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Junior Guerra

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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#21

Posted: November 18, 2016, 4:27 PM Post
Posts: 3487
Remember, hes a pre-Arb paid Pitcher. To worry about 200IP from a 550k? Paid guy. Even if he pitches 25starts total again and to his 3.7 Fip. That is worth well more than 550k. These potential types of same kind of outlook are getting 12-16million in FA market. The excess value Guerra provides a team in dollars just suggests he's on a 1st-2nd round selected player drafted in last 2 seasons. And thats just on this season alone. He'll have another pre-arb season for 2018 to add to that. Smaller market teams have to be all in to him at the chance. Miami, Cincy, Pittsburgh, Minnesota like I suggested make a lot of sense. Even Philly. What is a concern he'll regress, also begs the question, what if he doesnt? What if he pitches under 3.5ERA in 24+starts? You're not getting him for the price being discussed right now.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#22

Posted: November 18, 2016, 7:11 PM Post
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Please. Please. Just package him with Braun and bring us Urias. I know Urias is a tough-get but this is an example of how we could have an avenue to a cornerstone-ace and the Dodgers already have interest in Braun. Throw cash in if you have to. I know it's a pipe dream though but my point is this is a perfect situation to spice up Braun to net something really substantial.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#23

Posted: November 18, 2016, 7:14 PM Post
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There are risks with acquiring Guerra, but those risks are mitigated by the fact that he is cheap and under team control for a while. He doesn't have a track record, but guys who produce at a high level for >100 IP at the major league level AND are cheap and under team control for a while are rarely if ever available. There are quality starters with a longer track record who are available, but they will cost $15-20M/year. A quality major league starter who makes less than $1M/year is a huge, huge asset.

Simply the fact that he is cheap, under control, and has produced at a high level as a starter in the majors makes it highly unlikely to me that the Brewers can't obtain a couple of top prospects for him. There are risks with Guerra, but there are risks with prospects too. Guerra may flame out, but so do prospects.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#24

Posted: November 18, 2016, 8:22 PM Post
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sheetskout said:
Please. Please. Just package him with Braun and bring us Urias. I know Urias is a tough-get but this is an example of how we could have an avenue to a cornerstone-ace and the Dodgers already have interest in Braun. Throw cash in if you have to. I know it's a pipe dream though but my point is this is a perfect situation to spice up Braun to net something really substantial.



A pitcher who's service clock has already began? This rebuild needs more than one possible good pitcher. Maybe if some other guys have already shown they're ready to contend but we are just not there yet.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#25

Posted: November 18, 2016, 9:39 PM Post
Posts: 544
Location: Milwaukee
So 3-4 months of MLB success at age 31 (first season) lands a Top 50? I said 1-2wks ago if I get one Top 100 I immediately accept. He is 32 next year and his career up to last year wasn't great even though he had recent bright spots. Trade him now if the offer is solid


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#26

Posted: November 19, 2016, 1:39 AM Post
Posts: 5762
Location: Kenosha, WI
Brew4U said:
sheetskout said:
Please. Please. Just package him with Braun and bring us Urias. I know Urias is a tough-get but this is an example of how we could have an avenue to a cornerstone-ace and the Dodgers already have interest in Braun. Throw cash in if you have to. I know it's a pipe dream though but my point is this is a perfect situation to spice up Braun to net something really substantial.



A pitcher who's service clock has already began? This rebuild needs more than one possible good pitcher. Maybe if some other guys have already shown they're ready to contend but we are just not there yet.


Yah a pitcher 100x better than anything in this entire organization. We need to bring in talent. If the Dodgers were dumb enough to trade Urias Stearns would be all over that. Arcia has his clock started and so does Villar. We aren't going to build a team full of players hitting the majors at the same time. Some will have less service time and some a lot. To avoid Urias over a started service clock(literally just started) would be tragic.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#27

Posted: November 19, 2016, 7:19 AM Post
Posts: 9061
I agree that if Urias was available for Braun and Guerra I think Stearns would and should pull the trigger without hesitation. That would be a tremendous acquisition to get your star ace of the future and worth the price, but more than likely it is a pipe dream.

Urias' service time really isn't much of a concern anyway since he didn't accrue a full season in 2016. He still is under club control for 6 more seasons.

Regardless, Stearns' rebuild plan has been all about acquiring the most possible talent at every possible level and I can't imagine he would pass on a possible ace who was the #4 overall prospect in baseball before he lost his eligibility simply because his service clock was started last year.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#28

Posted: November 21, 2016, 6:41 AM Post
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While I am very much in favor of the Brewers cashing in on Guerra's value, but I have a feeling Stearns is likely to keep him heading into the season unless a team puts forth a very solid offer. Admittedly I have no idea what type of offers Guerra is garnering, but with the asset value of prospects seemingly on the rise I am not convinced someone would give up a top 50ish prospect as a headliner for him.

Here are some hypothetical prospect "headliners" I could see offered in a deal for Guerra from a few of the teams in need of starting pitching:

Royals: Josh Staumont or Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates: Cole Tucker

Orioles: Jomar Reyes or Ryan Mountcastle

Dodgers: Willie Calhoun

Rangers: Yohander Mendez

While some of those players as trade headliners are intriguing, Mendez is the only one I would consider a home run. If they were to entertain trade offers for Guerra it might come down to which team has the best secondary pieces in their system for the Brewers to mine.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#29

Posted: November 21, 2016, 8:56 AM Post
Posts: 9061
Eye Black at Night said:
While I am very much in favor of the Brewers cashing in on Guerra's value, but I have a feeling Stearns is likely to keep him heading into the season unless a team puts forth a very solid offer. Admittedly I have no idea what type of offers Guerra is garnering, but with the asset value of prospects seemingly on the rise I am not convinced someone would give up a top 50ish prospect as a headliner for him.

Here are some hypothetical prospect "headliners" I could see offered in a deal for Guerra from a few of the teams in need of starting pitching:

Royals: Josh Staumont or Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates: Cole Tucker

Orioles: Jomar Reyes or Ryan Mountcastle

Dodgers: Willie Calhoun

Rangers: Yohander Mendez

While some of those players as trade headliners are intriguing, Mendez is the only one I would consider a home run. If they were to entertain trade offers for Guerra it might come down to which team has the best secondary pieces in their system for the Brewers to mine.


I would take Mendez for sure. A low top 100 isn't going to cut it unless it's supported by some strong secondary pieces. There's no reason for us to expect less than a similar value to what we got for Will Smith.

Stearns has most of the leverage here. He doesn't need to aggressively shop Guerra, if the return is underwhelming he should be perfect comfortable risking the chance that Guerra will regress. The upside is that if he doesn't, he'll cost even more to interested teams at this time next season.

Teams can be as skeptical of Guerra as they want, and I'm sure they will be, but the fact of the matter is that starting pitching is a huge need for many contending teams, it's a very weak FA class, and it's rare that a sub 3.00 ERA starter with basically a whole career left of cheap control becomes available in trade for less than a top 25 prospect. If teams aren't willing to value Guerra in that way despite their concerns, there's no reason for Stearns to pull the trigger now.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#30

Posted: November 21, 2016, 10:34 AM Post
Posts: 5762
Location: Kenosha, WI
Junior Guerra isn't a sub 3.00 pitcher. He isn't even close. All 30 teams know that...even Stearns. If he tries to value him like one he is overplaying his hand. He is closer and more likely to be a 4.00 pitcher.

Guerra is attractive in this market, but more realistically you can hope for a 3.75 ERA type pitcher. With good risk he could regress of that or spend lots of time on the DL.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#31

Posted: November 21, 2016, 1:00 PM Post
Posts: 9061
MrTPlush said:
Junior Guerra isn't a sub 3.00 pitcher. He isn't even close. All 30 teams know that...even Stearns. If he tries to value him like one he is overplaying his hand. He is closer and more likely to be a 4.00 pitcher.

Guerra is attractive in this market, but more realistically you can hope for a 3.75 ERA type pitcher. With good risk he could regress of that or spend lots of time on the DL.


I'm factually stating what he was in 2016. As of right now it is fact that he is a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher with 5 remaining years of control.

Of course a regression is possible at best and likely at worse, so he isn't going to be valued like a typical pitcher with the same numbers, and that's why I said he isn't going to command a top 25 prospect in return. Teams will have reservations, but we also don't NEED to deal him, so they need to give in more than we do if they want him.

While Stearns likely can't demand most team's #1 prospect in return, he can and should value him more than the hypothetical 4.00 ERA pitcher that other teams might see him as.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#32

Posted: November 28, 2016, 4:22 PM Post
Posts: 707
As good as Guerra was last year, I don't trust him to sustain that level for any length of time. Between age and elbow issues possibly caused by relying on a splitter, he could easily decline or find himself needing TJ by the end of the season. If Sterns gets a top 100, or a near top 100 plus a lottery ticket, he should take it. I hope Guerra keeps pitching well, at least into his arby years so he can make some money, but I just wouldn't bet on it.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#33

Posted: November 28, 2016, 11:26 PM Post
Posts: 197
MadScientist said:
As good as Guerra was last year, I don't trust him to sustain that level for any length of time. Between age and elbow issues possibly caused by relying on a splitter, he could easily decline or find himself needing TJ by the end of the season. If Sterns gets a top 100, or a near top 100 plus a lottery ticket, he should take it. I hope Guerra keeps pitching well, at least into his arby years so he can make some money, but I just wouldn't bet on it.


After reading the past 10 or so posts, this seems to be the overall connotation associated with JR. And with that the GM's are feeling the same. Unless some team becomes desperate, I don't see JR going anywhere.

Now, if JR. is still pitching with those same peripherals come July. You will see teams pony up for sure. But the doubts that everyone is posting here I am sure they run true through every front office. If I'm a GM and I'm giving up a top 50 prospect for JR, why do it now when you can see if he's the real deal come July. It will cost you that same prospect either way and at least you can see if your A. a contending team. B) Is JR the real deal. You are still going to get all off those arby years. The only way it would pay is if you knew another team wanted him badly, and I don't see teams fighting for him. Based on what the last posters have written.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#34

Posted: November 29, 2016, 9:13 AM Post
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JR?


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#35

Posted: November 29, 2016, 9:24 AM Post
Posts: 280
turborickey said:
JR?


Junior = Jr. = JR


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#36

Posted: November 29, 2016, 9:50 AM Post
Posts: 2960
adambr2 said:
This is a great situation for the Brewers to capitalize on a bad free agency crop for starters to get a great return on someone who was worth nothing a few months ago. The best part is the ball is entirely in Stearns' court because Guerra has a ton of cheap control left so there's no rush to deal him if we don't get the offer we want. Still I think there are too many risks to holding on to him so if you can get anything close to an Espinoza type return you need to pull the trigger.


I agree. And not just with Guerra. I think Chase Anderson, Matt Garza, and even Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson should be on the market. Deal the two or three of them that bring the best returns, keep the other two, and start seeing what guys like Hader, Woodruff, Suter, Perrin, Jungmann, Wang, Ortiz, Perrin, and Lopez can do.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#37

Posted: November 29, 2016, 11:59 AM Post
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I agree on the pitchers just cant see any return for Anderson and Garza. Maybe mid level prospect for Nelson and or Peralta


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#38

Posted: November 29, 2016, 1:34 PM Post
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billymac said:
turborickey said:
JR?


Junior = Jr. = JR


Ok, I kept thinking JR were initials for someone since both letters were always capitalized... [embarassed]


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#39

Posted: March 21, 2017, 7:57 PM Post
Posts: 48
Junior Guerra mentioned as the 2nd best available starting pitcher behind Quintana in talks amongst execs

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/trade-talk ... 28002.html


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#40

Posted: March 22, 2017, 5:46 AM Post
Posts: 9061
Beat me to it. Two sources on there said he's the 2nd best SP option on the block. If no one will meet the price for Quintana and someone overpays for Guerra, it's probably the right move to do it if Stearns gets the right offer.


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