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2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) [Brewers win, 13-10 -- Brewers tee off on Quintana early en route to tallying 15 hits and 5 HRs in slugfest]

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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:41 PM Post
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topper09er said:
Ennder said:
PinaMadness said:
You have any data to back that up?




well to be fair to the other position, the claim is not about average runs/inning over the whole season. It was more like when they score big early they stop scoring at all the rest of the game. I was trying to figure out a way to easily disprove this but it is difficult so I gave up. I think overall the claim feels worse as a Brewer fan and it is likely grossly exaggerated, however it also seems similar to the complaint of "playing to the competition" or something along those lines, but that does not really seem like a thing with baseball as much as football where you usually hear that.

Since the pouring it on crowd started this they need to mine the data and prove their side


I definitely agree that it is really hard to prove one way or the other. I decided to look at it and didn't really know where to start so just went with the tOPS+ which is certainly an imperfect method.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:42 PM Post
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turborickey said:
FVBrewerFan said:
Polanco with the cycle


of course, it's the first time I have benched him on one of my fantasy teams...


I dropped him for a spot start by a Catcher. He was just a bench guy for me so no big deal but certainly bad timing since my normal 2B didn't have a game.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:42 PM Post
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topper09er said:
Ennder said:
PinaMadness said:
You have any data to back that up?


You have any data to contradict it? The Brewers were well above average in the 1st innings of games last year. They were below average in the 2nd inning but well above average in the 3rd inning. They were below average in the 4th inning. They were about average in the 5th and 6th inning. All of those are considering tOPS+ There is no pattern here at all, it is just random noise. They were a team that jumped on pitchers early and then had inconsistent results from that point on against starters just like everyone else. They were stronger than most in the 8th and 9th as well which feels just random.


well to be fair to the other position, the claim is not about average runs/inning over the whole season. It was more like when they score big early they stop scoring at all the rest of the game. I was trying to figure out a way to easily disprove this but it is difficult so I gave up. I think overall the claim feels worse as a Brewer fan and it is likely grossly exaggerated, however it also seems similar to the complaint of "playing to the competition" or something along those lines, but that does not really seem like a thing with baseball as much as football where you usually hear that.

Since the pouring it on crowd started this they need to mine the data and prove their side

It's easy. Go read the message boards for other teams. You see the exact same complaint.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:42 PM Post
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Williams is awful against lefties. I'm not sure what Counsell is thinking here.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:43 PM Post
Posts: 8619
In my years of experience in IGTs, one thing I've learned. Reality has beaten "seems like" about 11-1.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:44 PM Post
Posts: 19234
Good grief, just get Taylor out of there before he blows a massive lead.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:44 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
In my years of experience in IGTs, one thing I've learned. Reality has bearen "seems like" about 11-1.



I agree, it is why i have like half the messages in these threads blocked. You read really questionable posts by someone enough times and it is easier to just block them.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:44 PM Post
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Taylor Williams is an enigma. Love his stuff but just hasn't really worked out.


Last edited by MoreTrife on April 05, 2019, 9:45 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:45 PM Post
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Well, that was a painful way to get 2 outs, but thanks Williams.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:45 PM Post
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At least its only claudio and not hader.

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:45 PM Post
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I do enjoy sending those Cubbies fans back onto the freeway with a loss...

Let them pour onto the freeways with a dark, sad heart...

Makes me feel good.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:45 PM Post
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GO LOCAL SPORTS TEAM!!

"Did I ever tell you how I became a Postman Abby? I don't know if you'd laugh or cry"-The Postman


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:46 PM Post
Posts: 3806
Good bullpen management by Maddon to keep it close.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:46 PM Post
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MoreTrife said:
Taylor Williams is an enigma. Love how stuff but just hasn't really worked out.


He's proof that you need more than a upper 90s fastball to be successful against major league hitters. I've been really hoping the last couple years that he would emerge as a back-end pen options, but every outing like this makes that seem further away.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:46 PM Post
Posts: 1236
If I remember right, this is not a save situation for Claudio.....


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:47 PM Post
Posts: 19234
I don't really know why Claudio didn't just pitch this inning to begin with. There was a whole string of mostly lefties coming up.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:47 PM Post
Posts: 4304
Williams did pitch his way into a save situation for someone but at least it's not Hader. We'll need a quality start out of Burnes tomorrow.

"You're not going to have him when you want him and you're going to run out of games. He can't pitch 90 games. It's just not going to work. If anyone thinks it's going to work, show me how."- Craig Counsell on Josh Hader.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:47 PM Post
Posts: 902
Makes albers look like Trevor Hoffman


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:47 PM Post
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If tOPS backs up that most of the runs scored over a season is pretty randomly spread out, then the claimant has to back up the claim that the team not doing the "pouring on" is actually giving some visible, measurable lack of effort to score runs when up early in the game. There's no way to measure this, and no way to dispute it.

Run distribution over 162 games is entirely random. Players on a roster get hot at different times. Players hit pitchers (as Ender said) better in the first inning. Players hit pitchers better the third time through (if they get to see a starter a third time, which is rare). If you're up by 2 or 3 runs, you're probably seeing a succession of relievers who are doing everything they can to keep the game close/manageable.


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Offline  Re: 2019-04-05: Cubs (Quintana) at Brewers (Woodruff) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: April 05, 2019, 9:47 PM Post
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Cool Hand Lucroy said:
If I remember right, this is not a save situation for Claudio.....

I believe you are correct.

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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