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Junior Guerra

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Offline  Junior Guerra
#1

Posted: November 18, 2016, 9:18 AM Post
Posts: 291
Jon Morosi reporting multiple teams in talks with Brewers about Junior. What type of return could/should be had?

Top 50 player?
Top 100?
2 Top 100's?

Drew Pomeranz brought back Anderson Espinoza who was a top 50 player.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#2

Posted: November 18, 2016, 9:30 AM Post
Posts: 179
Boy, this has to be one of the hardest decisions of the offseason for DS. You've got a guy who is under team control now for many years (albeit at an older age due to his unique situation), and pitched like a true ace pitcher last year after getting called up. Yet, there is also that risk with his age and his history, that makes you a bit nervous about holding onto him and not taking advantage of what might be his peak value right now?

If a team offers you a Top 50 prospect, or even one Top 100 prospect and another borderline Top 100 guy - you'd have to pull the trigger on that, right? I mean, if you can turn a guy that you picked up off the scrap heap last winter for big time prospects, you'd be dumb not to do that, right? Still though, it would be hard to see the Brewers part ways with a guy that looked so good this past year and is under control for many more years. Because of that, I'd demand a lot if I were DS.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#3

Posted: November 18, 2016, 9:30 AM Post
Posts: 438
Heres the Link.

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/799627194129674240


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#4

Posted: November 18, 2016, 9:37 AM Post
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The Brewers are in a bit of a tough spot with Guerra. He probably has more value this time next year if he's able to repeat his 2016 performance and remain healthy, but do you trust him to do both or even either of those things? Even for half a year?

I tend to lean towards getting what you can now. I don't think he'll be part of the next Brewers playoff team, and his elbow sure seems like a ticking time bomb. And in a way the Brewers are playing with house money on this anyway as they picked him up for just about nothing.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#5

Posted: November 18, 2016, 9:47 AM Post
Posts: 10683
"Multiple" teams don't seem worried about his elbow. He doesn't have a ton of innings on that arm. If a team goes crazy sure, but his value will skyrocket if he repeats his 2016 numbers. It's worth the risk getting another year out of him, and evaluating not only him but where this team is a year from now. Landscape could be a lot different.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#6

Posted: November 18, 2016, 10:01 AM Post
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Even if his elbow isn't an issue, there's still the issue of repeating his 2016 season. I believe he had an unsustainably low BABIP (.250) and HR/FB (8.3%) in 2016. Very few pitchers are able to maintain either of those at those levels over multiple seasons, and even fewer could maintain both. So he is very likely to either give up more hits or give up home runs at a higher rate in 2017, or both.

I wouldn't put money on Guerra putting up an ERA under 3.25, much less another 2.81. The question is how much higher is the ERA going to be, and how high can it go before he has less value in the future than he does now?

I certainly won't fault the Brewers if they hold on to him, there are lots of good reasons to do so.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#7

Posted: November 18, 2016, 10:34 AM Post
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This could be a very interesting trade for the Brewers. Hard to gauge the market on this one in terms of what he is actually worth. After seeing what Estrada has done in Toronto the past two seasons, it sure would be nice to capitalize on Guerra and get a good return back.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#8

Posted: November 18, 2016, 10:48 AM Post
Posts: 3550
This is good news. Multiple means for sure a top 50 if not even a top 35 prospect due to over bidding. If not that high than multiple around 65-100.
Problem is my guess to teams that would bid on him are the likes of Miami or Minnesota who may not be willing to part with their top 2 or 3 Prospects. Which then leaves outside top 100 rankings but do have some quality that aren't ranked.

I'd love for Pittsburgh or Cincy to take a crack for Guerra. Guerra sort of hits that type of older SPs they've used to fill out rotations. Cincy, just has terrible SPs so an upgrade is obvious to trade for. It'll be interesting to see because you'd expect an overpay for Guerra from whoever trades for him


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#9

Posted: November 18, 2016, 10:51 AM Post
Posts: 10111
This is a great situation for the Brewers to capitalize on a bad free agency crop for starters to get a great return on someone who was worth nothing a few months ago. The best part is the ball is entirely in Stearns' court because Guerra has a ton of cheap control left so there's no rush to deal him if we don't get the offer we want. Still I think there are too many risks to holding on to him so if you can get anything close to an Espinoza type return you need to pull the trigger.


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Online  Re: Junior Guerra
#10

Posted: November 18, 2016, 11:01 AM Post
Posts: 6353
Location: Kenosha, WI
I think you guys might be taking that report way to seriously.

1) Just because teams are inquiring doesn't mean they have no concerns about his elbow. I can bet every single team has a lot of concern and their offer will reflect that.

2) Just because some teams inquire doesn't mean a great bidding war is taking place or will ever take place.

3)He is still lacks a track record, older, and a pretty large injury risk.

That being said I think they can get a solid return and it is a very easy choice to trade him. He won't be on the next competing team and it just isn't worth risking him getting injured or regressing. Add in the weak SP market this winter and there is little reason to keep him.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#11

Posted: November 18, 2016, 11:09 AM Post
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Plus it opens up more opportunities in the rotation for Peralta, Garza, Anderson, and Nelson. Hooray!

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Online  Re: Junior Guerra
#12

Posted: November 18, 2016, 11:10 AM Post
Posts: 6353
Location: Kenosha, WI
Brew4U said:
Plus it opens up more opportunities in the rotation for Peralta, Garza, Anderson, and Nelson. Hooray!


We will have a spot for Charlie Morton!!!


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#13

Posted: November 18, 2016, 11:20 AM Post
Posts: 167
Brew4U said:
Plus it opens up more opportunities in the rotation for Peralta, Garza, Anderson, and Nelson. Hooray!


Don't forget Jungmann and Cravy.

That said if a team is willing to part with a prospect in the 40-80 range for Guerra, I think you have to take that deal. Yes he could turn into one of those guys who kinda of comes out of nowhere and becomes really good in his 30's (RA Dickey for instance), but odds are much higher that he regresses and/or gets hurt.

Better to take some winnings off the table, lest you walk away at the end of the night empty handed.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#14

Posted: November 18, 2016, 11:50 AM Post
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And That said:
The Brewers are in a bit of a tough spot with Guerra. He probably has more value this time next year if he's able to repeat his 2016 performance and remain healthy, but do you trust him to do both or even either of those things? Even for half a year?

I tend to lean towards getting what you can now. I don't think he'll be part of the next Brewers playoff team, and his elbow sure seems like a ticking time bomb. And in a way the Brewers are playing with house money on this anyway as they picked him up for just about nothing.


I think another thing to mention is this is an incredibly weak free agent market. I haven't looked at the market next year but it would be almost impossible to have it be worse than this year.

Teams are going to be looking for talent and might overpay in the trade market to get it since there are so few options in free agency.

Who knows what the Sox are going to do with Sale and Quintana. Are there a ton of options out there after them? Maybe Greinke and his huge contract? Maybe Verlander and his huge contract?

You have to think at least one team is going to be willing to pay for Guerra because he's cheap and was good last year. They obviously won't give us trading an ace value but maybe like a top 75 prospect and a couple of lottery tickets are possible and if it is possible, I'd take that and run.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#15

Posted: November 18, 2016, 11:55 AM Post
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IF the brewers can snag a top 50 player or 2 top 100's, i'd trade him.

History is on the side of him not repeating 2016 next season.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#16

Posted: November 18, 2016, 12:01 PM Post
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None of us can say what type of offers the Brewers will get for Guerra - not one of us. We don't know if anyone would give up what any of us would consider a, "top prospect", and we don't know that no one will; any statement of certainty, should be tempered.

That, is precisely why the Brewers are doing the right thing in going through this process. Guerra is just plain unique - he isn't young, but he isn't old, he surprised everyone and pitched really well, but can he put up 200 IP - it's just a unique mix.

The Brewers should find out, and they are.


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Online  Re: Junior Guerra
#17

Posted: November 18, 2016, 12:06 PM Post
Posts: 6353
Location: Kenosha, WI
This is the wrong time to get greedy and demand multiple top prospects or a top 50 prospect. Honestly if you get a deal headed by a Top 100 prospect or something close it better be accepted. Obviously I hope for more, but that is the minimum. Junior Guerra's ERA was a fluke from last year for the stats he put up. Best case scenario you have a 3.50 ERA pitcher. That is assuming he doesn't regress any from last year or the league doesn't figure him out. He could easily end up a 4+ ERA pitcher. Other teams know Guerra isn't an ace and he didn't even pitch like it last year. Sure his ERA says ace, but every other stat says solid #3 starter. Great chance of inuury or regression.

Play hard ball, but in your mind know you are taking the best offer.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#18

Posted: November 18, 2016, 12:07 PM Post
Posts: 291
Hoping they are trying to push through a trade to clear another 40 man spot before 4pm today...for the right return of course


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#19

Posted: November 18, 2016, 2:48 PM Post
Posts: 444
Location: Madison, WI
I'd put his value at 1 "top 10 organizational prospect" plus a better "role player" prospect. Wouldn't completely rule out a top 100 prospect, but I think if that happens it would only be a pitcher that might be a starter but probably projects as a reliever. As far as dealing him now or later, no doubt that his value would increase (and perhaps dramatically) if he repeats his 2016 performance during the first part of 2017. But since he was shelved for awhile late last season, I'd lean towards trading him now if a reasonable offer came along.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#20

Posted: November 18, 2016, 4:12 PM Post
Posts: 10111
JosephC said:
I'd put his value at 1 "top 10 organizational prospect" plus a better "role player" prospect. Wouldn't completely rule out a top 100 prospect, but I think if that happens it would only be a pitcher that might be a starter but probably projects as a reliever. As far as dealing him now or later, no doubt that his value would increase (and perhaps dramatically) if he repeats his 2016 performance during the first part of 2017. But since he was shelved for awhile late last season, I'd lean towards trading him now if a reasonable offer came along.


Sounds like what the Yankees got for Brian McCann. If that's it, I'd wait, though top 10 organizational prospect is pretty broad depending on the team. On ours that's close to a top 100.


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