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2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#41

Posted: September 30, 2019, 10:00 AM Post
Posts: 4702
Location: Madison, WI
Of course WAS should be favored, no doubt about it. But one game of baseball so anything can happen.

Positive look at this that you should be able to cover 5 innings between Woodruff/Hader alone. I'd guess Pomeranz is our next most trusted and can go 2. Should be able to have at least 7 innings of really strong pitching to make this a game. Just can't have one of those three have a blowup game/inning on this day and they should be in this thing.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#42

Posted: September 30, 2019, 10:01 AM Post
Posts: 278
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
jjfanec said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I'm really surprised by how many doubters there are already. This is playoff baseball! Absolutely anything can happen. While I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring game tomorrow, nothing would surprise me. This Brewers team truly is a Wild Card, in that it's true identity is a complete mystery.

Why would you be surprised? There have been so many times people declared this team dead. Not sure why people can't just enjoy the ride.


Yeah, the "I think they are bad, and will lose big, but will be happy to be wrong" predictions are just annoying.

I agree with you. This team has been put on the mat so many times, and has managed to get to its feet every time. Nothing they do would really surprise me anymore.

Also agree. So many Smartest Guys in the Room here. I just want the Brewers to win. I'm in LA, and there is a lot of the same type of gloom and doom about losing in the playoffs here as well.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#43

Posted: September 30, 2019, 10:08 AM Post
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turborickey said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
But Woodruff is also good enough that he's capable of a 7IP shutout and a HR.


Nope, not on Tuesday. There is no chance, 0% that he is allowed to pitch 7 innings, not to mention, he doesn't have the stamina built up even if they wanted him to go 7.

If we get a solid 3 innings we will be doing great!


That wasn't supposed to be a scientific prediction of where his stamina is, just that he has the talent to go toe-to-toe with any SP on a good day.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#44

Posted: September 30, 2019, 11:56 AM Post
Posts: 5099
Location: New Berlin, WI
This is a good read and pretty fair. Im not so sure it's fair to say nats have a big advantage at 3b and lf...a decent advantage probably but it's somewhat close. I also think hiura won't at all be impacted by the moment. https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-nation ... y-position


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#45

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:09 PM Post
Posts: 5099
Location: New Berlin, WI
As for the Brewers WC roster I'm guessing.

Positional - Grandal, Pina, Thames, Hiura, Arcia, Moose, Spang, Perez, Shaw/Austin, Grisham, Gamel, Braun, Cain, Taylor
Pitchers - Woodruff, Suter, Lyles, Pomeranz, Hader, Jackson, Claudio, Guerra, Freddy, Black, Anderson.

Really I think they try to get this game done with the first 5 pitchers on the list. Anderson is here as the last arm available in case it goes to extras. I could see either Lyles or Woodruff starting. It might be smart to stagger and have Suter pitch between Lyles and Woodruff so they can't simply stack LH hitters and switch to stacking RH hitters for later innings against Suter/Pomeranz/Hader. Any pitchers used beyond the top 5 will be very limited amount of batters and very matchup based. Claudio would probably face only one lefty(more than one if they happen to be stacked, but definitely never a RH hitter), Jackson/Freddy/Black would be primarily against RH batters. Guerra might get a full inning.

I would do a lineup of...

Grisham
Grandal
Braun
Moose
Hiura
Thames
Cain
Arcia
P

I expect they'll stick with Moose hitting 3rd and go Hiura/Thames/Braun behind. It would definitely be better to stagger RH and LH along with sliding Braun up with the way he's been hitting though.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#46

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:16 PM Post
Posts: 11875
Yah not sure what is going on here. I wasn't even claiming to say they were going to lose or that I was prepping with zero expectations for Tuesday. Now everyone is acting like I was claiming to be "the smartest in the room". For the record I was arguably one of if not the most optimistic person here when Yelich went down. Pointing out he was only one person and we already had a better record without him anyway. On paper it sucked, but small samples it can look like he wasn't even a help.

I don't think it is wrong to say it would take an absolute miracle for this team to make a run and/or make a World Series appearance....sorry that is just a fact. They are injured and their roster isn't really that good as is, at least not compared to other teams still playing. It will be a team that is largely disadvantaged for at least the one game playoff and the NLDS. I think the NLCS would be a little more of a crapshoot because I don't think Braves/Cards are that great. World Series would likely be a bad match up with another elite team (like the Dodgers).

I thought they could go on a run without Yelich and they could do the same in the postseason...though they will actually have to play good teams now. So they might want to play a little better than they did the last three games. Pretty sure I can still be honest and say they are at a massive disadvantage while still cheering for them though.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#47

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:23 PM Post
Posts: 737
My Wild Card Roster (assuming Braun and Cain are able to play):

Position Players
C - Grandal
1B - Thames
2B - Hiura
3B - Moustakas
SS - Arcia
OF - Braun
OF - Cain
OF - Grisham
Bench/Utility - Pina, Spangenberg, Perez, Gamel, Taylor, Shaw

Pitchers
Woodruff
Lyles
Suter
Peralta
Hader
Pomeranz
Guerra
Jackson
Claudio
Anderson
Davies


Anderson and Davies would be extra innings insurance, and Shaw - although terrible offensively this year - can play 2 positions well if needed for a double switch, unlike Austin - who also isn't a good hitter. Since we'll most likely be seeing all right-handed pitching (Scherzer and Strasburg + maybe Hudson, Doolittle being the only real lefty unless they throw Corbin on short rest), can't hurt to have another lefty bat.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#48

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:28 PM Post
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Posts: 9222
MrTPlush said:
Yah not sure what is going on here. I wasn't even claiming to say they were going to lose or that I was prepping with zero expectations for Tuesday. Now everyone is acting like I was claiming to be "the smartest in the room". For the record I was arguably one of if not the most optimistic person here when Yelich went down. Pointing out he was only one person and we already had a better record without him anyway. On paper it sucked, but small samples it can look like he wasn't even a help.

I don't think it is wrong to say it would take an absolute miracle for this team to make a run and/or make a World Series appearance....sorry that is just a fact. They are injured and their roster isn't really that good as is, at least not compared to other teams still playing. It will be a team that is largely disadvantaged for at least the one game playoff and the NLDS. I think the NLCS would be a little more of a crapshoot because I don't think Braves/Cards are that great. World Series would likely be a bad match up with another elite team (like the Dodgers).

I thought they could go on a run without Yelich and they could do the same in the postseason...though they will actually have to play good teams now. So they might want to play a little better than they did the last three games. Pretty sure I can still be honest and say they are at a massive disadvantage while still cheering for them though.


If the Brewers win Tuesday, and proceed to go on a run, it is far from a miracle. It's just baseball.

And saying that it would take a miracle and calling that a fact is somewhat contradictory, and comes off as a little combative in my opinion. You are more than entitled to your opinion on why you feel this team has the odds stacked against it in the playoffs, but I certainly understand why people read what you said and found it to be defeatist. .


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#49

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:30 PM Post
Posts: 5099
Location: New Berlin, WI
Just a reminder that the Brewers kinda punted on the game yesterday. They pulled all their good players when the Cardinals got a big lead and realized this game certainly wouldn't matter. I would bet the house that if we used our top relievers yesterday, we win that game. Friday was a stinker(we were overdue for one), Saturday we lose in large part due to a couple Colorado-only HR. Scherzer also hasn't been excessively sharp over his last few outings. 17 earned runs and 6 HR in 5 September outings. He's also pretty stubborn about wanting to stay in the game, so it's not like Martinez is going to be able to easily pull him if he allows a couple runs over in the first 3-4 innings.

I'm well aware one could easily poke holes and put seeds of doubt into all the reasons for optimism I listed above. Main point is there is plenty of legit reason for optimism. Also it's one game. The very worst team in baseball would probably win 3 of 10 in a best on best game against the Nationals. I would put us somewhere between 42 and 45 percent chance to win as it stands now. Cross our fingers and hope for the best.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#50

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:36 PM Post
Posts: 5099
Location: New Berlin, WI
brooks_quichenick said:
Anderson and Davies would be extra innings insurance, and Shaw - although terrible offensively this year - can play 2 positions well if needed for a double switch, unlike Austin - who also isn't a good hitter. Since we'll most likely be seeing all right-handed pitching (Scherzer and Strasburg + maybe Hudson, Doolittle being the only real lefty unless they throw Corbin on short rest), can't hurt to have another lefty bat.


I've read that Corbin is available out of the bullpen if needed. That's part of why I think Austin over Shaw. We'll have Spang/Gamel available off the bench already. I think I'd rather have Austin PH in the 8th inning against Corbin/Doolittle over Perez. There really isn't a wrong answer though. I'll add, I think the Brewers will be in a fantastic place if either Doolittle or Hudson pitches tomorrow(that or losing by 8 runs and completely toast). Washington has to be thinking Scherzer for at least 5 with Corbin/Stras finishing if the game is close. Even if Corbin is just a decoy, they could easily do 6 and 3 or 5 and 4 with their 2 horses. Both are better options than Hudson/Doolittle.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#51

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:38 PM Post
Posts: 11875
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MrTPlush said:
Yah not sure what is going on here. I wasn't even claiming to say they were going to lose or that I was prepping with zero expectations for Tuesday. Now everyone is acting like I was claiming to be "the smartest in the room". For the record I was arguably one of if not the most optimistic person here when Yelich went down. Pointing out he was only one person and we already had a better record without him anyway. On paper it sucked, but small samples it can look like he wasn't even a help.

I don't think it is wrong to say it would take an absolute miracle for this team to make a run and/or make a World Series appearance....sorry that is just a fact. They are injured and their roster isn't really that good as is, at least not compared to other teams still playing. It will be a team that is largely disadvantaged for at least the one game playoff and the NLDS. I think the NLCS would be a little more of a crapshoot because I don't think Braves/Cards are that great. World Series would likely be a bad match up with another elite team (like the Dodgers).

I thought they could go on a run without Yelich and they could do the same in the postseason...though they will actually have to play good teams now. So they might want to play a little better than they did the last three games. Pretty sure I can still be honest and say they are at a massive disadvantage while still cheering for them though.


If the Brewers win Tuesday, and proceed to go on a run, it is far from a miracle. It's just baseball.

And saying that it would take a miracle and calling that a fact is somewhat contradictory, and comes off as a little combative in my opinion. You are more than entitled to your opinion on why you feel this team has the odds stacked against it in the playoffs, but I certainly understand why people read what you said and found it to be defeatist. .



Shoot, at that point I thought it became a baseball-football hybrid.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#52

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:40 PM Post
Posts: 11875
KeithStone53151 said:
brooks_quichenick said:
Anderson and Davies would be extra innings insurance, and Shaw - although terrible offensively this year - can play 2 positions well if needed for a double switch, unlike Austin - who also isn't a good hitter. Since we'll most likely be seeing all right-handed pitching (Scherzer and Strasburg + maybe Hudson, Doolittle being the only real lefty unless they throw Corbin on short rest), can't hurt to have another lefty bat.


I've read that Corbin is available out of the bullpen if needed.


I would imagine if it got to extras or something. Can't have all your guys be throwing a bunch of innings when the NLDS starts after a single off day. Unless he were to pitch a single inning.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#53

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:42 PM Post
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Posts: 9222
KeithStone53151 said:
brooks_quichenick said:
Anderson and Davies would be extra innings insurance, and Shaw - although terrible offensively this year - can play 2 positions well if needed for a double switch, unlike Austin - who also isn't a good hitter. Since we'll most likely be seeing all right-handed pitching (Scherzer and Strasburg + maybe Hudson, Doolittle being the only real lefty unless they throw Corbin on short rest), can't hurt to have another lefty bat.


I've read that Corbin is available out of the bullpen if needed. That's part of why I think Austin over Shaw. We'll have Spang/Gamel available off the bench already. I think I'd rather have Austin PH in the 8th inning against Corbin/Doolittle over Perez. There really isn't a wrong answer though. I'll add, I think the Brewers will be in a fantastic place if either Doolittle or Hudson pitches tomorrow(that or losing by 8 runs and completely toast). Washington has to be thinking Scherzer for at least 5 with Corbin/Stras finishing if the game is close. Even if Corbin is just a decoy, they could easily do 6 and 3 or 5 and 4 with their 2 horses. Both are better options than Hudson/Doolittle.


Corbin just threw 94 pitches Saturday, and got shelled in 4 1/3 innings of work against the Indians. I doubt very much they are going to drag him out to face the Brewers on 3 days rest. Of course. who really knows?


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#54

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:47 PM Post
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Posts: 4245
I would call a prolonged run a miracle. Winning a series may qualify as a small one. This is by far the worst team in the playoffs and there's a reason most places have them at 1% right now.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#55

Posted: September 30, 2019, 12:57 PM Post
Posts: 737
KeithStone53151 said:
brooks_quichenick said:
Anderson and Davies would be extra innings insurance, and Shaw - although terrible offensively this year - can play 2 positions well if needed for a double switch, unlike Austin - who also isn't a good hitter. Since we'll most likely be seeing all right-handed pitching (Scherzer and Strasburg + maybe Hudson, Doolittle being the only real lefty unless they throw Corbin on short rest), can't hurt to have another lefty bat.


I've read that Corbin is available out of the bullpen if needed. That's part of why I think Austin over Shaw. We'll have Spang/Gamel available off the bench already. I think I'd rather have Austin PH in the 8th inning against Corbin/Doolittle over Perez. There really isn't a wrong answer though. I'll add, I think the Brewers will be in a fantastic place if either Doolittle or Hudson pitches tomorrow(that or losing by 8 runs and completely toast). Washington has to be thinking Scherzer for at least 5 with Corbin/Stras finishing if the game is close. Even if Corbin is just a decoy, they could easily do 6 and 3 or 5 and 4 with their 2 horses. Both are better options than Hudson/Doolittle.


I was thinking Shaw instead of Austin mainly for the defense, but also because Gamel can be used against righties or lefties and I'd rather have him facing Doolittle or Corbin than Austin, unless we're specifically in need of a home run.

Gamel's numbers vs. lefties this season are even more impressive than I thought (only 79 PA, but still):

.354/.456/.446
3 2B
1 HR
8 RBI
12 BB/22 K


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#56

Posted: September 30, 2019, 1:14 PM Post
Posts: 5099
Location: New Berlin, WI
OldSchoolSnapper said:
I would call a prolonged run a miracle. Winning a series may qualify as a small one. This is by far the worst team in the playoffs and there's a reason most places have them at 1% right now.


The Brewers were 20-7 in September, with 135 runs scored against 89 runs allowed. Houston was virtually tied with us for the best Sept record at 19-6...and their schedule strength was pretty similar to ours, arguably easier in fact. The Brewers certainly aren't playing like the worst team in the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#57

Posted: September 30, 2019, 1:21 PM Post
Posts: 702
Location: Washburn, WI
young guns said:
turborickey said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
But Woodruff is also good enough that he's capable of a 7IP shutout and a HR.


Nope, not on Tuesday. There is no chance, 0% that he is allowed to pitch 7 innings, not to mention, he doesn't have the stamina built up even if they wanted him to go 7.

If we get a solid 3 innings we will be doing great!

I would say 6 3 pitch inning might get him there.

Does anyone besides the diehardiest of diehard twins fans think they will win 1 game vs the yankees.


I think they have a good shot. That offense is explosive. I wouldn’t sleep on the Twins making a run this postseason. Twins get the edge with their starting staff, Yankees get the edge in the bullpen. The offenses are pretty similar.

The dream scenario would be the Brewers and Twins facing off in the World Series. It would be cool to have those two small market squads face off with the World Series on the line. That would be one electric border battle! [smile]


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#58

Posted: September 30, 2019, 1:28 PM Post
Posts: 1256
Black better have a 1 batter leash. No more.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#59

Posted: September 30, 2019, 1:38 PM Post
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Posts: 4245
It's those pesky other five months where Houston was better than the Brewers. I mean what is more likely? The Brewers not getting past any one of these 90+ win teams or the Brewers 18-2 stretch is an accurate depiction of how good they are?

There is really nothing controversial, contrarian or even negative about thinking the Brewers probably won't be playing by October 10th, if this weekend.


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Offline  Re: 2019 MLB Playoffs Preview and Discussion
#60

Posted: September 30, 2019, 1:39 PM Post
Posts: 5099
Location: New Berlin, WI
yourout said:
Black better have a 1 batter leash. No more.


Black really shouldn't pitch at all unless it goes to extras. Black is probably only ahead of our emergency long relief guy(Nelson/Anderson) and maybe Freddy. He's behind Woodruff/Lyles/Suter/Pomeranz/Hader/Jackson/Guerra. Probably equivalent to Claudio but would only pitch to RH hitters.


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