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Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??

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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#61

Posted: May 08, 2017, 8:32 AM Post
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Embarrassment really doesn't matter this year, if Garza is producing he will and should be traded.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#62

Posted: May 08, 2017, 9:30 AM Post
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superfly said:
Watching this pitching staff, i'd prefer we keep Garza. Somebody has to take the mound every 5th day that isn't a total embarassment to the franchise. Much rather trade Nelson or Peralta if there is even anyone out there that is dumb enough to bite on their age.


Is that you Matt?

Throwing your rotation mates under the bus, perhaps? lol


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#63

Posted: May 08, 2017, 9:35 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
I'd be thrilled with 3-4 million in salary relief and the opening in the rotation for the starters knocking on the door. Expecting more is dreaming.


That $3-4 million in salary relief will likely just be offset in 3 or 4 years in arbitration costs for the guys knocking on the door that have to come up early. Of course, if this is the best you can get, then take it...I'd just bring some AAAA fodder in though to finish the majority of this year and then get the important guys up next year.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#64

Posted: May 08, 2017, 10:14 AM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
If he keeps pitching well I would expect an Aaron Hill type trade at the bare minimum(with us not picking up much if any salary). Starting pitching is usually a pretty valuable commodity at the deadline. Actually if he keeps up a sub-4 ERA he might be one of the most attractive options out there for teams. Not saying that translates into a big package, but teams will be knocking on the door more than some might think. His health from here to the deadline will be incredibly important too.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#65

Posted: May 08, 2017, 1:56 PM Post
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I have to say I was kinda disappointed in the lack of deals made by Stearns during the offseason, but is it possible that he is betting on midseason deals getting us bigger returns on some of these guys?

If I thought that Garza had a good chance to put up a 4-ish ERA for the first half of 2017 and stay reasonably healthy, I'd keep him knowing you'll get a way better deal from a team desperate for pitching help midseason.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#66

Posted: May 08, 2017, 2:21 PM Post
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Greenleaf1 said:
If I thought that Garza had a good chance to put up a 4-ish ERA for the first half of 2017 and stay reasonably healthy, I'd keep him knowing you'll get a way better deal from a team desperate for pitching help midseason.


Not to mention then you can really sell a team on that $5mil option which may have been difficult after a tough 2016.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#67

Posted: May 08, 2017, 3:22 PM Post
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Greenleaf1 said:
I have to say I was kinda disappointed in the lack of deals made by Stearns during the offseason, but is it possible that he is betting on midseason deals getting us bigger returns on some of these guys?

If I thought that Garza had a good chance to put up a 4-ish ERA for the first half of 2017 and stay reasonably healthy, I'd keep him knowing you'll get a way better deal from a team desperate for pitching help midseason.


Offseason deals are tougher because GMs are all set at a position, or convince themselves they are.

Put yourself in their shoes. Would YOU have really given up any prospects of significance for Garza, Peralta, Nelson, or Anderson after the seasons they had? Or would you say we'll give Joe Blow, our AAAA starter a chance. That's basically what happened, I think.

Now add to that how many teams not knowing if they would be a contender or not. Why give up prospects for a Peralta or Garza when you don't even know yet how the season is going to shake out? That's why, in general, it's easier to get a deal done mid-season. GMs have a much better idea if they're a contender, and what they need. Plus, they aren't above the emotion involved with a playoff chase.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#68

Posted: May 09, 2017, 9:24 AM Post
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Add Trevor Cahill who's making $1.75 million this year to the list of guys who could be more attractive to teams than Garza.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#69

Posted: May 10, 2017, 9:07 AM Post
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I don't see us exercising the option on Garza to be a place holder, and presumably we need to settle on viable potential candidates for next year which could be a fairly interesting year based on how well the team is doing so far. So under that guideline Garza does not have a lot of long term value to us. Certainly right now he's providing solid value in not tanking games and allowing players to avoid the general ill-will of a complete tank.

Starting pitching is always in demand at the deadline and assuming Garza continues to pitch at atleast a league average rate he will have a decent trade value. Not a franchise altering prospect, unless you go super young lottery ticket type. Still value though in some fashion. With any luck players similar to Broxton, Pina, or Shaw who did not seem to have a ton of value but are contributing at a pretty high level.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#70

Posted: May 10, 2017, 4:53 PM Post
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The Red Sox have shown they are willing to trade with the Brewers and did before the trade deadline last year with Hill. Considering they are trotting Kyle Kendrick out there and falling further and further behind the Orioles and Yankees, it would be an upgrade to obtain Garza and they could obtain him sooner rather than later if they want.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#71

Posted: May 10, 2017, 5:18 PM Post
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I think you move Matt if he continues pitching well as he is not going to be part of the rebuild


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#72

Posted: May 14, 2017, 7:10 AM Post
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Greenleaf1 said:
I have to say I was kinda disappointed in the lack of deals made by Stearns during the offseason, but is it possible that he is betting on midseason deals getting us bigger returns on some of these guys?

If I thought that Garza had a good chance to put up a 4-ish ERA for the first half of 2017 and stay reasonably healthy, I'd keep him knowing you'll get a way better deal from a team desperate for pitching help midseason.

Melvin always said that in-season is the better time to trade pitching and off-season is the better time to trade position players. As others have mentioned, by mid-July Garza will essentially have 1.5 years and $10M left on his contract, which is very reasonable.

One of the X-factors is the Giants, if they continue to struggle they have Matt Moore to dangle, and he has very reasonable team options with cheap or no buyouts for the next two seasons. Matt Cain is a shell of his former self, hasn't been healthy since 2013, and has a $21M salary this season and next with a $7.5M buyout for next season. I'd think that Garza would be more attractive than Cain. Samardzija has 3/$59M left on his deal; depends on how much of that the Giants would be willing to eat. But the Giants could flood the market with starters and not ask for much other than salary relief in return.


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Online  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#73

Posted: May 14, 2017, 7:19 AM Post
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The Mariners pitching staff can't stay healthy. Could Garza be a fit there?


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#74

Posted: May 14, 2017, 8:30 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
If Garza keeps pitching like he has pitched so far he'll potentially be a fit for about 50% of the league in July. Fastball velocity at 92, xFIP at 3.57, nothing all that scary that I see in any of the peripherals, and he's pitched in the AL East which doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me but some people still seem to swoon over that fact.

Personally I'd be surprised if he keeps up these numbers but if he does he'll should get a pretty decent return. Top 100 prospect could be a stretch but not at all unrealistic to think he could get a couple "top 10 organizational prospects" (meaning two players in the 101-300 overall range) back if he maintains this pace into July.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#75

Posted: May 14, 2017, 11:49 AM Post
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JosephC said:
If Garza keeps pitching like he has pitched so far he'll potentially be a fit for about 50% of the league in July. Fastball velocity at 92, xFIP at 3.57, nothing all that scary that I see in any of the peripherals, and he's pitched in the AL East which doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me but some people still seem to swoon over that fact.

Personally I'd be surprised if he keeps up these numbers but if he does he'll should get a pretty decent return. Top 100 prospect could be a stretch but not at all unrealistic to think he could get a couple "top 10 organizational prospects" (meaning two players in the 101-300 overall range) back if he maintains this pace into July.


This is true. The longer he keeps looking a #3 the higher his return will be because that 5million option looks more and more worthwhile to pick up. He's still gotta keep toeing the rubber w/o injury. So theres a lot of time to pass before really getting excited about him.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#76

Posted: May 14, 2017, 2:23 PM Post
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I would have kissed Stearns if he could have gotten a C level prospect for him in the summer even kicking in the 12 million. Right now Garza doesn't look horrible which by some stretch of the imagination is a tiny miracle. He could be a more than decent asset come summertime.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#77

Posted: May 14, 2017, 5:14 PM Post
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I think he can get us back a mis level prospect.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#78

Posted: May 14, 2017, 6:09 PM Post
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Assuming Garza continues to perform, DS should be able to get "some value back". Some Value Back is the key phrase.

For me part of the value back is opportunity for others in the organization (ie Hader or Lopez) getting playing time in the majors & finishing off their development. It is looking like there will be many more SP on the trade market than anticipated in February so the return to the Brewers will likely be lesser than many want.

I think it is key for DS to realize that it will be better to get something (whether a mid level prospect or even a handful lower level prospect lottery tickets) than not making a deal and possibly losing the development opportunity for Hader/ Lopez.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#79

Posted: May 15, 2017, 3:35 PM Post
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If Garza can pitch close to how he's pitching now until July, I hate to admit it but I think the return for him could be pretty good.

I'm not ready to say he can do that yet, been burned by him too many times, but Garza has looked, dare I say it, pretty good so far this year, and a relatively small money commitment for a year and a half of him could get us a couple mid level prospects.


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Offline  Re: Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
#80

Posted: May 18, 2017, 2:18 AM Post
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Greenleaf1 said:
If Garza can pitch close to how he's pitching now until July, I hate to admit it but I think the return for him could be pretty good.

I'm not ready to say he can do that yet, been burned by him too many times, but Garza has looked, dare I say it, pretty good so far this year, and a relatively small money commitment for a year and a half of him could get us a couple mid level prospects.


I wouldn't say I expected this by any means...didn't know what to expect. But I knew he was capable of this. This is a guy who's been a good pitcher throughout his career. Pitched his team to the WS when he was...what, 22, 23 years old? He always had good stuff. Has always been extremely aggressive and competitive. Never been a lazy guy who doesn't seem to keep himself in shape.

Of course his last two years in Milwaukee he was injured, threw 250 innings with a ERA over 5(though a FIP was half a run lower) and a whip over 1.5. Still, he was an extremely reliable guy prior to that with an ERA of 3.74 before that and was always kinda a bulldog. So this certainly isn't the craziest turnaround...and having a proven starter who you can bring back for just 5 million dollars next year certainly has to look enticing to a team like...say New York who has just nothing but question marks in their rotation(CC looks like he's on his last leg, Tanaka's elbow, Pineda always injured...the young horse who's name eludes me, but he's a guy in his early 20's and Montgomery is young as well). They have a deep farm system.....especially with young guys who may not be highly rated, but have huge upsides.

They have a few guys not ranked in their top 10 who throw in the upper 90's and have ace or elite reliever upside...even a guy like Dillon Tate. This seems to be the type of trade where we could get back 3 prospects who the team acquiring Garza doesn't project to be future contributors, but who could be lottery type players for us. I guess we'll see.


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