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
You don't bunt in that situation. You play for a big inning. Knebel won't hold a one run lead.


https://www.mlb.com/gameday/brewers-vs- ... ame=491553


There are years worth of data and many studies that pretty much prove that except for some very limited situations (not this one), sac bunting is dumb. Your odds of scoring a single run with a man on 3rd and 1 out is minisculy better, if better at all, than with a runner on 2nd and nobody out. Your odds of scoring multiple runs are diminished. All for a play that even has to be executed first before getting the opportunity, and execution rates have also gone down over the years.

This isn't an emotional reaction based on the game. Its fairly scientific. Outs are just too precious to give away freely.


It is...because my post had nothing to do with the bunt.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 9:38 PM Post
Posts: 9490
I'm sure you understand that I posted that in reference to you saying that the sac bunt was a great idea.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 9:38 PM Post
Posts: 296
Ok you dont need to be a snide numbers only ass. Bunting a guy over has little to do with speed. No decently placed bunt leaves enough time to throw to 3rd with any jump by a guy on 2nd. Perez bunted horribly. As far as scoring on the sac fly... better chance of him scoring on a sac fly than from 2nd on a single. No chance he doesn't score on a single at 3rd. Not to mention its shaw... or santana after a walk... good guy to have up.

But hey be a jerk because you have numbers that dont factor in situation. Never bunt and watch this team keep stranding dudes.

Numbers say so.

Edit... perez has been hot lately right... hes not a huge k risk right?


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 9:45 PM Post
Posts: 9490
TJseven7 said:
Ok you dont need to be a snide numbers only ass. Bunting a guy over has little to do with speed. No decently placed bunt leaves enough time to throw to 3rd with any jump by a guy on 2nd. Perez bunted horribly. As far as scoring on the sac fly... better chance of him scoring on a sac fly than from 2nd on a single. No chance he doesn't score on a single at 3rd. Not to mention its shaw... or santana after a walk... good guy to have up.

But hey be a jerk because you have numbers that dont factor in situation. Never bunt and watch this team keep stranding dudes.

Numbers say so.

Edit... perez has been hot lately right... hes not a huge k risk right?


Perez bunted horribly probably in part because he's not a very accomplished career sac bunter and thus not even a great candidate for the play.

I can only bring up the data. I can't force you to accept it, you're entitled to believe what you like. Nothing you've brought up convinces me that the situation clearly leaned in that favor.

Heads up that name-calling, which you did twice in this post, is not allowed in this forum.

viewtopic.php?&t=4208


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 9:49 PM Post
Posts: 296
And talking down to people is allowed? You are sitting on a number based situation blind high horse and acting like those numbers make you right. Thats as foolish as a coach in the nfl going for 2 because they are up 5 in the 1st quarter. Numbers say you go for the 7 point lead.

I said what I said vecause its clear to anyone reading that's exactly how you were acting. You call it name calling, you acted that way... i pointed it out.

You want to be the guy who takes a low blow and then cries for a flag after getting shoved... be my guest.


Last edited by TJseven7 on July 22, 2017, 9:56 PM, edited 2 times in total.

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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 9:49 PM Post
Posts: 6081
Location: Kenosha, WI
adambr2 said:
I'm sure you understand that I posted that in reference to you saying that the sac bunt was a great idea.


I don't because you had already replied to my bunting comment.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 9:57 PM Post
Posts: 9490
TJseven7 said:
And talking down to people is allowed? You are sitting on a number based situation blind high horse and acting like those numbers make you right. Thats as foolish as a coach in the nfl going for 2 because they are up 5 in the 1st quarter. Numbers say you go for the 7 point lead.


You're the only one talking down to anyone, at this point.

I brought up the studies based on years and years of historical data. I conceded that there are situations that would push that in the other direction, but as I said (and others have said), there's nothing about that situation and nothing that you have brought up that convince me that a sac bunt there increases our run probability that inning.

As I have already said, I'm only stating my opinion based on the data, you're entitled to your own, so please do not accuse me again of being on a "high horse."


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 10:16 PM Post
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Posts: 904
Location: Waukesha, WI
Was at Oriole Park tonight with one eye on the scoreboard. Thinking to myself yippie, up 8-1, the bullpen can't blow this. Not knowing what was going, but could guess when as it went 8-8. Good to see them pull it out. Was on pins and needles.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 10:17 PM Post
Posts: 296
You did no wrong... whatever you want to believe.

It is a fact that the numbers you thump as a bible do not in any way account for batters at the plate, on deck etc. (Ie your accomplished bunter or not, batter history with said pitcher, currently hot cold or high k rate batter/pitcher) Do not account for speed on the basepaths. Do they even account for inning and score?

Why do you think that is good enough to use as the end all be all?

At least I said bunt before it happened... you called it stupid after it failed.

I understand its niave to think any major league hitter should be able to lay down an acceptable bunt but the look of it says shaw with a guy on 3rd 1 out is a good bet. Santana with men at the corners 1 down is a good bet... especially in a tie game, in the top of 9... on the road, with an upper level closer.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 10:23 PM Post
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I don't see how Perez bunting Thames to 3rd is anything but stupid. Thames isn't fast, so even if he gets to 3rd, there's no guarantee he scores on any medium depth fly ball. Neris himself is a pretty good strikeout pitcher adding to the risk that no ball is even put in play with less than two outs and of course, you have to get a decent bunt on a decent pitch. The pitch that Perez bunted wasn't decent, it was a bad pitch that was extremely difficult to bunt so you have to have a hitter who's disciplined enough to wait for a good pitch to bunt. Perez is a lot of things but one of those things isn't disciplined enough to wait for a good pitch to bunt.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 10:33 PM Post
Posts: 296
I get that about perez bunting but it goes both ways... I'm on the other side I'm happy to let my good strike out pitcher attack their weak link, cold, swinging at junk batter... so I can get that k or non advancing out... walk shaw and set up the gidp chance with a slow runner at 2nd who likely wont score on most singles.

I don't want the weak batter moving the runner... from how he's been lately... I'd think his best chance to do that was bunt.

I don't doubt blind stats say thats wrong. It absolutely worked horrifically. But there have been a number of decisions made sunday on that I've been disgusted with. This choice makes sense in this situation.

I can't see any logic in having perez hit. We had no baserunning sub unless we subbed in a pitcher. The other choice was lift him for aguilar and move thanes to left for the 9th... which is defensive backwards.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 10:44 PM Post
Posts: 9490
TJseven7 said:
I get that about perez bunting but it goes both ways... I'm on the other side I'm happy to let my good strike out pitcher attack their weak link, cold, swinging at junk batter... so I can get that k or non advancing out... walk shaw and set up the gidp chance with a slow runner at 2nd who likely wont score on most singles.

I don't want the weak batter moving the runner... from how he's been lately... I'd think his best chance to do that was bunt.

I don't doubt blind stats say thats wrong. It absolutely worked horrifically. But there have been a number of decisions made sunday on that I've been disgusted with. This choice makes sense in this situation.

I can't see any logic in having perez hit. We had no baserunning sub unless we subbed in a pitcher. The other choice was lift him for aquilar and move thanes to left for the 9th... which is defensive backwards.


I don't know why you keep talking about Perez like he's such a threat to strikeout if you have him hit away. Perez has terrible plate discipline but he's good at putting the ball in play. He strikes out at a much lower rate than both Shaw and Santana. He hasn't been hot but he hasn't been striking out much, either.

Could he strike out? Sure. But Shaw is even more likely to K with Thames standing on 3rd with 1 out. Then the sac bunt is wasted, you're up to 2 out and you still need a hit anyway.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 10:50 PM Post
Posts: 9490
trwi7 said:
I don't see how Perez bunting Thames to 3rd is anything but stupid. Thames isn't fast, so even if he gets to 3rd, there's no guarantee he scores on any medium depth fly ball. Neris himself is a pretty good strikeout pitcher adding to the risk that no ball is even put in play with less than two outs and of course, you have to get a decent bunt on a decent pitch. The pitch that Perez bunted wasn't decent, it was a bad pitch that was extremely difficult to bunt so you have to have a hitter who's disciplined enough to wait for a good pitch to bunt. Perez is a lot of things but one of those things isn't disciplined enough to wait for a good pitch to bunt.


I'd at least understand a little better if you've got the bottom of the order coming up. Still would disagree, but it would make a little more sense to me. To me with the heart of your order coming up, great hitters but strikeout threats, yeah. I agree it wasn't the right strategy.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 11:06 PM Post
Posts: 9490
I've actually got more confidence in Hughes than Barnes at this point in time.

Don't get me wrong, Barnes is good -- most of the time. But when he's bad, he seems to be really bad.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 22, 2017, 11:30 PM Post
Posts: 296
So you ignore the short term where Perez is struggling in his last 8 games ...5 of last 24 8k 33% k rate which has been equal to shaw's july and 5% worse than santana's july? Equal to santanas season and 8% higher than shaws season.

Coming in his 1st ab with 2 others on ab 5... 2 of 3 and a bb 1 of 3 and a bb respectively. 1k for shaw none for santana. Those factors mean zilch?

This is my issue with the situation devoid numbers... perez has been bad lately. His Ks have been up lately. What numbers do you choose... career season month recent? You can't just look at his career and go... he doesnt strike out as much... cuz then you ignore whats happening now. Shaws been on today santana too how much stock do you put in that?

To me its like seeing broxton clunking away and going yeah but his season = x so ignore what you see cuz its just a sample size thing. Villar and broxton have looked completely broken at times. Perez looks off lately. Santana has been taking his game up another level each passing month this year... ignore?

This blind numbers stuff just baffles me... its not like tgat in any other sport... i mean your 40% 3 point shooter is clanking 3s an is 1 for 8, hes off... and your 33% 3 point shooter is watching everything fall at 5 for 5... you can see it... its not the statistical norm... but who do you draw the play for? Baseball analytics... feeling it? Hot? On? IGNORE 40% shooter ftw.


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hellickson) 6:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 9-8]
Posted: July 23, 2017, 6:50 AM Post
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Posts: 578
Absolutely 100% the right call to bunt the runner to third in that situation.

After the bullpen fiasco, the Brewers desperately needed to regain the lead.

Getting a runner to 3rd wth less than 2 outs late in a tie game is HUGE! There is a multitude of ways a runner can score from third in that situation (sac fly, infield out up the middle, sac fly, Wild pitch, passed ball, error, ANY hit, etc)


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hendrickson) 6:05 PM CDT
Posted: July 23, 2017, 6:53 AM Post
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Posts: 822
Location: N. Fort Myers, FL
Matt1969 said:
Interesting broadcasting group tonight.


I wonder where BA and Rock are...


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Offline  Re: 2017-07-22: Brewers (Suter) at Phillies (Hendrickson) 6:05 PM CDT
Posted: July 23, 2017, 6:57 AM Post
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Posts: 822
Location: N. Fort Myers, FL
adambr2 said:
Most runs in a game since the first game back from the break.

Now just lock Torres and Scahill in a broom closet to remove temptation.


Should I [laughing] or should I cry...?


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