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Junior Guerra

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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#61

Posted: March 24, 2017, 1:27 PM Post
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The Rangers rotation is Hamels and Darvish and then a bunch of nobody's/injuries waiting to happen/already injureds. I wouldn't be surprised if they are looking to further stock up our minor league system come July.


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Online  Re: Junior Guerra
#62

Posted: March 26, 2017, 7:37 AM Post
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What's missing from this debate is the fact that every starting pitcher with any type of "track record" on the trading block has a contract well into the seven figures if not eight figures. Guerra is still pre-arb; he's not just under control for five more seasons, he's essentially league minimum for this season and next.

Anyone can take on his contract - anyone. Unlike every available starting pitcher with a "track record" there is zero financial risk with acquiring him. There is performance risk with everyone, but whether it is Garza or Sale or whomever else is available there is financial risk in the acquisition in addition to performance risk.

Prospects have performance risk, but they have value because they have no financial risk. Guerra washing out 3-4 years from now when he hits 35 is no different than the average prospect who washes out at 27 because he isn't good enough.


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Online  Re: Junior Guerra
#63

Posted: March 26, 2017, 7:52 AM Post
Posts: 7979
LouisEly said:
Guerra washing out 3-4 years from now when he hits 35 is no different than the average prospect who washes out at 27 because he isn't good enough.


While I agree with the cost control aspect of Guerra certainly benefiting his trade value, to me there's still some differences here because of Guerra's age. Yes, an average prospect can flame out too, but the other side of the coin gives the prospect about 10-15 years of potential value if he pans out.

Guerra is certainly on the clock because of his age. I like him a lot, but even if he becomes what we hope, there's probably 5 years of value here, tops.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#64

Posted: March 26, 2017, 9:34 AM Post
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All players only have 6 years of value. If you perform amazingly, you will hit the free agent market and demand big money. Only value of having the player first is that you can give them an extension early on like we did with Braun or lucroy but there is still risk with that. Guerra has immense value because he is cheap and mostly cost controlled for the remainder of his career. A team like the rays could deal for him now and trade him again in 2 years for essentially the same level of prospects. I think most of us here are under valuing Guerra due to the unique nature of his age, production, and price.


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Online  Re: Junior Guerra
#65

Posted: March 26, 2017, 9:43 AM Post
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chewy522 said:
All players only have 6 years of value. If you perform amazingly, you will hit the free agent market and demand big money. Only value of having the player first is that you can give them an extension early on like we did with Braun or lucroy but there is still risk with that. Guerra has immense value because he is cheap and mostly cost controlled for the remainder of his career. A team like the rays could deal for him now and trade him again in 2 years for essentially the same level of prospects. I think most of us here are under valuing Guerra due to the unique nature of his age, production, and price.


Yes and no. If he's your homegrown guy, your Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw, for instance, you stand a better chance at keeping him for his career than every other team. Like we did with Braun.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#66

Posted: April 04, 2017, 4:23 PM Post
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Prospects have performance risk, but they have value because they have no financial risk. Guerra washing out 3-4 years from now when he hits 35 is no different than the average prospect who washes out at 27 because he isn't good enough


They have value because of their contract but their greater value comes from how they actually play. If a prospect has three below average years in the minors then has one great season are you going to value him the same as you value a prospect who had four good to great seasons? Of course not. So how is Junior Guerra any different? His team friendly contract doesn't erase the fact that he had hardly any success, even in the minors, until he turned 31 years old. One season of success doesn't necessarily make him a valuable trade piece, no matter how team friendly his contract is. There are one year wonders all the time. Hell Taylor Jungmann was one. Teams generally want to see more than that one year before they give up anything significant. That's why if anyone was willing to give up anything significant for Guerra the Brewers should have jumped in it.

It's all a moot point now as Guerra is out for up to 6 weeks and will have to rebuild whatever trade value he had.


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Offline  Re: Junior Guerra
#67

Posted: April 05, 2017, 7:36 PM Post
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Guerra injury.

#BrewerLuck


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