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Junior Guerra

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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#41

Posted: March 22, 2017, 6:43 AM Post
Posts: 10638
Guerra's 32 but his arm doesn't have half the innings in it that most guys his age have. A solid year of an ERA in the 3.50 range will only enhance his value for next winter as that would confirm his status as at worst a solid number 3 controllable starter. Trading your opening day pitcher less than two weeks before a season is unprecedented. Stearns needs to be blown away and not accept simply another prospect who'll be behind guys they already have.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#42

Posted: March 22, 2017, 6:58 AM Post
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I don't for see Guerra in the rotation past the trading deadline.


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Online  Re: Junior Guerra
#43

Posted: March 22, 2017, 7:11 AM Post
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Great to hear. Hopefully Junior starts off the season really strong and we can make a deal.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#44

Posted: March 22, 2017, 7:45 AM Post
Posts: 5716
JohnBriggs12 said:
Trading your opening day pitcher less than two weeks before a season is unprecedented. Stearns needs to be blown away and not accept simply another prospect who'll be behind guys they already have.


Is it unprecedented? I'm not challenging that, just honestly don't know. Hopefully a couple teams are real interested and just want to see a few quality starts out of him.

I do think we're at the point of the rebuild where positions start to come into play. Specifically, it just wouldn't make sense right now to get another OF. Pitching would be preferred, and I'm sure Stearns is looking at it that way.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#45

Posted: March 22, 2017, 9:11 AM Post
Posts: 3838
If we get a good offer for Guerra we have to move him. I don't expect a season like last and without a track record of success if he struggles his value doesn't just drop, it goes to zero. Granted I'm an overly cautious person but given his age I don't view him as a part of the long term future. When you're in full rebuild mode I don't think you hang onto anyone who doesn't look to be a long term part of the team.


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Online  Re: Junior Guerra
#46

Posted: March 22, 2017, 3:14 PM Post
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paul253 said:
If we get a good offer for Guerra we have to move him. I don't expect a season like last and without a track record of success if he struggles his value doesn't just drop, it goes to zero. Granted I'm an overly cautious person but given his age I don't view him as a part of the long term future. When you're in full rebuild mode I don't think you hang onto anyone who doesn't look to be a long term part of the team.

Couldn't agree more with this. The reality is the Brewers are likely going to fully open their window sometime in 2019 and Guerra will be 34 years old at that point. Granted Guerra will be a young 34 given the limited # of innings on his arm, but 34 nonetheless. If they can acquire something of value that can be ready in 2019, I am more than willing to throw Davies, Nelson, Peralta, Garza and Anderson in the rotation to begin 2017.

I trust Stearns will make the move if his asking price is met.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#47

Posted: March 22, 2017, 6:12 PM Post
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Guerra will not be around for long especially if he gets off to a good start.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#48

Posted: March 22, 2017, 8:54 PM Post
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Warning Track Power said:
paul253 said:
If we get a good offer for Guerra we have to move him. I don't expect a season like last and without a track record of success if he struggles his value doesn't just drop, it goes to zero. Granted I'm an overly cautious person but given his age I don't view him as a part of the long term future. When you're in full rebuild mode I don't think you hang onto anyone who doesn't look to be a long term part of the team.

Couldn't agree more with this. The reality is the Brewers are likely going to fully open their window sometime in 2019 and Guerra will be 34 years old at that point. Granted Guerra will be a young 34 given the limited # of innings on his arm, but 34 nonetheless. If they can acquire something of value that can be ready in 2019, I am more than willing to throw Davies, Nelson, Peralta, Garza and Anderson in the rotation to begin 2017.

I trust Stearns will make the move if his asking price is met.

Guerra is going to have to pitch well again this season for at least a few months before any team is going to give up something of real value for him.

So far Guerra has a very tiny track record vs big league hitters. If i'm a team looking for a starter, i'd want to see Guerra prove again that he can be productive. Taylor Jungmann had a 2.87 ERA after 18 starts in 2018. Guerra only made 20 starts last year.

Hopefully he pitches well until around the trade deadline and if so, he might fetch a quality return given he also gets paid spare change currently and for years to come.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#49

Posted: March 22, 2017, 10:02 PM Post
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He's clearly worth something being the no 2 option out there reportedly, where #1 is asking for Andrew Benintendo+.

I know how we feel on his age and thus to be traded, butif Stearns is a talent getter, well Guerra proven talent over Peralta, Nelson, Garza, and Anderson at this point. We don't have 4 better than #3s coming yet. Embracing the rebuild may be finishing, and adding wins within the ML roster for Stearns happening. Now Im not saying we're trading away prospects, but when you're acquiring talent and Guerra possesses and shows it, that mindset leans to saving him. Hes got more team control than Peralta, Nelson, and Anderson. The Cubs won the World Series with 37yr old John Lackey, 33 year old Jason Hammel the non #3+ getting 59GS.
Lackey makes 16mil this season Hammel 5million the 1st of a 2yr/14mil guaranteed deal. So 7mil avg.

Again, he has team control. And showing better talent than guys who have less. Saying he wont be around by the time the team becomes competitive is false. He can be around, and he can potentially be valuable in that team. He's a pre-arb paid SP. Peralta is not. Anderson will not be after this season. If you are going to move him, the trade deadline/ next offseason he can be the Jose Q at that point. With Stearns asking for a Victor Robles or Eloy Jimenez price.
Guys like him have accelerated this rebuild. Great seasons and returns on Smith, Thornburg, Lucroy, and Jeffress was the opposite of normal for Milw with trade pieces. Those guys produced and got back more value than heading in to 2016. Let these guys play and find out if they'll increase their value. All of them not named Davies can increase that we're barking to trade when higher talent is offered.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#50

Posted: March 23, 2017, 5:49 AM Post
Posts: 48
Guerra could be around for when we compete again, but arms are hard to predict and the splitter puts a lot of pressure on the elbow. What if Stearns waited until next years deadline on Will Smith and Thornburg...both have some arm issues going on right now we wouldn't have come close to the return we had. I do feel like last year at this point this seems like the Lucroy situation, granted Lucroy has way more of a track record. We see the high potential on him and GMs need to see a little more. I remember something came out last year that Jon daniels made a comment how Stearns was asking for 2 top prospects for Lucroy in the offseason last year and he sort of laughed it off, well it took 4 months of solid play to get them. If Stearns gets his asking now, by all means. I think he will be a trade deadline candidate though and hope Guerra continues pitching well for 3-4 months.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#51

Posted: March 23, 2017, 6:30 AM Post
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While ownership and management have publicly stated that 2017 year is another rebuilding year, players don't look at it that way and trading your announced opening day starter a week before the season is unsettling unless the return is perceived as having some immediate or at the least substantial impact in the very near future. If Guerra performs this year as he did in 2016, either of two things will happen. Most obvious is he'll become an even more attractive trade chip at this year's deadline, or he'll help put the Brewers in position to make noise this year, something that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand before a game has been played. If he performs poorly, it will be disappointing, but it's not like the Brewers are void of talent in their system right now as it is.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#52

Posted: March 23, 2017, 10:47 AM Post
Posts: 5716
JohnBriggs12 said:
While ownership and management have publicly stated that 2017 year is another rebuilding year, players don't look at it that way and trading your announced opening day starter a week before the season is unsettling unless the return is perceived as having some immediate or at the least substantial impact in the very near future. If Guerra performs this year as he did in 2016, either of two things will happen. Most obvious is he'll become an even more attractive trade chip at this year's deadline, or he'll help put the Brewers in position to make noise this year, something that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand before a game has been played. If he performs poorly, it will be disappointing, but it's not like the Brewers are void of talent in their system right now as it is.


Yea, they have enough talent. Time has come to stop acquiring it.

Also, what do you expect players to do if Guerra is traded? You really think they don't understand the position the Brewers are in? I mean, they know it's a rebuilding year. Anything can happen, but they're realistic- and also understand above all it is a business. You don't avoid making a trade that benefits the team long term because you're afraid some of your players may be shocked to learn they're not a WS contender.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#53

Posted: March 23, 2017, 12:51 PM Post
Posts: 161
So, what teams do we think might be the biggest suitors for Guerra this summer? Obviously, I realize we need to let the season play out here to see which teams are in contention and need pitching. But, is there a list of 2-3 teams that we can start to look at? Houston is the obvious, since it sounds like they are already sniffing around for more pitching help. I'm a bit surprised to see the Braves in these discussions though.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#54

Posted: March 23, 2017, 1:58 PM Post
Posts: 1784
danzig6767 said:
Warning Track Power said:
paul253 said:
If we get a good offer for Guerra we have to move him. I don't expect a season like last and without a track record of success if he struggles his value doesn't just drop, it goes to zero. Granted I'm an overly cautious person but given his age I don't view him as a part of the long term future. When you're in full rebuild mode I don't think you hang onto anyone who doesn't look to be a long term part of the team.

Couldn't agree more with this. The reality is the Brewers are likely going to fully open their window sometime in 2019 and Guerra will be 34 years old at that point. Granted Guerra will be a young 34 given the limited # of innings on his arm, but 34 nonetheless. If they can acquire something of value that can be ready in 2019, I am more than willing to throw Davies, Nelson, Peralta, Garza and Anderson in the rotation to begin 2017.

I trust Stearns will make the move if his asking price is met.

Guerra is going to have to pitch well again this season for at least a few months before any team is going to give up something of real value for him.

So far Guerra has a very tiny track record vs big league hitters. If i'm a team looking for a starter, i'd want to see Guerra prove again that he can be productive. Taylor Jungmann had a 2.87 ERA after 18 starts in 2018. Guerra only made 20 starts last year.

Hopefully he pitches well until around the trade deadline and if so, he might fetch a quality return given he also gets paid spare change currently and for years to come.

I think this is right. I'm glad DS didn't rush to trade Guerra in the offseason. I think taking him into this season and waiting for the deadline is a good bet:

Best-case scenario: Guerra puts up similar numbers to what he put up last year. At that point he's close to an established ace, probably a #2 on a contender. His value grows a lot.

Medium-case scenario: Guerra puts up something like a 3.60 ERA with corresponding peripherals. This is what I think danzig is right about -- I think under this scenario he's still worth more at the 2017 deadline than he was in the offseason, because he's proved that he's a healthy, quality rotation guy, capable of peaking like he did last year and sustaining at a lower but still useful level.

Worst-case scenario: He gets hurt or craters, putting up an ERA north of 4 with corresponding peripherals. If this happens then you wish you took the best offer in the offseason.

He made good adjustments last year, and he has a quality arsenal of pitches. Worst-case scenario could still happen, but I think Stearns was smart to bet against it.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#55

Posted: March 23, 2017, 2:41 PM Post
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gregmag said:
I think this is right. I'm glad DS didn't rush to trade Guerra in the offseason. I think taking him into this season and waiting for the deadline is a good bet:

Best-case scenario: Guerra puts up similar numbers to what he put up last year. At that point he's close to an established ace, probably a #2 on a contender. His value grows a lot.

Medium-case scenario: Guerra puts up something like a 3.60 ERA with corresponding peripherals. This is what I think danzig is right about -- I think under this scenario he's still worth more at the 2017 deadline than he was in the offseason, because he's proved that he's a healthy, quality rotation guy, capable of peaking like he did last year and sustaining at a lower but still useful level.

Worst-case scenario: He gets hurt or craters, putting up an ERA north of 4 with corresponding peripherals. If this happens then you wish you took the best offer in the offseason.

He made good adjustments last year, and he has a quality arsenal of pitches. Worst-case scenario could still happen, but I think Stearns was smart to bet against it.

My guess is your medium case scenario.

That Guerra pitches pretty well, not as good as last, but well enough that he's still attractive to a number of teams given starting pitching is always in demand and especially dirt cheap starting pitching.

If that were to happen i think Stearns could easily get at least one top 100 prospect maybe in that 50-75 range along with an intriguing throw in or two. Try trading him now instead, other teams are still going to be able to low ball Stearns more because Guerra only has a track record of 20 starts last year against hitters who had never seen him before.

On a risk/reward scale, i think keeping Guerra in hopes that he does well again this year to increase his value trumps selling him off right now for whatever is out these.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#56

Posted: March 23, 2017, 3:30 PM Post
Posts: 6236
Location: Kenosha, WI
Kind of pointless to decide whether it is a good or bad idea since we have nothing to go off to know what is currently offered. If we had some rumors maybe, but we really don't.


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Online  Re: Junior Guerra
#57

Posted: March 23, 2017, 3:37 PM Post
Posts: 9890
Well, so much for his trade value now.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#58

Posted: March 23, 2017, 4:05 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Well, so much for his trade value now.


??


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#59

Posted: March 23, 2017, 5:01 PM Post
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turborickey said:
adambr2 said:
Well, so much for his trade value now.


??

3.2 ip 10 h 12 r 7 er 2bb 1k 4hr

His line for todays game. Jungmann didnt help in relief by letting all 3 inherited runners score.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#60

Posted: March 24, 2017, 10:19 AM Post
Posts: 5716
MrTPlush said:
Kind of pointless to decide whether it is a good or bad idea since we have nothing to go off to know what is currently offered. If we had some rumors maybe, but we really don't.


Yea, I don't see it so much as a best/medium/worst case. As always, Stearns has a value in mind what Guerra is worth. If he is offered that today, he takes it. It's not like he's looking at it as how much risk he's taking, trying to get more later, etc.

He did the same thing with Braun, Lucroy, and everyone else. Sometimes you get the offer that's acceptable, sometimes not. But the word gets out you're not playing around. Guessing Stearns has the reputation already he's someone you can deal with, but you're not going to pull the wool over his eyes.


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