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What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: June 02, 2017, 3:41 PM Post
Posts: 7554
Location: Kenosha, WI
adambr2 said:
I wonder if a team like the Rockies would 'block' the Dodgers to avoid them putting in a claim, assuming he'd turn down coming to Colorado.

That would be very risky, though. Maybe too risky.


I mentioned this last year when August was rolling around. To be honest if it didn't happen last year when his value was exponentially more than it is now I really doubt any team would consider it now. It wouldn't surprise me if a team did...but what if Braun suddenly wants to go to a contender? No one wants that contract and I don't think a team wants to risk that at all.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: June 02, 2017, 10:27 PM Post
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If it's not the Dodgers, it will be an AL team that he gets moved to. At this point, DH is his best position.


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Online  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: June 03, 2017, 12:50 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
adambr2 said:
I wonder if a team like the Rockies would 'block' the Dodgers to avoid them putting in a claim, assuming he'd turn down coming to Colorado.

That would be very risky, though. Maybe too risky.


I mentioned this last year when August was rolling around. To be honest if it didn't happen last year when his value was exponentially more than it is now I really doubt any team would consider it now. It wouldn't surprise me if a team did...but what if Braun suddenly wants to go to a contender? No one wants that contract and I don't think a team wants to risk that at all.

Only chance i can see Braun ever being traded is

1. A contender wants him

2. It's a city he wants to live and play in

3. The Brewers eat some of his contract given Braun's injury history

Eat say a 1/3 or 1/2 of the money and it mitigates his health concerns.

Given the low payroll, Attanasio can afford to eat some of that contract and whoever would replace Braun would be an OF from the minors who makes pocket change.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: September 08, 2017, 1:49 PM Post
Posts: 12540
As much as Scooter gets brought up for his waive back in April, I thought the no-trade last August over a year later is worth a retrospective look.

Braun has a 1.2 fWAR and .831 OPS this year.

Puig has a 2.3 fWAR, mostly from superior defensive skills, but he does have similar slugging numbers to Braun and has remained healthy.

McCarthy has not, he has similar injury struggles as Garza and is on the DL. He however has a 3.84 ERA and 3.33 FIP in 16 starts this year. He would have been a much better version of Garza this year, who comparably has a 5.06 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 22 starts.

I don't know who the two prospects would have been, I'm guessing somewhere in the 15-20 organizational prospect range for the Dodgers.

Puig/McCarthy would have been a respectable get for Braun regardless of the two prospects included.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: September 11, 2017, 1:45 AM Post
Posts: 338
Amazing what a few months does.

adambr-Really couldn't have nailed this one any more. I also thought they should make the trade but wasn't that disappointed about it.
If an offer with Puig, McCarthy, and even two 10-15 organizational prospects was in play, I think Stearns is probably kicking himself a bit. Now there's a chance that Braun repeats his 2016 and all of this is a option again next year, but now we've got 10/5 rights to deal with.


Again adambr
If Stearns got offered Bellinger for Braun straight up tonight, with no salary going to LA, he'd take about 3 seconds to accept and party in the streets of Milwaukee tonight.



Bellinger alone will never put up the stats Braun has or will moving forward.

Braun at first base in 2019 and 2020 would put up better stats than Bellinger at first base during that same time frame when the Brewers are to compete. Keep Braun then if your going to get robbed.


As for the last two, definitely not trying to call out anyone here. Not sure if I'd have been a fan of just getting Bellinger back(I will admit to not being as well versed in other teams prospects the last few years). But...at this point if Braun has another year better than Bellinger I'd be happy. Add to the fact that they're saying Bellinger is a GG caliber defender at 1st base....


I guess this is what happens when you get the guy who built the Devil Rays/Rays into a perennial contender with the lowest payroll in the league and then goes to a team that spent 360 million dollars on players just a few years ago.


Again, not trying to embarrass anyone...I thought that Justin Harrell was a good pick by Ted Thompson and still believed 3 years after...so people get things wrong. More of a proverbial tip of the cap to adambr.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: December 17, 2017, 11:57 AM Post
Posts: 898
Location: Madison, WI
Welcome back my friends to the thread that never ends.

Oddly enough, after thinking there would never be a decent trade match for Braun, all of a sudden there possibly is one. And with the Dodgers no less.

Bellinger now appears to be an everyday first baseman with Gonzalez out of the picture.

The Dodgers could stick Verdugo in the starting lineup but he only OPS'ed .544 in a brief major league appearance last year so I'm guessing the Dodgers won't hand him an everday outfield spot. Chris Taylor did a great job for them last year but considering his history (.598 OPS heading into 2017) it's probably unlikely the Dodgers hand him the left field spot. Andrew Toles is coming off a knee injury. Left field appears to be open.

And the Dodgers have the one, big stinky high-salaried WAR black hole that can offset Braun's negative surplus value. Matt Kemp.

Sticky point from the Brewer's end is that the Dodgers agreed to pay 3.5 million of Kemp's salary in 2018 and 2019 when they traded him in 2014. For a swap to make sense from the Dodger's luxury tax persepective, the Brewers would likely have to pay 3.5 million of Braun's salary in 2018 and 2019.

Taking the average WAR value between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, Kemp was a negative WAR player in 2017 and from 2015-2017. He is going to be paid 43 million in 2018 and 2019, then subtract out what the Dodgers are paying him and he carries an undisputed -36 million in surplus value. I'm not going to go through all the numbers, at worst Braun would probably run around a -32 surplus value which would be decreased to -25 million if the Brewers kick in 7 million. And that is at worst. More than likely to even up this trade the Dodgers would have to throw in about 15 million in prospect surplus value.

I'd guess something like this:

Dodgers get:
OF-Ryan Braun
7 million (Brewers pay 3.5 million of Braun's salary in 2018 and 2019)

Brewers get:
OF-Matt Kemp (Dodgers already on the hook for 3.5 million of Kemp's salary in 2018 and 2019)
OF-DJ Peters (Dodgers #8 prospect according to Baseball America)
RHP-Dustin May

Why it makes sense for the Brewers:
-They get two prospects out of the deal.
-Kemp is only under contract for 2 more years but Braun is under contract for 3 more years. While the Brewers pay slightly more in 2018 and 2019, they are clear of Braun's 16 million dollar salary in 2020 and the 4 million dollar buyout in 2021.

Why it doesn't make sense for the Brewers:
-Matt Kemp figures to be a bad ballplayer in 2018 and 2019.
-The owner needs to be convinced that paying Braun 3.5 million in 2018 and 2019 when playing for a different team is a good idea.

Why it makes sense for the Dodgers:
-They replace a negative WAR player with one who should be a positive WAR player, and if he stays healthy would be a pretty good bet to be a +2.0 WAR player or better.
-It's not a massive savings, but they would knock down the luxury tax number by 2.5 million 2018 and 3.5 million in 2019.
-They make the improvements without surrendering any of their top tier minor league talent.

Why it doesn't make sense for the Dodgers:
-The 2020 season when they would owe Braun 16 million.
-They would likely then be forever stuck with Braun. Obviously he would no longer be a 10/5 rights player but would think it obvious that Braun would demand full no-trade protection going forward if he were to approve this trade.

Not sure how I feel about this. On one hand it would be great to be free and clear of all these big salaries in 2020 which could actually be a pretty big deal considering how much many of the arbitration eligible players will be making during that season. On the other hand, having a 21.5 million dollar player riding the bench in a small market is a fairly sickening thought. But I do think it would be a fair deal that makes sense for both sides.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: December 17, 2017, 11:59 AM Post
Posts: 12540
I think the whole purpose of the Dodgers' latest trade was to get them under the luxury tax threshold, so I don't think a deal for Braun putting them right back in the penalty will interest them.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: December 17, 2017, 12:15 PM Post
Posts: 898
Location: Madison, WI
I forgot when calculating the luxury tax values that MLB takes the average annual value of the contract. Braun's annual average is 1 million higher than Kemp's (21 million versus 20 million). So I'm assuming the Brewers would have to pay 4.5 million of Braun's contract in 2018 and 2019 just to even them out. Not sure if the proposed deal makes sense without any luxury tax benefit for Los Angeles. Milwaukee might likely have to throw in even more money and then get another fringe prospect or two back to make it work.

I've known for awhile that Braun's contract is pretty horrible, but not being able to work out a suitable trade when it basically involves eating a 43 million dollar contract makes me think it's even worse than I had previously thought. How pitiful is that?


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: December 17, 2017, 1:03 PM Post
Posts: 4022
Verdugo is to well a thought of prospect to think the Dodgers would attempt to move away from for Braun.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: December 17, 2017, 1:51 PM Post
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Posts: 4955
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Not sure if a Braun for Kemp trade would make sense as the Dodgers are only saving about $2m on that deal and they are probably looking to shed more salary than that especially long term.

Maybe just doing a Kemp plus prospects would be something the Brewers need to look into. The Dodgers are looking into trading Kemp plus prospects to a team that is willing to take on some or all of his salary. For all of Kemp's salary I would gladly take Buehler from them but I don't think the Dodgers are looking to do that. Maybe something like take on about half of Kemp's salary and get Lux, Yadier Alvarez, and Oaks. The Brewers could then just release Kemp after acquiring him no need to keep him.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: December 17, 2017, 11:44 PM Post
Posts: 367
The only reason to trade Braun is to make room for the up and coming OFs. This does not really solve that (except in 2020). Kemp is far worse of a player than Braun (especially defensively). I dont think the Brewers would bench Kemp. Even with prospects, I just don't see the Brewers making that trade.

Braun is still a good hitter, better than either Phillips and Brinson will likely be in 2018. And those two will get their opportunities when he goes down for is annual injury.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: December 18, 2017, 3:17 AM Post
Posts: 1490
Can we just eat kemp and get paid in prospects for doing so. I'll throw in drake. We got buying power, remember?


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: December 18, 2017, 7:24 AM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
ClosetBrewerFan said:
The only reason to trade Braun is to make room for the up and coming OFs. This does not really solve that (except in 2020). Kemp is far worse of a player than Braun (especially defensively). I dont think the Brewers would bench Kemp. Even with prospects, I just don't see the Brewers making that trade.

Braun is still a good hitter, better than either Phillips and Brinson will likely be in 2018. And those two will get their opportunities when he goes down for is annual injury.


The plan would be to release Kemp not keep him.


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