LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1, 2  [ 39 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan

Author Message
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#21

Posted: April 11, 2017, 2:59 PM Post
Posts: 1720
Without the DH we only by the most technical of terms do we have any chance. Which to say realistically we have none.

Too bad. This guy looks to be a game changer that we badly need.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#22

Posted: April 11, 2017, 4:22 PM Post
Posts: 3513
Well there are negatives and positives between AL and NL. AL the 33starts he gets, maybe 2-4 occur in NL parks and he can bat those same days. Then you can bat him at DH. NL every start except when made in an AL park he can bat that day. He'd also be a PH batter every game.

Now will his bat be DH worthy to play every game he doesn't start? On a daily he'd be max around 130 games of PAs. Which by a multiple of 4 would be 520 PAs.

With say 30NL starts and 3.3PAs a game you are looking at 100PAs. Add 130 PH PAs and now he's at 230PAs. If you manage him to not pitch at AL parks and bat him DH when @ AL games are involved, that for 2017 is 10games at 4PAs adds 40 or 270PAs.

Would that be enough? Does he need the 250PAs extra between the leagues? Wear and Tear. An AL team doesn't start him before every start of games. You are looking 120PAs less. I'd expect any team wouldn't leave him at DH as a batter the day before a Game Started. He gets injured during that game and you are left scrambling for a SP in under 12-20hours.

What's his desire? To Pitch and Hit in the same games? Or does he only want to focus on Pitching one game, and batting one game, never both in the same game? That would immediately put an answer what League would have the green light to try signing him.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#23

Posted: April 11, 2017, 7:12 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2027
The DH is optional in the American League, so he could hit on days he pitches in the AL if the team decided to forgo the DH. Similarly if he pitched for an NL team playing in an AL park they could decide to allow him to hit. I am assuming he will want to know the exact plans each potential suitor would have in terms of his projected use as a hitter in these scenarios. It will be interesting if any AL teams would commit to allowing him to hit on days he pitches. I assume most AL teams would still want to have use of their DH spot and encourage him to focus on pitching only on those days.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#24

Posted: April 12, 2017, 9:04 PM Post
Posts: 3005
Have we forgotten Brooks Kieschnick? The Brewers made a two-way player work in 2003-2004. Otani wouldn't be much different in general terms.

For instance, Otani could be in the rotation as a starter and play first base the other days. The DH is always an option for AL parks. Pinch-hitting is a plan, too.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#25

Posted: April 12, 2017, 9:55 PM Post
Posts: 6129
Location: Kenosha, WI
Teams are going to let him do whatever he wants. They will get to add him for nothing. If he insists on batting everyday they will let him do it. There is literally no risk when it comes to him. If he flames out you dump him losing nothing. Now if he could sign for big bucks then it is a totally different story.

If we can go out and sign this dude for $5mil and have full control the Brewers would let him do whatever he wants. Pitch? Play first? Be 1st base coach? I will put down that $5mil easy and give him a shot.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#26

Posted: April 13, 2017, 5:56 PM Post
Posts: 401
Location: Madison, WI
I have to disagree. If Otani gets to the majors, is consistently hitting 100 MPH on the radar gun and goes through about 10 starts and is mowing down MLB hitters then his day of taking regular at-bats will be a thing of the past. If the team that has him thinks he is a legitimate ace pitcher there is no way they will expose him to injury on his pitching off days (hit by pitch, foul ball off his leg, injured running the bases). They will also immediately worry about how batting on all those non-pitching days early in the season will affect his mound performance later in the year. It seems like MLB teams get more and more careful with starting pitchers with each season, it's pretty easy to envision 6 man rotations being the normal 15 years down the road. I just don't see any team allowing an ace pitcher to be a regular lineup player on his non-pitching days.

But of course every team that offers him a deal will tell him whatever line of crap they think he wants to hear.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#27

Posted: April 13, 2017, 6:17 PM Post
Posts: 6129
Location: Kenosha, WI
JosephC said:
But of course every team that offers him a deal will tell him whatever line of crap they think he wants to hear.


Disagree. A team is not going to promise him a lot of PAs and then cut them off because he is pitching too good. If they have that idea they would tell him up front what their plan is. We are talking about a guy who is considering coming over here to play for pennies. Pull that kind of stuff and he will just leave, good luck getting another Japanese player, and have fun with FAs for awhile.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#28

Posted: April 13, 2017, 8:33 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 6085
MrTPlush said:
JosephC said:
But of course every team that offers him a deal will tell him whatever line of crap they think he wants to hear.


Disagree. A team is not going to promise him a lot of PAs and then cut them off because he is pitching too good. If they have that idea they would tell him up front what their plan is. We are talking about a guy who is considering coming over here to play for pennies. Pull that kind of stuff and he will just leave, good luck getting another Japanese player, and have fun with FAs for awhile.


Joe is probably right. I highly doubt any team is going to actually allow him to get anywhere near regular at bats if he is a halfway decent pitcher. Pitchers coming from Japan have had a much higher success rate than hitters. Hideki Matsui and Ichiro are the only ones I can think of that were anywhere near the hitter they were in Japan and both had major drop offs in power and OBP. Now bring over a guy who's team is probably going to have him focus mostly on pitching and who knows what kind of a drop off you get. If he's a sub .750 OPS hitter, is that worth the injury risk?

I'd love to see someone give him a chance and I would pull hard for him to succeed but I really doubt anyone will give him a fair chance.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#29

Posted: April 13, 2017, 8:48 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5195
If he's smart, he'll put it in his contract about getting at bats. And if a team won't he can always just stay playing where he is.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#30

Posted: April 13, 2017, 8:56 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2027
I realize the odds of acquiring Otani remain small, but the Brewers have just traded Magnifico for $885,300 in International bonus money, raising their total spending allotment to $6,135,300. It would appear that continuing this trend of trading for additional International bonus money would at least present an opportunity to offer the highest signing bonus to Otani (assuming they don't sign the other International players they have been connected to).

EDIT: The $885,300 is apparently for the current signing period, so expires on June 15th and next year's bonus pool is still at $5.25 million. Still, trading for International bonus pool money would be appear to be a necessary option for whatever teams make an attempt to sign Otani.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#31

Posted: April 13, 2017, 8:57 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 6085
Brew4U said:
If he's smart, he'll put it in his contract about getting at bats. And if a team won't he can always just stay playing where he is.


I would guess that's not allowed. If it were, every 4A guy would want something similar in their contract.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#32

Posted: April 13, 2017, 9:17 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2027
Taking a closer look at the current International signing bonus rules, any team can trade for up to 75% of their initial International bonus pool. This means the Brewers could acquire enough International signing bonus money via trade to have a total pool amount that would top out at $9,187,500.

There are only five teams that could potentially trade for a larger pool at this point... D'backs, Indians, Rockies, Pirates, Orioles. Those teams all have an initial bonus pool of $5.75 million without any restrictions from going over their allotment during the previous International signing period.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#33

Posted: April 13, 2017, 9:42 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 312
What is the motivation for other teams to deal those slots Eye Black?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#34

Posted: April 13, 2017, 9:53 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2027
MilwaukeeBeers said:
What is the motivation for other teams to deal those slots Eye Black?

There are 11 teams that can't sign any International player for more than $300,000 because of exceeding their allotments previously. Those teams could either use their pools to sign a whole bunch of players under $300K, or they could trade portions of their bonus pool for other assets such as prospects or major league players. Otherwise a team like the Orioles doesn't typically spend money in Latin America, so they may be willing to trade away bonus pool money for the same type of trade returns.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#35

Posted: April 13, 2017, 11:27 PM Post
Posts: 6129
Location: Kenosha, WI
Not saying a team would want him getting a ton of at-bats if he is a decent pitcher. That being said you aren't going to BS him and lie acting like you are. You would tell him that straight up from the beginning. He would likely go to a team promising him both regardless.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#36

Posted: April 14, 2017, 10:37 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 822
From Keith Law's chat yesterday, he's not a believer in Otani's bat.

Ricky: If/When Otani comes over, is he viewed as a two way player?
Keith Law: Nope. This is going to be the most-asked question of 2017, I think. NPB pitching is not close to MLB pitching as a whole.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#37

Posted: April 14, 2017, 6:11 PM Post
Posts: 3513
If Otani is playing out his season this year, is he positively going to sign after the season and be for this signing period? Or will he be for 2018 signing period? How auick can MLB add him to this signing period? I guess how late is their season over there?

With so many teams restricted to 300k wouldnt considering to wait to 2018 signing period comes? Of course depends who incurs penalties this yyear if thats possible? He'll know how majority of this shakes out end of July.

You also have to consider is a team going to sit out without knowing Otani is becoming available to sign later in year/early next? Id assume teams go through with their targets. Come August, November, whatever month Otani is freed to sign this period, what money are majority of teams going to have left? And if a team doesnt sign anyone, and then while having 5mil to spend on Otani, get shot down by Otani and get left with 0signings and 5mil on the table wasted?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#38

Posted: April 14, 2017, 6:35 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 610
http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2081.html
Looks like their season runs the same time ours does which means he would be available late October/early november.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Shohei Otani - Crowdsourcing the Brewers Plan
#39

Posted: April 14, 2017, 8:15 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2027
brewcrewdue80 said:
With so many teams restricted to 300k wouldnt considering to wait to 2018 signing period comes? Of course depends who incurs penalties this yyear if thats possible? He'll know how majority of this shakes out end of July.

If I have read this all correctly, the 2017-18 and 2018-19 International signing periods should be the last time we see penalties restricting teams to $300,000 max signings (as the remaining penalty to teams that went over their bonus pools in 2015-16 or 2016-17). With the new CBA the International bonus pools will now have a hard cap, so teams won't be able to exceed the value of their allotted pool beginning in 2017-18.

I found the information at this LINK helpful, at least the notes that outlined the changes for 2017-18.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2  [ 39 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: SandyTolan, Surhoff5 and 5 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test