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Jenkins for Freddy Garcia

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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#1

Posted: October 03, 2006, 10:31 AM Post
Posts: 9
.Williams loves to pick guys up coming off down years and Melvins looking for a vet pitcher like Garcia


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#2

Posted: October 03, 2006, 11:26 AM Post
Posts: 10289
Why? Garcia isn't better than Davis and has a lower K/9 meaning he's less likely to be better going forward.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#3

Posted: October 03, 2006, 12:29 PM Post
Posts: 1445
Sign me up, there is no doubt this would make the Brew better.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#4

Posted: October 03, 2006, 2:48 PM Post
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Garcia is NOT worth $10M. Then again, Jenkins isn't worth $7M. Assume Jenkins is worth $4M, that'd make it like signing Garcia for $7M for a year. Do you do it?
His primary numbers are acceptable, and about league average (102 OPS+), while his peripherals are certainly not bad.
I guess it depends on how well you think our #5 will do next year. I would not be in tears over the move, because Villanueva could be a great long man, (though he could also be a better starter than Garcia - leaving you to pay $6M for a good long man) and someone else could be traded at the deadline, perhaps Freddy Garcia for some value. Also, it gives us depth and insurance against the kind of injuries that killed 2006.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#5

Posted: October 03, 2006, 5:47 PM Post
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This would be an "overpaid guy for an overpaid guy" type deal that seems plausible if Jenkins is going to be moved. Garcia is really, really not worth $10 mil though.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#6

Posted: October 03, 2006, 11:52 PM Post
Posts: 1326
Garcia was the Sox best pitcher down the stretch. They are looking to move salary. How about this?

Garcia and Cotts for Jenks and Davis

We trade Garcia for Davis and Jenks for the lefty reliever we need. The salaries just about match.

Sheets
FA
Cappy
Garcia
Villanueva

Where do I sign up?


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#7

Posted: October 04, 2006, 12:00 AM Post
Posts: 208
Sheets
FA
Cappy
Garcia
Villanueva


Where's Bush?


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#8

Posted: October 04, 2006, 12:00 AM Post
Posts: 1326
God, I forgot about him.

Well, do we need a FA pitcher then?


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#9

Posted: October 04, 2006, 2:14 AM Post
Posts: 12645
endaround,

Is K/9 inning more important than WHIP, ERA, K/BB ratio and Winning percentage?

Garcia has the edge on Davis in all those categories both career wise and in 2006, by a fairly wide margin.

He also had a better OPS against vs. Davis in 06 and career wise and a better BAA career wise. The only other stat Davis had the edge in 06 was BAA, by one point, .266 for Davis to .267 for Garcia.

In 2007, Garcia was 17-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.81 K/BB.
That was facing the AL with no pitchers batting.

Davis was 11-11, 4.91 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 1.55 K/BB. That was pitching in the weak NL with pitchers batting.

How can anyone objectively say Davis is the pitcher Garcia is?

Even Davis' supposed value as innings eater has been surpassed by Garcia who has pitched over 200 innings every year since 2001 and more than Davis in each of those seasons.

By the way, heard this tidbit on Chicago radio over the weekend. Garcia pitched through a lengthy period this year with a tired arm due to the nearly 250 innings pitched in 2005 and time spent in World Baseball Classic. His arm was feeling much better down the stretch when he was nearly unhittable in the month of September.

Doug Davis has a better K/9 inning career ratio than Warren Spahn. Does that make Davis better than Spahn? I don't think so.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#10

Posted: October 04, 2006, 2:53 AM Post
Posts: 10289
I said Garcia isn't any better than Davis, and he isn't.

In 2004, Davis had a PRAA of 23, Garcis was 18
in 2005 Davis had a PRAA of 9, Garcia was 10
in 2006, Davis had a PRAA of -3 Garcia was 2.

But Garcia costs three times as much so he has that going for him.


And yes K/9 is more important because its the best predictor of future success.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#11

Posted: October 05, 2006, 2:41 AM Post
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I said Garcia isn't any better than Davis, and he isn't.


Go ahead and make that claim. I will take Freddy over Doug every day. Doug had a spike in his performance the last couple of years. This year he reverted back to his old self and that is at best an average arm. Freddy can eat up innings and give us a vet with some post season time.

We are trying to get to the next level Davis will not get us there, might as well try someone else.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#12

Posted: October 05, 2006, 6:02 AM Post
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Doug had a spike in his performance the last couple of years. This year he reverted back to his old self and that is at best an average arm. Freddy can eat up innings and give us a vet with some post season time.
Garcia has by no means been consistently great. He peaked in 2001, then was below league average for 2 years before 2 solid years and than reverting back to league average this year.
If there was a deal to trade Davis for Garcia, salary was even, and neither was signed beyond on year, I'd make it. I just don't think Garcia is enough of an upgrade to be worth several extra million.
Postseason experience, to me, is worth close to nothing. A bunch of rookie marlins beat the Yankees a couple years ago.
If we need postseason experience so badly, we can sign Kenny Lofton.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#13

Posted: October 05, 2006, 6:12 AM Post
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Actually, the guy I'd target on the White Sox is Javier Vazquez. His FIP this year was 3.91. He had a high BABIP and a low LOB%, which resulted in his high (4.84) ERA. In comparison, Freddy Garcia's FIP was 4.64. Vazquez is signed to a bigger contract however (1 year left / $12.5 million verse 1 year left / $10 million for Garcia), so we would need to get a few million from the Sox for the deal to go down.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#14

Posted: October 05, 2006, 8:01 AM Post
Posts: 9
Stats or no stats. Doug Davis has been released by two AL teams and misses his spots by more than any pitcher Ive seen. He struck out a lot of batters last year because he faced alot of batters. Watching a pitcher with poor stuff and poor control is torture. Freddy Garcia is by far better. It would be fun to ask some scouts who they prefer. I have a feeling it would be hard to find one for Davis.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#15

Posted: October 05, 2006, 10:23 AM Post
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Yeah, I'd sure love to get a guy like Garcia with much better stuff than Davis.

K/9, 2004-2006
Davis - 7.57
Garcia - 6.40

FIP, 2006
Davis - 4.43
Garcia - 4.64

I pretty much consider these two pitchers similar. If anything, an edge to Garcia, but not enough to take on his salary.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#16

Posted: October 06, 2006, 1:16 AM Post
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Actually, the guy I'd target on the White Sox is Javier Vazquez

He has become a 5 inning pitcher he gets hit 2nd and 3rd time through a lineup. In no way do I want a part of him.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#17

Posted: October 06, 2006, 2:15 AM Post
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Actually, he averaged 6.1 innings per start, and can still go 7 to 8 innings.

I'll give you the third time throught the lineup (9.50 ERA / .339 BAA), but not the second (3.59 ERA / .241 BAA)


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#18

Posted: October 06, 2006, 5:17 AM Post
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Most guys' peripherals depend somewhat on their makeup. K/9 (and K/BB), for example, is much more important for a flamethrower than it is for a knuckleballer. The peripherals interact to form the ERA, and are most valuable when you're trying to assess whether or not an ERA is an accurate picture.
Some guys can "pitch to contact" and still be very effective, just like some can walk quite a few batters and make up for it with a low number of hits allowed. Curt Schilling can give up a lot of homers and fly balls but still have great overall numbers.
ERA is essentially the main results section in a scientific manuscript, but to see where it came from and whether it seems to be valid or an anomoly, you read the methods section and look at secondary measures.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#19

Posted: October 06, 2006, 9:53 AM Post
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Quote:
I said Garcia isn't any better than Davis, and he isn't.

In 2004, Davis had a PRAA of 23, Garcis was 18
in 2005 Davis had a PRAA of 9, Garcia was 10
in 2006, Davis had a PRAA of -3 Garcia was 2.

But Garcia costs three times as much so he has that going for him.

If you're going to use obscure stats to make your point, can you at least explain them. Its hard to agree with your points when I don't understand what the stats you bring up mean.


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Offline  Jenkins for Freddy Garcia
#20

Posted: October 06, 2006, 12:18 PM Post
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RAA:
Quote:
Runs above average. At its simplest, this would be the league runs per inning, times individual innings, minus individual runs allowed. However, we have gone one step beyond that, because being 50 runs above average in 1930, in the Baker Bowl, doesn't have the same win impact as being +50 in the 1968 Astrodome. The league runs per inning need to be adjusted for park and team hitting (and difficulty, for the alltime RAA), and then you can multiply by individual innings and subtract individual runs. Finally, that quantity needs to be win-adjusted. See win-adjustment.


PRAA:
Quote:
Pitcher-only runs above average. The difference between this and RAA is that RAA is really a total defense statistic, and PRAA tries to isolate the pitching component from the fielding portion. It relies on the pitching/fielding breakdown being run for the team, league, and individual. The individual pitching + defense total is compared to a league average pitcher + team average defense, and the difference is win-adjusted.


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