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2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) [Brewers lose, 7-1 -- Yelich hitting 28th HR is lone bright spot]

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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#81

Posted: June 20, 2019, 7:56 PM Post
Posts: 17383
phnxcrew said:
I’m perfectly fine with an aguilar DFA at this time. Good lord


Yeah he's got to go. Great clubhouse guy is fine but you can't continue to carry a backup 1st baseman that hits this bad.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM
#82

Posted: June 20, 2019, 7:56 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 622
Location: Pilgrim in an unholy land
So, I’ve been out of country for the last two weeks and not really paying attention to baseball until I got back last night. As it happens, that was fortuitous timing, as it seems the Crew is playing the worst ball of the season thus far. Considering this, I may sound a bit like a new recruit getting cycled into a battle-hardened unit of veterans (“you weren’t there, man!” and all that), but my first thought is: did everyone think this wasn’t going to happen at some point? This is baseball. Remember the five game sweep by the Pirates last year? What if the brass would have done something crazy like dealing Yelich at that point? What a tragedy, and we all may have never even known what we missed.

My other thought is: the growth of baseball players and teams is often not linear. I know the comparison is far too pat, with Stearns’ former connections to the organization and the fact that Houston is now a far more accomplished franchise, but I’m reminded of the 2016 Astros. They were coming off a rousing completion of their rebuild, made a nice little playoff run the year before, had a great core intact, and expectations were high. Instead, they took a surprising step backwards and finished a distant third in their division, missing the playoffs entirely.

Now, of course, they knew they still had something special, kept making improvements, and have had a great couple of years since, highlighted by a title. So I have to admit I’m floored by the talk of selling at this point. That is an astoundingly premature take on the situation, I think. Sure, I get this is the IGT, but c’mon. There will be plenty of time before the trade deadline to further evaluate the team’s potential this season, and the Crew shouldn’t do anything to jeopardize next year under any circumstances. That would be the height of foolishness, and I see no reason to fear such foolishness from this organization at this point. Let’s wait and see.

EDIT: and re-reading this, I want to be clear that I’m not accusing anyone of seriously advocating dealing Yelich, but rather bringing up a hypothetical from last year’s low point for effect. Forgive the rhetorical excess.


Last edited by Harvey'sWBs on June 20, 2019, 8:00 PM, edited 2 times in total.

What is best in life? To crush the Cardinals, Cubs, and Manny Machado, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their fanboys.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#83

Posted: June 20, 2019, 7:57 PM Post
Posts: 3573
Jopal78! said:
Young Ace? Now you’re the one who’s talking crazy. He had a great 2017 but Nelson has a career ERA over 4, a career whip over 1.30, a career FIP over 4 and had just enough service time to start getting expensive when he was injured. Not bad, but outside of 2017 he was text book mediocre.

He also tore both his rotator cuff and labrum.



Yeah, don't care what his career stats were, he was breaking out that year and was absolutely becoming our ace.

He has a 3.05 FIP in 2017 along with 10.2 K's per 9, a 4.15 SO/BB rate and he finished 9th in the Cy Young voting despite missing the last few weeks.

You weren't paying attention if you didn't see that he was becoming an ace and there was absolutely ZERO chance the Brewers were going to non-tender him at that point. There's not a team in the league that would have non-tendered him at that point.

And getting expensive? He made 3.7 last year and 3.7 this year.

But really, this time, DON'T take my word for it, he's an actual link;

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ace-and-kin ... my-nelson/

Nelson was without question pitching like an ace when he got hurt.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#84

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:01 PM Post
Posts: 3573
Harvey'sWBs said:
So, I’ve been out of country for the last two weeks and not really paying attention to baseball until I got back last night. As it happens, that was fortuitous timing, as it seems the Crew is playing the worst ball of the season thus far. Considering this, I may sound a bit like a new recruit getting cycled into a battle-hardened unit of veterans (“you weren’t there, man!” and all that), but my first thought is: did everyone think this wasn’t going to happen at some point? This is baseball. Remember the five game sweep by the Pirates last year? What if the brass would have done something crazy like dealing Yelich at that point? What a tragedy, and we all may have never even known what we missed.

My other thought is: the growth of baseball players and teams is often not linear. I know the comparison is far too pat, with Stearns’ former connections to the organization and the fact that Houston is now a far more accomplished franchise, but I’m reminded of the 2016 Astros. They were coming off a rousing completion of their rebuild, made a nice little playoff run the year before, had a great core intact, and expectations were high. Instead, they took a surprising step backwards and finished a distant third in their division, missing the playoffs entirely.

Now, of course, they knew they still had something special, kept making improvements, and have had a great couple of years since, highlighted by a title. So I have to admit I’m floored by the talk of selling at this point. That is an astoundingly premature take on the situation, I think. Sure, I get this is the IGT, but c’mon. There will be plenty of time before the trade deadline to further evaluate the team’s potential this season, and the Crew shouldn’t do anything to jeopardize next year under any circumstances. That would be the height of foolishness, and I see no reason to fear such foolishness from this organization at this point. Let’s wait and see.



Great-great post.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#85

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:01 PM Post
Posts: 718
HiAndTight said:
treego14 said:
Oh my ... I wish you would read my posts more carefully ... [laughing]



I've seen SOOO many of your posts, I read it carefully. If they do the things you want them to do they'll be fine, yeah, I get it. What happens when Hiura struggles up here? Which WILL happen. He struck out in 1/3rd of his PA's and that's when he was doing well. I mean, I already know, you'll say he's overrated and to trade him before his stock drops, so it's a hypothetical.

For somebody named HiAndTight, you seem like you are overly defensive of high and tight fastballs (a metaphor for one fan's honest and heartfelt critique of the team's management not making moves quicker on guys who have been struggling immensely all season).

Take it easy, sir. [smile] We all want to see the Brewers win. [smile]


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#86

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:04 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2097
From our friends at Fangraphs (fWAR)

Arcia = Pina = Nottingham = Burnes

Hiura = Braun


Arcia and Braun have more than 200 PA compared to their "equals"


Yeah those hard hit balls really matter...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM
#87

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:10 PM Post
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Posts: 1745
Harvey'sWBs said:
So, I’ve been out of country for the last two weeks and not really paying attention to baseball until I got back last night. As it happens, that was fortuitous timing, as it seems the Crew is playing the worst ball of the season thus far. Considering this, I may sound a bit like a new recruit getting cycled into a battle-hardened unit of veterans (“you weren’t there, man!” and all that), but my first thought is: did everyone think this wasn’t going to happen at some point? This is baseball. Remember the five game sweep by the Pirates last year? What if the brass would have done something crazy like dealing Yelich at that point? What a tragedy, and we all may have never even known what we missed.

My other thought is: the growth of baseball players and teams is often not linear. I know the comparison is far too pat, with Stearns’ former connections to the organization and the fact that Houston is now a far more accomplished franchise, but I’m reminded of the 2016 Astros. They were coming off a rousing completion of their rebuild, made a nice little playoff run the year before, had a great core intact, and expectations were high. Instead, they took a surprising step backwards and finished a distant third in their division, missing the playoffs entirely.

Now, of course, they knew they still had something special, kept making improvements, and have had a great couple of years since, highlighted by a title. So I have to admit I’m floored by the talk of selling at this point. That is an astoundingly premature take on the situation, I think. Sure, I get this is the IGT, but c’mon. There will be plenty of time before the trade deadline to further evaluate the team’s potential this season, and the Crew shouldn’t do anything to jeopardize next year under any circumstances. That would be the height of foolishness, and I see no reason to fear such foolishness from this organization at this point. Let’s wait and see.

EDIT: and re-reading this, I want to be clear that I’m not accusing anyone of seriously advocating dealing Yelich, but rather bringing up a hypothetical from last year’s low point for effect. Forgive the rhetorical excess.


I appreciate the optimism but I don't see the comparison to Houston. They had an outstanding farm and numerous young pieces. We don't.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#88

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:10 PM Post
Posts: 1528
Freddy seems much more comfortable out of the pen. Has looked good of late.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM
#89

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:19 PM Post
Posts: 3400
MoreTrife said:
Harvey'sWBs said:
So, I’ve been out of country for the last two weeks and not really paying attention to baseball until I got back last night. As it happens, that was fortuitous timing, as it seems the Crew is playing the worst ball of the season thus far. Considering this, I may sound a bit like a new recruit getting cycled into a battle-hardened unit of veterans (“you weren’t there, man!” and all that), but my first thought is: did everyone think this wasn’t going to happen at some point? This is baseball. Remember the five game sweep by the Pirates last year? What if the brass would have done something crazy like dealing Yelich at that point? What a tragedy, and we all may have never even known what we missed.

My other thought is: the growth of baseball players and teams is often not linear. I know the comparison is far too pat, with Stearns’ former connections to the organization and the fact that Houston is now a far more accomplished franchise, but I’m reminded of the 2016 Astros. They were coming off a rousing completion of their rebuild, made a nice little playoff run the year before, had a great core intact, and expectations were high. Instead, they took a surprising step backwards and finished a distant third in their division, missing the playoffs entirely.

Now, of course, they knew they still had something special, kept making improvements, and have had a great couple of years since, highlighted by a title. So I have to admit I’m floored by the talk of selling at this point. That is an astoundingly premature take on the situation, I think. Sure, I get this is the IGT, but c’mon. There will be plenty of time before the trade deadline to further evaluate the team’s potential this season, and the Crew shouldn’t do anything to jeopardize next year under any circumstances. That would be the height of foolishness, and I see no reason to fear such foolishness from this organization at this point. Let’s wait and see.

EDIT: and re-reading this, I want to be clear that I’m not accusing anyone of seriously advocating dealing Yelich, but rather bringing up a hypothetical from last year’s low point for effect. Forgive the rhetorical excess.


I appreciate the optimism but I don't see the comparison to Houston. They had an outstanding farm and numerous young pieces. We don't.

I agree, this is not Houston and it's not particularly close. I'm not even sure we have all that much of a "core" at this point.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#90

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:25 PM Post
Posts: 718
Though we're getting whipped again, it's always nice to see Puig strike-out and look frustrated.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#91

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:25 PM Post
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Posts: 1285
This team is just awful right now, and at a time where they need to be dominating. Need a major shakeup at this point.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#92

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:27 PM Post
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Posts: 1285
Our core to build off of at this point is Yelich, Gamel, Woodruff, and Hader. That’s really about it.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#93

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:27 PM Post
Posts: 1528
Outside of Yelich the next two best players are on one year deals and no lock to be back. Let's say they don't Who is next? The future is promised to no one. This team is in trouble.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM
#94

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:28 PM Post
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Posts: 622
Location: Pilgrim in an unholy land
MoreTrife said:
Harvey'sWBs said:
So, I’ve been out of country for the last two weeks and not really paying attention to baseball until I got back last night. As it happens, that was fortuitous timing, as it seems the Crew is playing the worst ball of the season thus far. Considering this, I may sound a bit like a new recruit getting cycled into a battle-hardened unit of veterans (“you weren’t there, man!” and all that), but my first thought is: did everyone think this wasn’t going to happen at some point? This is baseball. Remember the five game sweep by the Pirates last year? What if the brass would have done something crazy like dealing Yelich at that point? What a tragedy, and we all may have never even known what we missed.

My other thought is: the growth of baseball players and teams is often not linear. I know the comparison is far too pat, with Stearns’ former connections to the organization and the fact that Houston is now a far more accomplished franchise, but I’m reminded of the 2016 Astros. They were coming off a rousing completion of their rebuild, made a nice little playoff run the year before, had a great core intact, and expectations were high. Instead, they took a surprising step backwards and finished a distant third in their division, missing the playoffs entirely.

Now, of course, they knew they still had something special, kept making improvements, and have had a great couple of years since, highlighted by a title. So I have to admit I’m floored by the talk of selling at this point. That is an astoundingly premature take on the situation, I think. Sure, I get this is the IGT, but c’mon. There will be plenty of time before the trade deadline to further evaluate the team’s potential this season, and the Crew shouldn’t do anything to jeopardize next year under any circumstances. That would be the height of foolishness, and I see no reason to fear such foolishness from this organization at this point. Let’s wait and see.

EDIT: and re-reading this, I want to be clear that I’m not accusing anyone of seriously advocating dealing Yelich, but rather bringing up a hypothetical from last year’s low point for effect. Forgive the rhetorical excess.


I appreciate the optimism but I don't see the comparison to Houston. They had an outstanding farm and numerous young pieces. We don't.


To make explicit what I hoped could be read between the lines (see “I know the comparison is far too pat...”) yes, of course, the comparison between Mil and Hou should not be read as me saying the Brewers are destined to be a league-wide juggernaut like Houston. Naturally, the Astros have sevral organizational advantages, owing to not just their status as a slightly larger media market, but also their scorched-earth rebuild (which, by the way, I am not jealous of, and despite the title which I deeply crave, I’d oppose such a strategy by Milwaukee on general principle. Years of intentionally wretched baseball is morally reprehensible, and I’d always be a bit embarrassed as a fan if I in any way supported it, even if a title acted as a post-coital cigarette. And if that imagery crosses the line for our user conduct, I apologize).

My point was simply that teams don’t always develop in straight trajectories. A few underwhelming weeks should not cause anyone to look at a team with legitimate title hopes as suddenly being without a short-term window of opportunity. I see no reason to start playing for five to ten years down the line and punting the present. It sounds like some are contemplating such an action, and I disagree with the wisdom of that. That is all.

What is best in life? To crush the Cardinals, Cubs, and Manny Machado, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their fanboys.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#95

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:28 PM Post
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Posts: 1971
xisxisxis said:
From our friends at Fangraphs (fWAR)

Arcia = Pina = Nottingham = Burnes

Hiura = Braun


Arcia and Braun have more than 200 PA compared to their "equals"


Yeah those hard hit balls really matter...


Braun could be hitting like a guy 5 or 6 years his junior in the middle of their primes...like Shaw or Aguilar...


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#96

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:37 PM Post
Posts: 83
Derek Johnson made this pitching staff look much better than their talent level. Does anyone think the Reds have the third best pitching staff because they have the third best ERA in baseball. Meanwhile our staff gets crushed nearly every night.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#97

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:39 PM Post
Posts: 17383
Jopal78! said:
Of course I’m serious. Nelson didn’t simply tear his labrum; he tore everything in his shoulder around the joint, front and back. You don’t have to take my word for it, it was reported in substantial detail that he was in uncharted area with his injury.

Pitchers get dropped all the time after suffering a major injury. Drew Smyly and Mike Minor come to mind as a couple examples.

All I’m saying is for a ‘small market club’ to sink significant bucks into an injured pitcher with no idea on how he’ll perform post injury was a dumb risk. Maybe Nelson makes me eat crow, then again maybe I’m right


I don't have a problem with them waiting on Jimmy and taking a chance on a comeback. But he was handled incredibly foolishly the last few weeks.

When he was brought up on June 5th, he was 7 days shy of his 5th service year which gives him the right to refuse an option. So had they played their cards right, they would have gotten 2 starts out of him to evaluate whether or not to send him back down or not.

Instead, he had one disastrous start on June 5th and then they just sat on their hands for 10 days while Jimmy didn't pitch and he hit his 5 year mark.

Now they're backed into a corner. They aren't going to DFA him this soon after all this waiting and investing. They can't option him. So they are stuck with a wasted roster spot continuing to send him out there to get shelled every 5 days because they can't stick him in San Antonio anymore.

It was just really poorly handled.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#98

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:43 PM Post
Posts: 494
The pitching staff is a train wreck right now.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
#99

Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:43 PM Post
Posts: 1528
Outside of Woodruff who else does this team build its rotation around? What does this rotation look like in a year? This is the scariest part of the trouble they are in.


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Offline  Re: 2019-06-20: Reds (Roark) at Brewers (Nelson) 7:10 PM CDT
Posted: June 20, 2019, 8:44 PM Post
Posts: 3400
yourout said:
The pitching staff is a train wreck right now.

Nah, I've been told that if you squint your eyes and turn your head slightly to the left, everything is actually really good.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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