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2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]

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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 06, 2017, 7:11 PM Post
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Posts: 5458
Boomer5 said:

Did you see the twitter pic? The optics are very bad on several levels.


Yes, I did see it. You're applying how you think they should feel about losing a game (presumably, angry) to the situation. I'm sure they're not happy losing a game the way they did, and scoring 6 runs in a series. Do you think they're happy about it? Did you watch or listen to any post game interviews? My guess is this was pre-planned (with the outfits), this is something the team has been doing yearly for quite a while now. Having fun is something players HAVE to do over a 162 game season, regardless if you or anyone else wants them to be furious over losing a game.

Everyone is different. How people react to winning or losing, or negative stuff at their workplace is different. I don't know how you want them to feel, but I'm sure they're not just like "Meh, it's a game, we lost, who cares?" The point is, I don't know how they feel about it, and neither do you. But I do know that them having some fun on a plane ride doesn't have ANYTHING to do with how much they do care. This was going to happen whether they won or lost today, or whether they scored 15 runs or 100 runs over the last 10 games.


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 06, 2017, 7:24 PM Post
Posts: 9490
owbc said:
https://twitter.com/Brewers/status/894315465631248384

Yikes...


Nothing like wearing a Vikings jersey to make Wisconsin sports fans forget about how awful you've been this year.


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 06, 2017, 7:28 PM Post
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The run expectancy with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs since 2010 are 61% to score at least 1 run. With runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out it becomes 67.6% That is assuming an average hitter of which Broxton is not. A higher than normal percentage of his outs are from K's and popups and a higher than normal percentage of his hits are for extra bases which would score the runner from 2nd as easily as the one from 3rd. The seasonal success rates of sacrifice bunst generally ranges between 70% and 80% and Pina is almost certainly a below average bunter. If the bunt fails you are down to a 40.6% chance to score.

It is pretty unlikely that bunting was the right call in this specific situation. Bunting's value has gone down in today's game because players don't put the ball in play as much and when they do it tends to be for more extra base hits. In an era where people didn't K a lot and hit mostly singles it made a ton of sense. That isn't today's game. Now if it were say Villar up and there was a chance to bunt for a hit or stress out the defense into an error or something I might like it more. Or if we had say Dustin Pedroia up next who only strikes out 10% of the time. There are situations where it is definitely the right move, this just wasn't the right time.


Last edited by Ennder on August 06, 2017, 7:45 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 06, 2017, 7:28 PM Post
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They took 2 of 3 on the road from a team that had the exact same record that they did before the series started. They very well could have swept, but they also just as easily could have been swept. Today's loss sucks but I bet everyone on the team is please with how the series turned out.


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 06, 2017, 8:11 PM Post
Posts: 1184
Boomer5 said:
owbc said:
https://twitter.com/Brewers/status/894315465631248384

Yikes...


I know this is just how today's athlete behaves and one could argue it just keeps them loose.

I guess I'm old school and wish the players cared as much about baseball as we do. But seeing them and especially Thames at the wrestling match was so lame. He really looks silly acting like that when he has been so bad since April.


So when a player is struggling they should just sit at home and mope? There's athletes and celebrities at WWE all the time, who really cares? Maybe you shouldn't be so wound up in sports sports is ones life just sports. Would you rather they be out clubbing and getting arrested or doing drugs instead of going to a harmless wrestling show?


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 06, 2017, 9:50 PM Post
Posts: 5648
If you have a bad day at work, do you try to put that aside when tou go home? I hope so. With that said, I have never understood how nfl players can lose a game and 10 seconds later go have a laugh with opposing players. Thats always been weird to me.


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 06, 2017, 10:19 PM Post
Posts: 296
Ennder said:
The run expectancy with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs since 2010 are 61% to score at least 1 run. With runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out it becomes 67.6% That is assuming an average hitter of which Broxton is not. A higher than normal percentage of his outs are from K's and popups and a higher than normal percentage of his hits are for extra bases which would score the runner from 2nd as easily as the one from 3rd. The seasonal success rates of sacrifice bunst generally ranges between 70% and 80% and Pina is almost certainly a below average bunter. If the bunt fails you are down to a 40.6% chance to score.

It is pretty unlikely that bunting was the right call in this specific situation. Bunting's value has gone down in today's game because players don't put the ball in play as much and when they do it tends to be for more extra base hits. In an era where people didn't K a lot and hit mostly singles it made a ton of sense. That isn't today's game. Now if it were say Villar up and there was a chance to bunt for a hit or stress out the defense into an error or something I might like it more. Or if we had say Dustin Pedroia up next who only strikes out 10% of the time. There are situations where it is definitely the right move, this just wasn't the right time.


So let me get this straight... you will explain away the 6% gain if the 70-80% chance falls in our favor by stating broxton isn't average and strikes out too much yadda yadda... but give no statistical relevance to the low scoring tie game... or the streak of crap our offense has been mired in. Neither of those things are average. You ignore the extra statistical pitfall of a slow runner hitting into the gidp. People intentially walk batters to set it up so it must have some relevance. Or the % difference that him swinging away gives of advancing the runners vs the bunt advancing them. You also ignore thames on 2nd and his ability to score from 2nd on a single.

Statistics 101... statistics can easily lie. Its why teams have went from average to obp to ops to whatever things are now. Why war is dead... why whip and era are fip. The numbers analytics thump like a bible are still blind of many metrics that matter. Its not a lack of sample size over time its a lack of filters that are extremely necessary.

With what you just said you can say... bunting is nearly never the better option.

The only thing you KNOW statistically is that you gain 6.6% at 2nd 3rd 1 out vs 1st 2nd no outs. That's all you can accurately statistically quantify. You haven't run the math to extrapolate beyond that. The what ifs aren't reflected in those numbers. They simply are.

How is a 70-80% chance at a 6.6% increase in your odds not viable?

Even at 60% with the always popular... poor bunter... excuse. Your 60% chance at a 6.6% increase in likelihood you score 1 run is roughly a 4% increase. On 61% odds... 1 more time you score a run per 15-16 attempts. Can't play the stats game then say thats insignificant. That variations for example less than what the computer group gained on vegas and made serious bank in the process. There 53% jump to 55% was equated to crossing the atlantic.

Stats people... you can not just decide which numbers do and do not matter. The wrong filters... a lack of filters makes the results you come to without merit. You know this... why ignore it! It makes me crazy!


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 07, 2017, 5:42 AM Post
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If we give Pina a 75% chance to bunt it means we have lowered our odds of scoring 25% of the time by 27%. The other 75% of the time we raise our chances by 6%.

So the math is .75*.06-.25*.27=.045-.0675=-.0225. We have lowered our chances of scoring a single run by over 2%. But of course the people up do matter. With Broxton that 2nd and 3rd run expectancy goes down because he strikes out 40% of the time. With him specifically batting our run expectancy for a single run probably goes down like 4 or 5%. Bunting is very clearly wrong here. There isn't really an argument for the bunt. It would take an extremely good bunter or someone who is extremely fit with runners on 2nd and 3rd to make this a smart move and we had neither. This -2% is generous in this case.

That also doesn't include the fact that our chance to score multiple runs goes way down. So you are lowering your chances to score one run a minute amount, lowering the chance of scoring multiple runs a ton. There just is no case for a bunt here other than saying that's how they did in the old days, which really doesn't matter in today's game.


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT
Posted: August 07, 2017, 6:28 AM Post
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Posts: 822
Location: N. Fort Myers, FL
PinaMadness said:
OT Cutler signs with the Dolphins. 1 year for 10 million.


Too bad the Packers don't play Miami this year. [wink]


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT
Posted: August 07, 2017, 6:38 AM Post
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Location: N. Fort Myers, FL
sauveb said:
The Counsell decision making has been atrocious the last month. He doesn't seem to have a very good feel for the game. He manages like he used to hit, same bad batting stance over and over and over.


CC does drive me crazy at times but what can a manager do if his guys aren't hitting? I LOVE what I am seeing from my starters and most of the bullpen. If you can't score more than a couple of runs a night you're gonna lose games like this. Hopefully soon the guys will get out of this funk and the offense wakes up before Labor Day.

BTW, it is hard to sweep teams, especially on the road. Thankfully the Cubs lost so we didn't lose any ground...


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 07, 2017, 6:40 AM Post
Posts: 156
I'm really doubting Counsell as a manager more and more. He is bad at batting orders and bullpen management. Keeping Arica at the bottom and sticking to traditional bullpen roles is hurting this team. Also pitching Hader once a week but Barnes all the time-like last nights big situation-sucks too.

It's debatable but I think he also has some role in who is on the ML roster to play CF and broxton has more than proven his alike 2 days in AAA didn't cure his ineptitude. But I guess hoping to get "meh" instead of "poo" for Broxton this offseason is better than playing and developing Brinson isn't as important


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 07, 2017, 6:55 AM Post
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Broxton in on pace for roughly a 1 WAR season, he really isn't the problem with the team.


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 07, 2017, 7:34 AM Post
Posts: 156
no one said he was. There is no THE problem, but many individual problems, some of which are solveable -2B, Broxton starting, bullpen management, lineup construction, Braun without steroids, etc


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 07, 2017, 11:19 AM Post
Posts: 296
Ennder said:
If we give Pina a 75% chance to bunt it means we have lowered our odds of scoring 25% of the time by 27%. The other 75% of the time we raise our chances by 6%.

So the math is .75*.06-.25*.27=.045-.0675=-.0225. We have lowered our chances of scoring a single run by over 2%. But of course the people up do matter. With Broxton that 2nd and 3rd run expectancy goes down because he strikes out 40% of the time. With him specifically batting our run expectancy for a single run probably goes down like 4 or 5%. Bunting is very clearly wrong here. There isn't really an argument for the bunt. It would take an extremely good bunter or someone who is extremely fit with runners on 2nd and 3rd to make this a smart move and we had neither. This -2% is generous in this case.

That also doesn't include the fact that our chance to score multiple runs goes way down. So you are lowering your chances to score one run a minute amount, lowering the chance of scoring multiple runs a ton. There just is no case for a bunt here other than saying that's how they did in the old days, which really doesn't matter in today's game.


And lets not mention the chances him swinging away doesnt move a runner or the chances he grounds into a gidp. Both of those take down our run scoring chances as well.

Which is the exact reason the odds go up 6.6%

You cant calculate down the odds of bunting and pretend there are no negative effects involved with him swinging away.

The odds of a gidp with a swing away are higher. Kills run expectancy.
The odds of not advancing the runners is more as well. Or at least going 1st and 3rd 1 out which is also worse.

This 25 to 35% chance we drop 27% lower on run expectancy also exists at a higher rate for swing away in pop outs, ks, ground outs where the runners dont advance. You cant compare outcomes if you project one out and leave the other in its current form.

You are more likely to move the runners, increase your likelihood of scoring by 6.6% and lower your chances of disaster with a bunt play... you are more likely to score many runs with the swing away. That's the trade off... Game was tied 1-1. You play to take the lead. Winning by 1 is no different than winning by 3 at the end of the day.

If we were down 1... I hear the weight of bigger inning thinking. But 1 run dramatically increase our chances to win that game. Especially at 1-1.


Last edited by TJseven7 on August 07, 2017, 11:37 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 07, 2017, 11:28 AM Post
Posts: 3513
Late innings, 8&9 you have to bunt there. Saying Broxtons k rate makes him bad to do so is ignoring the reason that K rate is high...his long swing, not sticking a bat out there and making any kind of contact. We dont need a big inning, just a friggin' run. The 3rd out would have been a play at the plate, run on contact which if scored left runners at 1st and 3rd and 1 out, or 2outs. If they had scored now our odds are more in favor to add a 2nd run 1out runner on 3rd.
Manufacture 1 run at that stage of the game. Before the 7th inning, go ahead bat away.


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 07, 2017, 2:29 PM Post
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Posts: 4315
TJseven7 said:
Ennder said:
If we give Pina a 75% chance to bunt it means we have lowered our odds of scoring 25% of the time by 27%. The other 75% of the time we raise our chances by 6%.

So the math is .75*.06-.25*.27=.045-.0675=-.0225. We have lowered our chances of scoring a single run by over 2%. But of course the people up do matter. With Broxton that 2nd and 3rd run expectancy goes down because he strikes out 40% of the time. With him specifically batting our run expectancy for a single run probably goes down like 4 or 5%. Bunting is very clearly wrong here. There isn't really an argument for the bunt. It would take an extremely good bunter or someone who is extremely fit with runners on 2nd and 3rd to make this a smart move and we had neither. This -2% is generous in this case.

That also doesn't include the fact that our chance to score multiple runs goes way down. So you are lowering your chances to score one run a minute amount, lowering the chance of scoring multiple runs a ton. There just is no case for a bunt here other than saying that's how they did in the old days, which really doesn't matter in today's game.


And lets not mention the chances him swinging away doesnt move a runner or the chances he grounds into a gidp. Both of those take down our run scoring chances as well.

Which is the exact reason the odds go up 6.6%

You cant calculate down the odds of bunting and pretend there are no negative effects involved with him swinging away.

The odds of a gidp with a swing away are higher. Kills run expectancy.
The odds of not advancing the runners is more as well. Or at least going 1st and 3rd 1 out which is also worse.

This 25 to 35% chance we drop 27% lower on run expectancy also exists at a higher rate for swing away in pop outs, ks, ground outs where the runners dont advance. You cant compare outcomes if you project one out and leave the other in its current form.

You are more likely to move the runners, increase your likelihood of scoring by 6.6% and lower your chances of disaster with a bunt play... you are more likely to score many runs with the swing away. That's the trade off... Game was tied 1-1. You play to take the lead. Winning by 1 is no different than winning by 3 at the end of the day.

If we were down 1... I hear the weight of bigger inning thinking. But 1 run dramatically increase our chances to win that game. Especially at 1-1.


Just gonna leave this here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/re24/

If you truly think Pina's ability to bunt (he can't) trumps his ability to GIDP, Pop out, K, etc (he doesn't do any of those any more often than the MLB average) you cannot just randomly make assumptions to further your argument.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 07, 2017, 2:30 PM Post
Posts: 1430
Location: Madison, WI
Team is massively overachieving and have a legit manager of the year candidate here and people bashing him and calling for the guys head. It's a long season, there's going to be bad losses and things to nitpick but overall he is doing well. He has been handed trash to use in the BP, Joe Torre couldn't properly manage this bullpen the way you guys expect with only one reliable guy (now two with Swarzak). The offense is tight right now though, hopefully he can get them back to the fun carefree way they were playing before the ASB.

That's not say I didn't expect or want a bunt there, but to act like the guys a moron or a terrible manager because of it is just an overreaction. It can easily go either way. I'd have rather gone with someone fresh than Barnes too, but like I said his options are garbage. Swarzak I'm sure was unavailable and he wanted to save Knebel for the save situation if it came up.


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Offline  Re: 2017-08-06: Brewers (Nelson) at Rays (Archer) 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 2-1]
Posted: August 07, 2017, 2:31 PM Post
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You are more likely to move the runners, increase your likelihood of scoring by 6.6% and lower your chances of disaster with a bunt play... you are more likely to score many runs with the swing away. That's the trade off... Game was tied 1-1. You play to take the lead. Winning by 1 is no different than winning by 3 at the end of the day.


I just showed you the math that says otherwise. You can't just assume the bunt always works, the times the bunt does not work cost you more value than the times it does work gains you. I am trying to include all outcomes of the bunt just like all outcomes of swinging away are accounted for in the original run expectancy. This has been studied to death. It is rarely helpful to have a positional player bunt in today's game. Bunting there with Pina is ALWAYS wrong, it lowers your chance to score. You can't argue with the math. If they changed sac bunts the way they changed IBB and you just got to point to third and they got their base than yeah, bunting improves our chances by 6%, that just isn't how it works. When you factor in failed bunts it is clearly a negative move.

When deciding to bunt there needs to be some reason that you think the situation is better than normal. Either you have a really bad hitter up, a really good contact guy up next, bunting to a poor fielder, a really good bunter is up etc. There are certainly cases it makes sense. This one the context was against a bunt in almost every way. TB has a good fielding team, Pina is a better hitter than Broxton, Broxton strikes out a ton. Pina probably isn't a good bunter though I don't know it for sure. All of the context is going against the bunt and the math always goes against it.

Do a simple search on why you shouldn't bunt and you can find article after article that spits the math out for you, you don't have to take my word for it. Counsell did the right thing and there really isn't any reasonable doubt about it.


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